Political fallout and arguments regarding the US-Israeli action against Iran 022824

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4:45p, 3/18/26
Counting down to this version of Trump....before the end of May.

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snowminer
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In reply to Slicer97 • 4:46p, 3/18/26
AG
I don't really disagree with your assessment of our objectives. I also do not believe that there is any intention or desire for a ground invasion. I also don't believe that we should cower and avoid engaging with Iran. As I said before, we cannot allow Iran to attain nuclear weapons, lest they permanently entrench the regime.

I think the only disagreement I have with you is in the likelihood of a successful popular uprising in Iran. I am skeptical that Reza Pahlavi, who to my knowledge is the only serious non-regime candidate, can establish rule of the country without a prolonged civil war, which would also be a geopolitical disaster.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 4:59p, 3/18/26
AG
Looks to me like he's sending Iran a message. My guess is that they're too stupid and too dug in to listen. I think all remaining IRGC officials, Basij, and Iranian coastal weapons sites are about to find out the hard way that Trump isn't backing off. IDF/Mossad are going to get to prove once again how efficient and thorough their spy network really is.

It's worth it IMO to get rid of the Islamic regime, but it's going to be a bumpy ride over the next few weeks.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 5:13p, 3/18/26
It's the next rung on the escalation ladder that is the problem. If this keeps going the desalination plants on both sides of the Gulf and in Israel are next on the menu.


Surviving in the desert without water is difficult to say the least.....

Quote:
The Middle East uses a massive amount of desalinated water, accounting for
over 40% of the world's total capacity.

Major Gulf nations rely on it for over 90% of their drinking water, with over 5,000 plants operating in the region. Saudi Arabia is the largest producer, with capacities of approximately 29 million

Regional Key Data:
  • Saudi Arabia: The world's largest producer; >70% of water needs are met by desalination.
  • Kuwait & Bahrain: Almost 100% dependent on desalinated water for daily needs.
  • Oman: Approximately 86% of its water supply comes from desalination.
  • UAE: Roughly 42% of its drinking water is desalinated.
  • Israel: Produces about 1.91 million with ~80% of drinkable water coming from plants
Iran uses a relatively small amount of desalinated water, with estimates suggesting it accounts for less than 3% of its total water supply,



IMO we get the off ramp gesture on Friday to calm markets over the weekend.
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JFABNRGR
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5:15p, 3/18/26
AG
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 5:18p, 3/18/26


Theres no off ramp that doesnt end with the total capitulation of the Iranian regime.
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 5:24p, 3/18/26
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.
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ATX_AG_08
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 5:26p, 3/18/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Phatbob said:
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:


Bibi may or not be dead. There are arguments for both.


Ahh, Ok, we're done here.



Lets you and I bet on it. I'll give you 10:1 odds. We can escrow the money with a neutral TA member.

I'll make the same bet with the other 5 people who liked your post.

Anyone?
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Dungeon Crawler Carl
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:01p, 3/18/26
Sure I'll bite.

My $500 of BTC to your $5000 of BTC?

No need to escrow. We can go with the Aggie Code of Honor.

What are the parameters?

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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:08p, 3/18/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.



No, it's going to be an absolute disaster for the Islamic regime.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:12p, 3/18/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.


Maybe for Iranians. Humanity itself- probably not
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Rapier108
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:12p, 3/18/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.

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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:13p, 3/18/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.



It's going to be a disaster all right. For the Islamist regime.
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The Ex Officio Director
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:14p, 3/18/26
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Then it's going to be an absolute disaster for humanity.

Like turkeys falling out of a helicopter humanity

Can't decide if I want to be cute & cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
Decisions decisions.
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ATX_AG_08
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 6:28p, 3/18/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Sure I'll bite.

My $500 of BTC to your $5000 of BTC?

No need to escrow. We can go with the Aggie Code of Honor.

What are the parameters?



That amount is fine, but in USD or silver. $500 to $5000, and I'd prefer to escrow. You're an account with no Ag Tag.

The parameters are I'm betting bibi is alive and well. You're wagering he's dead right?

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The Ex Officio Director
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 6:31p, 3/18/26
ATX_AG_08 said:
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:
Sure I'll bite.

