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It's here (COVID 19)

410,494 Views | 3356 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TexasAggie008
Hood
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Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
Today's TSA E active patients is 576.

We just had the deadliest day, yesterday with 50 fatalities in the state, so death is and can be one of the outcomes here. Overall, though, we are still maintaining a "flat curve" and have plenty of capacity.

The next two weeks will be important to track.
agcrock2005
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Hood said:

Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The next two weeks will be important to track.
Why? I feel like I've been hearing this for two months now. This virus is still killing old people (75% of fatalities are older than 65 according to site you linked) and most likely the amount of positive cases in DFW is astronomical because we never really sheltered-in-place in the first place and we're just now starting to test lots of people. Home Depot/Lowes and grocery stores have been absolutely packed for the last two months. Positive cases are going to boom because of testing.
Trucker 96
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the case count #'s are essentially meaningless to me. hospitalization stats are the only thing i care about and the only metric that can be reasonably trusted. as testing grows, case counts will grow but that doesn't mean diddly squat as far as what a real curve looks like.
nai06
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agcrock2005 said:

Hood said:

Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The next two weeks will be important to track.
Why? I feel like I've been hearing this for two months now. This virus is still killing old people (75% of fatalities are older than 65 according to site you linked) and most likely the amount of positive cases in DFW is astronomical because we never really sheltered-in-place in the first place and we're just now starting to test lots of people. Home Depot/Lowes and grocery stores have been absolutely packed for the last two months. Positive cases are going to boom because of testing.
Because restrictions are being lifted. If there is a huge spike in hospitalizations then maybe the reopen was premature. I think it really depends on how seriously people take the gradual reopen.
Hood
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agcrock2005 said:

Hood said:

Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The next two weeks will be important to track.
Why? I feel like I've been hearing this for two months now. This virus is still killing old people (75% of fatalities are older than 65 according to site you linked) and most likely the amount of positive cases in DFW is astronomical because we never really sheltered-in-place in the first place and we're just now starting to test lots of people. Home Depot/Lowes and grocery stores have been absolutely packed for the last two months. Positive cases are going to boom because of testing.
You track ICU room usage and ventilator usage.

Yes, increases in testing will show more cases. Texas is low in per capita testing and asymptomatic cases are probably severely under-counted.
agcrock2005
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nai06 said:

agcrock2005 said:

Hood said:

Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The next two weeks will be important to track.
Why? I feel like I've been hearing this for two months now. This virus is still killing old people (75% of fatalities are older than 65 according to site you linked) and most likely the amount of positive cases in DFW is astronomical because we never really sheltered-in-place in the first place and we're just now starting to test lots of people. Home Depot/Lowes and grocery stores have been absolutely packed for the last two months. Positive cases are going to boom because of testing.
Because restrictions are being lifted. If there is a huge spike in hospitalizations then maybe the reopen was premature. I think it really depends on how seriously people take the gradual reopen.
I agree that with keeping an eye on hospitalizations is good idea. I think the gradual reopening thing is going to be a joke just like the stay-at-home stuff that nobody has been paying attention to. So many people have been out and about throughout this that I think there won't be much change in near future with regards to hospital occupancy. Hopefully old/vulnerable people will take it seriously still and we will be fine. My theory FWIW (not much!).
TexasAggie008
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AG
Several places are already fully booked through the weekend for reservations
nai06
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agcrock2005 said:

nai06 said:

agcrock2005 said:

Hood said:

Hood said:

Here's a COVID dashboard for Texas only.

One of the pages has Trauma Service Area (TSA) Hospital Data. We are all in TSA E. TSA E has 7.8 million people within it. The number of active COVID patients in TSA E is 611.

