Political fallout and arguments regarding the US-Israeli action against Iran 022824

123,599 Views | 1404 Replies | Last: 40 min ago by The Collective
KentK93
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Bessent explaining policies on oil:


https://www.dailywire.com/news/bessent-delivers-reality-check-on-oil-slams-crisis-narrative
Ag with kids
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KentK93 said:

Bessent explaining policies on oil:


https://www.dailywire.com/news/bessent-delivers-reality-check-on-oil-slams-crisis-narrative

Quote:

Regarding the disruption in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Bessent revealed a strategy of calculated leniency to keep the world supplied. "We are seeing more and more of the fuel ships start to go through; the Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we've let that happen to supply the rest of the world," he explained. "We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out. And for now, we're fine with that. We want the world to be well-supplied."


If that oil has already been paid for, then letting it go just helps out the market.

If it has NOT been paid for, I doubt we will let it be...

So, Win-Win for the world. The latter is FAFO for Iran.
Ag83
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aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What exactly is our Navy doing to reopen it? And if we have already won the war, why is it still in need of reopening? And why is NATO on the hook for actions that we initiated?

The European nations of NATO do not have energy self sufficiency. Their gas prices are already two or three times higher than ours. Thus they have much more exposure to shortages crippling their economies (such as they are already somewhat crippled.)

And if they need to do that for that reason, they are free to do so. Why should they feel obligated because Trump says they should though?
Science Denier
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Ag83 said:

aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What exactly is our Navy doing to reopen it? And if we have already won the war, why is it still in need of reopening? And why is NATO on the hook for actions that we initiated?

The European nations of NATO do not have energy self sufficiency. Their gas prices are already two or three times higher than ours. Thus they have much more exposure to shortages crippling their economies (such as they are already somewhat crippled.)

And if they need to do that for that reason, they are free to do so. Why should they feel obligated because Trump says they should though?

Trump is saying that they need to support us because of that reason. He should stop the oil flow and see how loud they scream in a few weeks. See how long it takes for them to do so freely.
MouthBQ98
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Nobody else has the logistics to operate a few ships doing real work in combat conditions far outside their territorial waters but us. They also don't have the budget or the political will.

I don't think anyone really expected Iran to start spamming weapons at everyone in reach to try to save themselves, though it should have been planned for. The reality is the USA is going to have to patrol the hell out of that stretch until there is a cessation of hostilities and shoot anything that pops up that we don't like, and help other ships get through.
Old McDonald
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Science Denier said:

Ag83 said:

aggiehawg said:

Quote:

What exactly is our Navy doing to reopen it? And if we have already won the war, why is it still in need of reopening? And why is NATO on the hook for actions that we initiated?

The European nations of NATO do not have energy self sufficiency. Their gas prices are already two or three times higher than ours. Thus they have much more exposure to shortages crippling their economies (such as they are already somewhat crippled.)

And if they need to do that for that reason, they are free to do so. Why should they feel obligated because Trump says they should though?

Trump is saying that they need to support us because of that reason. He should stop the oil flow and see how loud they scream in a few weeks. See how long it takes for them to do so freely.
more likely he'd cave to domestic pressure on gas prices first. the euros don't really rely on crude or LNG going through hormuz, disrupting flow just raises commodity prices for the whole world, us included.
TxAG#2011
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Americans are getting killed and also paying for the solution to Europe's problem?

These pro-war arguments are getting dumber by the day.
MouthBQ98
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It's better than the Bidenflation oil and gas prices which were about 25-30% higher than today, and without a war being involved. We're only a bit over 2 weeks in. Of course the futures markets were going to spaz out and overreact as they always do. Thing will settle down, and it might be unpleasant for a while until it does. Iran can't sustain this pace of warfare all that long, and they MUST have normal oil income and soon, as it is something like 85% of their economy. They absolutely will collapse if the Islamic Republic's violent outbursts against anyone they can reach discourage too much of their own export business and trade. The last thing you do with a spoiled child is give into the tantrum, or you will only encourage more.
2-3 more weeks of this and we will break them, and maybe they will be willing to negotiate in better faith or maybe their lack of solutions for their own population results in a change of management over there.

