I would think Italy would have the tightest Stay at Home rules in the world, no? So how are they still getting 4,000 new infections per day?
I don't know the real explanation but my guess is that it still spreads because it is not possible for all humans to eliminate contact with other humans. People still work in critical jobs, with their coworkers, and at times interacting with the public. The public still needs food, some medical care, etc. New cases are almost down by half from their peak, but only 0.25% of Italian population has tested positive. Even if the actual number of those who had it is 20 times higher, that's still only 5% of the population - it's going to keep spreading slowly. I consider the slow down a positive, hopefully the health care system can keep up.Aust Ag said:
I would think Italy would have the tightest Stay at Home rules in the world, no? So how are they still getting 4,000 new infections per day?
Death is roughly 14 days from first symptoms but has a large variance. Likely 10-30 days.Section327Ag said:
Of the countries charted here, Portugal has the most impressive 'bend' in their curve. U.S. is probably 50% of where the trend line was headed 3 weeks ago. Although I've seen data on the average incubation period of 5 days from exposure to symptoms, I haven't seen the data on the average time between exposure and death so it isn't clear to me what the lag time is between exposure rate (impacted by social distancing and hygiene) and death rate (impacted by exposure rate and treatment efficacy) .
Philip J Fry said:
Yeah. I do it the same way for each state.
Which means:
1). The overall CFR is probably much lower than 1.7% since NY and Michigan are pushing 8%
Or
2) Those states that have a high CFR have a higher at risk population.
Oh, and China's numbers are clearly fabricated.
"Philip J Fry" said:
Overall CFR=1.70%. Time to open the country back up.
lockdowns make the growth rate linear or possibly parabolic instead of exponential.DadHammer said:
Maybe lockdowns can only do so much and are not effective after a few weeks?
Philip J Fry said:
Well, unfortunately....I made a mistake in the calc and it's a good 5% higher. The point is, if our CFR was 1.7 and places like Michigan and NY were at 8%, their numbers would have skewed the overall numbers. Which in a round about way means the CFR should still be substantially lower than what's being reported.
I'll leave my commentary to forum 16 on why the country should be functioning. I was on board with the 15 day thing, but man, we have to find a balance between health and economics.