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Last: 2 yr ago by AggieUSMC
It's a dumb stat. You don't spread this in your car. Just when you get out. A better stat would be how many different buildings besides your home you go into.
You're better than this. Don't posture like this is a R v D scenario.
Thought you guys might be interested in how quickly US Deaths are doubling. Despite the ugly numbers the last two days, trend shows definitely slowing:
This is great news. Just gotta keep it up. Let's all hope the massive sacrifice of social distancing does what it's supposed to.
Infection data:
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
Hard to see, but today brought some good news. New daily deaths dropped from 1056 to 985. I'll take any positive news we can get.
Also added Michigan. Looks like they may be the next epicenter.
Deaths
Hospitalization Data
Positive/Negative/Pending Tests
CFR
Note: I'm using the following to calculate CFR: Today's Number Deaths/# Confirmed Infections 7 Days ago
Hard to see, but today brought some good news. New daily deaths dropped from 1056 to 985. I'll take any positive news we can get.
Also added Michigan. Looks like they may be the next epicenter.
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Old Buffalo said:
You're better than this. Don't posture like this is a R v D scenario.
You're right, I shouldn't post anything political on this thread. I just thought the maps were strikingly similar.
PJYoung said:PJYoung said:
all of these maps show roughly the same thing with the exception of the rust belt on the political map. what it shows is that counties with less population density, have cut down on their movement less than areas with higher densities. This political map shows that more rural areas tended to vote Trump (we already knew this) and urban areas (with the exception of the rust belt) voted the other way. but the pop. density map and the reduced movement map are nearly identical just inverses. this makes sense when you consider that in areas of lower pop. density, a person would maintain more ability to move about freely and still observe social distancing than a person in a large urban center. especially when considering the movement map just shows relative change to pre-social distancing. a lot of people in the very rural counties were probably already engaging in basic social distancing prior to all of this just due to where they live.
updated one page 1. here are all the graphs again though to avoid the need to click back. Also made some updates:
added a % of pop tested on S. Korea's plot. also added some plots here to start looking at deaths and try to forecast the trend. to me it looks like our death count in the near term is most likely matched by a power law function. but a 2nd order polynomial could also fit, but I think that forecast is overly optimistic. below ar emy new graphs looking at estimating total case load based on assumed CFRs and applying that to the death count under the assumption that the death count on a given day relates to the total real case load 2 weeks prior. I forecasted the death count out 2 weeks in order to calculate an estimated real case load for the most recent 2 weeks using both the 2nd order poly function (which i think is too optimistic) and the power law (which i think is closer to reality).
added a % of pop tested on S. Korea's plot. also added some plots here to start looking at deaths and try to forecast the trend. to me it looks like our death count in the near term is most likely matched by a power law function. but a 2nd order polynomial could also fit, but I think that forecast is overly optimistic. below ar emy new graphs looking at estimating total case load based on assumed CFRs and applying that to the death count under the assumption that the death count on a given day relates to the total real case load 2 weeks prior. I forecasted the death count out 2 weeks in order to calculate an estimated real case load for the most recent 2 weeks using both the 2nd order poly function (which i think is too optimistic) and the power law (which i think is closer to reality).
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
Yes, a month back many were focusing on their 0.7% CFR - but since then it's risen, as you mentioned, to nearly 2%. Similarly, people were point at a 0.5% CFR in Germany but it's risen there to 1.4% and rising. With the increase in testing I want to see those numbers decrease, not rise.PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
That has been the most surprising thing in the recent data from my perspective.
With the rise of testing, albeit not perfect, I expected the CFR to drop by at least 50-60%, and instead it continues to rise.
I still think it lands far lower than the 3.4% projection early on, but my prediction of 0.5% feels unrealistic now
With the rise of testing, albeit not perfect, I expected the CFR to drop by at least 50-60%, and instead it continues to rise.
I still think it lands far lower than the 3.4% projection early on, but my prediction of 0.5% feels unrealistic now
I'm pretty sure the initial infected population in South Korea skewed a lot younger than Italy. That by itself might account for a lot of the CFR differences.
The 3.4% was not a projection, at least not if you are referring to what the director at WHO said at one time. At the time he made the statement he said 3.4% of reported cases have ended in fatality - it was the case fatality rate at that time and not a prediction of ultimate determined mortality rate. If you are referring to another source of the 3.4% mortality estimate, ignore this.FrioAg 00 said:
That has been the most surprising thing in the recent data from my perspective.
