Sure wish Sipp would've gone insteadmathguy86 said:
That is a class act by Musgrove. Straight out, grade AA class.
Astros offseason thread
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Last: 6 yr ago by spadilly
Marvin said:Ag_07 said:CSWendt said:
The tandem rotation talk is just fantasy. Hinch isn't going to go to tandem starts. Nobody does that, and for a reason. It isn't practical to have roughly 7 starting pitchers.
This.
It works in the playoffs when you get travel days and time off between series but it doesn't feasible to implement over an entire season.
I think even Hinch said himself during the WS that he likes it during the playoffs but doesn't see it catching on during the regular season.
And IIRC the farm system no longer does it.
Whether by design or necessity, Hinch basically used a tandem system for the majority of LMJ's starts last year. In 2017, at an all-star level, he never pitched in the 8th inning, only saw the 7th inning three times and failed to start the 5th inning a whopping seven times. Generally in those games, as evidenced by his all-star selection, it was his pitch count more often than his effectiveness that instigated the change.
No one is advocating a tandem staff across the board, but I could definitely see it with LMJ, given his lack of efficiency and the additional arm quality in the pen. It's basically already happening but without a defined reliever.
April - 5 starts, 29 IP, < 5 1x, >6 2x, 16.34 pitches per inning ERA 4.34, xFIP 2.92
May - 6 starts, 36.1 IP, <5 0x, >6 2x, 15.94 pitches per inning, ERA 0.99, XFIP 2.93
Lance hits the DL in mid June.
June - 4 starts, 21.2 IP, <5 1x, >6 1x, 16.61 pitches per inning, ERA 3.32, xFIP 2.04
July - 4 starts, 18.2 IP, <5 3x, >6 0x, 20.30 pitches per inning, ERA 9.64, xFIP 4.79
Long DL Stint
Sept - 3 starts, 13 IP, <5 3x, >6 0x, 17.08 pitches per inning, ERA 6.92, xFIP 3.94
Playoffs - 5 games, 20.2 IP, 15.48 pitches per inning, ERA 2.61, xFIP 4.41
Lance's efficiency was fine early on. I don't know league averages, but 15-17 pitches an inning is fine. That will get you thru 6 no problem. Not everyone can be the workhorse that Verlander is. Guys just aren't built like that often. The injury or time off or something clearly bothered him. He went from ace to terrible really quickly. It was a little tough coming back from so much time off, but he was back to near ace stuff when it mattered most.
The kid is not even 25 yet. I think you ride the waves with him. The depth you've built at SP affords you the opportunity to.
I think we are not placing enough values on how a guy performs in a role. The season is 162 games long. The reason guys have roles assigned to them is so they can grow comfortable in them.
The natural grind of 162 games does not allow for constant changing of roles. Mangers for decades have not stuck to traditional roles out of tradition. They've done it because they know nontraditional approaches can't hold up for 162 games.
The shift is totally different. The data was not available for years to even make that kind of decision.
The natural grind of 162 games does not allow for constant changing of roles. Mangers for decades have not stuck to traditional roles out of tradition. They've done it because they know nontraditional approaches can't hold up for 162 games.
The shift is totally different. The data was not available for years to even make that kind of decision.
Hey, I'm not arguing his ability when in the game! All I'm saying is that he's never shown the consistency to make it out of the 5th inning. For a stretch here and there, absolutely. And when he's in the game, he usually is effective. My point is that if he is gold for five innings, Hinch might consider planning for that. Or not. It's just an opinion! 
Wouldn't that be true with most starters?
League avg is 5.5 IP/GS.
Astros were 5.6 IP/GS.
McCullers was 5.4 IP/GS.
League avg is 5.5 IP/GS.
Astros were 5.6 IP/GS.
McCullers was 5.4 IP/GS.
Didn't see this posted yet.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-might-be-the-perfect-team-for-gerrit-cole/
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-might-be-the-perfect-team-for-gerrit-cole/
Farmer1906 said:
Wouldn't that be true with most starters?
League avg is 5.5 IP/GS.
Astros were 5.6 IP/GS.
McCullers was 5.4 IP/GS.
Sure, it is. Like many teams, the Astros had multiple starts by fill-in pitchers. They don't normally last long in any given game. I'm just saying that pairing two four to five inning knowns like LMJ and Peacock, when everyone else is healthy, would create a formidable lineup.
Or, we can just say that everything will remain as is and have nothing to discuss, haha. It was just a thought, with some merit or not. I'll go back to Billy's board now and leave the baseball discussion to you experts!
