I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
It's here (COVID 19)
410,873 Views |
3356 Replies |
Last: 2 yr ago by TexasAggie008
agcrock2005 said:I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
Patient Zero in Seattle isn't the only person that has spread it in the US, it was simply the first person believed to have it in the US. Yes some of the other infected from China made their way here and that is why every single outbreak didn't start in Seattle.
That still doesn't change the fact that the only way a virus that has a 14 day incubation period and has caused a very significant spike in a certain type of pneumonia-like symptoms could have been around infecting people for months before the new year would be if you had hospitals reporting these type of patients en-masse like they are currently seeing in NYC and New Orleans.
That didn't happen. So, again, no -- that really bad cold everyone on Facebook is remembering they had back in November wasn't coronavirus.
Unless you can find a plausible catalyst/change as to why the virus was so benign in people Oct-Dec but then really became hostile in February/March then the theory that it's been around for a while simply does not hold water. As John Francis said in a previous post, it's a blind wish ignoring the data from people wanting to believe we're a lot further thru this than we are.
I guess we will see in a few weeks, as they're saying it will hit its peak in Texas three weeks from now.agcrock2005 said:I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
I think it will be pretty obvious that it was not going around during the time you are suggesting. The simple fact that we are likely to have a huge uptick in people getting sick and dying will bear that out.
Think about this, a week ago there were 352 positive cases and eight deaths. Today we have 2,877 positive cases and 38 deaths. That's pretty rapid growth, and we are way under-testing.
Fair enough. I appreciate your responses. I'm glad we live in the country with the best doctors/companies in the world. I'm confident that no matter what we're not going to lose the amount of people these models are showing. On May 2nd we're not going to be losing 100 people per day in Texas! Whether it's using plasma from survivors that have antibodies to treat this or some other combination of drugs, we'll figure something out that will work, or at least mitigate the deaths. Thanks again for your thoughtful responses. I'm going to drink a beer now and watch the press conference that I paused.Proposition Joe said:agcrock2005 said:I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
Unless you can find a plausible catalyst/change as to why the virus was so benign in people Oct-Dec but then really became hostile in February/March then the theory that it's been around for a while simply does not hold water. As John Francis said in a previous post, it's a blind wish ignoring the data from people wanting to believe we're a lot further thru this than we are.
bangobango said:I guess we will see in a few weeks, as they're saying it will hit its peak in Texas three weeks from now.agcrock2005 said:I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
I think it will be pretty obvious that it was not going around during the time you are suggesting. The simple fact that we are likely to have a huge uptick in people getting sick and dying will bear that out.
Think about this, a week ago there were 352 positive cases and eight deaths. Today we have 2,877 positive cases and 38 deaths. That's pretty rapid growth, and we are way under-testing.
Can someone explain the hit the peak in three weeks? We've been on lockdown for two weeks now. If you are going to have symptoms max is this weekend. We should see peaks this weekend if not starting to go down with a 14 day max/ 5 day average incubation and symptoms in 5 days.
Not trying to stir. Really want to understand. Bc they said peak in 3 weeks a couple weeks ago.
I'm obviously not the expert, but my understanding is there are hundreds (if not thousands) of curves throughout the country based upon location.Quote:
Not trying to stir. Really want to understand. Bc they said peak in 3 weeks a couple weeks ago.
agcrock2005 said:I'm obviously not the expert, but my understanding is there are hundreds (if not thousands) of curves throughout the country based upon location.Quote:
Not trying to stir. Really want to understand. Bc they said peak in 3 weeks a couple weeks ago.
That makes sense. But I'm referring to DFW.
Testing is taking five to ten days to get back, plus you don't go straight to the hospital when you get sick, there is another delay between onset of symptoms and hospitalization.
These are my guesses. I'm not an expert.
These are my guesses. I'm not an expert.
Yea, not sure if they're talking 3 weeks is peak of hospitalizations, or cases confirmed, or deaths. But I think by 'flattening the curve' the peak should be pushed days or weeks.
Ok. So we will know 5-10 days after the curve is flattened. Lol.
But it makes sense. A couple days after this weekend is the critical point. We just won't know the results till three weeks from now.
But it makes sense. A couple days after this weekend is the critical point. We just won't know the results till three weeks from now.
From the link:
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-adds-61-more-covid-19-cases-man-in-his-40s-is-the-countys-11th-fatality/2341950/
Why are Collin and Denton counties reporting recoveries, but Tarrant and Dallas aren't?
