Writers Guild strike 2023

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Cinco Ranch Aggie
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TCTTS said:

Red Five said:

They certainly can and I hope they would. But within the context of the writer's strike, now you are talking about only the top level of writers being irreplaceable. The people writing for Jimmy Fallon are by no means auteurs. Nanomachine's point was that writers should be more concerned about it than they appear to be.

I hope that you are right and AI doesn't become a big player in entertainment or any industry really.

You haven't been reading my posts if you think my point is that only top level writers are irreplaceable. Again, what I'm simply trying to say is that human beings will *always* be involved in the writing process.

Think of it a bit like Phil Tippett and Jurassic Park. Originally, Spielberg was going to do the dinosaurs with stop motion, and had stop motion expert Phil Tippett go pretty far down that road, to the point where multiple test scenes had already been shot with a stop motion t-rex and stop motion velociraptors. Then, at the last minute, a test was done on a computer, almost on a whim... and the rest is history. But here's the thing... Tippett wasn't out of a job (even though he famously declared that he was now "extinct" - a line Spielberg loved so much he put in the movie). Because Tippett knew from his stop motion work, better than anyone, how dinosaurs moved, he ended up overseeing all of the computer animations, and found a new career path. Doing something very similar... but also different.

Roughly the same thing will happen in screenwriting, in that the A.I. will need massaging, from storytelling experts, both in the writing process itself, and again, throughout production. Will that ultimately result in fewer tried-and-true writer jobs? Probably so. But I don't think there's anything the WGA can do in these negotiations to force the studios from going down that path. It's inevitable. New jobs *will* be created in the process, though, and writers *will* still help tell these stories, and help tell jokes on late night, etc.

Basically, I see AI as less of a replacement and more of tool, or co-author at best. The Tarantinos of the world may likely never utilize it, while the studios will, but either way, writers will be involved in the process, from top to bottom, some more than others.
This is the way I see it. The AI can absolutely generate the basis for whatever story that you want to tell, but the AI is an emotionless tool that cannot possibly capture any of the deep human emotions that come through relationships with each other, with the environment in which they live, etc. You'll need an actual human to flesh out characters, to make them human and to inject life into a bunch of words the AI generates. Or think of it like this - Carrie Fisher, well known as Princess Leia, was also a screen writer perhaps not in title but in actual work. She apparently did a number on the Hook script, if what I've read is true, that took that movie beyond Captain Hook and Peter Pan.

AI is something that should concern nearly every one, but I think the smart play is to understand what it can do and more importantly, what it cannot. I'm a software engineer. Yes, AI can generate C# code. But can it sit down with clients to actually understand the issues they need to solve?
Brian Earl Spilner
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TCTTS
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(spoiler alert: it cannot)
bluefire579
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TCTTS said:


(spoiler alert: it cannot)
This is supposed to be a spoiler free thread
Capybara
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TCTTS said:

Red Five said:

They certainly can and I hope they would. But within the context of the writer's strike, now you are talking about only the top level of writers being irreplaceable. The people writing for Jimmy Fallon are by no means auteurs. Nanomachine's point was that writers should be more concerned about it than they appear to be.

I hope that you are right and AI doesn't become a big player in entertainment or any industry really.

You haven't been reading my posts if you think my point is that only top level writers are irreplaceable. Again, what I'm simply trying to say is that human beings will *always* be involved in the writing process.

Think of it a bit like Phil Tippett and Jurassic Park. Originally, Spielberg was going to do the dinosaurs with stop motion, and had stop motion expert Phil Tippett go pretty far down that road, to the point where multiple test scenes had already been shot with a stop motion t-rex and stop motion velociraptors. Then, at the last minute, a test was done on a computer, almost on a whim... and the rest is history. But here's the thing... Tippett wasn't out of a job (even though he famously declared that he was now "extinct" - a line Spielberg loved so much he put in the movie). Because Tippett knew from his stop motion work, better than anyone, how dinosaurs moved, he ended up overseeing all of the computer animations, and found a new career path. Doing something very similar... but also different.

