Daily Charts

610,222 Views | 2786 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
Complete Idiot
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SirLurksALot said:

They run their projections through August 4th, but only assume social distancing until June. So they already have two months factored into the projections without any social distancing. Now, they could very well be wrong about the impacts without social distancing, but that remains to be seen.

Also they didn't just update the model to account for social distancing only going through May. It has been that way for at least the last two weeks.
They have an FAQ you could read and see that it specifically mentions the predictions are for the first wave only, no second wave/resurgence predictions.

In China they have lifted restrictions on activities but people are still not going out due to fear - not everyone, but a sizable percentage of the people. In the US, I expect the behavior would be the same - federal, state, or local government says all restaurants and businesses open tomorrow, no restrictions. It would not return to 100% of February behavior on day 1. That's just my comment, I don't think the IHME models take any of that into account.
Rachel 98
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HotardAg07 said:



I was disappointed to find out the link he shared was from a 5 days old article and he has posted no current data to support his claim. If true, would be interesting.


I'm not one bit surprised that he didn't post any supporting data. I deal with this guy quite a bit through my work and it would be hard for me to have a much lower opinion of him than I currently have. If I posted what I really though about the slimy things that he does I would probably catch my first TexAgs ban.
MBAR
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SirLurksALot said:

They run their projections through August 4th, but only assume social distancing until June. So they already have two months factored into the projections without any social distancing. Now, they could very well be wrong about the impacts without social distancing, but that remains to be seen.

Also they didn't just update the model to account for social distancing only going through May. It has been that way for at least the last two weeks.
They literally changed it TODAY. This is from yesterday.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200407193831/http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

I know what I'm talking about man. I have been following that model since it came out. I've read the initial paper. Please don't make things up that are easily provable wrong. Thanks.
Philip J Fry
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Unfortunately, the death curve is creeping back to the original line. Hopefully it doesn't creep back any more.


Fitch
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Given the broad geography of the US, and the variation in timing between peaks in different cities it wouldn't be shocking to see a "wobble" in the line.

But I agree with your sentiment.
Bruce Almighty
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The same thing happened in Italy where the rate bounced around for a few days before finally heading downward. Not everyone dies on the same day after getting the virus, so it going up and down should be expected. As long as there's not a giant spike, it's still positive.
SirLurksALot
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Complete Idiot said:

SirLurksALot said:

They run their projections through August 4th, but only assume social distancing until June. So they already have two months factored into the projections without any social distancing. Now, they could very well be wrong about the impacts without social distancing, but that remains to be seen.

Also they didn't just update the model to account for social distancing only going through May. It has been that way for at least the last two weeks.
They have an FAQ you could read and see that it specifically mentions the predictions are for the first wave only, no second wave/resurgence predictions.

In China they have lifted restrictions on activities but people are still not going out due to fear - not everyone, but a sizable percentage of the people. In the US, I expect the behavior would be the same - federal, state, or local government says all restaurants and businesses open tomorrow, no restrictions. It would not return to 100% of February behavior on day 1. That's just my comment, I don't think the IHME models take any of that into account.


Well, I never said anything about a second wave or a resurgence being included in the model. So you can stop with the snarky comment.

I don't know if you can compare the behavior in China to what will happen here. It's possible that significantly more people died in China than will here. The lockdown was also much harsher there. I could see how a lot of people could be traumatized after going though months of that.

Obviously on day 1 here everyone is not gonna rush out and crowd everything. There will be a progression. Some people may continue to live their lives in fear for awhile, but I don't think most will. Most people haven't been affected by the actual virus, only our response to it. I don't know if this was included in the model. My comment was just that the model does include a time period without social distancing measures in effect. We'll see if they are right.