We have time. And if Europe and Asia want this over faster, they need to get off their pathetic lazy useless asses and encourage Iran to behave instead of supplying them hope that their tantrum ov violence and terrorism will work.
Ag83
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MouthBQ98 said:

It's better than the Bidenflation oil and gas prices which were about 25-30% higher than today, and without a war being involved. We're only a bit over 2 weeks in. Of course the futures markets were going to spaz out and overreact as they always do. Thing will settle down, and it might be unpleasant for a while until it does. Iran can't sustain this pace of warfare all that long, and they MUST have normal oil income and soon, as it is something like 85% of their economy. They absolutely will collapse if the Islamic Republic's violent outbursts against anyone they can reach discourage too much of their own export business and trade. The last thing you do with a spoiled child is give into the tantrum, or you will only encourage more.
2-3 more weeks of this and we will break them, and maybe they will be willing to negotiate in better faith or maybe their lack of solutions for their own population results in a change of management over there.

We have time. And if Europe and Asia want this over faster, they need to get off their pathetic lazy useless asses and encourage Iran to behave instead of supplying them hope that their tantrum ov violence and terrorism will work.



Reckon we'll see how that works out (not like we have any choice right?). Hope you're right. But you still didn't directly answer any of my questions...
samurai_science
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NATO countries can't even stop people crossing the ocean into their own counties, good luck getting them to help in the straight.
nortex97
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samurai_science said:

NATO countries can't even stop people crossing the ocean into their own counties, good luck getting them to help in the straight.

Most nato countries that matter at all are governed by folks who have been championing de-industrializing via high energy prices for decades anyway. These are not our allies at all.

More or less these are the types akin to the Democrats here (see: California).

It would not surprise me one iota to wake up tomorrow to read about folks in Brussels trying to find a way to support the IRGC financially.
aggiehawg
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Not sure if this is the best thread in which to post this but stumbled upon this channel and watched a few podcasts. Because of the detail they are about half an hour but really gives an education about how the Mossad operates. Fascinating.






ETA: Ooops, wrong youtube, corrected now.
richardag
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PaulsBunions said:



Thomas Massie is ignorant of the Constitution and requirements of war. This was argued out by the Founding Fathers.
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
richardag
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flashplayer said:

From the other thread.

Yukon Cornelius said:

We aren't the world's police and we have a constitution. That requires going to war to be decided by Congress not the president. If the case is so certain that doing things the correct action why not put it to Congress? Reason being is th constitution is being walked on again.


If you left it to any Congress of the past 15-20 years we would never declare war even if we needed to. Having the ability for our presidents to be nimble and act without approval is probably going to end up being important to our survival. Because by the time the partisans agree on anything it will likely be too late.

Even Pearl Harbor and the Phillipines were preventable disasters because our leaders didn't have the political stomach to go on offense.

Yukon Cornelius is wrong and ignorant about Congress approval is required to go to war. This was hashed out by our Founding Fathers. The original verbiage was Congress has the power to MAKE War. Several Founding Fathers pointed out the inherent problems with this since deciding to make war may need immediate attention and may take Congress days/weeks/months to act.
The language was changed that Congress can Declare War, but doesn't prohibit the President from military actions going to war.
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
richardag
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Phatbob said:

Old McDonald said:

so tldr:

trump 2024: no new wars
republicans: hell yeah
trump 2025: just gonna bomb Iran's nuke sites real quick
republicans: hell yeah
trump 2026: we're doing a regime change war in iran, some of you may die but that's a risk I'm willing to take
republicans: hell yeah
everyone else: hey we don't want another forever war in the middle east
republicans: cry more libs

This was always a fantasy by some MAGA. Trump was never as dovish as they projected him to be. He is, however, way more hesitant and better at it than his most recent predecessors

Exactly, took a couple of months to eliminate the ISIS Caliphate that President Obama said could not be defeated.
We really need to rewrite our laws concerning libel and slander.
flown-the-coop
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eater of the list said:

flown-the-coop said:

eater of the list said:

Dan Scott said:



One challenge with this request is the broader diplomatic context.

Many of the countries being asked to help secure the Strait of Hormuz are long-standing U.S. allies, but relations with several of them have been strained in recent years due to trade disputes, tariffs, and political criticism.

Regardless of one's view of those policies, they inevitably affect trust and cooperation. When alliances feel transactional or adversarial, it becomes harder to rally partners around high-risk military or security initiatives.

