Astros offseason thread

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W
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9:59a, 1/12/18
AG
yes, there are still some dumb GM's out there that don't understand that.

you want to offer more money for fewer years for older players.

for example...offer $100 MM for 4 years instead of $140 MM for 7 years.

fortunately Luhnow understands this
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W
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:05a, 1/12/18
AG
Farmer1906 said:
mathguy86 said:
BMX Bandit said:
Michael Kay reporting Yankees offered Yu 7 years/$160mm. offer pulled after he didn't accept in 48 hours.
Either that didnt happen or Darvish and his agent are idiots. I mean Forrest Gump level idiots. Giving a pitcher who is 31+ years old a 7 year deal is insane.

Lester, Verlander, & Price all got 6-7 years deals at 30 ranging from 26-31 M per. I would say Yu isn't as good as any of them leading up to the deal, but there is a market set. Now I would guess just about every team regrets that contract. Maybe the market will learn. I could see a ~23 M per year evaluation, but you only give him that 4-5 tops.
what's interesting though...the Tigers have already dumped the Verlander contract. The Red Sox would dump Price's contract right now if they could. And the Cubs are tbd
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Farmer1906
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10:06a, 1/12/18
AG
High-level position players are getting 7 to 10 (one case 13) years. Just brace yourself when Altuve and Correa hit the market. We're going to have commit to these guys for a decade at 30 M each.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 10:06a, 1/12/18
AG
W said:
Farmer1906 said:
mathguy86 said:
BMX Bandit said:
Michael Kay reporting Yankees offered Yu 7 years/$160mm. offer pulled after he didn't accept in 48 hours.
Either that didnt happen or Darvish and his agent are idiots. I mean Forrest Gump level idiots. Giving a pitcher who is 31+ years old a 7 year deal is insane.

Lester, Verlander, & Price all got 6-7 years deals at 30 ranging from 26-31 M per. I would say Yu isn't as good as any of them leading up to the deal, but there is a market set. Now I would guess just about every team regrets that contract. Maybe the market will learn. I could see a ~23 M per year evaluation, but you only give him that 4-5 tops.
what's interesting though...the Tigers have already dumped the Verlander contract. The Red Sox would dump Price's contract right now if they could. And the Cubs are tbd
Exactly. I am interested in seeing how other teams hand out contracts in the future after seeing those failures.
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Frok
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In reply to k20dub • 10:20a, 1/12/18
AG
k20dub said:
So we should probably hear some Cole news today. According to the tweet the other day, anyways.


Sweet, something to pay attention to on a slow workday.
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iBrad
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11:35a, 1/12/18
AG
Teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are trying to avoid the luxury tax this year which makes signing Darvish tough for both of them. The deal was likely back-loaded and I wouldn't be surprised if the last two years were club options that would vest if certain requirements are met.

So something like 15, 20, 22, 24, 26, 26*, 27* with $107M guaranteed.

But it sounds like the Yankees either put a time limit on accepting the offer to prevent Yu's agent from shopping it to other clubs, or that Yu really doesn't want to pitch in NY and they were simply using the offer in negotiations with other teams. The Yankees caught on and pulled it.

Or, and I know this one is tough to believe, the reports of the offer and it being pulled are inaccurate.
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Gramercy Riffs
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:09p, 1/12/18
AG
Farmer1906 said:
High-level position players are getting 7 to 10 (one case 13) years. Just brace yourself when Altuve and Correa hit the market. We're going to have commit to these guys for a decade at 30 M each.
I think you mean, "We're going to have to say goodbye to one of these guys."
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Gramercy Riffs • 12:27p, 1/12/18
AG
Gramercy Riffs said:
Farmer1906 said:
High-level position players are getting 7 to 10 (one case 13) years. Just brace yourself when Altuve and Correa hit the market. We're going to have commit to these guys for a decade at 30 M each.
I think you mean, "We're going to have to say goodbye to one of these guys."
In my scenario, we say goodbye to Springer and Dallas.

The luxury tax in 2020 is $208,000,000. I wonder if Crane is willing to flirt with it when it comes time to pay for our guys.

Payroll History
'13 - 24.33
'14 - 44.54
'15 - 69.06
'16 - 96.64
'17 - 127.44
----- on the books
'18 - 112.23
'19 - 93.40 (need to pay Dallas, Morton, Marwin)
'20 - 48.40 (need to pay Altuve)
'21 - 13.00 (need to pay Springer)
2022 is when Correa, McCullers, & Devo hit the market.

Obviously, those low numbers don't factor in arbitration and mid-level guys that need to be replaced. But Jeff has planned to open up space when it comes time to pay for the stars.

If we spend money to keep our guys in 19 and 20 and keep adding pieces (trade, FA, and bringing up high-level types) then it's not crazy to think our WS window can stay open for the next 4 years. And when I saw the window is open, I am not talking about outside chance, I mean we're in the top 3 favored to win it.
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12:30p, 1/12/18
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k20dub
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12:39p, 1/12/18
AG
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Ag_07
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12:50p, 1/12/18
AG
WTF are the Pirates doing?

