I was thinking the same thing yesterday when looking at the daily totals. I thought I remembered last Sunday having a similar drop in numbers. I imagine this week will still be pretty rough on the death side of things since those numbers are a couple of weeks behind the total case numbers. Hopefully the case numbers are starting to plateau.PJYoung said:
Yeah the Sunday totals especially have been known to dip. And not just in this country.
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The economy likes certainty and uncertainty is devastating. I would never want a second lockdown in the case of another wave, but people and the economy get used to things. I don't think the second wave shut down would be anywhere near what this has done to the economy.
Yeah, I remember getting excited the last 3 Sundays only to see the numbers go back up over the week. Hopefully this is the week we see the good trends finally stick.
Sunday to Sunday numbers looked pretty good though
rally-cap said:Worldometer has had to adjust their numbers several times over the last few weeks. Countries and states have had issues reporting numbers, and so the reported numbers were off. I wouldn't be surprised if the difference in numbers is a reporting issue, or a timing issue. Worldometer works off GMT time, so every country's "day" is the same. So the covid19.healtdata may be working off of a more US centered timeline, which may cause a difference in day to day reporting numbers.AgLiving06 said:rally-cap said:
The https://covid19.healthdata.org/ projections just got updated, and things changed pretty drastically -
The projected US peak date stayed the same, but the projected bed needs were nearly cut in half. And the projected total death count came down to roughly 82,000.
The projected Texas peak date went from May 6 to April 19! And the projected bed needs went from roughly 20,000 total to just over 4000 total!
Hopefully these projections and trends continue to improve, and hopefully the real numbers follow suit.
This website is showing something very different for April 4th.
This site is saying that 1755 people died this day.
Worldometer is saying that 1330 died.
That's a pretty substantial difference.
I'm curious what they do for April 5th, since Worldometer shows an even lower death rate.
My numbers above are specific to the US.
Old Buffalo said:
Right, but it's still significantly different enough that it calls into question the validity/assumptions of the model itself. A projection of 1700 versus actual of 1300 is a significant margin of error. Additionally, the site predicted cumulative deaths of 10,500 yesterday and actual cumulative was around 9,500.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
That's the thing.
It's not a projection of 1700 deaths. They are calling it an actual vs the worldometer showing an actual of 1300.
Will be curious to see what revisions take place tomorrow (if any).
I mentioned a few pages back that my wife's hospital, MDA, expects the peak in 1-2 weeks and not early May.mike0305 said:
I see those numbers and I don't know what to believe.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/houston-hasn-t-reported-surge-coronavirus-cases-its-hospitals-tell-n1175291
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Texas-is-behind-the-curve-on-releasing-timely-15179104.php
Houston has been quiet, but then there's Lina Hidalgo being quoted that hospitals are the best count due to lack of testing, and that they are seeing their patients rise exponentially? With 1300 cases and 20% hospitalization rate that's ~250 in hospitals in Houston currently and we would have had our first people hitting the hospital a week ago.
Hope we dodge the bullet and the lack of news is really is due to lack of the cases here.
Anecdotally, the surge began last week in Houston for many hospitals according to our medical friends.
However, Harris county is sitting at a cumulative 35% utilization today. Here's a quick plot of available beds, ICU beds and utilization by our major hospitals in the county.
Just looking at Memorial's system, they're at 62% utilization today and account for 38% of total ICU beds in Harris. Data isn't granular enough to parse utilization by normal vs. ICU bed.
If you want to ping the data yourself: https://services7.arcgis.com/LXCny1HyhQCUSueu/arcgis/rest/services/Definitive_Healthcare_USA_Hospital_Beds/FeatureServer/0/query?where=1%3D1&outFields=*&outSR=4326&f=json
Source is Definitive Healthcare.
Italy new infections continue to look better.
Currently at 19,334 new cases as of 13:10 CDT (using worldometers.info/coronavirus). We'll pass yesterday's total but at this rate I doubt we'll increase over our daily record set on 4/4. Hoping that we're starting to see the effects of social distancing and stay-at-home orders.
My gut feeling tells me that our lack of public transportation use and overall low population density as a country (outlier being NYC) means we'll see this thing slow faster than Italy has.
