Not saying we are going there but this is kind of how the forecasting for 2021 started. Will be out of town over the weekend at a much warmer latitude but will probably turn off the water at the street before we leave; still don't trust the grid to handle another big storm.
Winter Storm Thread
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Last: 9 mo ago by Decay
I keep going back and forth (which I do every winter storm).
I may just drain as well. I have an older single-speed pump. The electric bill does not bother me but what does is the chance the thing just craps out on me in the middle of the night and causes issues before I wake up.
On the negative side, just have to keep an eye out for ice build-up etc....i forget how many days it took for ice to build in 2021....
I may just drain as well. I have an older single-speed pump. The electric bill does not bother me but what does is the chance the thing just craps out on me in the middle of the night and causes issues before I wake up.
On the negative side, just have to keep an eye out for ice build-up etc....i forget how many days it took for ice to build in 2021....
A couple of thing you can do for your pool if the power goes and your pumps stop running.
fill a few 2 liter bottles or gallon milk jugs about 1/2way with water and salt. Put 1 of these in each skimmer.
You can put several of these in the pool as well and/or put salt water in a rubbermade bin and float it in the pool.
If ice forms these give the water a place to expand/crush inward instead of outward which can damage your tile.
fill a few 2 liter bottles or gallon milk jugs about 1/2way with water and salt. Put 1 of these in each skimmer.
You can put several of these in the pool as well and/or put salt water in a rubbermade bin and float it in the pool.
If ice forms these give the water a place to expand/crush inward instead of outward which can damage your tile.
Garrelli 5000 said:
A couple of thing you can do for your pool if the power goes and your pumps stop running.
fill a few 2 liter bottles or gallon milk jugs about 1/2way with water and salt. Put 1 of these in each skimmer.
You can put several of these in the pool as well and/or put salt water in a rubbermade bin and float it in the pool.
If ice forms these give the water a place to expand/crush inward instead of outward which can damage your tile.
I had good luck with this in 2021. But used marine / rv antifreeze in water bottles. One in each skimmer, one in spa, two in the pool. If you go this route make sure you get alcohol free AF (propylene glycol).
The NWS |Ft. Worth Office is now on it, expect TV mets to follow in short order and the grocery store panic to begin.
By the way, some of the models bring the cold and precip in as early as Saturday night now, plan accordingly.
Exceptionally cold temps expected to arrive Sun night. We are watching the potential for snow or ice. Some areas may drop to below 10° Sun night into Mon morning. Monitor the forecast this week & begin taking precautions to protect: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes! #dfwwx #ctxwx pic.twitter.com/P9mpjIfQQp
— NWS Fort Worth (@NWSFortWorth) January 9, 2024
By the way, some of the models bring the cold and precip in as early as Saturday night now, plan accordingly.
I'd check the forecast for OKC tomorrow (Wednesday) and make your call on when to get her up there.Absolute said:
Thanks!
Figure they are probably much better at handling it than we are in general.
Did see that it is gonna get MUCH colder there in general. My little fashion before warmth Dallas girl is in for a rude awakening I think. We have been warning her, but we know nothing....
Specifically -
Right now the models show significant snow/ice on Friday in OKC and northward. And then the big cold air mass coming in right behind it on Saturday. You may have a limited window to get her back up there on Thursday, if the overnight model runs hold.
Once things get cold and precip gets layered down (especially for Oklahoma), it won't be warming up again until mid to late next week.
And that's if you even still want to get her up there. Looks like it could be a mess, but I don't know how much better prepared for significant weather extremes like this they are from an infrastructure and power grid standpoint.
Thanks for the input. Guess we will be waiting until the last minute to see what happens with classes and such. Really not prepared to go by Thursday. Honestly, this is planned as a "she is going back thing" not a "we are taking her back thing." She has the most capable bad weather car. Both our cars pretty much suck on snow and ice. Things get that bad, she will just have to go late, as I suspect most other students will.
Did just see the news forecast. They are onboard with the cold, but still staying away from the precipitation.
Did just see the news forecast. They are onboard with the cold, but still staying away from the precipitation.
