Political fallout and arguments regarding the US-Israeli action against Iran 022824

57,408 Views | 737 Replies | Last: 19 min ago by Prosperdick
Hullabaloonatic
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lol omg you thought I meant I literally never typed the word "poll"? You misunderstood. The conversation, about people supporting the bombing of Iran as per 'polls', was something I didn't bring up. That's what I meant. I never asserted the popularity of Trump's decision via 'polls' and I asked that user 'where did they see that sentiment polled'? That's what I meant. And then you jumped in to criticize me for wading into waters I never steered anyone into.
Ag87H2O
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Judge a man by his actions, not his words......



So what? The circumstances on the ground now are a lot different than they were in 2024. Trump saw an opportunity to change the equation in the Middle East and make this country safer and he took it. That's what good leaders do. Assess, adapt, plan, implement, win - something the mouth breathers on the left will never understand.
LMCane
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I am America First

Hubert J. Farnsworth
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Stupid take from a redditor.

Yukon Cornelius
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Drill baby drill!
Dad-O-Lot
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Judge a man by his actions, not his words......




So, he was confident in his ability to negotiate.

He underestimated the Islamic Iranian's obstinance.

He had to pivot.

I'd rather he adjust his position when things change rather than sticking with a position that was no longer viable out of fear of being called a "hypocrite".

I see him adjusting based on reality and not popularity.
People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
Ag with kids
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Hullabaloonatic said:

lol omg you thought I meant I literally never typed the word "poll"? You misunderstood. The conversation, about people supporting the bombing of Iran as per 'polls', was something I didn't bring up. That's what I meant. I never asserted the popularity of Trump's decision via 'polls' and I asked that user 'where did they see that sentiment polled'? That's what I meant. And then you jumped in to criticize me for wading into waters I never steered anyone into.

1) You quoted a poll asserting that the popularity of the bombing was low. Why did you do that if you weren't trying to "asserted the popularity of Trump's decision via 'polls'"?
2) I said no polls were statistically accurate
3) You said you never brought up polls (see 1)
4) Congrats on moving the goalposts to another state.
5) Don't quote polls and then try to say that a) you didn't bring up polls and b) use that poll to steer people's opinions towards the direction of the poll.
TAMUallen
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Ag with kids
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Dad-O-Lot said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Judge a man by his actions, not his words......




So, he was confident in his ability to negotiate.

He underestimated the Islamic Iranian's obstinance.

He had to pivot.

I'd rather he adjust his position when things change rather than sticking with a position that was no longer viable out of fear of being called a "hypocrite".

I see him adjusting based on reality and not popularity.

Sometimes negotiation includes needing to show the other party that you're willing to do the thing you promised if they didn't give you what you want.

Looks like Iran got to that part of the negotiation with Trump...
RikkiTikkaTagem
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Kansas Kid said:



Oxford Definition
"A state of armed conflict between different nations or states or different groups within a nation or state."

By the definition of the word, I would love to hear how this isn't armed conflict between multiple nations.



Because trans people will end up killing more Christian Americans than the Iranians will Americans this year.

Because islamists in our own country will kill more Christian Americans than the Iranians will ameicans this year.

Let's just be consistent in our definition of war and deal with all comers accordingly.
Maroon Dawn
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Lefty has now completely lost interest in ICE and is now protesting to demand Iranian women put that burqa and hijab back on because women can't be liberated by Bad Orange Men.

We can safely accelerate mass deportation now because the flag and hashtags in the bio has changed to The New Current Thing
Dirty_Mike&the_boys
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Old May Banker said:

I refuse to allow liberal democrat controlled media to define what "war" is. They damn sure weren't interested in doing the same when B Hussein Obama was in office.

They can't define what a woman is, war is way more complicated than that.
"We're going to turn this red Prius into a soup kitchen!"
Wabs
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Maroon Dawn said:

Lefty has now completely lost interest in ICE and is now protesting to demand Iranian women put that burqa and hijab back on because women can't be liberated by Bad Orange Men.