My gut feeling tells me that our lack of public transportation use and overall low population density as a country (outlier being NYC) means we'll see this thing slow faster than Italy has.
I would think that we would do some or all of the following:Quote:
I still want to know how we adjust back into "normal" life. Without an established therapeutic the transition will be difficult to navigate.
- Continue to isolate the high-risk population
- Continue to practice social distancing (6' rule) in places of work and worship. This may mean staggering hours or limiting the population inside a building at any given time.
- Carefully re-open schools with strategies and schedules to promote social distancing and allow the cleaning of classrooms. Not all grades need to be at school at the same time.
- Expand the list of essential businesses to get more people back to work, while still limiting high risk businesses like restaurants and hospitality.
- Start to allow elective procedures to resume so that hospitals can start making money and keep healthcare workers employed.
- Monitor the country on a more micro level. Watch cities and communities for spikes and if those occur, tighten restrictions locally.
- Carefully re-open airports for domestic (U.S.) travel. Limit the number of occupants on airplanes (maybe only one person per row on each side of aisle). Limit the number of people at airports. Enforce social distancing at airports at TSA lines and gate seats. Getting flights to resume will help increase demand for oil and gas.
Good breakdown
I would add Titers for people to return to work with certificates showing immunity of some kind. This is with the assumption that titers=immunity which is the norm for most infections and hopefully COVID as well.River Bass said:I would think that would do some or all of the following:Quote:
I still want to know how we adjust back into "normal" life. Without an established therapeutic the transition will be difficult to navigate.
- Continue to isolate the high-risk population
- Continue to practice social distancing (6' rule) in places of work and worship. This may mean staggering hours or limiting the population inside a building at any given time.
- Carefully re-open schools with strategies and schedules to promote social distancing and allow the cleaning of classrooms. Not all grades need to be at school at the same time.
- Expand the list of essential businesses to get more people back to work, while still limiting high risk businesses like restaurants and hospitality.
- Start to allow elective procedures to resume so that hospitals can start making money and keep healthcare workers employed.
- Monitor the country on a more micro level. Watch cities and communities for spikes and if those occur, tighten restrictions locally.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
That's all nice, but how do you implement that? We would have to get millions tested a day and even then it'll take forever to process.
Do you have, or know of, regional graphs for Italy? I've seen the daily regional breakdowns but not in a historical daily graph visual.
Average deaths per case is 2.95%. Normal caveats apply.
I would love to be back in school, but at least at the high school level, I dont see social distancing working. I have 30 in one class with only room for 28 desks so two students use the co teach desk needed for the classes that are special ed that I also teach. If I had to put desks 6 feet apart in a room the size of mine, it would only hold about 12 kids max. Plus the expectation is that we as teachers circulate constantly from student to student . We can't do that standing 6 feet away. During class changes the halls are packed. We are a large 6A school. It might work for small schools but not for a large urban high school.
I work at a small junior high, and there's zero chance social distancing would work. Those kids are all over each other, and any advice goes in one ear and out the other.
I was thinking of some creative solutions for phasing back into school with social distancing. Like half the kids go one day, half the other. Classrooms are arranged for maximum distancing like Japanese daycares are now. You eat lunch in the classroom. Students don't change classrooms, teachers do if needed. Students all wear masks, all wash their hands periodically. If you had to change classes do so in a staggered fashion, not everyone at the same time.
Feels like there are solutions available, but sadly those solutions are much more available for families with means than without means.
Feels like there are solutions available, but sadly those solutions are much more available for families with means than without means.
I think that works in cultures like Japan, where people are generally submissive to authority. Try doing that in your typical inner city school would be a giant failure.
My wife taught for many years in a title 1 school, so I understand the issues very well. I still think there are some solutions that can work which are somewhere between normal school and what it is today.
I think one step would be to allow parents to choose whether their kid continues to learn from home or returns to school. This alone could reduce the student population inside the school building and allow distancing.
Some kids are doing phenomenally well at learning from home, especially those with stay-at-home moms or those with parents that have teaching backgrounds.
Other kids (like mine who have two working parents) are struggling to learn.
Some older, high school age kids may learn just fine online whereas elementary age kids need that face to face interaction with a teacher.