The precipitation problem with the GFS, which locals use, is that it thinks the cold air mass will be pushed aside long enough for the moisture to get pushed out to the northeast of us to where the Ozarks catch it all.
There's just not that much time on the model runs for that to happen. They won't have good data on this until the storm system comes onshore in the Pacific Northwest sometime Thursday.
There's just not that much time on the model runs for that to happen. They won't have good data on this until the storm system comes onshore in the Pacific Northwest sometime Thursday.
What times are the models? I never remember with hurricane season and winter storms being the only times I ever get interested
Oh and by the way, models have us below freezing until next Wednesday. Then up to 40s on Thursday, then another arctic system with precipitation rolling in Friday and taking us below freezing again with the white stuff all next weekend.
Geesh, thought this was not supposed to happen until February......
TAMUallen said:
What times are the models? I never remember with hurricane season and winter storms being the only times I ever get interested
These they are spitting them out every three hours.
I only look at the 12z and 0z (6am, 6pm). Those are the major runs and have the most data inputted into them. The others are incremental runs with the same data inputs.
FTAG 2000 said:TAMUallen said:
What times are the models? I never remember with hurricane season and winter storms being the only times I ever get interested
These they are spitting them out every three hours.
I only look at the 12z and 0z (6am, 6pm). Those are the major runs and have the most data inputted into them. The others are incremental runs with the same data inputs.
Gracias
Flying to East Tennessee Monday. Means that I'll likely have travel delays Monday and then when I get to Johnson City, they are showing snow/ice for Tuesday. Going to make for a long painful week of business travel.
Sounds like most Metroplex folks are saying the precip is gonna push east of us. The radio even said just expect really cold and dry. Feel like this is setting up to be an epic mess because people are gonna have a false sense of security
NWS forecast discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Our second and more formidable cold front is slated to arrive
over the weekend, although its timing has about ~18 hours worth of
discrepancy among guidance at this stage. The ECMWF and its
ensembles continue to be the faster/earlier solutions with the
front`s arrival, even more so than the NAM at the extent of its
forecast time range. The earliest possible cold frontal timing for
North Texas is currently Saturday afternoon when the Euro ushers
the boundary across the Red River. A larger proportion of guidance
suggests this will not occur until Sunday morning. Needless to
say, this will have tremendous implications on the temperature
forecast for Sunday, as the faster Euro solution would likely keep
most of the area below freezing the entire day. The GFS and other
slower guidance would result in early morning high temperatures
in the 40s with readings falling into the 20s in the afternoon
and evening as the strongest cold advection ensues.
The greatest difficulty with this forecast at present is the
potential for any wintry precip to occur following the frontal
passage late Sunday night into the day Monday. The ECMWF suite has
been persistently advertising a trailing shortwave which would
induce intense isentropic ascent atop the frontal surface
resulting in widespread precipitation across much of the region.
This feature is largely absent from the GFS suite, and this trend
has remained true with all 00z guidance tonight. The presence of
this trailing shortwave energy will dictate whether we have a
very cold but dry Arctic intrusion, or if we`ll have to contend
with an episode of wintry precipitation. At this time, the drier
GFS solution seems more plausible given the rest of the large
scale pattern evolution. However, it would be prudent to carry at
least a 20-30% mention of a wintry mix roughly near and east of
the I-35 corridor from Sunday evening into Monday. In reality, one
of the two aforementioned scenarios will end up coming to
fruition, but until a defined trend is observed in guidance we`ll
need to play the middle ground and advertise either possibility.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FWD&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Our second and more formidable cold front is slated to arrive
over the weekend, although its timing has about ~18 hours worth of
discrepancy among guidance at this stage. The ECMWF and its
ensembles continue to be the faster/earlier solutions with the
front`s arrival, even more so than the NAM at the extent of its
forecast time range. The earliest possible cold frontal timing for
North Texas is currently Saturday afternoon when the Euro ushers
the boundary across the Red River. A larger proportion of guidance
suggests this will not occur until Sunday morning. Needless to
say, this will have tremendous implications on the temperature
forecast for Sunday, as the faster Euro solution would likely keep
most of the area below freezing the entire day. The GFS and other
slower guidance would result in early morning high temperatures
in the 40s with readings falling into the 20s in the afternoon
and evening as the strongest cold advection ensues.
