Not showing the daily death tally today. The extra 3000 or so in NY hit today and makes the chart look stupid.
Daily Charts
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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Not showing the daily death tally today. The extra 3000 or so in NY hit today and makes the chart look stupid.
It really does. Apparently its 3778 extra since March 11 so I plan to manually distribute those out in a proportional basis across all of those days to solve that problem.
My latest plot dump. Side note, I'm in the process of removing China from all of my plots. At this point with so much data from elsewhere, their bad data is no longer worth anything in my mind
I added a lot of information to this next one. Basically for each assumed infection curve I said, if we assume the first cases in the US were 1/19/20 and there were 15 initial cases, what would the R0 be if you assumed perfect exponential growth from that point through that last calculated infection number that's based on real data. i then used that R0 to calculate a death estimate for that CFR had we just let it ride up until herd immunity (1-1/R0). All of this info is in the legend. The projected final infection numbers are based on the curves continuing to bend over since we didn't just let this run.
I added a lot of information to this next one. Basically for each assumed infection curve I said, if we assume the first cases in the US were 1/19/20 and there were 15 initial cases, what would the R0 be if you assumed perfect exponential growth from that point through that last calculated infection number that's based on real data. i then used that R0 to calculate a death estimate for that CFR had we just let it ride up until herd immunity (1-1/R0). All of this info is in the legend. The projected final infection numbers are based on the curves continuing to bend over since we didn't just let this run.
Yes, if you're a small first world island nation at the bottom of the world with no global centers of commerce and very tight border controls, you can get away with that.
Don't click on that embedded New Zealand tweet. Reading that thread will give you AIDS.
any new updates or are the numbers so low that it's not worth it?
Have you stopped plotting the data?
Legit sad that today's reported death total in the US is higher than last Tuesday. I was really hoping that we'd begin the tapering of the death total this week.
HotardAg07 said:
Legit sad that today's reported death total in the US is higher than last Tuesday. I was really hoping that we'd begin the tapering of the death total this week.
You can't look at it that way. The people that died today all got the disease on different days. The number of cases have been going down, which means deaths will follow.
I understand, and I know that deaths can lag being a confirmed case by 2-3 weeks. I was just hopeful that today would be the day we'd see lower death totals than the same day a week ago (due to the severe day-of-the-week factors in reporting).
Next Tuesday or the following it should be down substantiallyHotardAg07 said:
I understand, and I know that deaths can lag being a confirmed case by 2-3 weeks. I was just hopeful that today would be the day we'd see lower death totals than the same day a week ago (due to the severe day-of-the-week factors in reporting).
Is there data somewhere that shows where the cases/deaths are originating from?
For example the deaths on 4/17 were at about 37,000. On that day 7,000 were in/from Nursing Homes. That's 19% of all deaths. Is there data out there that shows how people originally got it?
1) Nursing Home
2) Homeless Shelter
3) Military, Police, etc.
4) Work
5) School
6) etc
For example the deaths on 4/17 were at about 37,000. On that day 7,000 were in/from Nursing Homes. That's 19% of all deaths. Is there data out there that shows how people originally got it?
1) Nursing Home
2) Homeless Shelter
3) Military, Police, etc.
4) Work
5) School
6) etc
Damn.
So what States drove the increase?
Keegan99 said:
So what States drove the increase?
NY, NJ and Michigan is still a giant chunk of it, at first glance, about 70%. I read that MA is now getting hit pretty badly.
sbs said:
Have you stopped plotting the data?
I'll post an update tomorrow. Needed a mental break from the data.
Walked out before the weekend with no one here in ICU for Covid. Walked back in yesterday to *many* on vents.
Anecdotally, we have a NH and assisted living facility here that are slamming our hospital over the last week. We've had some deaths over the last few days. Very sad, especially the assisted living folks who had some real quality of life and likely had many years left.
Most of our younger folks are staying a week-ish and doing fine.
Anecdotally, we have a NH and assisted living facility here that are slamming our hospital over the last week. We've had some deaths over the last few days. Very sad, especially the assisted living folks who had some real quality of life and likely had many years left.
Most of our younger folks are staying a week-ish and doing fine.
We have to make China pay for all the death and destruction they have caused. Your report hurts my heart for these people.
Just finished re-doing my plots and spreadsheet so that most of the data is now automatically linked and formatted to make updating these a faster process. here is a dump of all my plots in what is hopefully a sensical order. a couple of notes:
-I dropped china and their worthless data
-for global death forecasting, that indicated peak date and death rate are just my choices in fitting the curve and are based on nothing more than they made the curves fit well. I indicated them though so you know what assumptions go with that forecast.
-For the multi country plots, I'm trying to keep anyone with over 0.1% of the country infected.
-I dropped china and their worthless data
-for global death forecasting, that indicated peak date and death rate are just my choices in fitting the curve and are based on nothing more than they made the curves fit well. I indicated them though so you know what assumptions go with that forecast.
-For the multi country plots, I'm trying to keep anyone with over 0.1% of the country infected.
Smeared the 3000+ in one day across previous 20.
At this point, I don't find much value in comparing the current data to predictions. Never trusted the trend-lines beyond 50% infected.
Wow, impressive
Did a new assumed CFR plot this morning using just NYC as the case study population
points to roughly 0.2% as the lowest the CFR could physically be
points to roughly 0.2% as the lowest the CFR could physically be
Safe to say we have flattened the curve. Very impressive! Now to start opening stuff up & continue ramping up testing PCR & Titers.Philip J Fry said:
Smeared the 3000+ in one day across previous 20.
At this point, I don't find much value in comparing the current data to predictions. Never trusted the trend-lines beyond 50% infected.
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Saw that we had 311k+ tests nationwide yesterday.
And that's a floor since plenty of sources don't always report all negatives.
And that's a floor since plenty of sources don't always report all negatives.
Keegan,Keegan99 said:
Saw that we had 311k+ tests nationwide yesterday.
And that's a floor since plenty of sources don't always report all negatives.
It was because California dumped a batch of negative test reports from over a long period. The second time they've done that. It's not a floor.
Darn.
Still wondering when the impact of the Abbott tests and other non-lab tests will start to show up.
Still wondering when the impact of the Abbott tests and other non-lab tests will start to show up.
updated the big plot using the new antibody data coming out of NYC showing infected range in the 10-20% range
Sorry to hear this. Where are you located Moxley?
I was really curious about what states were increasing the death totals to offset the decreases we've seen in our most deadly state, NY. I made this graph, which tracks the % of increases on a weekly basis of the top 15 most populated states. I did it weekly to try to remove day-of-the-week reporting noise. I also took the NY likely deaths out of the numbers for consistency in comparison.
Basically, seems like while all states have slowed down the rate of increases of death in their state, PA, MA, NC, and VA have the fastest increases in death. NC and VA does not have many deaths to increase upon (<500), but that is not the case in PA or MA which are 1,700+
The graph does highlight the good job that NY and WA has done to slow things down.
Basically, seems like while all states have slowed down the rate of increases of death in their state, PA, MA, NC, and VA have the fastest increases in death. NC and VA does not have many deaths to increase upon (<500), but that is not the case in PA or MA which are 1,700+
The graph does highlight the good job that NY and WA has done to slow things down.
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