We can safely accelerate mass deportation now because the flag and hashtags in the bio has changed to The New Current Thing

One thing the left can't stand more than anything - free people. They love them some oppression.
TAMUallen
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Wabs said:

Maroon Dawn said:

Lefty has now completely lost interest in ICE and is now protesting to demand Iranian women put that burqa and hijab back on because women can't be liberated by Bad Orange Men.

We can safely accelerate mass deportation now because the flag and hashtags in the bio has changed to The New Current Thing

One thing the left can't stand more than anything - free people. They love them some oppression.


No kings! *Except for the ones that the United States removes
Wabs
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Dirty_Mike&the_boys said:

Old May Banker said:

I refuse to allow liberal democrat controlled media to define what "war" is. They damn sure weren't interested in doing the same when B Hussein Obama was in office.

They can't define what a woman is, war is way more complicated than that.

Remember when Obama drug us into wars with Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria?

He dropped bombs there. Were those considered wars?
Maroon Dawn
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Wabs said:

Dirty_Mike&the_boys said:

Old May Banker said:

I refuse to allow liberal democrat controlled media to define what "war" is. They damn sure weren't interested in doing the same when B Hussein Obama was in office.

They can't define what a woman is, war is way more complicated than that.

Remember when Obama drug us into wars with Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria?

He dropped bombs there. Were those considered wars?


Apparently Obama didn't require an official declaration of war from Congress but Trump does ….because reasons
nortex97
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Starmer thought he was a big man when he blocked using Diego Garcia for a few days.

Spoiler alert, ****ing wrong as usual.
Quote:

This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here's why…

Most people don't realize London isn't just a financial center it's THE center of global insurance.

Lloyd's underwrites ~40% of the world's marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.

This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.

Control insurance, control trade.
And London doesn't just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd's and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.

You can't participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.

Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.

Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can't even price it.

The question everyone should be asking: why?

Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?

To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.

The answer: better intelligence.

It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world's maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd's itself.

I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd's.

Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.

Here's the problem: the majority of MI6's intel doesn't come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion's share of intel.

So if Lloyd's pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6's best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?

All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.
...

This means if London is suddenly flying blind it's not just Lloyd's policyholders at risk. It's the entire global reinsurance chain.

The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn't the crisis. It's the canary.

If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.

Watch Lloyd's. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That's where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.

More at the thread.
End Nato. These are not our 'allies.'
BMX Bandit
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No mention of a preemptive hit by Iran in this clip. Anyone see the full video?

Need more of this. Get out there and tell the people what's going on. No more "sources say"
TAMUallen
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AG
Primary pressure must be hitting Cornyn

BMX Bandit
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Look for the usual suspects to RRRRREEEEE that this shows Israel forced Trump into something he didn't want to do




aggiehawg
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Dumb question here: Is maritime insurance issued only per voyage? Or for a set period of time such as six months to a year? Can the insurers just cancel anytime they want?
YouBet
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Whatever it takes!
Prosperdick
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Quote:

Reuters ipsos poll from today shows only 1 in 4 Americans support the Iranian strike. Even amongst identified Republicans it's mixed.

Since I have the lunatic on block I quoted your post and below is what I posted about the Ipsos polling last year, it's trash. I've been a member for going on 4 years now and I've seen the shenanigans they pull:
Quote:

I will always be distrustful of polls since I've experienced it first-hand. I've been with Ipsos for over three years now and they polled the **** outta me during the 2022 mid-terms and even leading up to the '24 election when Biden was still running. I even listed myself as a moderate Republican instead of heavy because I think of myself as more of a Libertarian but have no choice but vote R.

Anyway, Kamala gets installed and my surveys go to ZERO. I don't get any except an e-mail advising users on how to temporarily turn off surveys because people were getting flooded with them for the election. They even apologized in the e-mail and I'm like I haven't got a single one you jack wads.

To be fair, they FINALLY sent me one like 2 days before election day when polling had pretty much stopped.

They were completely rigging the system for Kamala and not sending surveys out to anyone who was even a "light" Republican to ensure she had favorable numbers.