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-adds-61-more-covid-19-cases-man-in-his-40s-is-the-countys-11th-fatality/2341950/
Why are Collin and Denton counties reporting recoveries, but Tarrant and Dallas aren't?
riverrataggie said:bangobango said:I guess we will see in a few weeks, as they're saying it will hit its peak in Texas three weeks from now.agcrock2005 said:I'm not downplaying the situation at all. I know this is serious but I don't think we have all of the data either. Do we know "patient zero" is "patient zero"? Thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people came in from China AFTER they were having their issues and all the way up UNTIL Trump cut off travel from there. Daily direct flights from one of China's largest cities. They were flying to NYC, LA, Seattle, Chicago, and many others (possibly DFW?) every day. Did we all just get lucky over the last couple months?Proposition Joe said:
So unless hundreds of people were dying a day in NYC due a "strange flu" back in January and we just didn't notice it, then the data simply doesn't support it.
I think it will be pretty obvious that it was not going around during the time you are suggesting. The simple fact that we are likely to have a huge uptick in people getting sick and dying will bear that out.
Think about this, a week ago there were 352 positive cases and eight deaths. Today we have 2,877 positive cases and 38 deaths. That's pretty rapid growth, and we are way under-testing.
Can someone explain the hit the peak in three weeks? We've been on lockdown for two weeks now. If you are going to have symptoms max is this weekend. We should see peaks this weekend if not starting to go down with a 14 day max/ 5 day average incubation and symptoms in 5 days.
Not trying to stir. Really want to understand. Bc they said peak in 3 weeks a couple weeks ago.
Because "lockdown" doesn't stop the virus from spreading, it simply slows it. So we may have slowed the exponential growth, but people are still infecting other people (especially with so many people who assume because they feel fine, they must be fine).
I think "when things get bad" is basing much of it on how the charts look once a state hits 100 cases, and we're roughly 10 days behind New York on that.
So don't look it as when we'll hit our peak (because we're still a long ways off from that), glance at what New York was 10-12 days ago and assume that is roughly where we are at. 12 days ago they hit 2480 confirmed cases. Right now we stand at 3195... It's not an exact science so don't take that as we're worse off than NY, but if you look at where they are now you start to see that it's in 3-4 days when #'s start getting really concerning in Texas and by the next week it potentially looks really, really bad.
I think too many people view this from the lens of everyone in America starting at the same time so since we're so far behind WA/NY/LA that means we're not in bad shape. But we didn't start at the same time, and exponential growth can make things get real big, real fast.
What we don't know is how much social distancing (and general distance between living that Texans enjoy over New York) is going to impact that growth. If we'r sitting at 5000-6000 cases by the end of the week, I'd say social distancing has helped us quite a bit.
Also just regular distancing.
The population of Texas is nowhere near as dense or mass transit heavy as NY.
The population of Texas is nowhere near as dense or mass transit heavy as NY.
On the 5pm news today, they said Dallas is only at 2% of their hospital bed capacity. That doesn't seem right, even in non-pandemic times. Did I mis-hear that?
Even in NY, is there even one story of some guy that had a heart attack / was in a car wreck, and was turned away at the hospital bc they were out of room?
I was at Presby Dallas in Saturday and it was almost empty.
That is correct. State numbers as well. No one is going to clinics or hospitals bc most would be elective procedures. Hospital businesss is in bad shape.
There appear to be preparing for NYC when we are nothing like NYC.
Remember when Clay J said there would be 500K deaths by end of April?
Remember when Clay J said there would be 500K deaths by end of April?
Matsui said:
That is correct. State numbers as well. No one is going to clinics or hospitals bc most would be elective procedures. Hospital businesss is in bad shape.
Plus, normal accidents and deaths are probably way down since most people are WFH so that's another offset to normally occupied hospital beds.
Also, with warmer weather arriving normal flu cases should be trending downwards further opening beds.
Relatively speaking, we should be well prepared to handle with all of these positive conditions now coming together.
100 new cases reported today in Dallas County
Hospital bed numbers for the City of Dallas, would love to know how many are hospitalized from Covid currently in the numbers below, all I can find is on Dallas Counties website that 192 have ever been hospitalized but doesn't say how many are still in today.
Total Beds: 2,868
Beds Occupied: 1.542
Total ICU Beds: 361
ICU Beds Occupied: 204
Total Ventilators: 342
Ventilators in Use: 139
Collin County numbers:
Total Beds: 2,868
Beds Occupied: 1.542
Total ICU Beds: 361
ICU Beds Occupied: 204
Total Ventilators: 342
Ventilators in Use: 139
Collin County numbers:
- There are 130 current cases of COVID-19 in Collin County (total cases minus recovered and deceased).
- There have been 184 total confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in Collin County.
- 53 people have successfully recovered. 24 are hospitalized and 106 remain in home isolation.
- There has been 1 confirmed death associated with COVID-19 in Collin County.
- There have been 814 negative COVID-19 tests in Collin County.