Them taking advantage of the generosity of the United States is what has made the relationship feel transactional or adversarial. That is sort of the point of Trump's rhetoric here.

Come to our aid now or do not rely on us in the future. It's our allies acting like frickturds, DJT is pointing it out and telling them it's time to show if we have an alliance… or not.

I'm not arguing allies shouldn't contribute. My point was about how alliances function diplomatically.

Cooperation in high-risk operations usually depends on trust and predictability over time. If the messaging becomes "prove the alliance right now or lose U.S. support," partners often become more cautious, not more willing to jump into a conflict.

So the issue isn't reciprocity, it's whether the approach strengthens or weakens the coalition needed to do something like secure the Strait of Hormuz.

So Trump calling them out versus fellating their 2 hole is an issue? Only the one way ass munching by the Americans is how coalitions are built?

May want to curl-alt-delete the thought process here as it simply does NOT add up.
flown-the-coop
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NormanEH said:

Trunp demanding begging "allies" to bail him out of the mess he unilaterally made. If I'm one of the allied nations I let he squirm as long as possible. Consequences of going it alone.


FIFY so it actually reflects reality.
hph6203
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Well then.

Also.

flown-the-coop
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richardag said:

PaulsBunions said:



Thomas Massie is ignorant of the Constitution and requirements of war. This was argued out by the Founding Fathers.
docb
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MouthBQ98 said:

Nobody else has the logistics to operate a few ships doing real work in combat conditions far outside their territorial waters but us. They also don't have the budget or the political will.

I don't think anyone really expected Iran to start spamming weapons at everyone in reach to try to save themselves, though it should have been planned for. The reality is the USA is going to have to patrol the hell out of that stretch until there is a cessation of hostilities and shoot anything that pops up that we don't like, and help other ships get through.

Hitting refineries/oil infrastructure is exactly what I thought they would do to create global chaos. I said this when it first started. I have no idea how this was not taken into account in their planning. I hope they are taking into account protecting our domestic oil/gas capabilities. I suspect they will try to hit it at some point.
AlaskanAg99
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The Europeans have put themselves into an incredibly bad spot. Through all their idiotic "Green" energy plans, shutting down their nuke programs, tying themselves to their sworn enemy Russia and chronically underfunding their military.

Europe (mostly) are not our allies and they cannot be trusted.
aTm '99
flown-the-coop
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docb said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Nobody else has the logistics to operate a few ships doing real work in combat conditions far outside their territorial waters but us. They also don't have the budget or the political will.

I don't think anyone really expected Iran to start spamming weapons at everyone in reach to try to save themselves, though it should have been planned for. The reality is the USA is going to have to patrol the hell out of that stretch until there is a cessation of hostilities and shoot anything that pops up that we don't like, and help other ships get through.

Hitting refineries/oil infrastructure is exactly what I thought they would do to create global chaos. I said this when it first started. I have no idea how this was not taken into account in their planning. I hope they are taking into account protecting our domestic oil/gas capabilities. I suspect they will try to hit it at some point.

Do you have a blog we can follow? Seems like you know way, way more than any expert. Reaching CNN Mensa level even.

[You can make your point without being disrespectful to others -- Staff]
aggiehawg
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Quote:

Hitting refineries/oil infrastructure is exactly what I thought they would do to create global chaos. I said this when it first started. I have no idea how this was not taken into account in their planning. I hope they are taking into account protecting our domestic oil/gas capabilities. I suspect they will try to hit it at some point.

Does not benefit the regime at all. So of course that is what stupid does.
Yukon Cornelius
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We should stop spending money on NATO. Europe are not our Allies.
docb
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flown-the-coop said:

docb said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Nobody else has the logistics to operate a few ships doing real work in combat conditions far outside their territorial waters but us. They also don't have the budget or the political will.

I don't think anyone really expected Iran to start spamming weapons at everyone in reach to try to save themselves, though it should have been planned for. The reality is the USA is going to have to patrol the hell out of that stretch until there is a cessation of hostilities and shoot anything that pops up that we don't like, and help other ships get through.

Hitting refineries/oil infrastructure is exactly what I thought they would do to create global chaos. I said this when it first started. I have no idea how this was not taken into account in their planning. I hope they are taking into account protecting our domestic oil/gas capabilities. I suspect they will try to hit it at some point.

