Daily Charts

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RangerRick9211
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 11:18a, 4/7/20
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
Not to be a downer, but I hope that chart isn't just showing the limits of our testing capabilities. After all, we can't increase our testing exponentially forever, and I have no idea if testing is keeping pace with symptomatic people
Death test is pretty simple, right?



Unequivocally, deaths are bending nationally and we have enough data to calculate the lags. Sadly, it's easiest to visualize on a log scale, i.e. our plateau of cum deaths is still 8-10x from today.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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11:30a, 4/7/20
AG
Just a little lighter side for daily plots

https://xkcd.com/2289/
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Keegan99
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:36a, 4/7/20
AG
Have the new Italy charts?
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PJYoung
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In reply to Keegan99 • 12:15p, 4/7/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Have the new Italy charts?

Looking better all the time!



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Ozzy Osbourne
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1:09p, 4/7/20
What's going on Houston? Migration from New Orleans?

Here are the daily new cases by metro area:

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Keegan99
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In reply to Ozzy Osbourne • 1:11p, 4/7/20
AG
Testing backlog. A good number of those were from as long ago as mid-March, and have presumably already recovered.
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Fitch
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1:12p, 4/7/20
AG
European areas now being tracked on https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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Ozzy Osbourne
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In reply to Keegan99 • 1:20p, 4/7/20
Did Houston have a backlog that Dallas and Austin didn't have?
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Fitch • 1:21p, 4/7/20
AG
Fitch said:
European areas now being tracked on https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

does anyone know where this "healthdata.org" is sourcing their data from? i tried looking and couldn't find it on their page, but their daily death numbers for "actual data" seem to be higher than I am seeing reported elsewhere


i'm trying to build my own model and couldn't get a curve with a peak rate of anywhere near 3k deaths/day to fit the existing data so far and i realized that's because my death data to date is much lower than theirs. just trying to find the discrepancy.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Ozzy Osbourne • 1:35p, 4/7/20
AG
Evidently? That was the explanation given by officials yesterday, as I recall.
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joshpettett
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 2:01p, 4/7/20
AG
Unfortunately the death test isn't that simple either. Last I saw New York believes their daily reported COVID deaths are about 150-200 less than actual deaths. They used to test the dead they found in their homes after the fact, but have stopped that due to shortages.
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ETFan
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In reply to joshpettett • 2:03p, 4/7/20
Do you have a source for this? I believe you
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Federale01
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In reply to ETFan • 2:07p, 4/7/20
AG
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.amp.html
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joshpettett
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2:15p, 4/7/20
AG
that article, and Mark Levine's twitter threads
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to joshpettett • 2:19p, 4/7/20
AG
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Dddfff
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In reply to joshpettett • 2:26p, 4/7/20
AG
"We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.''

Calling bulsh
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flown-the-coop
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2:42p, 4/7/20
AG
Can test all celebrities, senators, congresspeople, Trump 4 times a day and a tiger. Can no longer test dead people. Hell, not even collecting a sample. Let's just go ahead and assume this dead guy with a rope around his neck or this lady with a hole in her head are COVID deaths.

Nice. Well played Mark Levine, whoever the hell that is.

Lord, just looked up that dumbarse Mark Levine. NYC counciman extraordinary who is claiming there will be temporarily internment of bodies in city parks. Flagged for #fakenews.
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RikkiTikkaTagem
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In reply to Ozzy Osbourne • 2:43p, 4/7/20
AG
Ozzy Osbourne said:
What's going on Houston? Migration from New Orleans?

Here are the daily new cases by metro area:



My friends in the ED community are saying this. They're seeing a lot of LA folks in Houston.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 2:56p, 4/7/20
AG
AgStuckinLBK said:
Ozzy Osbourne said:
What's going on Houston? Migration from New Orleans?

Here are the daily new cases by metro area:



My friends in the ED community are saying this. They're seeing a lot of LA folks in Houston.
Yep. And in Beaumont area.
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to aginlakeway • 3:03p, 4/7/20
AG
aginlakeway said:
AgStuckinLBK said:
Ozzy Osbourne said:
What's going on Houston? Migration from New Orleans?

Here are the daily new cases by metro area:

My friends in the ED community are saying this. They're seeing a lot of LA folks in Houston.
Yep. And in Beaumont area.

Per Turner's update yesterday,
Quote:
"As of today, there are 402 positive cases for the City of Houston, bringing the total number of cases to 1,145. However, Turner emphasized that the increase is not cause for alarm; approximately two-thirds of the cases are results they are receiving from tests that date back to mid-March."
https://www.tmc.edu/news/2020/04/coronavirus-connection-a-texas-medical-center-continuing-update/

It's batch testing lags, not LA.
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joshpettett
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 3:09p, 4/7/20
AG
flown-the-coop said:
Can test all celebrities, senators, congresspeople, Trump 4 times a day and a tiger. Can no longer test dead people. Hell, not even collecting a sample. Let's just go ahead and assume this dead guy with a rope around his neck or this lady with a hole in her head are COVID deaths.
All COVID numbers on John Hopkins or Worldometer are confirmed cases only. So the people who die in their homes do not show up in any numbers unless they are tested and postive.
After the fact I'm sure they will come out with estimated numbers, just like they dd with H1N1. Confirmed US deaths are about to pass the estimated H1N1 deaths from the entire 12 months of swine flu back in 2009.