Looking forward to a great season. Go Stros!
If Darvish goes to the Yankees and has a good year and they meet the Astros again in the ACLS, can they afford to start him?
No that's ridiculous. And Darsh has historically solid numbers against the stros. He was just tipping his pitches at the worst possible time (for them, not the good guys). I'm sure he's already corrected the issue
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Farmer1906 said:
Didn't see this posted yet.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-might-be-the-perfect-team-for-gerrit-cole/
Fangraphs has such quality content, and I agree with the conclusion that he'll likely be throwing more curves and sinkers next season. Stoked about this trade; it feels like Luhnow was able to buy (relatively) low here.
good article by ESPN on bad contracts. This is one of the big areas where Luhnow is excelling. Avoiding the horrible long term big money contracts.
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85090/bad-money-the-worst-contract-investments-on-all-30-teams
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85090/bad-money-the-worst-contract-investments-on-all-30-teams
Has he had the opportunity to give one of those contracts? We will see soon enough.
W said:
good article by ESPN on bad contracts. This is one of the big areas where Luhnow is excelling. Avoiding the horrible long term big money contracts.
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85090/bad-money-the-worst-contract-investments-on-all-30-teams
Quote:
Houston Astros -- Tony Sipp ($6M), Jonathan Singleton ($2M): They're good, they're smart, and they haven't been sucked into any bad contracts. Heck, they're even getting the Yankees and Tigers to pay a combined $13.5 million of Brian McCann's and Justin Verlander's money.
Bingo.
adding Cole via trade instead of Darvish or Arrieta (via big contract) is one example
Very true. We passed on Edwin & didn't match the Mets with Cespedes last off-season too.
The time will come though.
The time will come though.
He did sign some guys to short deals that were team friendly.
Feldman back in the day
Beltran last year
Morton and his current deal
Honestly his worse contract decision has been Sipp's deal after just one good year. And even then it's only 3 years.
Feldman back in the day
Beltran last year
Morton and his current deal
Honestly his worse contract decision has been Sipp's deal after just one good year. And even then it's only 3 years.
This is honestly feeling more and more like we won't be resigning Keuchel. Depending on the market. If he's getting offers of 5+ years at 100 million, I can't see us being a player.
shano0603 said:
This is honestly feeling more and more like we won't be resigning Keuchel. Depending on the market. If he's getting offers of 5+ years at 100 million, I can't see us being a player.
If he commands that type of money I wouldn't touch that contract personally.
Just my 2 cents but I think DK and springer are the 2 we are going to be most willing to let walk if their contact negotiations get too high.
Altuve, Bergman and Correa are the ones that are going to be tough to replace. Power hitting outfielders can be found in our own farm system or multiple other areas.
It'll be interesting to see what Arrieta signs for, because he and Keuchel are similar cases of a former Cy Young winner that has fallen off. While Keuchel's would appear to be more injury related, that's still going to be a concern for anyone signing him. He needs to show that he can return to form and stay healthy. Another lengthy stint on the DL and his value will drop. If that happens, you really have to question if resigning him is worth it.
There's a lot to keep an eye on this year that will impact resigning Keuchel:
It'll be interesting...
There's a lot to keep an eye on this year that will impact resigning Keuchel:
- Does Keuchel pitch well and remain healthy
- Does Morton pitch well and remain healthy...he'll be cheaper and more likely to sign a shorter term deal
- How do the young guys develop (Whitley, Martes, Paulino)
- Can LMJ be a rotation piece, or do more DL stints have him looking at a relief role
- Do we keep McHugh, who has two more years of team control and can bridge a gap if needed
- How does Cole fair...is he a better candidate to sign in 2020 than Keuchel in 2019
- Will the loaded free agent class next year lead to a lot of big spending on other guys, leaving fewer candidates for a Keuchel
It'll be interesting...
Why wouldn't he command that?shano0603 said:
This is honestly feeling more and more like we won't be resigning Keuchel. Depending on the market. If he's getting offers of 5+ years at 100 million, I can't see us being a player.
He dealt with some injuries, yes, but 3/4 years have been good to great. He's proven in the playoffs. His market value is likely going to be 22-25 ande he's going to want 6.