Do you have a blog we can follow? Seems like you know way, way more than any expert. Reaching CNN Mensa level even.

Amazing I've never seen someone post so much but contribute so little. It must be a sad life.

[Ditto -- Staff]
hph6203
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ATX_AG_08
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AlaskanAg99 said:

The Europeans have put themselves into an incredibly bad spot. Through all their idiotic "Green" energy plans, shutting down their nuke programs, tying themselves to their sworn enemy Russia and chronically underfunding their military.

Europe (mostly) are not our allies and they cannot be trusted.


Western Europe is toast. Canada is toast.

It's us, Japan, and Israel. That's it.
nortex97
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100 percent.
We should no longer have any forces at all in Germany in particular after this example in their 'alliance' with us.
nortex97
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Make no mistake, the Canadian military is a disaster though, at home and abroad, but it's pretty vile to hide the fact that Iran attacked Canadian forces on March 1 from the public.

Further deterioration in our relationship with Governor Carney is a direct outcome of this conflict, politically.
nortex97
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WTAF, both Al Jazeera and The Atlantic (!!) note progress/good updates for the US-Israel-ME3 coalition?

Trump apparently 'truthed' the former:
Quote:

And the strain on Iran's security forces is taking a toll:
Quote:

The body lies mutilated in the street. The wounds are savage but calculated. This is more than sadism. It is a message.

At first glance, it's just one more Iranian who has lost their life amid the state's promiscuous violence. A tragedy as death always is but in the Islamic Republic, sadly a part of daily life.
But this is different: it's not an Iranian protester lying in the dirt for all to see but an officer of the regime's first and last line of defence: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 I have been in contact with a source who is across western intelligence inside the country.

And what they have revealed to me is something extraordinary: that amid the chaos and fury of the war in Iran, the state's most brutal security forces are not only penetrated by enemy services and in disarray they are turning on each other. 'Over the past four days, reports have painted a picture of an Iranian security apparatus under severe and accelerating internal strain,' says my source.
'More than 60 incidents have been documented across virtually every branch of the regime's military and security apparatus, spanning multiple regions simultaneously.

Again, the fact that we are winning the war tactically and that our strategy is proceeding as planned hardly guarantees success. But assertions that this is a fiasco are absurd.

It tells you something that Al Jazeera, a news outlet famously hostile to the United States, is publishing articles that are more favorable to the US and Israel than the American media.

And that something is simple: the US media is, indeed, the enemy of the people.

A real 'win' for the Iranian people would force a massive political reckoning among our enemies both domestically and internationally, imho. This may not be the most probable outcome, but it isn't outside of the realm of possibility at this point.
LMCane
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I guess for all the "experts" every war should be finished in under 16 days.

just like

World War One, World War Two, the Cold War, Vietnam, Gulf War One, Afghanistan, Ukraine, the Civil War, the Seven Years War.

but seeing as how Iran has had their ENTIRE navy demolished in under two weeks, and their entire Air Force annihilated in two weeks, and have now lost their top Chiefs of Staff of the Army and terrorist corps. And have their ballistic missile firings down by 90%. and their drone attacks down by 75%.

Oh the huge manatee!!

nortex97
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AG
Kind of amazing how cowardly the Australians are these days.

Yes, Mr. Abbott is correct.
Quote:

Under AUKUS, Australian sailors are embedded on US submarines to learn how to crew nuclear-powered subs. So when the USS Charlotte torpedoed an Iranian frigate, you'd expect our personnel to be at their stations. Instead, our government ordered them to their bunks. Our people were little more than submarine tourists.

This government suffers from a kind of practical pacifism, where the only circumstances our armed forces might conceivably be permitted to fire a shot in anger is at an enemy actually bombing Darwin.

At some point, the US president who's supposed to give Australia up to five Virginia class nuclear powered submarines is going to ask why he should divert firepower to a country that won't use it. Could a country that benches personnel already embarked on a US sub ever be trusted to be at America's side when it really counts?

sanangelo
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Every day I look at Drudge to determine how terrible the western press is. Most of these stories link to UK news websites.

San Angelo LIVE!
https://sanangelolive.com/
hph6203
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AG


He's dead.
Who?mikejones!
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Drudge? Really?
 
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