With the rise of testing, albeit not perfect, I expected the CFR to drop by at least 50-60%, and instead it continues to rise.
I still think it lands far lower than the 3.4% projection early on, but my prediction of 0.5% feels unrealistic now
It could, yes.plain_o_llama said:
I'm pretty sure the initial infected population in South Korea skewed a lot younger than Italy. That by itself might account for a lot of the CFR differences.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/
I have not seen much on it, why is Michigan getting hit hard?
It doesn't seem out of whack, per capita.P.U.T.U said:
I have not seen much on it, why is Michigan getting hit hard?
3.4% was a calculation at that period in time. Total deaths divided by confirmed cases. Today the same calculation is 5.3%FrioAg 00 said:
That has been the most surprising thing in the recent data from my perspective.
With the rise of testing, albeit not perfect, I expected the CFR to drop by at least 50-60%, and instead it continues to rise.
I still think it lands far lower than the 3.4% projection early on, but my prediction of 0.5% feels unrealistic now
You are correct, and I understood that - but the media and many posters here did not. And they ran with that assumption, extrapolating it out as a Predicted final rate
At the time, mostly due to the lack of testing and some evidence of a much further spread than people realized - I was expecting something much much lower
Unfortunately, the numbers are getting pretty large and it seems to be settling somewhere between 1.5-2% for the US. That may be better than Europe, but it still represents a lot of dead Americans if it holds and a significant portion of the country get this
At the time, mostly due to the lack of testing and some evidence of a much further spread than people realized - I was expecting something much much lower
Unfortunately, the numbers are getting pretty large and it seems to be settling somewhere between 1.5-2% for the US. That may be better than Europe, but it still represents a lot of dead Americans if it holds and a significant portion of the country get this
If you take the most favorable view that the only way to get tested is to be hospitalized, and 80% of people do not need to be hospitalized, then the US would have around 1,000,000 cases with a 0.66% mortality rate. Of course, even the confirmed cases number is like a view into the past, with the delays in testing, getting a test, and getting symptoms. Therefore, really what it means is that we had 1,000,000 cases 2-3 weeks ago and today we probably have something like 10,000,000 cases, many of whom have still yet to show symptoms.
However, I think a lot of people think that at the end the fatality rate will go down, but actually it's the opposite. We've seen it with SK and with China. When the number of new cases goes towards zero, people are still dying from the active case population. So the case fatality rate actually rises over time towards the end.
Finally, I'm not sure how much value there is in following the population fatality rate, because it seems so dependent on what the age distribution of the sick are. The mortality rate by age seems to be consistent across countries where the medical system has been able to keep up. In Italy, older people are dying at a higher rate, probably because the oldest are not getting neccessary medical treatment due to triaged services prioritizing younger patients with more chance to live.
However, I think a lot of people think that at the end the fatality rate will go down, but actually it's the opposite. We've seen it with SK and with China. When the number of new cases goes towards zero, people are still dying from the active case population. So the case fatality rate actually rises over time towards the end.
Finally, I'm not sure how much value there is in following the population fatality rate, because it seems so dependent on what the age distribution of the sick are. The mortality rate by age seems to be consistent across countries where the medical system has been able to keep up. In Italy, older people are dying at a higher rate, probably because the oldest are not getting neccessary medical treatment due to triaged services prioritizing younger patients with more chance to live.
My opinion on the changes in CFR in Germany at least, is that they had a very good handle on things, similar to how SK did, with wide spread testing, but still relatively contained. Ultimately though, it broke containment, they aren't catching cases early enough now, and their CFR is rising as a result.Complete Idiot said:Yes, a month back many were focusing on their 0.7% CFR - but since then it's risen, as you mentioned, to nearly 2%. Similarly, people were point at a 0.5% CFR in Germany but it's risen there to 1.4% and rising. With the increase in testing I want to see those numbers decrease, not rise.PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
That theory seems pretty sound, but doesn't explain at all what's happened to the CFR in SK where they're getting just a handful of new cases, but people keep dying... and now at a 1.7% clip.
Mordred said:My opinion on the changes in CFR in Germany at least, is that they had a very good handle on things, similar to how SK did, with wide spread testing, but still relatively contained. Ultimately though, it broke containment, they aren't catching cases early enough now, and their CFR is rising as a result.Complete Idiot said:Yes, a month back many were focusing on their 0.7% CFR - but since then it's risen, as you mentioned, to nearly 2%. Similarly, people were point at a 0.5% CFR in Germany but it's risen there to 1.4% and rising. With the increase in testing I want to see those numbers decrease, not rise.PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
That theory seems pretty sound, but doesn't explain at all what's happened to the CFR in SK where they're getting just a handful of new cases, but people keep dying... and now at a 1.7% clip.
