Hormuz traffic over 10 million barrels a day and daytime centcom escorts now make that as laughable as ever.

The diesel export ban seems extremely short-sighted by Trump. It sounds like he's considering this because it will somehow help with a few key senate races for R's. I guess they think not exporting it will somehow drop prices here.

I realize the O&G industry stands to lose money and will be self-serving in their angst over this, but this has much larger implications if we do this

Quote:

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The industry is making the case that export controls won't just hurt its profits. Banning U.S. diesel shipments even for a temporary period, executives and lobbyists told U.S. officials, would spur international prices for the fuel to skyrocket. That would lift prices for a broad basket of goods that the U.S. imports from other countries. Some worried other countries might take retaliatory measures curbing supplies to the U.S. as they absorb higher transportation costs.

Higher diesel costs would also curtail supplies of fertilizer and other chemicals that farmers use to grow crops, they argued.

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Quote:

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An export ban on diesel would leave U.S. refineries with a large surplus of the fuel, which would force them to cut production by almost two million barrels a day, or 12% of refinery runs, according to S&P Global. The firm estimates gasoline production could decline as much as 750,000 barrels a day. Some analysts think that figure would translate into an increase of 25 cents a gallon in gasoline prices.

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Also, the bigger issue here with diesel prices has less to do with Iran and much more to do with Ukraine attacking Russia. But few want to admit that uncomfortable reality.

YouBet said:

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The diesel export ban seems extremely short-sighted by Trump. It sounds like he's considering this because it will somehow help with a few key senate races for R's. I guess they think not exporting it will somehow drop prices here.

I realize the O&G industry stands to lose money and will be self-serving in their angst over this, but this has much larger implications if we do this

Quote:

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The industry is making the case that export controls won't just hurt its profits. Banning U.S. diesel shipments even for a temporary period, executives and lobbyists told U.S. officials, would spur international prices for the fuel to skyrocket. That would lift prices for a broad basket of goods that the U.S. imports from other countries. Some worried other countries might take retaliatory measures curbing supplies to the U.S. as they absorb higher transportation costs.

Higher diesel costs would also curtail supplies of fertilizer and other chemicals that farmers use to grow crops, they argued.

---

Quote:

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An export ban on diesel would leave U.S. refineries with a large surplus of the fuel, which would force them to cut production by almost two million barrels a day, or 12% of refinery runs, according to S&P Global. The firm estimates gasoline production could decline as much as 750,000 barrels a day. Some analysts think that figure would translate into an increase of 25 cents a gallon in gasoline prices.

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Also, the bigger issue here with diesel prices has less to do with Iran and much more to do with Ukraine attacking Russia. But few want to admit that uncomfortable reality.

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Well you have Trump telling Ukraine and Russia how they should conduct their war (the one he said he'd end on day one of his presidency) and meanwhile he told everyone else to screw off in regard to his own war that is not ending anytime soon.

nortex97 said:

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Hormuz traffic over 10 million barrels a day and daytime centcom escorts now make that as laughable as ever.

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Even with all the mitigation, there is still a notable decrease going through the SOH daily as compared to pre-war in February. A shortfall loss about equivalent to 5% in global daily demand, per some estimates I've seen. So it is still a serious problem and the overall global supply situation is gradually getting a bit worse and worse as this lingers on.

Is a game of chicken between the U.S. and Iran right now.

Iran might choose to hit some more Gulf state pipelines or pumping stations for a deliberately timed 'October Surprise'. I'll be mildly surprised if they don't.

Quote:

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Is a game of chicken between the U.S. and Iran right now.

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Yep... Looks like October is going to be a banger.

Trump is learning a very tough lesson, His enemy gets a say in all of this too......

🇮🇷 **Iran gives the U.S. five days to accept its conditions**

Iran's Secretary of the **Supreme National Security Council** has reportedly given Washington **five days** to accept Tehran's conditions.

The ultimatum comes amid escalating tensions between Iran and the United… pic.twitter.com/yZ3b4ytSDH

— 𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤 (@SprinterPress) September 23, 2026

YouBet said:

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The diesel export ban seems extremely short-sighted by Trump. It sounds like he's considering this because it will somehow help with a few key senate races for R's. I guess they think not exporting it will somehow drop prices here.

I realize the O&G industry stands to lose money and will be self-serving in their angst over this, but this has much larger implications if we do this

Quote:

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The industry is making the case that export controls won't just hurt its profits. Banning U.S. diesel shipments even for a temporary period, executives and lobbyists told U.S. officials, would spur international prices for the fuel to skyrocket. That would lift prices for a broad basket of goods that the U.S. imports from other countries. Some worried other countries might take retaliatory measures curbing supplies to the U.S. as they absorb higher transportation costs.