Anyway, don't ever trust them, they're all bull**** and completely in the tank for the Dems.

TLDR - they over sample Dems big-time to get the results they want.

Silvertaps
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nortex97 said:

Starmer thought he was a big man when he blocked using Diego Garcia for a few days.

Spoiler alert, ****ing wrong as usual.
Quote:

This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here's why…

Most people don't realize London isn't just a financial center it's THE center of global insurance.

Lloyd's underwrites ~40% of the world's marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.

This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.

Control insurance, control trade.
And London doesn't just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd's and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.

You can't participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.

Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.

Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can't even price it.

The question everyone should be asking: why?

Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?

To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.

The answer: better intelligence.

It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world's maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd's itself.

I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd's.

Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.

Here's the problem: the majority of MI6's intel doesn't come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.

And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion's share of intel.

So if Lloyd's pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6's best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?

All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.
...

This means if London is suddenly flying blind it's not just Lloyd's policyholders at risk. It's the entire global reinsurance chain.

The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn't the crisis. It's the canary.

If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.

Watch Lloyd's. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That's where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.

More at the thread.
End Nato. These are not our 'allies.'


I laughed when I read the tweet. I was a Crisis Management Underwriter the last 9 years until recently, now large property underwriter (specifically wrote Terrorism, Terrorism Liability, Active Assailant, and Chemical/Biological/Radiological/Nuclear policies). I worked quite a bit with London and still communicate with LLoyd's, and I can assure you there isn't a mass cancellation going on, only temporary suspension of writing new business. Even on the property side, I have outstanding local polices in the Middle East that we are not considereing delaying nor cancelling.

But I guess if the X, Instagram, or the internet says it's true...
Rapier108
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BMX Bandit said:

Look for the usual suspects to RRRRREEEEE that this shows Israel forced Trump into something he didn't want to do





We need to ship Kelly, Tucker, Fuentes, Owens, and the rest of their cabal of antisemites over to Iran so they can be among like minded individuals.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
nortex97
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Most maritime insurance policies are subject to cancellation at any time, in general with 72 hours notice.

Note, I'm not an expert on this at all, just my understanding.
4stringAg
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BenFiasco14 said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Judge a man by his actions, not his words......





Remains to be seen if there will be a prolonged "war", but technicalities aside, yeah, he looks like a hypocrite.

Now what? I don't think I was played. I support the action so far, but it remains to be seen long term. But sure, enjoy the political win I guess? I'm more interested in reality, not scoring gotcha points.

This is kind of where I'm at as well. A lot of **** can happen between campaign promises and reality once the campaign is won. There are things that Trump does that I'm not overly thrilled with but this is not a dealbreaker to me nor do I feel like I'm being played. America First to me doesn't mean full on isolationism and cutting Israel off at the knees. I guess to some on the right it does.

Would I have voted Democrat if I knew Trump was going to bomb the hell out of Iran? No ****ing way.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

I laughed when I read the tweet. I was a Crisis Management Underwriter the last 9 years until recently, now large property underwriter (specifically wrote Terrorism, Terrorism Liability, Active Assailant, and Chemical/Biological/Radiological/Nuclear policies). I worked quite a bit with London and still communicate with LLoyd's, and I can assure you there isn't a mass cancellation going on, only temporary suspension of writing new business. Even on the property side, I have outstanding local polices in the Middle East that we are not considereing delaying nor cancelling.

But I guess if the X, Instagram, or the internet says it's true...

Thank you for that clarification with your knowledge and past experiences.
Harry Stone
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If Biden or Obama did this libs would be singing their praises, not protesting. I dont care what Trump said about wars, this is good for the world, along with venezuela. Suck it libs, your leaders were too afraid or compromised to do this.
Dirty_Mike&the_boys
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Wabs said:

Dirty_Mike&the_boys said:

Old May Banker said:

I refuse to allow liberal democrat controlled media to define what "war" is. They damn sure weren't interested in doing the same when B Hussein Obama was in office.

They can't define what a woman is, war is way more complicated than that.

Remember when Obama drug us into wars with Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria?

He dropped bombs there. Were those considered wars?