Roughly the same thing will happen in screenwriting, in that the A.I. will need massaging, from storytelling experts, both in the writing process itself, and again, throughout production. Will that ultimately result in fewer tried-and-true writer jobs? Probably so. But I don't think there's anything the WGA can do in these negotiations to force the studios from going down that path. It's inevitable. New jobs *will* be created in the process, though, and writers *will* still help tell these stories, and help tell jokes on late night, etc.

Basically, I see AI as less of a replacement and more of tool, or co-author at best. The Tarantinos of the world may likely never utilize it, while the studios will, but either way, writers will be involved in the process, from top to bottom, some more than others.
I haven't been on this board, or even site, for that long, but I'm kind of surprised that you've yet to mention Linklater in this thread. His genius goes far beyond the script, in fact his vision is least represented in the scripts themselves, but having seen many of his films, I wasn't in the least surprised to find that the Before Trilogy scripts had naturalistic rhythms on their own. We're lucky to have him, that's for sure.
Olsen
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Quote:

To a lot of people outside the negotiating room, a strike by Hollywood writers felt inevitable.

But it didn't feel that way inside the room. Until the last day or two, negotiators for both labor and management believed that the other side would give, and that a deal would be reached at the last moment.

But picket lines in Los Angeles and New York this week tell a different story. The conflict that led to the breakdown of talks on the night of May 1 began the day before. On April 30, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers delivered a 40-page package of proposals to WGA's negotiating committee. It did not include key elements that the Writers Guild of America has insisted are essential to sealing a new three-year contract, including a mandatory minimum number of weeks for TV writers and a minimum staff size for writers rooms.

The AMPTP thought the guild might accept that those items and others that the studios see as non-starters would have to be dropped. But on May 1, the WGA responded to the AMPTP's 40 pages with a couple of sentences, withdrawing two minor items.

"At that point it really shifted the perception," said one studio executive. "It was like, 'Oh crap, it's 2007 all over again.'"

From the WGA vantage point, a strike became inevitable when Carol Lombardini, the long-serving president of the AMPTP, informed negotiators that the studios would make no further moves on several of the guild's "core issues."

"Once we got into the evening, there was a moment where it became very clear that they had nothing more to give, and were, in fact, asking us to drop most of our key proposals," said Michele Mulroney, vice president of WGA West.

The AMPTP was willing to sweeten the deal at the margins, but only if the guild withdrew those key proposals, said Chris Keyser, co-chair of the WGA negotiating committee and a former WGA West president. "At that point there was nowhere to go," Keyser said. "There was no point in continuing."

Negotiations were expected to last until the previous contract's formal expiration deadline of midnight PT on May 1. But at 7:54 p.m., the AMPTP issued a statement announcing that talks had broken off. The guild negotiators stayed inside the AMPTP building at the Sherman Oaks Galleria until 8:30 p.m., when they walked out looking somber. They had voted unanimously to recommend a strike, which was officially announced 10 minutes later.

"It was a very big, heavy decision that we had to make," said Betsy Thomas, secretary-treasurer of WGA West. "I think we really wished we had a path forward."

For now, the two sides remain miles apart, and there is no clear path to restart negotiations. WGA leaders say the studios refuse to accept that "structural change" is needed to stop the dismantling of weekly employment. Studios counter that the guild can't roll back the clock to a different era of television.

AMPTP companies say they have already offered historic improvements on the guild contract, including an 11% increase in minimum rates in the first year for writer-producers. That includes a 4% increase on all minimums, plus a 7% increase to create a premium tier for everyone at or above the level of co-producer. The 4% increase was not a final offer, and could have gone higher, they say.

The AMPTP also agreed to tie streaming residuals to the level of foreign subscriber numbers that each streamer counts, though not at the level the WGA proposed. And it would have agreed to create a wage premium for so-called "mini rooms," though again, not at the level or with the parameters of the WGA's initial ask.

There were some signs of progress in the final few days of the formal negotiations that began on March 20. That created some optimism on the studio side that a strike could be averted. The WGA wanted to do away with the "span cap" which limits protections on "overscale" income to those making less than $400,000 a year. But they agreed to keep the cap in place but raise it to $450,000. (For writers covered by the cap, their episodic fee can buy no more than 2.4 weeks of work.) And the studios agreed to pay script fees for entry-level staff writers a longstanding WGA ask.