My $500 of BTC to your $5000 of BTC?

No need to escrow. We can go with the Aggie Code of Honor.

What are the parameters?



That amount is fine, but in USD or silver. $500 to $5000, and I'd prefer to escrow. You're an account with no Ag Tag.

The parameters are I'm betting bibi is alive and well. You're wagering he's dead right?


Is this just a bet between you two, or can others on Texags get in on this bet.
Can't decide if I want to be cute & cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
Decisions decisions.
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OldArmy71
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6:31p, 3/18/26
AG
Lots of smart people on this thread who know a lot.

Someone answer me:

What is going to be the effect on the common American of Iran blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure of the ME?

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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 7:20p, 3/18/26
Depends on what state you live in

https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/
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Dan Scott
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8:02p, 3/18/26
AG
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Prosperdick
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8:09p, 3/18/26
AG
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Gordo14
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8:57p, 3/18/26
This is spiraling out of control fast. Starting to blow up oil and gas infrastructure. This could quickly become the largest global economic shock of our lifetime. People are going to have to be priced out of their life that depends on access to energy.

I guarantee you every country or military expert said this outcome was a risk of military action against Iran. And still, it's abundantly clear Trump did not plan for this or see this coming. He was high from Venezuela and the fantasy of being a wartime president. And as it stands, unless Trump makes concessions, we will eventually be forced into a land war in my opinion. Otherwise the attacks will continue and the situation will deteriorate further.

The most exposed countries in the world are South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and all of Western Europe (in that order). All our allies. And if we ban crude oil and product exports we'll only make this disaster worse - particularly for our "allies?". Truly incompetent and all for the dumbest reasons. The biggest geopolitical own goal in American history. To be fair this presidency has just been a complete collapse of Pax Americana in the most pathetic and useless ways possible. I mean reflect for a second that just 2 months ago we were telling the Europeans we were going to annex Greenland by force. Now we are upset they don't want to help us in this absolute cluster**** that we didn't include them in the first place. Elections have consequences and we are far from the bottom. Congrats everyone. What a waste.
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Gordo14
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 9:05p, 3/18/26
OldArmy71 said:
Lots of smart people on this thread who know a lot.

Someone answer me:

What is going to be the effect on the common American of Iran blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure of the ME?



Global commodity markets are all interconnected. If Japan can't buy oil from Saudi Arabia anymore they will buy from the US. If we ban exports from Japan it will only make a bigger disaster for arguably our closest ally, will create incredible economic inefficiencies in the market (which all have costs), and this is all before we discuss how interconnected our economy is with Japan and the consequences to American businesses if Japan's economy starts to go into economic shock. Now add the same story with South Korea, Taiwan, UK, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, Poland, Finland, Italy, Greece, etc. Sure, America is much better hedged as an economy to the initial shock. But the following economic consequences will be awful, and what about our political capital. We have long ago already become an unreliable partner to all of the countries we are the most economically interconnected with. Now we're just straight up ****ing them over.
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Phatbob
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In reply to Gordo14 • 9:23p, 3/18/26
AG
Geeze, I thought Trump was big on hyperbole. That man has nothing on you.Grats! That's an accomplishment
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WBBQ74
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9:41p, 3/18/26
AG
Stephen Miller is hideous to listen to on tv. His smarmy attitude on Ingraham tonight does not serve Trump well. This wuss should go to the bench and stay off the air until this incursion is over. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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Dirt 05
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In reply to Gordo14 • 9:48p, 3/18/26
AG
On an aggregate basis China gets hurt the most, they import the largest volume of petroleum in the world, and this will cut significantly into their trade balance. It may even force them to be buyers of US treasuries again.

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Slicer97
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In reply to Gordo14 • 9:59p, 3/18/26
AG
Gordo14 said:
OldArmy71 said:
Lots of smart people on this thread who know a lot.

Someone answer me:

What is going to be the effect on the common American of Iran blowing up the oil and gas infrastructure of the ME?



