BREAKING: Saudi Arabia orders Iranian Embassy staff to leave the country within 24 hours.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 21, 2026
flown-the-coop said:
Remember before Maduro was in NYC prison it was "Trump has no plan, regime change, endless wars" then proceeded to "OMG he supports Maduro's commie sidekick" then "when are the elections" and now just silence because Trump's plan thus far have worked out pretty damn well.
Leftist will literally off themselves at Trump's passing just so they can protest and sing dumb songs OUTSIDE the pearly gates. No way in hell they getting in, unless they repent.
Dan Scott said:
We'd likely be in the same position if Maduro was still there. We lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil temporarily so likely would have done the same for Venezuela.
Refined product prices are linked more to Brent. Cheaper WTI means US refiners print money, but doesn't necessarily mean lower gas/diesel prices in U.S. The U.S. though saves more because we don't have the transportation cost other places will have.
Dan Scott said:
We'd likely be in the same position if Maduro was still there. We lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil temporarily so likely would have done the same for Venezuela.
BusterAg said:Dan Scott said:
We'd likely be in the same position if Maduro was still there. We lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil temporarily so likely would have done the same for Venezuela.
Refined product prices are linked more to Brent. Cheaper WTI means US refiners print money, but doesn't necessarily mean lower gas/diesel prices in U.S. The U.S. though saves more because we don't have the transportation cost other places will have.
Thanks for this insight.
Is your opinion that refined products in the US are more aligned with Brent than WTI based on historical price correlations? If so, isn't there a significant possibility that this is no longer the case, or that the correlation is going to be weaker?
Have refined products in the US risen as much as they have in Europe? If not, why not?
I am willing to bet you know more about the oil markets than I do, so I am really asking for your opinions and analysis on this, not just being snarky.
sts7049 said:
we clearly had no plan for the SOH. I don't see how you say otherwise
flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Ag with kids said:sts7049 said:
we clearly had no plan for the SOH. I don't see how you say otherwise
Well, it sounds like the MILITARY failed then.
The POTUS doesn't make up these military plans - the MILITARY does.
Then the POTUS approves/disapproves plans...
Or are you saying that the military presented Trump with a plan for this current kinetic action and Trump said..."Well, I like all of this stuff, but don't do that part with the SOH"?
Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
sts7049 said:Ag with kids said:sts7049 said:
we clearly had no plan for the SOH. I don't see how you say otherwise
Well, it sounds like the MILITARY failed then.
The POTUS doesn't make up these military plans - the MILITARY does.
Then the POTUS approves/disapproves plans...
Or are you saying that the military presented Trump with a plan for this current kinetic action and Trump said..."Well, I like all of this stuff, but don't do that part with the SOH"?
the former, 100%.
flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
Can you contemplate the potential that is indeed the plan? They may not have looped you in on the memo or asked you to jump on the bridge to discuss, but these things are happening. Last….
Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
Can you contemplate the potential that is indeed the plan? They may not have looped you in on the memo or asked you to jump on the bridge to discuss, but these things are happening. Last….
I brought it up in the other thread several times. But late last week it was being reported that this was not being discussed by the WH. I'm not in the room, I have no clue if it's true or not.
It would piss off the Valeros, Marathons, and Exxons. It'd also piss off the EU but that's the leverage to get them to help.
sts7049 said:
here's a more specific question to get at my point. as of a day or two ago we still had US flagged vessels stuck In the strait. why would this be tolerated?
You're confusing the presence of a plan with the success/achievement of it. War is not a desire and then outcome proposition.sts7049 said:
here's a more specific question to get at my point. as of a day or two ago we still had US flagged vessels stuck In the strait. why would this be tolerated?
flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
Can you contemplate the potential that is indeed the plan? They may not have looped you in on the memo or asked you to jump on the bridge to discuss, but these things are happening. Last….
I brought it up in the other thread several times. But late last week it was being reported that this was not being discussed by the WH. I'm not in the room, I have no clue if it's true or not.
It would piss off the Valeros, Marathons, and Exxons. It'd also piss off the EU but that's the leverage to get them to help.
I would imagine a select few at those places may have been "consulted" as things developed.
These things circle at the highest levels and are classified for a reason. They are NOT for public consumption. ****, they are not even for INSIDER or CONNECTED discussion. The term is "need to know". Flown, Dan and f16 do not meet that.
However, you can go back through time in any major conflict and see there were early wheels turning. Inventories kept a bit higher, ships in transit a bit longer, and to use some of that flex to work on capacity.
I base some of my assessments on just being outrageously curious about history from many angles. I have a what is likely hyperthymesia. My friends and family hate me for it. Put me in front of a TV playing Great Courses (since History Channel turned alien long ago) and I can put it all together with astounding accuracy. That's not a brag, it can be a drain, hence my propensity for the hippie lettuce.
That said, most of my assessments are applying common sense Occam's razor or whatever you want to call it. BTW, this is what many contributors on here use.