Some families have higher risk people living in their home and they may not want their kids exposed at school.
Other families may be low risk (or may have already recovered from COVID19) and would benefit greatly by not having their children at home during working hours.
Some kids are doing phenomenally well at learning from home, especially those with stay-at-home moms or those with parents that have teaching backgrounds.
Other kids (like mine who have two working parents) are struggling to learn.
Some older, high school age kids may learn just fine online whereas elementary age kids need that face to face interaction with a teacher.
Some families have higher risk people living in their home and they may not want their kids exposed at school.
Other families may be low risk (or may have already recovered from COVID19) and would benefit greatly by not having their children at home during working hours.
Are the Germans juking their stats or did they just get really lucky?
ham98 said:
Are the Germans juking their stats or did they just get really lucky?
Not sure if it's true but I have heard they are not counting all people who die and test positive for COVID as COVID deaths if they had another condition that contributed to the death. Whether true or not it's clear that every country is probably using different criteria. I've even heard Italy has had many people die and they didnt bother to test them since what's the point.
That's just Burrell.
Really great news out of the graphs today. The Death bend is looking real. Almost 2K lives spared today than predicted.
Thanks for doing these, it is really exciting to see that bend off the prediction!Philip J Fry said:
Really great news out of the graphs today. The Death bend is looking real. Almost 2K lives spared today than predicted.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Are they learning or are they doing well with the assignments? Grades for my students have never been better but I can pretty much guarantee that the learning is substantially less.River Bass said:
I think one step would be to allow parents to choose whether their kid continues to learn from home or returns to school. This alone could reduce the student population inside the school building and allow distancing.
Some kids are doing phenomenally well at learning from home, especially those with stay-at-home moms or those with parents that have teaching backgrounds.
Other kids (like mine who have two working parents) are struggling to learn.
Some older, high school age kids may learn just fine online whereas elementary age kids need that face to face interaction with a teacher.
Some families have higher risk people living in their home and they may not want their kids exposed at school.
Other families may be low risk (or may have already recovered from COVID19) and would benefit greatly by not having their children at home during working hours.
covidcompare.com updated. This is what you get when you hover over Texas:
Not to be a downer, but I hope that chart isn't just showing the limits of our testing capabilities. After all, we can't increase our testing exponentially forever, and I have no idea if testing is keeping pace with symptomatic people
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
There are probably some limitations, but the 7 day CAGRs are below:
New Cases:
March 31 - 15.3%
April 6 - 9.0%
New Tests:
March 31 - 16.9%
April 6 - 9.7%
In both instances, the number of new tests has grown at a higher rate than new cases. However, the percentage of positives in tests increased from 17.1% to 19.0%.
New Cases:
March 31 - 15.3%
April 6 - 9.0%
New Tests:
March 31 - 16.9%
April 6 - 9.7%
In both instances, the number of new tests has grown at a higher rate than new cases. However, the percentage of positives in tests increased from 17.1% to 19.0%.
Does that mean we're just being more selective with our testing?
Also, is there any source to see deaths attributed to pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis, CHF, whatever it may be that can be compared to a 'normal' year, March, April. I wonder if any of these deaths aren't being attributed to COVID19.
Or it's a true bend, I sincerely hope so.
Also, is there any source to see deaths attributed to pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis, CHF, whatever it may be that can be compared to a 'normal' year, March, April. I wonder if any of these deaths aren't being attributed to COVID19.
Or it's a true bend, I sincerely hope so.
From what I've read, the reason that the % of people who have tested positive as a proportion of all tests is low, despite our high bar for accessing a test, is that a majority of our tests are on front line workers, where the test results would have a big impact on whether or not a doctor/nurse/etc could continue to work or needed to stay quarantined.
Deaths/cases went up to 2.96%. Deaths lag cases cases by 10-14 days. Cases are probably under-reported.
ramblin_ag02 said:
Not to be a downer, but I hope that chart isn't just showing the limits of our testing capabilities. After all, we can't increase our testing exponentially forever, and I have no idea if testing is keeping pace with symptomatic people
I'm sure that's always possible, but I think you'll have your answer if the death curve continues to bend.
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