Correction: just refreshed the worldometer stats and it has passed the total estimated deaths from H1N from 4/2009 - 4/2010
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to joshpettett • 3:13p, 4/7/20
AG
joshpettett said:

Correction: just refreshed the worldometer stats and it has passed the total estimated deaths from H1N from 4/2009 - 4/2010


The amount of people that get off on bragging about death counts is disturbing.
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ETFan
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 3:16p, 4/7/20
Old Buffalo said:
joshpettett said:

Correction: just refreshed the worldometer stats and it has passed the total estimated deaths from H1N from 4/2009 - 4/2010


The amount of people that get off on bragging about death counts is disturbing.
That you see this as bragging in a forum dedicated to discussing coronavirus is disturbing.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 3:17p, 4/7/20
He isn't bragging..

He is saying "hey you idiots, this isn't the flu. "
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Strongweasel97
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In reply to Old Buffalo • 3:58p, 4/7/20
AG
He's just referencing how the data was handled in our last major outbreak.
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PJYoung
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In reply to joshpettett • 4:04p, 4/7/20
AG
joshpettett said:
flown-the-coop said:
Can test all celebrities, senators, congresspeople, Trump 4 times a day and a tiger. Can no longer test dead people. Hell, not even collecting a sample. Let's just go ahead and assume this dead guy with a rope around his neck or this lady with a hole in her head are COVID deaths.
All COVID numbers on John Hopkins or Worldometer are confirmed cases only. So the people who die in their homes do not show up in any numbers unless they are tested and postive.
After the fact I'm sure they will come out with estimated numbers, just like they dd with H1N1. Confirmed US deaths are about to pass the estimated H1N1 deaths from the entire 12 months of swine flu back in 2009.

Correction: just refreshed the worldometer stats and it has passed the total estimated deaths from H1N from 4/2009 - 4/2010
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FrioAg 00
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4:06p, 4/7/20
AG
Friend of mine is a medical examiner for Harris County - they are seeing quite a few deaths at home due to COVID as well

Many were people probably chronically ill and likely to die at home anyway
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 5:11p, 4/7/20
AG
Not trying to be critical, but how are they determining this? Yep, she was coughing right before she died. Bag her up and mark it as COVID. Let's try and remember to update in a month when we get test results.

You mean you didn't swab? All hell, just say COVID and tell your friends so they can spread the word on Internet.
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RandyAg98
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 5:15p, 4/7/20
AG
flown-the-coop said:
Not trying to be critical, but how are they determining this? Yep, she was coughing right before she died. Bag her up and mark it as COVID. Let's try and remember to update in a month when we get test results.

You mean you didn't swab? All hell, just say COVID and tell your friends so they can spread the word on Internet.
THIS. I think they are defaulting to COVID for any respiratory cause of death without testing. Hell, even symptomatic people with classic signs who are able to get tested only test positive 10-20% of the time.
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Ozzy Osbourne
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5:18p, 4/7/20
People keep saying the death numbers are underreported, which in a sense is true, but if we go by the same standard as the flu, flu deaths are woefully underreported as well. If we find an 88 year old dead in his home, we don't give him a flu swab to get "accurate" flu death counts.
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PJYoung
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6:05p, 4/7/20
AG
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/03/covid-19s-death-toll-appears-higher-than-official-figures-suggest

For the month of March they tracked the total deaths in Italy compared to previous Marches, and the number of covid deaths might actually be double the current official total. Same for Spain.
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UTExan
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7:03p, 4/7/20
Latest figures I saw in the US indicate 12,000 deaths and 387,000 infected. Early days to get overall death rate.
It is better to light a flamethrower than to curse the darkness- Sir Terence Pratchett
“ III stooges si viveret et nos omnes ad quos etiam probabile est mittent custard pies”
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Esteban du Plantier
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7:23p, 4/7/20
AG
Watchlisted
.
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FrioAg 00
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 7:42p, 4/7/20
AG
flown-the-coop said:
Not trying to be critical, but how are they determining this? Yep, she was coughing right before she died. Bag her up and mark it as COVID. Let's try and remember to update in a month when we get test results.

You mean you didn't swab? All hell, just say COVID and tell your friends so they can spread the word on Internet.


We should absolutely be critical, there is a lot of bad data out there. I'll ask her about it, so far just passing on what she shared.

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AgsMyDude
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 7:50p, 4/7/20
AG
flown-the-coop said:
Not trying to be critical, but how are they determining this? Yep, she was coughing right before she died. Bag her up and mark it as COVID. Let's try and remember to update in a month when we get test results.

You mean you didn't swab? All hell, just say COVID and tell your friends so they can spread the word on Internet.


Or

They had all the symptoms but the ER said don't come back unless you need life support. We'll test you then.
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