It is NOT common sense to believe Trump had no plan on Hormuz. It's the opposite. It's asinine and shows influence unless there is information that has not yet been shared.
Dan Scott said:BusterAg said:Dan Scott said:
We'd likely be in the same position if Maduro was still there. We lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil temporarily so likely would have done the same for Venezuela.
Refined product prices are linked more to Brent. Cheaper WTI means US refiners print money, but doesn't necessarily mean lower gas/diesel prices in U.S. The U.S. though saves more because we don't have the transportation cost other places will have.
Thanks for this insight.
Is your opinion that refined products in the US are more aligned with Brent than WTI based on historical price correlations? If so, isn't there a significant possibility that this is no longer the case, or that the correlation is going to be weaker?
Have refined products in the US risen as much as they have in Europe? If not, why not?
I am willing to bet you know more about the oil markets than I do, so I am really asking for your opinions and analysis on this, not just being snarky.
That's historical but I don't see that changing. The US refiner is going to sell product to the highest bidder whether that be in China, Europe, or USA. So if the rest of the world is creating refined product based off higher input oil prices, that is what will set the price of refined product. We get the feedstock advantage.
It's gone up more in Europe but that's from the cost of transportation. A VLCC for example, loads about 2M barrels of crude used to cost about $50,000/day or around $2/BBL. It went up $400K/day and $15/bbl earlier this month. The cost to load a LR or MR of refined product from USGC to Europe was about 3X.
The US doesn't have to pay those transportation costs other parts of the world have to which keeps us lower.
Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
Can you contemplate the potential that is indeed the plan? They may not have looped you in on the memo or asked you to jump on the bridge to discuss, but these things are happening. Last….
Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:Dan Scott said:flown-the-coop said:
The US refiners will offer the US best price then sell whatever we do not want to the highest bidder. At least under Trump.
Biden would sell every drop of oil in the SPR through Hunter's trading company that ultimately funds Soros dismantling the United States as long as it means a clean diaper and another ice cream cone. The diaper being negotiable.
Trump administration needs to impose an export ban like China then. Right now that's not the case which means US refiners will be printing money. Same thing happened in 2022.
Can you contemplate the potential that is indeed the plan? They may not have looped you in on the memo or asked you to jump on the bridge to discuss, but these things are happening. Last….
I brought it up in the other thread several times. But late last week it was being reported that this was not being discussed by the WH. I'm not in the room, I have no clue if it's true or not.
It would piss off the Valeros, Marathons, and Exxons. It'd also piss off the EU but that's the leverage to get them to help.
I would imagine a select few at those places may have been "consulted" as things developed.
These things circle at the highest levels and are classified for a reason. They are NOT for public consumption. ****, they are not even for INSIDER or CONNECTED discussion. The term is "need to know". Flown, Dan and f16 do not meet that.
However, you can go back through time in any major conflict and see there were early wheels turning. Inventories kept a bit higher, ships in transit a bit longer, and to use some of that flex to work on capacity.
I base some of my assessments on just being outrageously curious about history from many angles. I have a what is likely hyperthymesia. My friends and family hate me for it. Put me in front of a TV playing Great Courses (since History Channel turned alien long ago) and I can put it all together with astounding accuracy. That's not a brag, it can be a drain, hence my propensity for the hippie lettuce.
That said, most of my assessments are applying common sense Occam's razor or whatever you want to call it. BTW, this is what many contributors on here use.
It is NOT common sense to believe Trump had no plan on Hormuz. It's the opposite. It's asinine and shows influence unless there is information that has not yet been shared.
There were early signs of something coming. I'm a finance guy so I look to the market with the old adage, "follow the money."
OPEC+ lifted their production quota back in September despite oil markets being stable. China purchased most all surplus and has been filling their SPR.
In January, when XOM was trading at 120, millions of dollars of upside calls were bought for April and March expiration at 135 and 140. This is with Exxon already at record high valuation despite oil at around $60.
In February, XOM $150 calls were getting bought up and just last week, XOM 220 calls for June 2027 were being bought. Millions of dollars worth of calls.
Somebody knows something. Energy stocks continue to make new highs which suggest to me export ban isn't coming and we're going to be in a supply disrupted market for an extended time.
flown-the-coop said:
The start of Hormuz DOES NOT BELONG TO IRAN. International waters. People need to get that strait straight. Iran violates a multitude of international "laws" by attacking any ship transiting.
Every country in the entire world is within their own right to protect that transit.
Iran is playing dumb games and winning dead prizes.
The Strait of Hormuz is not "closed". Shippers are simply making calculated decisions.
Folks need to understand the regime was also setting up to make a sort of de facto toll both for Hormuz. That cannot happen. It's international waters going back to the very beginnings of maritime "laws". It is not a river or lake or canal. It's open waters.
China is on the clock right now. Step up or step out. Step out a we direct where the oil goes. Because we can control the strait.
flown-the-coop said:
China is on the clock right now. Step up or step out. Step out a we direct where the oil goes. Because we can control the strait.