Astros offseason thread

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Buck Compton
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8:08a, 11/14/17
AG
Giles was a great closer for us during the season. Especially the second half...

The post-season struggles are jading your opinions. There isn't a huge need there, especially if there is any truth to the different baseballs. (And assuming the MLB fixes it going forward)

We aren't signing a big money closer (nor should we)...
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Buck Compton • 8:10a, 11/14/17
AG
Buck Compton said:
Giles was a great closer for us during the season. Especially the second half...

The post-season struggles are jading your opinions. There isn't a huge need there, especially if there is any truth to the different baseballs. (And assuming the MLB fixes it going forward)

We aren't signing a big money closer (nor should we)...
So what should we address? I think it would be a mistake to sit on our hands and not try and get better.

I will agree Giles is a good closer in the regular season. But come postseason did you see who the other teams had?
MIller
Jansen
Chapman
Betances
Allen
Kimbrel
Davis

All guys who I'd take over Giles.
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Frok
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8:13a, 11/14/17
AG
I think we need a new closer. Giles has decent stretches but he just isn't a dominant pitcher. We don't need to go out and spend big dollars on an established closer necessarily. But we should definitely bring in a new face to compete with him.
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tremble
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8:16a, 11/14/17
AG
Man, it's so tough to see what Giles did in the postseason, look at all the stories about slider-killing balls, and then not think there was a relation between the two.

Prior to the start of the postseason he had a really dominant stretch where everything was working.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:26a, 11/14/17
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Buck Compton said:
Giles was a great closer for us during the season. Especially the second half...

The post-season struggles are jading your opinions. There isn't a huge need there, especially if there is any truth to the different baseballs. (And assuming the MLB fixes it going forward)

We aren't signing a big money closer (nor should we)...
So what should we address? I think it would be a mistake to sit on our hands and not try and get better.
No one said sit on your hands. But the luxury of winning the WS this year is not blowing your wad on a $60M closer (who definitely isn't worth that).

I think you explore adding a bat to be a real DH and reduce load on a few people (McCann), but may address that through the minors.

You address the need for a solid lefty bullpen arm (maybe two). I've been thinking about a Opening Day roster post. In fact, I'll probably do that this week.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 8:31a, 11/14/17
AG
Farmer1906 said:



I will agree Giles is a good closer in the regular season. But come postseason did you see who the other teams had?
MIller
Jansen
Chapman
Betances
Allen
Kimbrel
Davis

All guys who I'd take over Giles.
Guess who we tagged multiple times along the way? Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen.

Closers are a different animal during the postseason due to over-exposure.

It could even be argued that not having Giles and being forced to rely on McCullers, Morton, etc. actually probably won us the World Series this year. And Giles was better than several of those people on your list during the second half of the year. I actually think there is some credence to the baseball issue. Sliders just didn't work (from Giles to Verlander to Yu).

It also depends on if Strom thinks a small tweak or two may put just a tad more movement on Giles' fastball.
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astros4545
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In reply to Buck Compton • 8:35a, 11/14/17
AG
Not to mention, it felt like Peacock completely abandoned his slider especially in the WS
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Ag_07
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8:36a, 11/14/17
AG
We need a BP arm. Maybe not a closer but just another solid arm along with maybe a new lefty specialist if Liriano is a no go.

I see rumblings that Britton is back on the block and BAL wants to improve their rotation. With all the arms we have that are capable of being in the rotation I wouldn't be opposed to packaging a deal for him.

It'd have to be somewhat discounted with his injury concerns, but if the price is right I'd be alright with adding him. Maybe a deal involving McHugh.

You could interchange him and Giles as closer. If there's a high leverage situation before the ninth you can throw one of them based on matchup and whoever doesn't get in can close. I think one thing we've learned is that flexibility in the pen is almost just as important as pure talent.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Buck Compton • 8:40a, 11/14/17
AG
Buck Compton said:
Farmer1906 said:



I will agree Giles is a good closer in the regular season. But come postseason did you see who the other teams had?
MIller
Jansen
Chapman
Betances
Allen
Kimbrel
Davis

All guys who I'd take over Giles.
Guess who we tagged multiple times along the way? Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen.

