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It's here (COVID 19)

406,876 Views | 3356 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by TexasAggie008
TxAgLaw03RW
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AG
Didn't we restart elective procedures today? Could that explain bed usage?
FTAco07
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I know ventilator capacity has been a big topic of discussion, but based on the doctors on the Texags COVID board it seems like the current best thinking is to avoid putting patients on ventilators at all cost.
Phat32
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Wozlaw said:

Didn't we restart elective procedures today? Could that explain bed usage?


Seems like that would be the kind of context that would be important for the mayor to add.
TxAgLaw03RW
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Nah, makes too much sense and adds appropriate context. We don't have time for that right now.

But I am curious if that explains the jump. I know a number of docs were lining up surgeries once the date of resuming elective procedures was given last week, I'm just not sure if they have actually started and would impact this number.
powerbelly
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https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/texas-prepares-to-resume-elective-medical-procedures/287-995bc2d3-ce21-4ecf-9a9c-b7e571f0652e

I don't know how many started today, but they are allowed again.
FTAco07
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While we're talking context nobody has any idea what the normal bed usage was for hospitals and ICUs pre-COVID. I would be surprised if the numbers shown in the mayor's updates aren't well below a normal occupancy. I can't imagine hospitals, or any business, consistently operating at 50-60% capacity.
OKC~Ag
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FTAco07 said:

While we're talking context nobody has any idea what the normal bed usage was for hospitals and ICUs pre-COVID. I would be surprised if the numbers shown in the mayor's updates aren't well below a normal occupancy. I can't imagine hospitals, or any business, consistently operating at 50-60% capacity.
My educated wild guess would be close to 90% hospital bed occupancy pre-Covid 19. If not 90% occupancy close to 80 plus to 90% to truly be a viable healthy hospital entity.

Hospitals started to clear out by mutual consensus from both patients/family and medical staff in anticipation as well as to reduce patient exposure to Covid-19.

I think hospital's bed count should slowly creep back up as general medical malady can't be quarantined forever and people will need medical services like surgery and procedures.
MGS
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MGS said:

Down to 173 active cases in Collin County Looks like it peaked (226 cases) there on Apr 9th.
Now down to 149 active cases. (and 17 hospitalized)

By the way, a nursing home in McKinney contributed to 8 of Collin County's 14 deaths.
Phat32
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149 cases is not news worthy unless it's Ebola. Next.
agcrock2005
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yukmonkey said:

149 cases is not news worthy unless it's Ebola. Next.
No kidding. New study just came out showing the records from 5,700 patients within one hospital system (housed most patients in the country so far throughout pandemic)...94% of the patients had "more than one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)."

Nearly all NY coronavirus patients suffered underlying health issue, study finds
gomerschlep
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FTAco07 said:

While we're talking context nobody has any idea what the normal bed usage was for hospitals and ICUs pre-COVID. I would be surprised if the numbers shown in the mayor's updates aren't well below a normal occupancy. I can't imagine hospitals, or any business, consistently operating at 50-60% capacity.
This is incorrect. All hospitals in North Texas report on bed usage for every unit, including ICU's daily. It was started as a means to track hospital capacity in the event of a mass casualty incident. This has been done for years.
Bones08
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agcrock2005 said:

yukmonkey said:

149 cases is not news worthy unless it's Ebola. Next.
No kidding. New study just came out showing the records from 5,700 patients within one hospital system (housed most patients in the country so far throughout pandemic)...94% of the patients had "more than one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)."

Nearly all NY coronavirus patients suffered underlying health issue, study finds

Important to note that it seems the diseases most highlighted in the article are hypertension and obesity. Looking it up there are approximately 70 million Americans with hypertension and 70 million Americans who are obese (with some obvious overlap between the two groups).

Article still seems accurate, just wanted to highlight that because when people (myself included) hear the word disease they may think of something more "severe" and not hypertension and obesity.
DFWTLR
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gomerschlep said:

FTAco07 said:

While we're talking context nobody has any idea what the normal bed usage was for hospitals and ICUs pre-COVID. I would be surprised if the numbers shown in the mayor's updates aren't well below a normal occupancy. I can't imagine hospitals, or any business, consistently operating at 50-60% capacity.
This is incorrect. All hospitals in North Texas report on bed usage for every unit, including ICU's daily. It was started as a means to track hospital capacity in the event of a mass casualty incident. This has been done for years.
So what are typical bed usage for north texas? Or where can someone find that info?
gomerschlep
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Not sure on the numbers over a period of time, I can only see them daily, but I'm sure that data is kept somewhere. I can tell you its generally much higher in the winter.
DFWTLR
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What about a year ago today?
gomerschlep
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Like I said, I only have access to todays numbers.
tysker
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Quote:

Important to note that it seems the diseases most highlighted in the article are hypertension and obesity. Looking it up there are approximately 70 million Americans with hypertension and 70 million Americans who are obese (with some obvious overlap between the two groups).

Hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/

And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. Big difference in health outcome from a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35.
hatchback
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Hood
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hatchback said:



This is my schtick! Find yer own content to copy/paste!

Given the flat line of ICU/Ventilator usage, the increase in beds has to be elective/other emergency procedures starting again.
hatchback
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Sorry.
Proposition Joe
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Not going to chime in either way on what direction this is going, but I think "underlying conditions" can be tossed in with all of the other poor methods we've used during this pandemic to gather and report data.

Almost every article reports deaths with vague "underlying conditions" and it does is instill a false sense of security to people thinking these must all be victims that were severely compromised when reality is the majority of Americans have "underlying conditions".

Wish they'd just report the #'s, the ages,etc... you know, the stuff that actually can be evaluated.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Hood said:

This is my schtick! Find yer own content to copy/paste!
tysker
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I think more information is always better and more should be provided to the public, not less. Information is sunlight and it keeps everyone from being in the dark. Fear of the virus has as much to do with the fact we dont have a lot of clear data and lack of publicly disclosed information only adds to that fear.

Also a majority of Americans at risk but a small minority are at a high-risk for severe illness as its relates to COVID. Here is the list of high-risk factors presented by the CDC. A large list for sure but not one that encapsulates a majority of Americans.
Phat32
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There are only two reasons to not provide transparent, thorough data:

- You are stupid/ignorant
- You have an agenda

For our local politicians, I'm not sure which one is the bigger issue.
Proposition Joe
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The point is that information doesnt tell us anything. "Victim had underlying conditions. Like most Americans."
DFWTLR
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Does it matter if 1% or 100% of Americans have underlying conditions? With the info given wouldn't you take more precautions if you were someone with underlying conditions? The recent study from a New York hospital showed 94% of their Covid patients had more than 1 underlying condition, I would say that is significant information that is helpful to the public.
tysker
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Proposition Joe said:

The point is that information doesnt tell us anything. "Victim had underlying conditions. Like most Americans."
I dont think that is true at all. Correct me if I'm wrong but "underlying conditions" is a term of art that has a medical purpose. In the case of COVID "underlying conditions" generally include diabetes, heart disease, obesity, cancer and kidney disease. Being over 65 is also a high-risk "underlying condition."

That is not "like most Americans." Not even close.

Again from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/underlying-conditions.html

Quote:

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including
  • People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma
  • People who have serious heart conditions
  • People who are immunocompromised
    • Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications.
  • People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)
  • People with diabetes
  • People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis
  • People with liver disease

Proposition Joe
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tysker said:

Proposition Joe said:

The point is that information doesnt tell us anything. "Victim had underlying conditions. Like most Americans."
I dont think that is true at all. Correct me if I'm wrong but "underlying conditions" is a term of art that has a medical purpose. In the case of COVID "underlying conditions" generally include diabetes, heart disease, obesity, cancer and kidney disease. Being over 65 is also a high-risk "underlying condition."

That is not "like most Americans." Not even close.

Again from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/underlying-conditions.html

Quote:

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including
  • People with chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma
  • People who have serious heart conditions
  • People who are immunocompromised
    • Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications.
  • People with severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 40 or higher)
  • People with diabetes
  • People with chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis
  • People with liver disease



Notice the "including" comment.

So all of those things... and then a whole slew of things minor than that.

When you factor in the # of people who are diagnosed with all of those conditions and then consider all of the un-diagnosed that the condition is discovered when they are hospitalized (eg. hypertension)... Then yeah, more than half of America has "underlying conditions".

It's far too generic a phrase to use to give us any real useful data -- instead it instills a false sense of security in many people that assume they are healthy because they don't have diabetes or liver disease but unfortunately don't realize that they too likely have an "underlying condition".

There needs to be a narrower category akin to a "serious underlying condition" so that we can separate the diabetes and heart conditions from the people with mild asthma or hyper-tension.
Phat32
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Context is everything with data. If I went to my executive team with this type of hospital data, I'd get run out of town for no context.

Not sure which poster it was that mentioned there is no way hospitals operate at 50% bed capacity if they like to make money.
Ag CPA
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I've kind of quit paying attention to the new cases given the significant undercount that's starting to be validated in CA and NY, but its interesting that Tarrant's numbers are starting to go through the roof; don't know if it is due to more tests, hotspots (nursing homes) being identified or what.
agcrock2005
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I would think it's testing going through the roof so positive cases would as well.
Hood
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Bed usage going up. Could be elective procedures restarting. The hospitals will start going bankrupt themselves if they don't restart their normal revenue streams.
DFWTLR
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I saw yesterday 41 inmates in Tarrant county tested positive, and some nursing home are having outbreaks. I'm sure that with additional testing, but their graph still looks odd, from 50/60 a day, then a few days below 15 and now over 100 for a few days.
TexasAggie008
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Open

It

Up
Phat32
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The jail and nursing home numbers tell you all you need to know about how this spreads.

You aren't getting it at the beach or walking your dog. It's sustained, close, indoor contact.
 
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