Welcome to the Octagon! WCQ matches are finally upon us, and it will require the USMNT battle with 7 other Concacaf teams in 14 matches to be played over the next 7 months. This brutal run will test every team's depth and abilities, which should only help the US cause. Here is a look at the US team's run through qualifying.
First Set of Games
The first set will be a real challenge given 2 trips to Central America. Getting out of this group of games with 5 points would be great, and 4 points might be realistic. Trips to El Salvador and Honduras in early September will be a challenge.
Sept. 2 @ El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF)--El Salvador went 2-1 in pool play at Gold Cup, then lost to Qatar in Quarterfinals. Always a tough place to play, especially in early September when it will be hot and humid in Central America. Looks like a 1-1 draw to me. Given the travel from Central America to Nashville and the grueling nature of this game could see a mixed squad of A team and more defensive minded players on the field for this one (game screams for 90 minutes of Acosta next to Adams).
Sept. 5 v. Canada (@ Nashville) (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--Canada also went 2-1 in group play at Gold Cup, with loss coming to the US, beat Costa Rica in the quarterfinals and then lost to Mexico in Gold Cup semifinals. They have not been in the final round of WCQ since 1998, so will be interesting seeing how this young, talented squad handles the rigors of the WCQ schedule. This will be a game we have circled to pull out the full A team and look for 3 points. Need a win out of the first three and this is the most likely at home.
Sept. 8 @ Honduras (#63 World, #6 CONCACAF) Nothing like another round trip down to Central America after coming back from El Salvador to play Canada. This will be where depth is tested first. I could see some of the younger guys like Hoppe or Aaronson and energy guys like Zardes getting starts down here. It will be Honduras' third game as well as they travel to Canada before coming home for games against El Salvador and US. Honduras gave up a lot of goals at Gold Cup (Honduras went 2-1 in their group at the Gold Cup, before losing to Mexico 3-0 in the quarterfinals), and you wonder about the depth of some of these teams so this could be a chance to nick a win on the road.
I see us going 1-0-2 in these three matches (5 points)
Second Set of Games
This set of games is where the U.S. needs to open a gap over the pack, as they play arguably several of the weaker teams in the Octagonal and get 2 of the three matches at home.
Oct. 7 vs. Jamaica (@ Austin) (#50 World Ranking, #4 CONCACAF)Jamaica challenged the US in the quarterfinals of the Gold Cup before a late goal from Matt Hoppe sent the US through. It will be a much different squad the Reggae Boyz face in Austin, and a three point outcome would be very much in need.
Oct. 10 - at Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). Panama are a bit of a team on the rebuild after their qualification for the World Cup in 2018 when Los Canaleros were surprise World Cup qualifiers at the Americans' expense. The US has fared better in Panama over the years than in other Central American stops, going 3-0-2 in Panama in WCQ. Will be interesting to see how deep Berhalter goes in his roster, but I could see another Kellyn Acosta type defensive battle here.
Oct. 13 - vs. Costa Rica (@Columbus) (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF) The last home qualifier against Los Ticos was a disastera 2-0 loss at Red Bull Arena in Sept. 2017 that cost Bruce Arena's men decisive points. Costa Rica is not the same team they once were, and again this third game in a set of three is where the US depth should shine though. Costa Rica will travel to Honduras and play El Salvador at home before the trip to Columbus.
See US finishing these three games 2-0-1 (7 points) for a total of 12 points.
Third Set of Games
It is nice that there are only 2 matches in this window as the club teams will be deep into their seasons and the MLS players will be in the midst of the playoffs. Building off what should be success in the previous matches, this could be where the US jumps out to the front of the qualification
Nov. 12 - vs. Mexico (@ Cincinnati) (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF). US-Mex, WCQ, November. Enough said. Should be another classic battle where the two sides look for CONCACAF supremacy. I like that there are only 2 games in this round of games so the focus can rightly be on this match. After 2 losses to the US over the summer it will be interesting to see if the US is in the heads of the Mexican team.
Nov. 16 - at Jamaica (#50 World Ranking, #4 CONCACAF). The U.S. is 3-1-5 all-time in Kingston. The most recent game in the Jamaican capital was a 2-1 win in June 2013. You are guaranteed a rough field and a tough opponent every time you travel to Jamaica, so looking for a point will be crucial in the trip to Jamaica.