611 active COVID patients in North Central Texas.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The next two weeks will be important to track.
Why? I feel like I've been hearing this for two months now. This virus is still killing old people (75% of fatalities are older than 65 according to site you linked) and most likely the amount of positive cases in DFW is astronomical because we never really sheltered-in-place in the first place and we're just now starting to test lots of people. Home Depot/Lowes and grocery stores have been absolutely packed for the last two months. Positive cases are going to boom because of testing.
Because restrictions are being lifted. If there is a huge spike in hospitalizations then maybe the reopen was premature. I think it really depends on how seriously people take the gradual reopen.
I agree that with keeping an eye on hospitalizations is good idea. I think the gradual reopening thing is going to be a joke just like the stay-at-home stuff that nobody has been paying attention to. So many people have been out and about throughout this that I think there won't be much change in near future with regards to hospital occupancy. Hopefully old/vulnerable people will take it seriously still and we will be fine. My theory FWIW (not much!).
a restaurant near me is kicking off today with a live band and a bounce house for the kids
Hood
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Quote:

and a bounce house for the kids
TexasAggie008
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Visual confirmation - Katy ice house is open
agcrock2005
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That's ok. Kids don't die from this...hopefully their grandparents won't be there and they'll be at home staying safe.
Old Buffalo
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So if asymptomatic cases are undercounted, then the CFR is inflated. Meaning that 2.5% (or whatever it is right now) is the maximum it could be.
Hood
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Old Buffalo said:

So if asymptomatic cases are undercounted, then the CFR is inflated. Meaning that 2.5% (or whatever it is right now) is the maximum it could be.
This is almost certainly true. Most of our early tests in the US were used for sick people. As testing becomes more ubiquitous, this number will crash.

The serology studies done so far indicate a much more widespread virus and also indicates a much lower rate of death.

This should be NO comfort to the elderly and folks with comorbidities, but should be taken into account and allow for the economy to slowly return to some sort of normalcy.
AggieFactor
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They have got to be clearing out a testing backlog at the labs right? Dont see how we have almost a whole week last week of below 100 case average to almost double that the next week. Although maybe this is similar to the spike Tarrant saw last week and we should start to see the decline again in the next couple days.
Fitch
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Dang. One of the deaths reported was a kid in his 20's.
Hood
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Fitch said:

Dang. One of the deaths reported was a kid in his 20's.
This would be either the 4th or 5th death in Texas of someone in their 20s.
agcrock2005
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AggieFactor said:



They have got to be clearing out a testing backlog at the labs right? Dont see how we have almost a whole week last week of below 100 case average to almost double that the next week. Although maybe this is similar to the spike Tarrant saw last week and we should start to see the decline again in the next couple days.
More tests...that's what we've been talking about the last few hours. We are doing LOTS more testing now. Who cares about "cases". Care about hospitalizations/ICU usage.
John Francis Donaghy
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17 year old girl died a few days ago. There's been a fair number of deaths in the 30-40 age range in DFW too.
YouBet
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Sitting at a restaurant bar right now. Y'all can laugh at me when I'm dead from doing this!
Ol Jock 99
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"No increase in testing CAPACITY." Ok...what percentage capacity are the testing centers running? Obviously 100% would be a problem. But if they are running at 50-70%, capacity isn't the issue.
TexasAggie008
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Anything that comes out of his mouth can't be trusted...he's as politically motivated and divisive as any local or national political figure in my memory.

Was great seeing ice house open earlier right next to his bullshi* flashing sign on the trail, stating which letters of the alphabet-last names are allowed to walk on it today
DFWTLR
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Ol Jock 99 said:

"No increase in testing CAPACITY." Ok...what percentage capacity are the testing centers running? Obviously 100% would be a problem. But if they are running at 50-70%, capacity isn't the issue.
The testing sites are hitting capacity this week, but Clay is allowing asymptomatic people get tested, all you have to do is declare you're an essential worked.

Also, they are taking tests from the AAC and Ellis Fieldhouse and dispersing to the Parkland Mobile unit to test nursing homes. Started last week, and tested over 250 yesterday alone. I believe those have a quicker turn time as well since they are for more vulnerable patients.
TexasAggie008
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As was talked about a few pages back - #s in nursing homes and prisons should have 0.000% to do with when businesses can safely open

I think that's how Abbott and co see it, too, which is all that matters
John Francis Donaghy
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TexasAggie008 said:

As was talked about a few pages back - #s in nursing homes and prisons should have 0.000% to do with when businesses can safely open

I think that's how Abbott and co see it, too, which is all that matters


As long as employees of those prisons and nursing homes are still going to work, those employees are also still coming home from from work, and then going shopping, interacting with their families, who in turn go out in the world shopping, going to their own job, etc.