But as it got down to the last 48 hours, the studio negotiators complained that the WGA still would not spell out its top priorities. And from the guild point of view, there was frustration that the AMPTP simply refused to talk about what it saw as many of its most important items.

"We were clear with them from Day One that the way they had broken the system required us to talk about multiple things," Keyser said. "Everyone knows there's something terribly wrong, and the studios have done it. On so much of what writers need to make this profession viable, they just wouldn't talk."

For the studios, the biggest non-starter is a TV staffing minimum. The guild is proposing that "pre-greenlight" rooms employ at least six writers. After a show is ordered to series, they want a minimum of one writer per episode, up to six episodes, and one writer for every two episodes after that, up to 12 writers. To prevent studios from filling all those positions with entry-level writers, they also want a portion of that minimum to be set aside for writer-producers.

The guild also wanted writers to be guaranteed at least three weeks of work per episode.

To the guild, simply raising minimum rates for writers wasn't enough, given the erosion in the term of employment and the number of writers per show.

"In order for writers to be adequately paid, we also needed to be guaranteed that writers are hired and are hired for a certain number of weeks," Keyser said. "A writer who isn't hired gets no minimums."

But the studios say they made clear at the outset that a staffing minimum would not be part of the deal. They argue it is not creatively necessary and that it robs showrunners who are WGA members of the discretion to hire as many, or as few, writers as they want.

The concept strikes many as a throwback to an earlier era of unionism, when unions bargained for guaranteed jobs for their members, regardless of whether there was work for them or not.

"It sounds like featherbedding," said John McLean, a former longtime CBS labor relations executive who became executive director of the WGA in 1998 and was fired in 2005. "When I was at the WGA, I stayed away from things like featherbedding. In the short run it sounds great, but in the long run it's a bad model," he said. "One of the things the Writers Guild can always say is, 'We're a meritocracy.'"

Keyser responded that it's not featherbedding, because those writers would actually have work to do.

"What John McLean should know is that it's standard in labor contracts to demand a certain amount of employees, employed for a certain amount of time, who are necessary to do the job," Keyser said.

"Featherbedding" is unlawful if it means requiring the hiring of workers who do not do any work. But many unions do have staffing minimums, including firefighters and nurses. Employee workload is also a "mandatory" subject of bargaining under the law, so employers do have to negotiate about it in good faith, even if they ultimately do not accept the union's proposal.

The studios say they did explain their reasons for rejecting the idea. They have pointed to auteurs who write entire shows by themselves, such as "The White Lotus" creator Mike White. They argue that such writers should not be forced to hire a staff to do little or nothing. But the guild counters that almost all shows do have writing staffs even many that appear to come from just one person and that writers who aren't credited can nevertheless be helpful in contributing to the process.

The WGA is also quick to say that is not their only issue, and that there are also key deal-breakers for feature writers and comedy-variety writers as well.

"It was a deal-breaker about an entire agenda," said David Goodman, the other co-chair of the WGA negotiating committee and a past WGA West president. "They literally flatly rejected any discussion about those issues on feature writers, on the comedy-variety issues. And on all of our main television issues, they said, 'We will not talk about this,' which means they weren't even willing to get into discussion about our opening offer. They wouldn't even deem to get into a negotiation to see if there was a compromise."

The studios also rejected the idea of paying a higher streaming residual for hit shows, as they refuse to share their viewership data that would be required to calculate a so-called performance-based residual. That issue appears to have receded, however, as the focus turns to finding a way to account for streamers' international subscribers in the residual formula.

Among the thorniest issues is artificial intelligence. The WGA came in with a proposal to prevent AI from being considered as "literary material" or "source material" under the contract. That would mean that even if AI material were used in the screenwriting process, it would not affect writers' compensation or credits. That would rob the studios of any economic incentive to use AI, at least for guild-covered projects. But as written, the proposal would also allow writers who want to use AI to do so and could even give them an economic incentive to do so.

The WGA has said that its goal is in fact to prevent the "use" of AI, and has argued that AI material cannot be copyrighted anyway.

The subject has been the source of deep mutual suspicion, and there was little, if any, constructive engagement about it in the room. The AMPTP did offer a "side letter" that would have underscored language, which is already in the contract, that specifies that a writer "shall not be deemed to include any corporate or impersonal purveyor of literary material."