Two tough matches and I wee two draws (0-0-2) for 2 points, with a total at 14 points.
Fourth Set of Games
Jan. 27 - vs. El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF)Home game against a Central American squad in January? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.
Jan. 30 - at Canada (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--The site of Berhalter's lowest moment as U.S. coacha comprehensive 2-0 Nations League loss at BMO Field in Toronto in Oct. 2019. Canada hadn't reached the last round of World Cup qualifying since the 1998 cycle.
Feb. 2 - vs. Honduras (#67 World, #5 CONCACAF)-- Home game against a Central American squad in early February? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.
See a 2-1-0 record here for 6 more points, and a total of 20 points
Fifth Set of Games
March 24 - at Mexico (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF)
The Octagonal's home stretch begins at the Estadio Azteca, where the U.S. is unbeaten in its past three visitsa friendly win in 2012 followed by qualifying draws in '13 and '17. Hopefully US will have wrapped up qualification by this time and we can just go into this game as a measuring stick and for pride.
March 27 - vs. Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). The US faced Panama at home in the penultimate match of the 2018 WCQ Hexaganol, and recorded a decisive 4-0 win, making us all rather confident (including the team apparently) that they would cruise down to Trinidad and Tobago and finish qualification. Well we know the rest of the story, so hopefully we can repeat the win over Panama and then not have to worry about the final game away from home.
March 30 - at Costa Rica (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF). We all better hope that the US has fully qualified for the WC and that we can send a C team down to Central America for the final WCQ match.
The U.S. has had a brutal run in Costa Rica, where it's 0-9-2 all-time, including eight straight losses.
Final matches see a 1-2-0 record and 3 more points.
Projection is that the USMNT finish qualifying with a 6-3-5 record and 23 points. That would give the US 1.64 points per game, a rate that has finished 2nd or 3rd and qualified from CONCACAF for every WC since 2006. So if we have that record I think we will have we should qualify with relative ease. Let's go!
First Set of Games
The first set will be a real challenge given 2 trips to Central America. Getting out of this group of games with 5 points would be great, and 4 points might be realistic. Trips to El Salvador and Honduras in early September will be a challenge.
Sept. 2 @ El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF)--El Salvador went 2-1 in pool play at Gold Cup, then lost to Qatar in Quarterfinals. Always a tough place to play, especially in early September when it will be hot and humid in Central America. Looks like a 1-1 draw to me. Given the travel from Central America to Nashville and the grueling nature of this game could see a mixed squad of A team and more defensive minded players on the field for this one (game screams for 90 minutes of Acosta next to Adams).
Sept. 5 v. Canada (@ Nashville) (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--Canada also went 2-1 in group play at Gold Cup, with loss coming to the US, beat Costa Rica in the quarterfinals and then lost to Mexico in Gold Cup semifinals. They have not been in the final round of WCQ since 1998, so will be interesting seeing how this young, talented squad handles the rigors of the WCQ schedule. This will be a game we have circled to pull out the full A team and look for 3 points. Need a win out of the first three and this is the most likely at home.
Sept. 8 @ Honduras (#63 World, #6 CONCACAF) Nothing like another round trip down to Central America after coming back from El Salvador to play Canada. This will be where depth is tested first. I could see some of the younger guys like Hoppe or Aaronson and energy guys like Zardes getting starts down here. It will be Honduras' third game as well as they travel to Canada before coming home for games against El Salvador and US. Honduras gave up a lot of goals at Gold Cup (Honduras went 2-1 in their group at the Gold Cup, before losing to Mexico 3-0 in the quarterfinals), and you wonder about the depth of some of these teams so this could be a chance to nick a win on the road.
I see us going 1-0-2 in these three matches (5 points)
Second Set of Games
This set of games is where the U.S. needs to open a gap over the pack, as they play arguably several of the weaker teams in the Octagonal and get 2 of the three matches at home.