- There are 211 Persons Under Monitoring (PUM) in Collin County.
Purely anecdotal, but our surgical nurse friend in Dallas has said it's starting to get bad with covid patients, and mirrors what everyone else has said regarding their lack of protective gear.
I question these numbers. Hospital I used to work at in small town had 400 beds and this was 20 years ago. The other hospital had somewhere around 100. Dallas only has 2,800 beds????DFWTLR said:
Hospital bed numbers for the City of Dallas, would love to know how many are hospitalized from Covid currently in the numbers below, all I can find is on Dallas Counties website that 192 have ever been hospitalized but doesn't say how many are still in today.
Total Beds: 2,868
Beds Occupied: 1.542
Total ICU Beds: 361
ICU Beds Occupied: 204
Total Ventilators: 342
Ventilators in Use: 139
Collin County numbers:
- There are 130 current cases of COVID-19 in Collin County (total cases minus recovered and deceased).
- There have been 184 total confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in Collin County.
- 53 people have successfully recovered. 24 are hospitalized and 106 remain in home isolation.
- There has been 1 confirmed death associated with COVID-19 in Collin County.
- There have been 814 negative COVID-19 tests in Collin County.
- There are 211 Persons Under Monitoring (PUM) in Collin County.
I assumed those were public hospitals in Dallas since the Mayor is requiring the numbers per day. Baylor has over 1000 and presby has close to that as well. I read DFW has 14000 so would think Dallas County would have over 5,000
YouBet said:I question these numbers. Hospital I used to work at in small town had 400 beds and this was 20 years ago. The other hospital had somewhere around 100. Dallas only has 2,800 beds????DFWTLR said:
Hospital bed numbers for the City of Dallas, would love to know how many are hospitalized from Covid currently in the numbers below, all I can find is on Dallas Counties website that 192 have ever been hospitalized but doesn't say how many are still in today.
Total Beds: 2,868
Beds Occupied: 1.542
Total ICU Beds: 361
ICU Beds Occupied: 204
Total Ventilators: 342
Ventilators in Use: 139
Collin County numbers:
- There are 130 current cases of COVID-19 in Collin County (total cases minus recovered and deceased).
- There have been 184 total confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 in Collin County.
- 53 people have successfully recovered. 24 are hospitalized and 106 remain in home isolation.
- There has been 1 confirmed death associated with COVID-19 in Collin County.
- There have been 814 negative COVID-19 tests in Collin County.
- There are 211 Persons Under Monitoring (PUM) in Collin County.
Most hospitals built decades ago had a lot more beds because there was a much higher focus on inpatient. Over the years a lot of hospitals have converted those unused beds to other specialties.
Rural hospitals hardly have enough money to do anything as is let alone huge renovations so a lot of them just have vacant wings they don't staff or service.
This makes more sense. Must just be county/public hospital beds.DFWTLR said:
I assumed those were public hospitals in Dallas since the Mayor is requiring the numbers per day. Baylor has over 1000 and presby has close to that as well. I read DFW has 14000 so would think Dallas County would have over 5,000
Gonna be me in a couple of days. We just flew oneyukmonkey said:
We got anyone who personally knows a case yet?
Had a buddy in the San Antonio area pass from it last week. It was a diabolical experience for he and his family.
Keep us updated - hope you are clear....
Sorry to hear that.AgBlitz said:
Had a buddy in the San Antonio area pass from it last week. It was a diabolical experience for he and his family.
Out of curiosity, was he someone that had previously been treated for cancer?AgBlitz said:
Had a buddy in the San Antonio area pass from it last week. It was a diabolical experience for he and his family.
father, down in brazos county, got a positive test on march 21. had a fever from 14-27 march. fever finally broke the 28th, and he's just waiting to get re-tested to see if it's officially gone.gomerschlep said:yukmonkey said:
We got anyone who personally knows a case yet?
no other symptoms, and he is in a high risk demo (70+) and smoked for 40 years.
very blessed.
Great to hear that he is recovering. Sick for 2 weeks solid? Damn.
That's pretty consistent with the accounts I have read online. The serious cases sound like 2 weeks of hell
Featured Stories
See All
SEC Round-Up: Dawgs facing possible playoff elimination this week
by Olin Buchanan
33:59
12h ago
1.4k
Pick 'Em & Rip 'Em sponsored by PrizePicks: Week 12
by Matthew Dawson
14:58
12h ago
1.0k
Assessing Earley's first signing class at the helm of Texas A&M baseball
by Ryan Brauninger
ElkoSZN
Instead of scheduling tough non-conference games like ND...
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
8
Tom Kazansky 2012
Number of football tickets A&M provided to t.u.
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
7
LosAngelesAg00
Instead of scheduling tough non-conference games like ND...
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
6