Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

I'm hoping the writers get some more job stability out of this.

The lack of stability does make the film and media industry extremely difficult.

Do the big media companies offer good perks? Is this just an issue with smaller less well funded groups being able to afford what the union is asking for?

"What I don’t understand is why the legacy companies and broadcast networks are prepared to take this issue on when it’s only benefiting their competitors, which are the streamers"

Same, John. Same. https://t.co/MK476cyTWL

— WGA Writer Lauren Andrea is on strike (@wolfiegoldmine) May 15, 2023

I think it breaks down that streamers really really don't want to reveal their exact numbers of subscribers vs watches to investors.

The Tony Awards for next month will be on TV but no idea what it will look like yet.

Quote:

---

As has been previously reported, the Writers Guilds of America East and West (WGA) will not negotiate an interim agreement or a waiver for the Tony Awards.

However, Tony Awards Productions (a joint venture of the Broadway League and the American Theatre Wing) has communicated with us that they are altering this year's show to conform with specific requests from the WGA, and therefore the WGA will not be picketing the show.

Responsibility for having to make changes to the format of the 2023 Tony Awards rests squarely on the shoulders of Paramount/CBS and their allies. They continue to refuse to negotiate a fair contract for the writers represented by the WGA.

As they have stood by us, we stand with our fellow workers on Broadway who are impacted by our strike.

---

The Tony Awards are a go — there will be an awards show broadcast on CBS on June 11 — with unspecified alterations. "As they have stood by us, we stand with our fellow workers on Broadway who are impacted by our strike," the W.G.A. said. https://t.co/DYQLS68CHY

— Michael Paulson (@MichaelPaulson) May 16, 2023

As a former reality producer and now WGA writer I can confirm this is 💯 true. All the unscripted TV groups I’m in are talking about how slow it is now and how slow it’s been for almost a year. No one is working. The studios are bluffing when they say they’ve stockpiled content. https://t.co/mqnuZmOiW4

— Minoti Vaishnav 💕 (@minotimusic) May 15, 2023

I have to admit content feels plenty stockpiled

The @WGAWest claims in a new memo that its proposed contract rejected by studios would cost Disney $75 million per year, or less than 0.1% of its annual revenue.

For other studios, the increased costs are even lower https://t.co/yC7CLCBTlo

— TheWrap (@TheWrap) May 16, 2023

WGA Negotiators Say Long Strike Would Cost Studios More Than A Settlement https://t.co/VTEEU9mzYb pic.twitter.com/qMUF6Al6vL

— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) May 16, 2023

WGA Strike: ‘The Penguin’ Starring Colin Farrell Suspends Production After Picketing https://t.co/4ShAYLElkJ pic.twitter.com/iNyl3jHZy1

— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) May 16, 2023

Less than a penny on the dollar. Less than a FRACTION of a penny on the dollar, and we could all get back to work. Which tells you, the AMPTP is not fighting us over money. They're fighting us to show that nobody is allowed to say "no" to the financial and tech bros, *ever*. https://t.co/HylZky7bWj

— John Rogers (@jonrog1) May 16, 2023

Of course, part of this whole ordeal is playing games and painting narratives, and I'd like to see the profits on this chart instead. But none of that changes the fact that Apple and Amazon are still the ones budging the *least* on all of this, when it's clear that, no matter how you slice it, they have more money to play with than God.

If they capped actor pay at say 7.5 million per movie or 250k per TV episode would that allow the writers to be paid what they want?

Lionsgate may be a more pure example compared to Apple, Amazon etc.
It doesn't take much research to understand these studios' "profits" are lumpy at best. They are always rolling over money into the next project. Plus they take on lots of debt to fund operations (and expansion), which is now more expensive than has been in the last 15 years or so.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000929351/000092935123000005/lgfa-20221231.htm

HollywoodBQ said:

---

Quad Dog said:

---

Any number is a fraction if you try hard enough.

---

Reminds me of a story from my wife's work where all reports had to be presented in pie charts.

Problem came when they need to show year over year growth.
Their heads exploded when they figured out that you couldn't show more than 100% on a pie chart.

---

Use concentric circles? Changes in percentage can be represented by differing the area within each ring. Basically like a dart board but the spokes will be jagged.