The greatest difficulty with this forecast at present is the
potential for any wintry precip to occur following the frontal
passage late Sunday night into the day Monday. The ECMWF suite has
been persistently advertising a trailing shortwave which would
induce intense isentropic ascent atop the frontal surface
resulting in widespread precipitation across much of the region.
This feature is largely absent from the GFS suite, and this trend
has remained true with all 00z guidance tonight. The presence of
this trailing shortwave energy will dictate whether we have a
very cold but dry Arctic intrusion, or if we`ll have to contend
with an episode of wintry precipitation. At this time, the drier
GFS solution seems more plausible given the rest of the large
scale pattern evolution. However, it would be prudent to carry at
least a 20-30% mention of a wintry mix roughly near and east of
the I-35 corridor from Sunday evening into Monday. In reality, one
of the two aforementioned scenarios will end up coming to
fruition, but until a defined trend is observed in guidance we`ll
need to play the middle ground and advertise either possibility.
wangus12 said:
Sounds like most Metroplex folks are saying the precip is gonna push east of us. The radio even said just expect really cold and dry. Feel like this is setting up to be an epic mess because people are gonna have a false sense of security
Agreed.
Until the system that would generate storms comes on shore in the northwest, everyone is guessing on precipitation. And that won't happen until late a Friday early Saturday time frame.
The models are all in alignment on the cold. Pretty solid consensus for Sunday through Wednesday noon below freezing. And possible we get below freezing as early as Saturday evening.
Plan accordingly.
I am leaning heavily towards shutting down equipment but the pool ice may become annoying if we don't really warm up until possibly Monday or Tuesday of the following week....plus don't know that i love keeping pool uncirculated that long....the other option is praying my 9 year old single speed can run for 6+ days straight....
It should only be about 96 hours below freezing. I'm rolling the dice, freeze protection runs below 38 on my set up. Planning on turning on all water features and running full blast Saturday night through Wednesday morning, with tools out and ready in case I need to drain the pump quickly, and flip the breaker.
I also have a submersible pump and generator should I need to lower water levels if this goes longer and we don't maintain power.
I also have a submersible pump and generator should I need to lower water levels if this goes longer and we don't maintain power.
The main problems for me would be if power goes out or pump craps out while 1) sleeping or 2) at work and how quickly I could get it resolved.
This is what I plan to do.
Tonight's model trended way wetter for Texas starting Sunday evening.
Reiterates cold here as soon as Saturday night.
And repeating the winter weather fun next weekend. Skeptic in me says if the cold sticks around we aren't warming back up Wednesday / Thursday. Just staying cold.
Reiterates cold here as soon as Saturday night.
And repeating the winter weather fun next weekend. Skeptic in me says if the cold sticks around we aren't warming back up Wednesday / Thursday. Just staying cold.
FTAG 2000 said:
Tonight's model trended way wetter for Texas starting Sunday evening.
Reiterates cold here as soon as Saturday night.
And repeating the winter weather fun next weekend. Skeptic in me says if the cold sticks around we aren't warming back up Wednesday / Thursday. Just staying cold.
Looks like we're freezing all of sunday
I'm shutting down my system and draining this evening.
I don't want to be out in 9 degree weather at 2 AM trying to pull plugs when the power goes out.
If the surface freezes, so what? It froze over to wear I could walk on it in 2021 and it didn't hurt anything. And I doubt there'll be much of an algae bloom in this weather.
Don't forget to pull our your pool cleaner too. The reversing valve that floats near the surface can freeze and crack. Those cost about $30-$40.
EDIT - I also am running the pool heater right now. Water temp is 47 - water has a lot of thermal mass, so I'll get the pool warm headed into coldness Armageddon.
I don't want to be out in 9 degree weather at 2 AM trying to pull plugs when the power goes out.