I have no idea what to think of this.
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cap-n-jack
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1:00p, 1/12/18
Well that's disappointing.
Who's the next man up on the list?
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Frok
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1:17p, 1/12/18
AG
So much for that Jon Morosi tweet that said the Astros would finalize the trade ahead of arbitration.

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gigemJTH12
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In reply to cap-n-jack • 1:23p, 1/12/18
AG
cap-n-jack said:
Well that's disappointing.
Who's the next man up on the list?
technically this one isnt over.

still think he ends up an Astro
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Farmer1906
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 2:08p, 1/12/18
AG
I bet they hold him to the deadline. Find someone desperate.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:14p, 1/12/18
AG
Farmer1906 said:
I bet they hold him to the deadline. Find someone desperate.

Yep. Good call

Otherwise why diminish his value by making him more expensive (granted $6MM is still but still)?

Or why not just let it go to arbitration? I don't get signing him to a deal before his arbitration is settled.
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iBrad
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In reply to k20dub • 2:19p, 1/12/18
AG
Some projections were $7.5, so that's not bad.

And maybe the reporters had it wrong again. Maybe the Astros wanted the Pirates to work a deal with Cole before a trade. I mean, there's generally not a huge discrepancy between teams and players. Values are pretty well defined, so I'm not sure what benefit the Astros would have received from negotiating it themselves. In fact, the package going back to the Pirates might have caused Cole's side to change their value and ask for more, increasing the likelihood of going in front of an arbitrator. What a great way to welcome the guy to the team.
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CFTXAG10
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3:32p, 1/12/18
AG
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TXAggie2011
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3:56p, 1/12/18
AG
I think players of Darvish's quality (pretty good, but not absolutely great) getting a long contract for $22 to $23 million a year is just part of the new reality of MLB.

I mean heck, Jordan Zimmermann has been and will continue to make, on average, $22 million a year.

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4:02p, 1/12/18
AG
and he's been awful for the Tigers. 4.87 ERA for 2016 and 6.08 ERA in 2017.

another example of the hazard of signing a 30-year old pitcher to a long term deal. Perhaps also an example of a national league rockstar coming to the AL
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TXAggie2011
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4:22p, 1/12/18
AG
I wouldn't call Zimmermann an NL "rockstar", really, nor would I say his ERA has gone up 2+ points because he now sees a DH.

But that's a bit secondary to what I was trying to say which wasn't meant to be all that profound. You want to get or keep guys with a track record of success, you'll have to pay up.

Some contracts will work out, some won't.
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iBrad
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In reply to CFTXAG10 • 4:31p, 1/12/18
AG
So that just leaves McHugh, who won his arbitration case last year, Giles, and Springer. Given McHugh's injury, it'll be interesting to see what the two sides come with. Also, if he is a potential piece of a Cole trade, maybe getting that one on the books was a request from the Pirates.

Also, how big was the contract we signed Marwin to last year? Had he been arbitration eligible again this year, he'd probably be making a little more than $5.1M.
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TXAggie2011
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4:33p, 1/12/18
AG
Marwin Gonzalez will make $5.125 million this year. So, about what it sounds like he'd make in arbitration.
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TXAggie2011
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4:35p, 1/12/18
AG
He made $3.725 last year which was about the midway point between the club and player arbitration offers.
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iBrad
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 5:03p, 1/12/18
AG
With Gattis getting 6.7M, I doubt Marwin would have been $5.1M, considering they're on the same clock. Marwin's 2017 performance would have bumped up his value.
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6:09p, 1/12/18
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agdaddy04
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6:28p, 1/12/18
AG
How do they not come to agreement on $400k? Someone got their feelings hurt?
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 6:46p, 1/12/18
AG
agdaddy04 said:
How do they not come to agreement on $400k? Someone got their feelings hurt?


When it's that close, as the player why wouldn't you try to get to arbitration and see if you can get a little extra cash? Not much to lose if the club isn't just going to give you what you want.
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iBrad
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 6:51p, 1/12/18
AG
agdaddy04 said:
How do they not come to agreement on $400k? Someone got their feelings hurt?

There's still time, but if I remember correctly, the team went to the arbitrator with McHugh last year over $500k.
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CoachRTM
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7:01p, 1/12/18
AG
Footy and the Braves are going to arbitration over $100k.

$2.3mil vs $2.2mil
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Ag_07
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8:41p, 1/12/18
AG
Holy hell Whitley is a monster!!

https://instagr.am/p/Bd3373YgRjx
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BowSowy
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12:12a, 1/13/18
AG
That last picture cracks me up. Carlos and AJ are in coats on a cold night and Whitley is in a baseball uniform.
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shano0603
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In reply to BowSowy • 1:54a, 1/13/18
AG
BowSowy said:
That last picture cracks me up. Carlos and AJ are in coats on a cold night and Whitley is in a baseball uniform.
Huh?
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iBrad
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In reply to shano0603 • 9:51a, 1/13/18
AG
Flip through the Instagram pics to the last one.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to shano0603 • 9:58a, 1/13/18
AG
On abc13 this morning they said none of them came prepared for the cold and Carlos had to borrow the jacket from someone
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