These isntitutions do not exist in their own isolated bubbles. The virus got into them due to interactions with the outside community, and it can can just as easily spread back out into the surrounding community from them.
powerbelly
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John Francis Donaghy said:

TexasAggie008 said:

As was talked about a few pages back - #s in nursing homes and prisons should have 0.000% to do with when businesses can safely open

I think that's how Abbott and co see it, too, which is all that matters


As long as employees of those prisons and nursing homes are still going to work, those employees are also still coming home from from work, and then going shopping, interacting with their families, who in turn go out in the world shopping, going to their own job, etc.

These isntitutions do not exist in their own isolated bubbles. The virus got into them due to interactions with the outside community, and it can can just as easily spread back out into the surrounding community from them.
But nothing in the outside community has the same conditions as either prisons/jails/nursing homes.

Almost everyone will get this at some point, there is no reason to keep everything shut down.
agcrock2005
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TexasAggie008 said:

nm...apparently other people responded to it.
TexasAggie008
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But its vastly different if half of today's cases were from nursing homes/prisons Vs. 0 of them

The latter would suggest WAY more legitimate community spread, and lack of a flattening curve
MGS
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DFWTLR said:

Ol Jock 99 said:

"No increase in testing CAPACITY." Ok...what percentage capacity are the testing centers running? Obviously 100% would be a problem. But if they are running at 50-70%, capacity isn't the issue.
The testing sites are hitting capacity this week, but Clay is allowing asymptomatic people get tested, all you have to do is declare you're an essential worked.

Also, they are taking tests from the AAC and Ellis Fieldhouse and dispersing to the Parkland Mobile unit to test nursing homes. Started last week, and tested over 250 yesterday alone. I believe those have a quicker turn time as well since they are for more vulnerable patients.
So misleading, testing capacity is irrelevant. Does Dallas county publish raw testing numbers? Is the rate of positive tests going up or down?
DFWTLR
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MGS said:

DFWTLR said:

Ol Jock 99 said:

"No increase in testing CAPACITY." Ok...what percentage capacity are the testing centers running? Obviously 100% would be a problem. But if they are running at 50-70%, capacity isn't the issue.
The testing sites are hitting capacity this week, but Clay is allowing asymptomatic people get tested, all you have to do is declare you're an essential worked.

Also, they are taking tests from the AAC and Ellis Fieldhouse and dispersing to the Parkland Mobile unit to test nursing homes. Started last week, and tested over 250 yesterday alone. I believe those have a quicker turn time as well since they are for more vulnerable patients.
So misleading, testing capacity is irrelevant. Does Dallas county publish raw testing numbers? Is the rate of positive tests going up or down?
Yes, Dallas County posts everything you asked about, and the link has been posted on this thread multiple times.
cp2011
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I was quick to grab my torch & ptichfork, but, as others have shared there is an abundance of data out there. It's just a matter of selective presentation on the part of few that grinds my gears. Thanks to Hood & Ol Jock for bringing the knowledge:


https://public.tableau.com/profile/cityofdallasdtxinnovationteam#!/vizhome/Book3_15862351183220/Dallas311Calls

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
Hood
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Correct.

And here's your 15-day trend...

OKC~Ag
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Bingo Bango Bongo said:

the case count #'s are essentially meaningless to me. hospitalization stats are the only thing i care about and the only metric that can be reasonably trusted. as testing grows, case counts will grow but that doesn't mean diddly squat as far as what a real curve looks like.
well, hospital data and ventilator use will be kind of contaminated unless hospital specificity Covid related hospitalization...

As elective cases resume and the public feels more comfortable using hospital service for their existing medical problems, overall hospital capacity will go back up, naturally.
Red Rover
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Thanks Hood, for keeping the updates going. You wouldn't be interested in doing weekly NFL updates once this is all over with, would you?
Phat32
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So I guess we'll find out if all of this works in about 10-14 days.
agcrock2005
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yukmonkey said:

So I guess we'll find out if all of this works in about 10-14 days.
No. 10-14 days after the next 10-14 days...
 
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