Now Barry was guilty of a lot of things, but when exactly were we drug into a war with Pakistan? Now the US conducted a covert drone campaign against militants in northwest Pakistan from 2004 to 2018, but that wasn't a war with Pakistan, there was Taliban hiding out in the northern territory.

Barry authorized the use of armed drones in Libya starting in April 2011, as part of the NATO-led intervention (Operation Odyssey Dawn) to protect civilians during the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. But in actuality they were covering up the fact they had been illegally arming Lybia and they were getting caught. Benghazi was a coverup of a weapons cache that vanished from the docks in Yemen that were supposed to end up in Libya, but when an unexploded stinger lodged itself in the side pod of a US Chinook in Afghanistan in 2011, the jig was up, so Barry tried to make Marc Turi the fall guy for a covert weapons program to arm the Libyan opposition that spun out of control. Marc Turi said he's tell all, and a Houston Federal Judge ordered Eric Holder to turn over the records the government dismissed charges against Turi to avoid release of details about the operation.

Later, the administration used drone strikes to target ISIS militants in Libya, particularly in 2016. Wouldn't call either of those a war, CIA led drone strikes is hardly a war.

Somalia I'm not sure what you're talking about, Battle of Mogadishu was in 1993, that's slick Willy, and that was a UN led blue hat thing.

Syria was a UN insurgency, Barry dropped bombs on Syria and the US assisted in the regime change involving Assad but left a vacuum behind that was filled by ISIS, and al-Qaeda elements such as Hurras al-Din. Not sure you'd call that a war either. Barry called it a Peace Keeping mission which was laughable, Assad kept the bad guys in check, Barry was allowing the Jihadist movement spread throughout the ME.

The Yemen civil war really more involve the Saudi's not so much us. We supplied Arms to the Saudis but that's about it.


SO maybe you can clarify your quest a little better because not sure where you're coming from or what you're getting at.


Korea Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan, all are "wars' just not formally declared by congress, we haven't done that since June 5th 1942

HTH
"We're going to turn this red Prius into a soup kitchen!"
Kaiser von Wilhelm
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Dirty_Mike&the_boys said:

Wabs said:

Dirty_Mike&the_boys said:

Old May Banker said:

I refuse to allow liberal democrat controlled media to define what "war" is. They damn sure weren't interested in doing the same when B Hussein Obama was in office.

They can't define what a woman is, war is way more complicated than that.

Remember when Obama drug us into wars with Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, and Syria?

He dropped bombs there. Were those considered wars?

Now Barry was guilty of a lot of things, but when exactly were we drug into a war with Pakistan? Now the US conducted a covert drone campaign against militants in northwest Pakistan from 2004 to 2018, but that wasn't a war with Pakistan, there was Taliban hiding out in the northern territory.

Barry authorized the use of armed drones in Libya starting in April 2011, as part of the NATO-led intervention (Operation Odyssey Dawn) to protect civilians during the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi. But in actuality they were covering up the fact they had been illegally arming Lybia and they were getting caught. Benghazi was a coverup of a weapons cache that vanished from the docks in Yemen that were supposed to end up in Libya, but when an unexploded stinger lodged itself in the side pod of a US Chinook in Afghanistan in 2011, the jig was up, so Barry tried to make Marc Turi the fall guy for a covert weapons program to arm the Libyan opposition that spun out of control. Marc Turi said he's tell all, and a Houston Federal Judge ordered Eric Holder to turn over the records the government dismissed charges against Turi to avoid release of details about the operation.

Later, the administration used drone strikes to target ISIS militants in Libya, particularly in 2016. Wouldn't call either of those a war, CIA led drone strikes is hardly a war.

Somalia I'm not sure what you're talking about, Battle of Mogadishu was in 1993, that's slick Willy, and that was a UN led blue hat thing.

Syria was a UN insurgency, Barry dropped bombs on Syria and the US assisted in the regime change involving Assad but left a vacuum behind that was filled by ISIS, and al-Qaeda elements such as Hurras al-Din. Not sure you'd call that a war either. Barry called it a Peace Keeping mission which was laughable, Assad kept the bad guys in check, Barry was allowing the Jihadist movement spread throughout the ME.