Global commodity markets are all interconnected. If Japan can't buy oil from Saudi Arabia anymore they will buy from the US. If we ban exports from Japan it will only make a bigger disaster for arguably our closest ally, will create incredible economic inefficiencies in the market (which all have costs), and this is all before we discuss how interconnected our economy is with Japan and the consequences to American businesses if Japan's economy starts to go into economic shock. Now add the same story with South Korea, Taiwan, UK, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, Poland, Finland, Italy, Greece, etc. Sure, America is much better hedged as an economy to the initial shock. But the following economic consequences will be awful, and what about our political capital. We have long ago already become an unreliable partner to all of the countries we are the most economically interconnected with. Now we're just straight up ****ing them over.


Damn, dude. Simmer down, have a drink, and maybe watch some stand-up or something.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Dungeon Crawler Carl • 10:02p, 3/18/26
AG
Dungeon Crawler Carl said:


There it is.......an off ramp for Trump to take.

He can come out tonight and declare this needs to deescalate before it gets out of hand, throw Israeli under the global bus, and get out of this with just a mild to rough recession heading into the mid-terms.

Does he have the balls to do it? Let's wait and see.






Dang, kudos. You kind of called it.


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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Gordo14 • 10:06p, 3/18/26
AG
Gordo14 said:
This is spiraling out of control fast. Starting to blow up oil and gas infrastructure. This could quickly become the largest global economic shock of our lifetime. People are going to have to be priced out of their life that depends on access to energy.

I guarantee you every country or military expert said this outcome was a risk of military action against Iran. And still, it's abundantly clear Trump did not plan for this or see this coming. He was high from Venezuela and the fantasy of being a wartime president. And as it stands, unless Trump makes concessions, we will eventually be forced into a land war in my opinion. Otherwise the attacks will continue and the situation will deteriorate further.

The most exposed countries in the world are South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and all of Western Europe (in that order). All our allies. And if we ban crude oil and product exports we'll only make this disaster worse - particularly for our "allies?". Truly incompetent and all for the dumbest reasons. The biggest geopolitical own goal in American history. To be fair this presidency has just been a complete collapse of Pax Americana in the most pathetic and useless ways possible. I mean reflect for a second that just 2 months ago we were telling the Europeans we were going to annex Greenland by force. Now we are upset they don't want to help us in this absolute cluster**** that we didn't include them in the first place. Elections have consequences and we are far from the bottom. Congrats everyone. What a waste.
Drama queen much? It's not over yet. Let it play out.
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The Unforgiven
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 10:08p, 3/18/26
AG
Is this the military version of Good Cop/Bad Cop?
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to The Unforgiven • 10:14p, 3/18/26
AG
Doubtful. Trump is pragmatic. He wants economic prosperity to be the carrot for change in Iran. Which requires energy export.
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Dan Scott
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10:22p, 3/18/26
AG
Israel attacks, Iran retaliates, US having to step in. Israel gets a slap on the wrist from Trump. Israelis knew Trump didn't want the energy infrastructure hit. He wasn't happy when they did it a couple weeks ago.

This incident plus Marcos earlier comments about the imminent threat being that we knew Israel would attack so we had to attack because we knew Iran would hit US assets in retaliation makes me believe we got pulled in.
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Yukon Cornelius
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10:26p, 3/18/26
AG
Has a US oil export ban been mentioned yet?
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AlaskanAg99
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10:32p, 3/18/26
AG
Or our visions aren't compatible.

US wants a west friendly (or at least biz friendly) so he wants their O&G in place to support that nation AND keep supply up to the rest of the world.

Isreal may want to simply demolished them to keep them down, also to **** China and to **** the EU (possibly due to lack of support).

The US could decouple our O&G from international markets and then only supply who we want.

The fog of war has definitely gone a bit sideways.

Conversely, this is hurting pretty much everyone else worse than us, which may push other nations into action. Money talks. Unfortunately, most our "allies" are completely worthless.

I still believe when Iran developed the bomb this was going to happen anyway.
aTm '99
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jja79
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In reply to WBBQ74 • 10:35p, 3/18/26
AG
Why would anyone watch Ingraham?
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mjschiller
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10:40p, 3/18/26
AG
WBBQ74, jja79 - marxist hate hearing the truth from Miller.
Marvin J. Schiller
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