BlackGoldAg2011
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I can't find all the comments I wanted to respond to so here is my response to all of them re: the death rate is wrong

I went and watched the full statement by Dr. Birx, and first, thank you for posting it, I had indeed missed it. However, if you look at was she is saying specifically, I don't think she is saying if a death has a positive test it gets counted as a COVID death. Obviously someone dying in a auto accident with COVID won't get recorded as COVID cause of death. If you look at the full CDC description you get further confirmation of that
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm][/url]https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
based on her wording and the CDC description I believe a fair characterization of the intent of what she said would be that we as a country are not downplaying the COVID deaths by attributing it to the "under lying condition" when there is one. the data backs this up as well, because if we were massively over identifying COVID deaths you would expect our CFR to be more towards the upper echelon of countries, not the lower group. additionally, if it was being so over identified that the data was completely unreliable, you also wouldn't be hearing stories from ER Drs of hospitals being nearly overwhelmed even with everything else shut down and deferred. Here's a section of an interview about her comments:
Quote:

Dr. Michael Baden, a Fox News contributor, said it's reasonable to include the death of someone infected with the virus, who also had other health issues, in the COVID-19 body count.
"In the normal course, autopsies would then determine whether the person died of the effects of the COVID virus, whether the person had a brain tumor or brain hemorrhage, for example, that might be unrelated to it and what the relative significance of both the infection and the pre-existing disease is," Baden told Fox News.

However, the number of autopsies being performed could be low due to the danger of infection, he said.

"Then you will include in those numbers some people who did have a pre-existing condition that would have caused death anyway, but that's probably a small number," Baden said.
not data or evidence in itself, just another viewpoint that coming from a forensic pathologist is more credential qualified than my own.

My takeaway is that the argument that we are over identifying deaths attributable to COVID has some merit. We probably are, and it may even be enough that it will make comparisons to other causes of death difficult when they are close. That said though, the number is not so inflated that it makes the data useless. Her statements, the CDC description, other interviews around her comments, and the data itself would all point to the conclusion, that the data is in the ballpark of the "correct" number, and is close enough to be useful for rough modeling and forecasting purposes. Which honestly is what everyone should expect with preliminary data anyways.


"All models are wrong but some are useful"
-George Box


now back to the charts
BlackGoldAg2011
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updated plots (also updated on page 1):







bones75
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If those charts show one certainty, it is that China's numbers are bs.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
PJYoung
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SmackDaddy
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Jet Black said:

My guess is there are multiple opinion posts on this thread, so why don't you relax.

The government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the virus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that may have contributed to the loss of someone's life.



Let's say you're getting cancer treatment when you get the flu. Previously, your odds of beating the cancer were pretty good with treatment. However, with a compromised immune system, you can't beat the flu and die.

Did cancer kill you, or the flu?


Let's say you're a diabetic who manages their insulin. You get CV19 and end up in the ICU. The CV19 is causing hypoxia that screws with your organs, causes complications with your diabetes, and you die.

Did your diabetes kill you, or CV19?


Did Freddie Mercury die of pneumonia or AIDS?
BlackGoldAg2011
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Freeze Frame said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Jet Black said:

My guess is there are multiple opinion posts on this thread, so why don't you relax.

The government is classifying the deaths of patients infected with the virus as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of any underlying health issues that may have contributed to the loss of someone's life.



Let's say you're getting cancer treatment when you get the flu. Previously, your odds of beating the cancer were pretty good with treatment. However, with a compromised immune system, you can't beat the flu and die.

Did cancer kill you, or the flu?


Let's say you're a diabetic who manages their insulin. You get CV19 and end up in the ICU. The CV19 is causing hypoxia that screws with your organs, causes complications with your diabetes, and you die.

Did your diabetes kill you, or CV19?


Did Freddie Mercury die of pneumonia or AIDS?
not quite apples to apples, as (unless my understanding is wrong), AIDs won't actually kill you by itself, always requiring a secondary illness to deal the final blow. this does however highlight the fact that "cause of death" is not always a simple thing to determine as so frequently there are multi contributing factors, and maybe none of them would have killed individually, at least not for a while. like in the diabetes example, the diabetes maybe would not have killed in the near term, but it's not necessarily clear if the COVID would have killed without the diabetes.
Rutedown
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Looked through some pages and didn't see. Has anyone been following Aggie David Tong?

https://www.facebook.com/100000259408294/posts/3099126196772663/?d=n
Philip J Fry
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Premium
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Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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We see the bend on daily infections on day 42-43 and the subsequent impact to deaths on 52-53. Thanks again for these charts, very cool.
KidDoc
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Wow it is really impressive how the social distancing is bending that curve. In a year or two it will be interesting to see the differences in outcomes in different countries with different policies.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
PJYoung
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Philip J Fry
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Premium said:

Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?