If the surface freezes, so what? It froze over to wear I could walk on it in 2021 and it didn't hurt anything. And I doubt there'll be much of an algae bloom in this weather.
Don't forget to pull our your pool cleaner too. The reversing valve that floats near the surface can freeze and crack. Those cost about $30-$40.
EDIT - I also am running the pool heater right now. Water temp is 47 - water has a lot of thermal mass, so I'll get the pool warm headed into coldness Armageddon.
TAMUallen said:FTAG 2000 said:
Tonight's model trended way wetter for Texas starting Sunday evening.
Reiterates cold here as soon as Saturday night.
And repeating the winter weather fun next weekend. Skeptic in me says if the cold sticks around we aren't warming back up Wednesday / Thursday. Just staying cold.
Looks like we're freezing all of sunday
We are going below freezing sometime Saturday night and won't be above 32 again until Wednesday
The latest from NWS this morning has the stuff still trending eastern part of metroplex. However are you are saying ( and POWponder on weather YouTuber) have the precip trending west into the western counties of DFW?
Yes. Every model run is trending wetter and further west.
Latest precip model has us with 4-6 inches of white stuff on the ground come Tuesday (though this would mostly fall on Sunday night and Monday).
The temps aloft are pointing more to snow than ice, which is a good trend but no guarantee.
Latest precip model has us with 4-6 inches of white stuff on the ground come Tuesday (though this would mostly fall on Sunday night and Monday).
The temps aloft are pointing more to snow than ice, which is a good trend but no guarantee.
By the way, the way things are trending on the models, we won't get back above freezing until next Sunday or Monday.
It this all verifies:
Below freezing Saturday. Precip Sunday / Monday. Another arctic cold front with precip next Thursday or Friday.
They want to get us above freezing Wednesday or Thursday but if we get a layer of ice or snow on the ground for Monday through Wednesday I don't think we thaw out before that next front comes down.
Everyone should plan to be below freezing for 7-8 days starting Saturday. Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
It this all verifies:
Below freezing Saturday. Precip Sunday / Monday. Another arctic cold front with precip next Thursday or Friday.
They want to get us above freezing Wednesday or Thursday but if we get a layer of ice or snow on the ground for Monday through Wednesday I don't think we thaw out before that next front comes down.
Everyone should plan to be below freezing for 7-8 days starting Saturday. Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
FTAG 2000 said:
By the way, the way things are trending on the models, we won't get back above freezing until next Sunday or Monday.
It this all verifies:
Below freezing Saturday. Precip Sunday / Monday. Another arctic cold front with precip next Thursday or Friday.
They want to get us above freezing Wednesday or Thursday but if we get a layer of ice or snow on the ground for Monday through Wednesday I don't think we thaw out before that next front comes down.
Everyone should plan to be below freezing for 7-8 days starting Saturday. Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
So what you are saying is, fill the bathtub now and stock up on bleach... Got it
I am ready to move further south.....i hate this stuff....miserable....
FTAG 2000 said:
Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
Great. What are the chances they have actually done anything more than lipservice?
Absolute said:FTAG 2000 said:
Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
Great. What are the chances they have actually done anything more than lipservice?
About zero but this shouldn't ice the windmills and cut off natural gas either
Don't worry, ERCOT and power companies have been busy getting things ready for this exact scenario:Absolute said:FTAG 2000 said:
Really hope Ercot has their crap together.
Great. What are the chances they have actually done anything more than lipservice?
Texas power plants have no responsibility to provide electricity in emergencies, judges rule
Quote:
Almost three years since the deadly Texas blackout of 2021, a panel of judges from the First Court of Appeals in Houston has ruled that big power companies cannot be held liable for failure to provide electricity during the crisis.
Quote:
The state Supreme Court has already ruled that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's power grid operator, enjoys sovereign immunity and cannot be sued over the blackout.
This thread has got me nervous as hell. First freeze for this first time homeowner. Just assuming everything will break and I'll freeze to death once I get through all my firewood and furniture.
CNN is an enemy of the state and should be treated as such.
They are probably planning some shutdowns for maintenance tomorrow..... Who needs all those gas plants...
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