Closers are a different animal during the postseason due to over-exposure.

It could even be argued that not having Giles and being forced to rely on McCullers, Morton, etc. actually probably won us the World Series this year. And Giles was better than several of those people on your list during the second half of the year. I actually think there is some credence to the baseball issue. Sliders just didn't work (from Giles to Verlander to Yu).

It also depends on if Strom thinks a small tweak or two may put just a tad more movement on Giles' fastball.
If we could reply on Giles then maybe we win game 4 and we finish them off at home. It is just as easy to make that argument.

Guess who was tagged for an 11.74 ERA?
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Ag_07
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9:00a, 11/14/17
AG
Interesting.

Did a bit of research on Wade Davis and it looks like he and Giles are pretty damn close with Giles edging him out in quite a few statistical categories.

Davis/Giles

IP - 58.2/62.2
ERA - 2.30/2.30
SVs - 32/34
K/9 - 12.12/11.92
BB/9 - 4.30/3.02
HR/9 - 0.92/0.57
FIP - 3.38/2.39
WAR - 1.1/1.8

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shano0603
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In reply to Ag_07 • 9:12a, 11/14/17
AG
Ag_07 said:
Interesting.

Did a bit of research on Wade Davis and it looks like he and Giles are pretty damn close with Giles edging him out in quite a few statistical categories.

Davis/Giles

IP - 58.2/62.2
ERA - 2.30/2.30
SVs - 32/34
K/9 - 12.12/11.92
BB/9 - 4.30/3.02
HR/9 - 0.92/0.57
FIP - 3.38/2.39
WAR - 1.1/1.8


Why is k's/9 bolded? The higher number is better there 07. Maybe have another cup of coffee.
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tremble
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In reply to astros4545 • 9:13a, 11/14/17
AG
astros4545 said:
Not to mention, it felt like Peacock completely abandoned his slider especially in the WS
This was the big tell, to me. Peacock's slider was one of the best pitches in the ENTIRE MLB this season. He was throwing it 35% of the time before the post-season and then he went to 11% in the post-season.

There's no way you can tell me a pitcher is going to abandon his best pitch, one that rivaled Kershaw's slider on the year, in the postseason without other factors being involved.



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Ag_07
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In reply to shano0603 • 9:15a, 11/14/17
AG
Man tough crowd. You'd figure a WS win would lighten you guys up a bit.

Guess I was just used to bolding Giles' numbers I just went with it.

It's fixed though.
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coastalAg
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9:29a, 11/14/17
AG
Not interested in whatever Davis will cost. He wasnt the same guy in the second half or the postseason.

I would like to see us add a low cost lefty and call it a day in free agency.

Then see if we can snag a Brad Hand or Zach Britton for a reasonable trade price, otherwise stand pat and roll with what we have in the system.

I want to see if we can rehab guys like Feliz or Hoyt. We also have Paulino coming back from suspension. We should have the luxury of letting the first half play out with the bullpen and making a trade if we need to.
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W
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9:33a, 11/14/17
AG
yes, there's always the option to add a bullpen arm at the trade deadline.

and as previously mentioned...with Kyle Tucker getting closer...a long-term deal for Bruce seems unnecessary. There are other veteran left-handed sticks that could probably be had for 1 or 2 years
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 9:33a, 11/14/17
AG
Ag_07 said:
Interesting.

Did a bit of research on Wade Davis and it looks like he and Giles are pretty damn close with Giles edging him out in quite a few statistical categories.

Davis/Giles

IP - 58.2/62.2
ERA - 2.30/2.30
SVs - 32/34
K/9 - 12.12/11.92
BB/9 - 4.30/3.02
HR/9 - 0.92/0.57
FIP - 3.38/2.39
WAR - 1.1/1.8

Both were good this year.

Davis did have something like 97% Save Rate while Giles was in the high 80s I think.

Once you go to the postseason, Davis is was good this year and elite the years before. Giles looked bad, worse, and worst in the 3 rounds he pitched.