The studios also offered to meet annually to discuss the subject. That was not enough to allay the guild's concerns.

Though AI may seem like a minor issue now, guild leaders say they fear what could happen down the road. The AMPTP refused to rule out using it at some point in the future, as technology advances, according to guild leaders.

"We fear the possibility of AI, which could mean that hundreds and hundreds of shows could work with one writer and a machine," Keyser said.

For now, there are no plans to return to the table any time soon. Keyser and Goodman both refused to talk about their "bottom line," but Keyser did say that any eventual agreement must address structural issues, such as the term of employment, and "return to writers the money that was taken from them in the past 10 years."

The AMPTP is turning its focus to the Directors Guild of America, which has its own set of issues to discuss when bargaining begins a week from today. One studio source said that if talks are to restart, the WGA will have to make the first call.

The guild is focused instead on exacting an economic price for the studios' intransigence. It's anybody's guess how long the strike will last.

"As the strike progresses, of course, there's pressure on our members," Mulroney said. "But at the same time, we know there is pain and pressure on the companies we're striking. So change is never free… We have about as strong a backbone as you can get. We're united, and we're very clear about what we're here to do."


https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-strike-amptp-hollywood-1235602326/
Counterpoint
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BenTheGoodAg said:

Could you imagine asking AI to write a Wes Anderson script?

It might be the best last defense against a Terminator-style singularity.


A Wes Anderson movie WITHOUT the Wes Anderson visuals would be a very strange thing to watch.
Claude!
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Counterpoint said:

BenTheGoodAg said:

Could you imagine asking AI to write a Wes Anderson script?

It might be the best last defense against a Terminator-style singularity.


A Wes Anderson movie WITHOUT the Wes Anderson visuals would be a very strange thing to watch.
To be fair, a Wes Anderson movie WITH the Wes Anderson visuals is often pretty strange itself.
cone
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Could an AI write an episode of The Wire?

Absolutely.
TCTTS
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This is really good news. The WGA held their big meeting in LA tonight for members, in order to go over everything in person, in more detail, and the fact that members and representatives from all the other guilds attended as well is a great show of solidarity. The more solidarity among the unions, the quicker this could potentially end, especially with the DGA and SAG about to negotiate their deals as well…


maroon barchetta
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Claude! said:

Counterpoint said:

BenTheGoodAg said:

Could you imagine asking AI to write a Wes Anderson script?

It might be the best last defense against a Terminator-style singularity.


A Wes Anderson movie WITHOUT the Wes Anderson visuals would be a very strange thing to watch.
To be fair, a Wes Anderson movie WITH the Wes Anderson visuals is often pretty strange itself.


Brian Earl Spilner
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TCTTS
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Olsen
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TCTTS
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TCTTS
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tysker
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Paramount playing 4D chess with another set of bad earnings during the strike and cutting dividends?
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/paramount-global-revenue-disappoints-subscriber-loss-weak-ad-market-2023-05-04/

Quote:

Sales for its TV media segment declined by 8% from a year earlier, and advertising revenue fell by 11%.
Revenue at the company was $7.27 billion in the first quarter ended March 31, compared with analysts' average estimate of $7.42 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.

Overall, revenue in the company's direct-to-consumer unit, which includes streaming platforms Paramount+ and PlutoTV, grew 39% in the first quarter. Revenue from its filmed entertainment business, which makes and distributes movies and TV shows, fell 6%
...
The operating loss was $1.23 billion for the quarter, compared with an operating income of $775 million a year earlier.
Prophet00
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I know they have a huge catalog, but I'm not really impressed with Paramount+. I feel like Yellowstone is the only thing carrying them, and with that ending, are people going to get tired of the Sheridan universe?

Plus, the main people I know that watch broadcast programming like Blue Bloods are my parents age, and they don't really like streaming (technology aversions). Their broadcast shows are the overwhelming majority of shows on P+ it seems.
Brian Earl Spilner
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That Tom sign.
cajunaggie08
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Prophet00 said:

I know they have a huge catalog, but I'm not really impressed with Paramount+. I feel like Yellowstone is the only thing carrying them, and with that ending, are people going to get tired of the Sheridan universe?