Higher diesel costs would also curtail supplies of fertilizer and other chemicals that farmers use to grow crops, they argued.

---

Quote:

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An export ban on diesel would leave U.S. refineries with a large surplus of the fuel, which would force them to cut production by almost two million barrels a day, or 12% of refinery runs, according to S&P Global. The firm estimates gasoline production could decline as much as 750,000 barrels a day. Some analysts think that figure would translate into an increase of 25 cents a gallon in gasoline prices.

---

Also, the bigger issue here with diesel prices has less to do with Iran and much more to do with Ukraine attacking Russia. But few want to admit that uncomfortable reality.

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No Ukraine war has been going on for years the problem now is Iran war.

Administration started blaming Ukraine war weeks ago and then those pesky Ukrainians/Deep state strike Russian gas facilities just to drive home the point.

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump and First Lady Melania PERSONALLY welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping and the first lady of China on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews

And 47 personally greeted troops as they walked from the plane.

The first time in SIXTY YEARS a President has… pic.twitter.com/ZeLA7UeMBr

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 23, 2026

BREAKING: China directly rejects the US order shutting down Iranian airlines worldwide, announcing they will continue to allow Iranian airlines to operate on their territory, as China "firmly opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and lack UN…

— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 23, 2026

Quote:

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China directly rejects the US order shutting down Iranian airlines worldwide, announcing they will continue to allow Iranian airlines to operate on their territory, as China "firmly opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law and lack UN Security Council mandate," when asked whether it will keep receiving flights from Tehran, per foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.

Iranian flights are still landing in China, with a Mahan Air aircraft arriving in Guangzhou hours into the order, and multiple Mahan aircraft already airborne to China.

Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Oman, Qatar and Turkey have all barred Iranian airlines today. China has not.

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I'd give my left nut to be a fly on the wall tomorrow during their meetings......

Xi doesn't seem impressed.

Trump winces during loud military flyover as Xi shows no reaction pic.twitter.com/NbO2IG8BEC

— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) September 23, 2026

Coachlandryhat said:

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YouBet said:

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The diesel export ban seems extremely short-sighted by Trump. It sounds like he's considering this because it will somehow help with a few key senate races for R's. I guess they think not exporting it will somehow drop prices here.

I realize the O&G industry stands to lose money and will be self-serving in their angst over this, but this has much larger implications if we do this

Quote:

---

The industry is making the case that export controls won't just hurt its profits. Banning U.S. diesel shipments even for a temporary period, executives and lobbyists told U.S. officials, would spur international prices for the fuel to skyrocket. That would lift prices for a broad basket of goods that the U.S. imports from other countries. Some worried other countries might take retaliatory measures curbing supplies to the U.S. as they absorb higher transportation costs.

Higher diesel costs would also curtail supplies of fertilizer and other chemicals that farmers use to grow crops, they argued.

---

Quote:

---

An export ban on diesel would leave U.S. refineries with a large surplus of the fuel, which would force them to cut production by almost two million barrels a day, or 12% of refinery runs, according to S&P Global. The firm estimates gasoline production could decline as much as 750,000 barrels a day. Some analysts think that figure would translate into an increase of 25 cents a gallon in gasoline prices.

---

Also, the bigger issue here with diesel prices has less to do with Iran and much more to do with Ukraine attacking Russia. But few want to admit that uncomfortable reality.

---

No Ukraine war has been going on for years the problem now is Iran war.

Administration started blaming Ukraine war weeks ago and then those pesky Ukrainians/Deep state strike Russian gas facilities just to drive home the point.

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Impacts to Russian diesel production are much more recent than years ago. Russia put an export ban in place starting in July because ongoing Ukrainian strikes were impacting production and it just got worse this week with more Ukrainian strikes. You now have the #2 diesel producer on the planet offline. Thus, high prices.

Dan Scott said:

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Xi doesn't seem impressed.

Trump winces during loud military flyover as Xi shows no reaction pic.twitter.com/NbO2IG8BEC

— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) September 23, 2026

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Xi knows he has all the leverage. It's not hard to recognize when someone rrrrrrreeeeaaallly wants to be your friend.

a good overview of where things currently stand

Recap of the EIA’s oil and fuel inventory report:

US crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels last week, largely reflecting a 1.6 mb/d drop in exports and a 0.5 mb/d decline in refinery inputs. SPR outflows slowed sharply to just 0.4 million barrels, while stocks at Cushing… pic.twitter.com/wpOMSPwX1A

— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) September 24, 2026