The Yemen civil war really more involve the Saudi's not so much us. We supplied Arms to the Saudis but that's about it.


SO maybe you can clarify your quest a little better because not sure where you're coming from or what you're getting at.


Korea Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan, all are "wars' just not formally declared by congress, we haven't done that since June 5th 1942

HTH



Finish reading the post before responding in a long post lecturing what was clearly sarcasm. Probably would've gotten that if you read the last line. But you sure showed him.

HTH
TRM
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https://www.reinsurancene.ws/marine-hull-insurance-rates-in-the-gulf-could-rise-50-due-to-iran-conflict-marsh/

Quote:

According to Dylan Mortimer, Marine Hull UK War Leader, Marsh, there could be near-term rate increases for the Marine Hull line of business in the Gulf of 25-50%, while other reports reveal that some underwriters have reacted swiftly and cancelled certain annual hull war policies under standard 7-day war clauses.

Quote:

It's been revealed that shipping company Maersk paused sailings through Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, while marine insurer Skuld has cancelled war risk cover. Skuld emphasises the evident tightening of reinsurers' appetite for warrisk exposure, which the Association says will result in reinsurers withdrawing capacity at short notice.

At the same time, Indian public sector reinsurer, General Insurance Corporation of India (GIC Re), will withdraw marine hull war risk cover in several high-risk global regions, according to CNBC TV 18, citing an official notice issued by the company.

According to Stephen Rudman, Head of Marine, Asia, Aon, underwriters are withdrawing or revising existing quoted additional premiums (APs) for transits through listed high-risk areas, with the reinstatement of cover being offered at materially increased rates.

Additionally, he explained that there is a heightened underwriting scrutiny for voyages into or near sensitive zones, including a potential requirement for prior approval.

Swollen Thumb
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Lloyd's is certainly the global center for marine and energy insurance (among other classes), but the assertion that war risk policy don't normally get cancelled is incorrect and the speculated MI6 connection is ridiculous.

Typically these policies include very short cancellation notice period (usually ~7 days) that is triggered in the event of conflict in a particular region involving particular sovereign states. Once triggered, notice is given that the policy will be cancelled at the end of the notice period. That mechanism is in place so that the triggering events are covered for the very short-term (7 days), while allowing underwriters to cancel and (if they choose to) subsequently reinstate coverage on a re-rated basis (much higher premium) given the change in risk. The fun part is that the new policy will also have the same a 7 day cancellation notice provision that is immediately triggered, allowing underwriters to further review, re-rate and reinstate coverage (or not) after another 7 days. So you essentially get in a 7 day loop of renewing coverage. Of course, underwriters do not have to renew if the exposure is too great...such as a ship moving through Hormuz as Iran is threatening destruction of same.
Hubert J. Farnsworth
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Meanwhile, in France.



What's up with the timing of this announcement? Is Macron just trying to sound tough with everything going on right now?
Silvertaps
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Swollen Thumb said:

Lloyd's is certainly the global center for marine and energy insurance (among other classes), but the assertion that war risk policy don't normally get cancelled is incorrect and the speculated MI6 connection is ridiculous.

Typically these policies include very short cancellation notice period (usually ~7 days) that is triggered in the event of conflict in a particular region involving particular sovereign states. Once triggered, notice is given that the policy will be cancelled at the end of the notice period. That mechanism is in place so that the triggering events are covered for the very short-term (7 days), while allowing underwriters to cancel and (if they choose to) subsequently reinstate coverage on a re-rated basis (much higher premium) given the change in risk. The fun part is that the new policy will also have the same a 7 day cancellation notice provision that is immediately triggered, allowing underwriters to further review, re-rate and reinstate coverage (or not) after another 7 days. So you essentially get in a 7 day loop of renewing coverage. Of course, underwriters do not have to renew if the exposure is too great...such as a ship moving through Hormuz as Iran is threatening destruction of same.

are you referring to an open cargo type of policy?
 
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