Looking that way to me. Much different outlook than we had about a week ago.
aginlakeway
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Premium said:

Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?
300-400 deaths in Texas would be AMAZINGLY low. And very good news.
PJYoung
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aginlakeway said:

Premium said:

Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?
300-400 deaths in Texas would be AMAZINGLY low. And very good news.

I would not be surprised if we had 30k deaths in the US from covid this year but only 400 deaths in Texas? I would be shocked.
aginlakeway
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PJYoung said:

aginlakeway said:

Premium said:

Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?
300-400 deaths in Texas would be AMAZINGLY low. And very good news.

I would not be surprised if we had 30k deaths in the US from covid this year but only 400 deaths in Texas? I would be shocked.
Agree. Shocked and very surprised.

Already 200 deaths in Texas. 1k deaths or more much more likely.
Philip J Fry
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I think technically speaking, our apex is to the right of NY, so it'll take some time to get there.

I've been pretty worried about this week and next week as a nation. We'll just have to see it play out.
aginlakeway
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Philip J Fry said:

I think technically speaking, our apex is to the right of NY, so it'll take some time to get there.

I've been pretty worried about this week and next week as a nation. We'll just have to see it play out.
Agree.

I'm in Travis County. We've shot up the last few days in cases. But just 7 deaths -- 6 were older than 70, 3 older than 80.
Philip J Fry
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When you look at the pure slope of Texas vs NY, it's still too similar for my liking. Thankfully we didn't have that ridiculously steep portion like they did.
Duncan Idaho
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I wonder how the feds backing off testing will impact the numbers.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-says-widespread-coronavirus-testing-would-never-happen-isnt-needed-reopen-country-1497210
TMfrisco
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Death is a lagging indicator. Absent an effective treatment/cure, we are in for 2-3 weeks of high death numbers after the confirmed cases start going down sharply.
We are consistently seeing around a 3% (3.5% as of yesterday's #s) death rate in "confirmed cases" and we are not even close to 14-21 days post the high daily case numbers.
If we don't see new confirmed cases really "fall of a cliff" soon, it is not unreasonable to expect 30-40K dead by the middle to end of May. If we have 1,000,000 "Confirmed Cases" it sure looks like we will see over 30K deaths
Ozzy Osbourne
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What's going on Houston? This is a chart of daily new cases, and the Houston metro had 816 new cases. I can't imagine this is all testing backlog.
PJYoung
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Ozzy Osbourne said:



What's going on Houston? This is a chart of daily new cases, and the Houston metro had 816 new cases. I can't imagine this is all testing backlog.

That are nearer the epicenter of New Orleans than the rest of Texas.

flown-the-coop
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That the heck is going on in SW Georgia?
74Ag1
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Ozzy Osbourne said:



What's going on Houston? This is a chart of daily new cases, and the Houston metro had 816 new cases. I can't imagine this is all testing backlog.

Backlog of tests not counted until yesterday:

"Officials said the influx of new cases is due to a delay in reporting. Half of the new cases reported Thursday were people who were tested in March, Turner said."

They said 615. 1/2 of 615 would be 308 that were in March

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/04/09/watch-live-mayor-turner-gives-update-on-coronavirus-response-in-houston/%3foutputType=amp
Sq 17
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two men died in early march of the Covid, and large numbers of their extended family caught Covid at the Funeral. Two counties have the 3rd 4th highest fatality rate per 100k in America
Philip J Fry
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Aust Ag
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aginlakeway said:

PJYoung said:

aginlakeway said:

Premium said:

Am I reading the chart correctly? It looks like the bend could take it to 300-400 deaths in Texas and 30-40K in the US?
300-400 deaths in Texas would be AMAZINGLY low. And very good news.

I would not be surprised if we had 30k deaths in the US from covid this year but only 400 deaths in Texas? I would be shocked.
Agree. Shocked and very surprised.

Already 200 deaths in Texas. 1k deaths or more much more likely.
And by 1K, you're talking by the EOY, right? Sad, but acceptable for sure.
 
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