The Writers Guild of America strike is clearly taking a toll on production, as the Los Angeles permitting agency reported a 69.5% decline in on-location permits last week. https://t.co/AKqvKTEhu2

— Variety (@Variety) May 17, 2023

Just a random question, but what's really the point of the picket line in 2023? Just a holdover from times gone by? Seems like there are a million better ways to use your time.

They're literally stopping trucks going through certain studio gates, and have shut down multiple productions. Just by picketing. Not to mention, a few studio execs have stupidly complained about the noise/honking outside their offices, which has only made the picket lines and traffic amp up the noise. Never mind the awareness being raised all over LA, and the national news coverage the picket lines are receiving.

SAG/AFTRA friends! This is big. If you’ve been unhappy with shitty streaming residuals and want to keep AI from stealing your jobs, VOTE YES! https://t.co/zzTkl0S2eW

— Kerri Doherty (@squideatsquid) May 18, 2023

If SAG vote to strike and the DGA joins, too, then the AMPTP will be pretty fucked if they don’t make a deal. Go get ‘em. https://t.co/YuqMg0GVXU

— Eric Vespe (@EricVespe) May 18, 2023

Every picket I've been on has had huge - I mean huge - SAG participation. They know it's all the same battle. https://t.co/rrveAJgccJ

— Justin Sherin (@wychstreet) May 18, 2023

SAG-AFTRA hasn't authorized a strike vote in 37 years. Studios have effectively alienated every working creative in this town. They will lose. We will win.

— Minhal Baig (@minhalbaig) May 18, 2023

The WGA and SAG striking side by side ❤️ pic.twitter.com/DD6oxjilba

— Emma Dudley (@captainEmdud) May 18, 2023

BenTheGoodAg said:

---

I still don't think that tells the full story. Just because Apple is making overall profits doesn't mean that their streaming business is in the black. Ultimately, they won't keep streaming if they're losing money on that service.

Not taking the side of Apple - they're probably making money. But they're also roughly estimated to have 1/10th of the subscriber base of the likes of Netflix and Amazon and their writer costs account for 1/5 and 1/2 of those companies respectively.

---

Apple and Amazon are also harder to factor because they are willing to take a loss on their services because it sells other products.

Quad Dog said:

---

I think it breaks down that streamers really really don't want to reveal their exact numbers of subscribers vs watches to investors.

---

that's a very good point. Probably would put a lot of fear and doubt in investors if there's was a big gap between paid subscribers and how many actually consistently watch their programming….

TCTTS said:

---

SAG/AFTRA friends! This is big. If you’ve been unhappy with shitty streaming residuals and want to keep AI from stealing your jobs, VOTE YES! https://t.co/zzTkl0S2eW

— Kerri Doherty (@squideatsquid) May 18, 2023

If SAG vote to strike and the DGA joins, too, then the AMPTP will be pretty fucked if they don’t make a deal. Go get ‘em. https://t.co/YuqMg0GVXU

— Eric Vespe (@EricVespe) May 18, 2023

Every picket I've been on has had huge - I mean huge - SAG participation. They know it's all the same battle. https://t.co/rrveAJgccJ

— Justin Sherin (@wychstreet) May 18, 2023

SAG-AFTRA hasn't authorized a strike vote in 37 years. Studios have effectively alienated every working creative in this town. They will lose. We will win.

— Minhal Baig (@minhalbaig) May 18, 2023

The WGA and SAG striking side by side ❤️ pic.twitter.com/DD6oxjilba

— Emma Dudley (@captainEmdud) May 18, 2023

---

Other than an update about Ai, internally I haven't heard squat from my DGA reps. I am guessing they are trying hard to cut a deal and leave the writers on the picket line like 2007.

That's the impression I'm getting as well, but who knows.

Flavor Flav

A true spread of burgers and pizzas at Warner Bros courtesy of Flava Flav! Please come picket and eat! #WGAstrong pic.twitter.com/V1pJZ4raIr

— Brittani Nichols *Strike Version* (@BisHilarious) May 18, 2023

It seems like the AMPTP is so large and clunky that the additional strike could make this an even longer work stoppage.

It looks like so many actors in SAG are already on the picket because they are either already members of the WGA or supporting their friends and colleagues. The SAG strike seems almost inevitable at this point.