You're not joking. It's an impressive and deep list of FAs.Quote:
Will the loaded free agent class next year lead to a lot of big spending on other guys, leaving fewer candidates for a Keuchel
Keuchel had a 2.9 era last season in 23 stars... Prior year you could say that, but I believe it was due to him having to try and pitch through injuries. Keuchel is also 2 years younger and almost 50 less starts than Jake. If Dallas has a year with an ERA 3.5 or under, and stays healthy, I think you will see him get a big contract.iBrad said:
It'll be interesting to see what Arrieta signs for, because he and Keuchel are similar cases of a former Cy Young winner that has fallen off. While Keuchel's would appear to be more injury related, that's still going to be a concern for anyone signing him. He needs to show that he can return to form and stay healthy. Another lengthy stint on the DL and his value will drop. If that happens, you really have to question if resigning him is worth it.
There's a lot to keep an eye on this year that will impact resigning Keuchel:
- Does Keuchel pitch well and remain healthy
- Does Morton pitch well and remain healthy...he'll be cheaper and more likely to sign a shorter term deal
- How do the young guys develop (Whitley, Martes, Paulino)
- Can LMJ be a rotation piece, or do more DL stints have him looking at a relief role
- Do we keep McHugh, who has two more years of team control and can bridge a gap if needed
- How does Cole fair...is he a better candidate to sign in 2020 than Keuchel in 2019
- Will the loaded free agent class next year lead to a lot of big spending on other guys, leaving fewer candidates for a Keuchel
It'll be interesting...
Keuchel will be the top FA pitcher. He's absolutely going to have suitors for top dollar.iBrad said:
It'll be interesting to see what Arrieta signs for, because he and Keuchel are similar cases of a former Cy Young winner that has fallen off. While Keuchel's would appear to be more injury related, that's still going to be a concern for anyone signing him. He needs to show that he can return to form and stay healthy. Another lengthy stint on the DL and his value will drop. If that happens, you really have to question if resigning him is worth it.
There's a lot to keep an eye on this year that will impact resigning Keuchel:
- Does Keuchel pitch well and remain healthy
- Does Morton pitch well and remain healthy...he'll be cheaper and more likely to sign a shorter term deal
- How do the young guys develop (Whitley, Martes, Paulino)
- Can LMJ be a rotation piece, or do more DL stints have him looking at a relief role
- Do we keep McHugh, who has two more years of team control and can bridge a gap if needed
- How does Cole fair...is he a better candidate to sign in 2020 than Keuchel in 2019
- Will the loaded free agent class next year lead to a lot of big spending on other guys, leaving fewer candidates for a Keuchel
It'll be interesting...
What left handed bats are still available as a FA?
And if we don't sign one now who might be a mid season trade playing for a bad team to watch?
And if we don't sign one now who might be a mid season trade playing for a bad team to watch?
I think our only hope with Keuchel is if he takes a franchise friendly deal. I don't think it's absurd to think that happens, but we won't pay what others are willing to pay.
WelchAg said:
I think our only hope with Keuchel is if he takes a franchise friendly deal. I don't think it's absurd to think that happens, but we won't pay what others are willing to pay.
Franchise friendly as in the Mets offer 6 year 160 while we offer 6 year 150. Were going to have to get close.
I think Adam Lind would make sense if the Nats buyout his contract. Would be very Astros friendlyAgnzona said:
What left handed bats are still available as a FA?
And if we don't sign one now who might be a mid season trade playing for a bad team to watch?
Keuchel will be 31 years old on opening day 2019.
so a 6-year deal would cover ages 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36.
as previously posted...Cole and perhaps Whitley too are insurance for the Astros.
so a 6-year deal would cover ages 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36.
as previously posted...Cole and perhaps Whitley too are insurance for the Astros.
I just don't see Lunhow committing to that kind of contract. I think we should all enjoy our last year watching Keuchel at Minute Maid.
Agreed - and hope he's opening day starter again this year for that reason.
Already getting a little dusty thinking of the ovation DK will get when he's left the mound after potentially his last start at MMP.
Hopefully it's in game 4 of the World Series.
Already getting a little dusty thinking of the ovation DK will get when he's left the mound after potentially his last start at MMP.
Hopefully it's in game 4 of the World Series.
BarryProfit said:
Agreed - and hope he's opening day starter again this year for that reason.
Already getting a little dusty thinking of the ovation DK will get when he's left the mound after potentially his last start at MMP.
Hopefully it's in game 4 of the World Series.
Shiiiiittttt we getting home field advantage this year brah
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
All we have to do is win a second straight WS and force Keuchel to make a decision. Play for three in a row or take the money some place else.
So we're exactly 4 weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting? I haven't been this excited for a baseball season in a long, long time.
Fastest offseason ever.
Farmer1906 said:
Fastest offseason ever.
That's because our season has never ended so late.
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