Davis has the track record and mental make up to do it on a big stage. Giles is trending the right way, but loading up on pull pen arms and having more options in high leverage situations is going to make the biggest impact on this team. I would still go hard after Britton too even though Baltimore screwed us at the deadline.
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BowSowy
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:09a, 11/14/17
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Buck Compton said:
Farmer1906 said:



I will agree Giles is a good closer in the regular season. But come postseason did you see who the other teams had?
MIller
Jansen
Chapman
Betances
Allen
Kimbrel
Davis

All guys who I'd take over Giles.
Guess who we tagged multiple times along the way? Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen.

Closers are a different animal during the postseason due to over-exposure.

It could even be argued that not having Giles and being forced to rely on McCullers, Morton, etc. actually probably won us the World Series this year. And Giles was better than several of those people on your list during the second half of the year. I actually think there is some credence to the baseball issue. Sliders just didn't work (from Giles to Verlander to Yu).

It also depends on if Strom thinks a small tweak or two may put just a tad more movement on Giles' fastball.
If we could reply on Giles then maybe we win game 4 and we finish them off at home. It is just as easy to make that argument.

Guess who was tagged for an 11.74 ERA?
No one is arguing he was awful in the world series. If there was a very clear upgrade that was available for (relatively) cheap, I think most of us would be fine going for that. However, I think a lot of us are hesitant to throw a big contract at a guy like Wade Davis (who is showing signs of regression).
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TREX01
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10:10a, 11/14/17
I think you bring in a bullpen arm via free agency but you wait to make your splash closer to the deadline. Things may open up a bit more then and allow us to go grab a guy that fits our needs.
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Frok
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In reply to TREX01 • 10:19a, 11/14/17
AG
TREX01 said:
I think you bring in a bullpen arm via free agency but you wait to make your splash closer to the deadline. Things may open up a bit more then and allow us to go grab a guy that fits our needs.


Players are cheaper in the offseason than at the deadline.

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BowSowy
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10:23a, 11/14/17
AG
This guy might be a nice lefty reliever signing:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgeeja01.shtml
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BowSowy • 10:55a, 11/14/17
AG
BowSowy said:
Farmer1906 said:
Buck Compton said:
Farmer1906 said:



I will agree Giles is a good closer in the regular season. But come postseason did you see who the other teams had?
MIller
Jansen
Chapman
Betances
Allen
Kimbrel
Davis

All guys who I'd take over Giles.
Guess who we tagged multiple times along the way? Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen.

Closers are a different animal during the postseason due to over-exposure.

It could even be argued that not having Giles and being forced to rely on McCullers, Morton, etc. actually probably won us the World Series this year. And Giles was better than several of those people on your list during the second half of the year. I actually think there is some credence to the baseball issue. Sliders just didn't work (from Giles to Verlander to Yu).

It also depends on if Strom thinks a small tweak or two may put just a tad more movement on Giles' fastball.
If we could reply on Giles then maybe we win game 4 and we finish them off at home. It is just as easy to make that argument.

Guess who was tagged for an 11.74 ERA?
No one is arguing he was awful in the world series. If there was a very clear upgrade that was available for (relatively) cheap, I think most of us would be fine going for that. However, I think a lot of us are hesitant to throw a big contract at a guy like Wade Davis (who is showing signs of regression).
That doesn't exist for high-end closer.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to BowSowy • 10:56a, 11/14/17
AG
BowSowy said:
This guy might be a nice lefty reliever signing:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgeeja01.shtml
Problem with him is that lefties actually hit him better than righties.
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TREX01
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In reply to Frok • 1:41p, 11/14/17
agree to a point. If you are talking strictly about free agency your options will usually involve a lucrative long term contract. If you make a move during the year you may be able to get a rental or have very few years to worry about on the backend of the deal. I know prospects come into play there but lunhow has done well in that regard.
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Nuke LaLoosh
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7:29a, 11/15/17
AG
Just saw a Heyman tweet saying we are looking at Lucroy. Can anyone make sense of this?
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07ag
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7:46a, 11/15/17
AG
evan gattis only played 49 games at catcher last season,, maybe looking at an upgrade or different options for the 2nd catcher?
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Ag_07
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7:49a, 11/15/17
AG
That leans toward the theory that Gattis moves into full time DH and Lucroy backs up McCann.
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Mathguy64
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8:12a, 11/15/17
AG
So what could possibly be a better opening series than horse whipping the Rangers 3 in a town in their house? Having Lucroy play and go 4-5 with 2 bombs in a win.
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Ag_07
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8:27a, 11/15/17
AG
Eh...If Lucroy is getting 5 ABs in the first 3 games I think we're trouble.