— i’m regular gita (@xoxogossipgita) May 19, 2023

Zaslav getting hit with a Pay Your Writers chant in Boston. This is so good. pic.twitter.com/00pL4ahAqZ

— Mike Scollins (@mikescollins) May 21, 2023

"It's different when you're in a room with someone. Something magic happens."
He said while dismantling writer's rooms and being heckled by BU students screaming "PAY YOUR WRITERS." 🤌 pic.twitter.com/FeevxviQA4

— Jeff Torres (@iamJeffTorres) May 21, 2023

Also someone flew this over the ceremony pic.twitter.com/R4DEcDEJJq

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) May 21, 2023

Zavlav has made himself the face of Hollywood workforce oppression. https://t.co/7CQ0ll0bA2

— N O S ⋊ Ɔ I ᴚ ᴚ Ǝ ᗡ ⊥ ⊥ O Ɔ S (@scottderrickson) May 21, 2023

In a world full of good ideas, trotting out a man currently seen as one of the biggest villains in the ongoing Hollywood writers’ strike before a sea of Gen Z college graduates is decidedly not one of them.https://t.co/FVBpLCUfOU

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) May 21, 2023

legitimately curious

what sort of leverage do the writers have in this strike against normal public opinion/apathy?

is there some important franchise getting delayed in the short term that gives this teeth?

is this going to mess with things that matter like dune?

It likely won't affect the 2023 movie slate much, seeing as the edits of most 2023 movies are either locked or close to being locked, with only effects and sound and other non-editing post production left. The first hit will be scripted broadcast series in the fall, which traditionally start in September. ABC. CBS. FOX. NBC. Don't expect any more scripted content on those channels for the rest of the year. It'll then start to get dicey for cable/streaming series soon after. Some stuff will manage to be completed and released in the third quarter, but not a ton, seeing as so many productions have been shut down, and will continue to be shut down. In other words, the public won't feel anything this summer, but fall TV could get be pretty bleak.

Honestly, though, all that really matters is how much money the studios - and the local economy - continue to lose. And I think that's probably all going to come to a head by the end of the summer, before the public really starts to notice, especially if SAG strikes as well. That said, some people think the strike could last until October, but I personally think the governor and other big wig intermediaries will step in before then.

From tonight's Matt Belloni newsletter...

Quote:

---

Strike Update: Will the Actors Prompt a Tri-Guild Walk-Out?

With most attention focused on the writers' strike and directors' negotiations, I'm looking at the upcoming SAG-AFTRA negotiations, which start June 7, and at the June 30 contract expiration. My sources close to the situation are outlining a thicket of key issues.

On basic wages, the actors union will likely want increases that address inflation, like the DGA but unlike the WGA's somewhat tamer proposal (that was nonetheless rejected by the studios and streamers). On streamingresiduals, actors haven't given up on transparency and a success metric, an implicit rejection of the DGA's concession on this issue and a very sticky wicket for data-stingy streamers. The actors are also concerned about their pension and health plans, which are funded by employer contributions based on actors' session fees and residuals. The problem is that only the first couple hundred thousand dollars a year in earnings count for this purpose, with no contributions levied on earnings above that amount, a ceiling that hasn't budged in decades. That starves the plan of full-throated contributions based on the union's higher earnersmoney that might have avoided the debacle from several years ago when the plan pushed many seniors onto Medicare.

Then there's generative A.I., which poses an even more imminent threat to actors. A usable A.I. script is probably some years out, but A.I. is turbocharging audio and video deepfake technology. The studio counter to the WGA's proposal for A.I. restrictions was annual meetings, which is absurd on its face: the technology is changing so quickly that monthly meetings and mid-course contract revisions are going to be necessary. As I told KCRW on Thursday, in response to a comment by Justine Bateman,"If you squeeze the soul out of entertainment and turn it into something that is simply generated by the ghost in the machine, there is something lost… in addition to the economic oppression that can result."

The union wants guardrails on self-tape auditions, which puts three distinct technologies in playstreaming, A.I., and remote work. Can the companies and SAG-AFTRA reach a deal on all this, and more, in their three week window? I doubt it, and so do my sources. I expect a high turnout on the current strike authorization vote (where balloting strategically closes just two days before talks start) and likely authorization north of 85 percent.

Several days ago, I wrote that an actors' strike was possible, but I now believe that one is likely. And if the directors don't achieve a deal in the next several weekswhich would probably have to include a favored nations reopener, allowing the DGA to gain the benefit of any better terms achieved by either of the other two guildsthen we might just see directors walk out as well. A tri-guild Hollywood walkout? It's never happened before, but this time it just might.

---