I thought it was just the long tail of the disease - it takes a while for people to die with this.
Right. If somehow we had 0 new cases after today, our CFR would go up daily as the people currently with the disease die. The denominator would be constant, but the numerator would go up.
I posted this up above - SK cases by ageMordred said:My opinion on the changes in CFR in Germany at least, is that they had a very good handle on things, similar to how SK did, with wide spread testing, but still relatively contained. Ultimately though, it broke containment, they aren't catching cases early enough now, and their CFR is rising as a result.Complete Idiot said:Yes, a month back many were focusing on their 0.7% CFR - but since then it's risen, as you mentioned, to nearly 2%. Similarly, people were point at a 0.5% CFR in Germany but it's risen there to 1.4% and rising. With the increase in testing I want to see those numbers decrease, not rise.PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
That theory seems pretty sound, but doesn't explain at all what's happened to the CFR in SK where they're getting just a handful of new cases, but people keep dying... and now at a 1.7% clip.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/
Over 75% of their cases under age 60.
But their mortality rate by age
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/
Still show how much more deadly this is for the aged.
Right, but SK has been averaging about 110 cases a day since March 9th, so we're past the 3 week time-to-death upper range. They're on very low linear growth, and yet they've been averaging 5 deaths a day since March 1st, peaking at 9 on March 29th.PJYoung said:Mordred said:My opinion on the changes in CFR in Germany at least, is that they had a very good handle on things, similar to how SK did, with wide spread testing, but still relatively contained. Ultimately though, it broke containment, they aren't catching cases early enough now, and their CFR is rising as a result.Complete Idiot said:Yes, a month back many were focusing on their 0.7% CFR - but since then it's risen, as you mentioned, to nearly 2%. Similarly, people were point at a 0.5% CFR in Germany but it's risen there to 1.4% and rising. With the increase in testing I want to see those numbers decrease, not rise.PJYoung said:Complete Idiot said:
It's disturbing to see how high the world wide CASE FATALITY rate (deceased patients tested positive for Covid 19/Total People tested positive for Covid 19) is, it's over 5%. I'd I imagine deaths lag tests. I'm sure it varies greatly by health going into the infection, and age, but overall it's 1 out of every 19 patients confirmed positive for Covid 19 have died.
The world needs to devote a lot of money and energy into testing - active virus and antibody tests - to get a better picture and one that won't scare everyone quite as much. We all want to believe the count of those that have had it is 2-20 times higher than the current tested positive number - can it be proven?
South Korea is who I keep going back to. They implemented extreme testing and case tracing from the very start (tracking down clusters using cell phones and credit card info) and were able to stop their outbreak in it's tracks. Their hospital system is top-notch yet you see their CFR is probably going to end up around 2%. Their hospitals were never overrun. That is disturbing because I don't think there's a ton of untested positives floating around there considering how on top of the testing they were from the very start.
That theory seems pretty sound, but doesn't explain at all what's happened to the CFR in SK where they're getting just a handful of new cases, but people keep dying... and now at a 1.7% clip.
I thought it was just the long tail of the disease - it takes a while for people to die with this.
This is true of the DIamond Princess, even now there are critical patients and people have recently died. No more positive tests for a long time, very contained population.HotardAg07 said:
Right. If somehow we had 0 new cases after today, our CFR would go up daily as the people currently with the disease die. The denominator would be constant, but the numerator would go up.
And where's Florida?P.U.T.U said:
I have not seen much on it, why is Michigan getting hit hard?
Maybe there is a travel link Detroit to China that took longer for critical mass in the community to become established. Infection vectors seem to be highly variable. Not all patients seem to infect at the same rate. Albany Georgia and Nola seem to be examples of sudden explosive growth while other places are slow growth until explosive growth kicks in
I expect FL to be in explosive growth in 3 weeks
I expect FL to be in explosive growth in 3 weeks
HotardAg07 said:
Right. If somehow we had 0 new cases after today, our CFR would go up daily as the people currently with the disease die. The denominator would be constant, but the numerator would go up.
That's why I think it's important to subtract 7 days from the denominator...if not more to get a truer representation of the CFR. I think it also shows how well we are doing with testing.
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