I see him as strictly a backup option to McCann.

While on the subject...I imagine McCann is still sitting on his couch icing both his knees after catching all 7 games of that WS.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Ag_07 • 8:51a, 11/15/17
AG
Hinch has given ample evidence that in the regular season he plays everybody. I would absolutely expect that whoever the position bench players are next year, they get a start in Arlington.
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Mr.Bond
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8:53a, 11/15/17
AG
Can lucroy not get a starting gig anywhere
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.




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coastalAg
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9:35a, 11/15/17
AG
Fangraphs had an interesting article on the playoff catchers and the degradation of framing skills as the season went on and McCann had the biggest drop as the season went on. I would love Lucroy for the right price.

I even saw that signing Lucroy could mean trading Gattis to free up some money.
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Ag_07
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In reply to coastalAg • 9:46a, 11/15/17
AG
coastalAg said:
Fangraphs had an interesting article on the playoff catchers and the degradation of framing skills as the season went on and McCann had the biggest drop as the season went on. I would love Lucroy for the right price.

I even saw that signing Lucroy could mean trading Gattis to free up some money.

IIRC Lucroy was God awful at framing last year. Like REAL bad. Bottom of the barrel bad.

And hell no to trading Gattis.

I'd be OK with Lucroy if we move Gattis to DH and he becomes our backup catcher. But trading Gattis and giving Lucroy his workload sounds like a big downgrade.
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coastalAg
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10:03a, 11/15/17
AG
I was trying to see if I could find Lucroy's framing stats after the move to Colorado to see if they improved.

He has been very good defensively in the past so if we think there is more in the tank I think he is a nice compliment to McCann.

Not advocating a trade of Gattis, just saw it was a possibility. I would be more than happy with him as a full time DH.
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iBrad
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In reply to coastalAg • 10:10a, 11/15/17
AG
coastalAg said:
Fangraphs had an interesting article on the playoff catchers and the degradation of framing skills as the season went on and McCann had the biggest drop as the season went on. I would love Lucroy for the right price.

I even saw that signing Lucroy could mean trading Gattis to free up some money.

I'm not sure we'd free up any money under that scenario, but rather lock us into more long-term. Gattis is due around $6.6M next year and then hits free agency. I would expect LuCroy to sign for $10M+ per season.

If we sign LuCroy, I would expect a near 50-50 split at catcher with McCann if not 60-40 to LuCroy. I'd guess LuCroy would also be DHing, and of course, Gattis would be traded. LuCroy would definitely add to our decreased strikeout numbers, but seems like an odd fit until other pieces shake out.
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Ag_07
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10:11a, 11/15/17
AG
Yeah I don't know what happened once he moved to COL but here's an excerpt from a fangraphs article from right when he was traded.

Quote:
What made Lucroy popular on sites like this back in the day was his defense. More specifically, analysis revealed that Lucroy was one hell of a pitch-framer. Let me cut the long story short: The best framing numbers, these days, are available at Baseball Prospectus. According to those numbers, this season, Lucroy has been the least-valuable framer around. He had already declined substantially from his peak, but I don't think anyone expected *this*. Peak Lucroy was a reasonable MVP candidate, and he was a power-hitting catcher capable of making his own strike zone. Lucroy now, for whatever reason, no longer hits for power, and he no longer steals strikes. You can blame age if you want, and age tends to be a part of anything like this, but Lucroy's drop has been atypically severe. For that reason, it's also mysterious. It's hard to accept that Lucroy might just be toast these days, given what he was not that long ago, and so the Rockies are happy to take this chance. Perhaps Lucroy can bounce back to something better than this. Perhaps he'll find some stretch-run magic.

It would be interesting to see if there was any improvement after leaving the cesspool of Arlington.
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