Plus, the main people I know that watch broadcast programming like Blue Bloods are my parents age, and they don't really like streaming (technology aversions). Their broadcast shows are the overwhelming majority of shows on P+ it seems.

I still dont know how/why they greenlit selling all of South Park's tv episode streaming rights to HBOMax. I suppose that is guaranteed revenue. They have been getting around that by having South Park make more "movies" and specials that they can put on Paramount+.

If my kids were a few years younger we may have caved in to Paramount+ to get access to the Nick Jr stuff, but now they have moved past that and they have zero interest in any of the Nickelodeon library outside of occasionally watching SpongeBob on Prime Video of all places.

You are right that it just feels like Paramount+ is a place for CBS reruns and Star trek library as there hasnt been much to really pull me there outside of watching the latest Jackass movie last year.
Olsen
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

That Tom sign.


That sign is the consensus best one yet from the strike.
wangus12
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For a bunch of writers, their signs are really leaving a lot to be desired
Legal Custodian
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Prophet00 said:

I know they have a huge catalog, but I'm not really impressed with Paramount+. I feel like Yellowstone is the only thing carrying them, and with that ending, are people going to get tired of the Sheridan universe?

Plus, the main people I know that watch broadcast programming like Blue Bloods are my parents age, and they don't really like streaming (technology aversions). Their broadcast shows are the overwhelming majority of shows on P+ it seems.

Tell that to my 4 and 3 year old when it comes to Blaze and Bubble Guppies
TCTTS
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The Lost
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TCTTS said:





This is a dumb argument because it'd get rid of load management and the stars would actually play more. Getting rid of one of the most hated parts of the nba, is a huge win. They get paid too much to all quit.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Damn both of those would've been great.
Dr. Horrible
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TCTTS said:


Kieran Culkin definitely looking different these days…
TCTTS
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cajunaggie08
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Legal Custodian said:

Prophet00 said:

I know they have a huge catalog, but I'm not really impressed with Paramount+. I feel like Yellowstone is the only thing carrying them, and with that ending, are people going to get tired of the Sheridan universe?

Plus, the main people I know that watch broadcast programming like Blue Bloods are my parents age, and they don't really like streaming (technology aversions). Their broadcast shows are the overwhelming majority of shows on P+ it seems.

Tell that to my 4 and 3 year old when it comes to Blaze and Bubble Guppies
We just got past the Blaze and Bubble Guppies stage about 2 years ago. The crap on YouTube makes me miss those trucks and mer-people so bad
Capybara
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wangus12 said:

For a bunch of writers, their signs are really leaving a lot to be desired
Not surprising since anyone becomes less creative and more annoying as they spend more time on twitter and the internet altogether. Again, not that you're saying this, but any tech optimist who thinks either open or closed source AI/LLM models will birth great scripts or novels has not and never will write anything great because their inability to harness their own emotions and transform them into writing far beyond their own experiences is reflected into every one of their works.

Digital consciousness, again what they're all trying to "create", will only continue to flatten emotion and affect if we're all incentivized to participate in its works. I realize this is annoying, but everyone needs to understand that these guys want to continue to atomize our society along with all others.
tysker
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chatgpt: write funny protest slogan about movies

"More explosions, less exposition!"
"Stop the tyranny of terrible sequels!"
"We demand a refund for 'The Last Airbender'!"
"Down with the rom-com industrial complex!"
"Give us more cowbell and less Hollywood nonsense!"
"Say no to CGI overload!"
"Free the indie films from the shadow of blockbusters!"
"Stop the reboots before it's too late!"
"We want more movies that don't require brain bleach!"
"Make movies great again (for real this time)!"
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I hope everything works out well for the writers, except for the ones who worked on 'Wheel of Time'.
Chipotlemonger
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Bigfoot Is Real said:

I hope everything works out well for the writers, except for the ones who worked on 'Wheel of Time'.


As a big WoT fan, this hits too close to home. So much unused potential in that story.
bonfarr
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Are we about to find out what AI can do for TV and film scripts? I would love to see what kind of jumbled weird sitcom script AI would generate and someone try to film it.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
 
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