"You have to understand, this was a cold and calculated gamble. The Iranians were planning to move their entire nuclear and missile industry underground, in a way that would have made it nearly impenetrable. In any case, we would have attacked this yearbut with the Americans by our side, there was no dilemma."
"The main achievements of the war are the severe damage to ballistic missiles and their production. This time, after hitting the entire production chain, it will be much harder for them to recover."
"It's also worth remembering," the official added, "that for years, the nightmare scenario in Israel was a multi-front war with hundreds of casualties on the home front. Last year, in 'Rising Lion,' in 12 days of war against Iran alone, there were 30 fatalities. Now, in a war with three times as many fronts and three times as many enemies, there are 20. What is that if not proof that 'Rising Lion' was not in vainand neither was 'Roaring Lion'?"
The mission to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles was a game changer, but not in the way Israel expected. Last Friday afternoon, Israel struck a critical part of Iran's ballistic missile industryits two largest steel production plantsbut to their surprise, found the strike affected far more than their military.
Steel facilities sit in a gray area, somewhere between military targetslike missile factories or nuclear sitesand civilian targets, such as water desalination facilities. The Iranian industry is even grayer; there is no part of the economy that the regime has not penetrated.
One of the factories was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2018, described as a critical source of funding for the Basij militia. Yet its targeting by Israel was to stop it from producing the metals used in ballistic missiles, not its cashflow.
Iran is the largest steel producer in the Middle East and ranks among the top 10 globally. Those two factories alone account for billions of dollars in revenue and about three percent of Iranian GDP. The impact on the economy was a side effect Israel accepted.
It now seems that the side effect may have been more powerful than the primary one. According to IDF intelligence, the regime's political leadership now believes there is no way to repair the war damage; Iran simply lacks sufficient funds.
It reportedly has broken the spirit of many in the regime. The assessment is that, given a prolonged economic recovery after the war that will inevitably consume the vast majority of state budgets, massive protests will erupt.
It appears that Trump is reading the same intelligence, which may explain why the threats in his ultimatums have shifted from military targets to the gray area of civilian/military infrastructure, specifically Iran's energy and oil facilities.
Still, as the minister told me regarding regime change at the outset of the war, "there were more optimistic and less optimistic assessments, but no one could guarantee that while bombs were falling on Tehran, the masses would take to the streets. There is no doubt that the war has brought the regime closer to its endbut I cannot tell you whether that will happen before Trump finishes his term, or before Netanyahu finishes his."