Oct. 7 vs. Jamaica (@ Austin) (#50 World Ranking, #4 CONCACAF)Jamaica challenged the US in the quarterfinals of the Gold Cup before a late goal from Matt Hoppe sent the US through. It will be a much different squad the Reggae Boyz face in Austin, and a three point outcome would be very much in need.
Oct. 10 - at Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). Panama are a bit of a team on the rebuild after their qualification for the World Cup in 2018 when Los Canaleros were surprise World Cup qualifiers at the Americans' expense. The US has fared better in Panama over the years than in other Central American stops, going 3-0-2 in Panama in WCQ. Will be interesting to see how deep Berhalter goes in his roster, but I could see another Kellyn Acosta type defensive battle here.
Oct. 13 - vs. Costa Rica (@Columbus) (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF) The last home qualifier against Los Ticos was a disastera 2-0 loss at Red Bull Arena in Sept. 2017 that cost Bruce Arena's men decisive points. Costa Rica is not the same team they once were, and again this third game in a set of three is where the US depth should shine though. Costa Rica will travel to Honduras and play El Salvador at home before the trip to Columbus.
See US finishing these three games 2-0-1 (7 points) for a total of 12 points.
Third Set of Games
It is nice that there are only 2 matches in this window as the club teams will be deep into their seasons and the MLS players will be in the midst of the playoffs. Building off what should be success in the previous matches, this could be where the US jumps out to the front of the qualification
Nov. 12 - vs. Mexico (@ Cincinnati) (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF). US-Mex, WCQ, November. Enough said. Should be another classic battle where the two sides look for CONCACAF supremacy. I like that there are only 2 games in this round of games so the focus can rightly be on this match. After 2 losses to the US over the summer it will be interesting to see if the US is in the heads of the Mexican team.
Nov. 16 - at Jamaica (#50 World Ranking, #4 CONCACAF). The U.S. is 3-1-5 all-time in Kingston. The most recent game in the Jamaican capital was a 2-1 win in June 2013. You are guaranteed a rough field and a tough opponent every time you travel to Jamaica, so looking for a point will be crucial in the trip to Jamaica.
Two tough matches and I wee two draws (0-0-2) for 2 points, with a total at 14 points.
Fourth Set of Games
Jan. 27 - vs. El Salvador (#64 World Ranking, #7 CONCACAF)Home game against a Central American squad in January? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.
Jan. 30 - at Canada (#59 World Ranking, #5 CONCACAF)--The site of Berhalter's lowest moment as U.S. coacha comprehensive 2-0 Nations League loss at BMO Field in Toronto in Oct. 2019. Canada hadn't reached the last round of World Cup qualifying since the 1998 cycle.
Feb. 2 - vs. Honduras (#67 World, #5 CONCACAF)-- Home game against a Central American squad in early February? These are the kind of games where you HAVE to get three points.
See a 2-1-0 record here for 6 more points, and a total of 20 points
Fifth Set of Games
March 24 - at Mexico (#9 World Ranking, #1 CONCACAF)
The Octagonal's home stretch begins at the Estadio Azteca, where the U.S. is unbeaten in its past three visitsa friendly win in 2012 followed by qualifying draws in '13 and '17. Hopefully US will have wrapped up qualification by this time and we can just go into this game as a measuring stick and for pride.
March 27 - vs. Panama (#74 World Ranking, #8 CONCACAF). The US faced Panama at home in the penultimate match of the 2018 WCQ Hexaganol, and recorded a decisive 4-0 win, making us all rather confident (including the team apparently) that they would cruise down to Trinidad and Tobago and finish qualification. Well we know the rest of the story, so hopefully we can repeat the win over Panama and then not have to worry about the final game away from home.
March 30 - at Costa Rica (#44 World Ranking, #3 CONCACAF). We all better hope that the US has fully qualified for the WC and that we can send a C team down to Central America for the final WCQ match.
The U.S. has had a brutal run in Costa Rica, where it's 0-9-2 all-time, including eight straight losses.
Final matches see a 1-2-0 record and 3 more points.
Projection is that the USMNT finish qualifying with a 6-3-5 record and 23 points. That would give the US 1.64 points per game, a rate that has finished 2nd or 3rd and qualified from CONCACAF for every WC since 2006. So if we have that record I think we will have we should qualify with relative ease. Let's go!
