Ag CPA said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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We are already way colder today than forecast. Freezing rain on radar north and west of metroplex this morning.

Traditionally when this happens, it means our dfw weather talking heads are behind and it's going to surprise.

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This is what I don't get. I am confident that guys like Finfrock, Delkus and Rick Mitchell can see this coming as well; is it that they don't want to get out in front of the NWS?

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FOBW

Its a strange game for them. Over sell it and get called a fear monger or under sell it but drop a line "
that this could get worse, be prepared for the worst" without scaring everyone.


Then shrug on Tuesday and say "wow, what a surprise, heres what happened" then recant what you see on the storm2k forum today.

Wife is at grocery store in Plano. Said it is packed.

Just got back from store in frisco. Definitely much busier than most sundays.

Son of a *****. Was hoping not to have to cover plants again.

YouBet said:

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Son of a *****. Was hoping not to have to cover plants again.

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Hah same here. Went and did it right after church. Flowers covered. Faucets covered (freeze mister on garage wall with little insulation). Tarp over pool equipment to protect from freezing rain.

Don't think I will be dripping home faucets unless gets below 28/29 for an extended period.

Ag CPA said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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We are already way colder today than forecast. Freezing rain on radar north and west of metroplex this morning.

Traditionally when this happens, it means our dfw weather talking heads are behind and it's going to surprise.

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This is what I don't get. I am confident that guys like Finfrock, Delkus and Rick Mitchell can see this coming as well; is it that they don't want to get out in front of the NWS?

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I don't think it's about showing up the NWS or anything.

They all use the same computer generated models. Which are pretty good, usually especially with respect to wind, temps (in general, moreso non-winter side of things), and precipitation. Inside of 48 hours those models are pretty spot on.

The problem is the main two used - GFS and Euro, neither do well modeling cold air masses. And especially ones that come down the Rockies. This only happens maybe once or twice a year, so it's kind of shrugged off by the weather community in general.

But the weather nerds know that's a blindspot of the systems, but there's not a lot of incentive to spend the money to adjust the models for these once or twice a year events. If you go to Skywarn workshops or some of the other stuff the NWS puts on, it's been talked about, they all know it's an issue, but don't consider it a frequent enough event to try to go back and really adjust the models.

When they miss and it's just colder than expected, no big deal. It's when the cold lines up with precip like this is shaping up that is when we have problems. Keep in mind the last time the models missed bad was Snowmageddon in 2020.

Not saying that will happen this week, just that when the models miss on cold + precip, it's usually pretty bad and I'd argue worthy of trying to fix the models as these are the type of high end events that usually have significant impact to the public (relatively speaking).

That's what I'm getting at. Weather is their life; I would imagine that they also understand the limitations of the GFS and Euro models and are into the same stuff the weather nerds you described are.

This was a dramatic change from even this morning. Appreciate everyone prior posting.

Essentially may not get above freezing Monday and Tuesday. Glaze of ice on Monday afternoon/evening, 0.10" of ice on Tuesday. Warms up enough on Wednesday. Not as bad as previous years, but bad enough to potentially shut down traffic here on Tuesday all day and Wednesday morning.

https://www.wfaa.com/article/weather/another-round-of-wintry-weather-possible-in-north-texas/287-3474b11d-62f6-4334-9de4-be4993f366ef

This is really interesting. Appears some areas might be impacted more than others. Weather underground still showing 34 as high where I am next couple days with lows at 31 and 32. Basically 48 hours right at that freezing mark.

Showing next 3 nights going just under 30. Hopefully doesn't dip to mid 20s.

Tuesday looks to barely sneak above freezing.

Blah.

Edit: again with wrong emoji on app.

You need to wait on tonight's model runs (check tomorrow morning). The stuff being out out today still isn't modeled well on temps. They are running 5-7 degrees high compared to observed temps.

Pretty big miss by our local teams if this is true. Big difference between 25 low / 30 high versus 30 low / 34 high.

Prosper is down to 32 already. They are still trying to warm us up to 38 later. Come on guys your model runs are junk.

We just dipped below freezing NW of DFW airport, and they're still saying we'll warm up to 36-37. Pretty comical.

I'm thinking my Tuesday travel plans are in jeopardy.

Fox4 just said prepare for icy roads through Wednesday. Won't see above freezing temps until that afternoon.

I am driving home from Amarillo tomorrow morning - here's hoping I don't die.

Coates said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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The models are all coming into agreement on heavy precipitation from Monday evening through Thursday, with Tuesday staying below freezing the whole day.

The NWS seems slow to respond so far with their forecast. Feel like this is going to catch folks by surprise if they don't update soon (assuming models verify).

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I'm sure people will freak out as usual over a few ice patches on bridges.

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Grocery stores were packed today/tonight, some even cancelling pickup orders. Good work Karens, never change!

FTAG 2000 said:

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Prosper is down to 32 already. They are still trying to warm us up to 38 later. Come on guys your model runs are junk.

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My model runs? I don't have any model runs.

riverrataggie said:

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FTAG 2000 said:

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Prosper is down to 32 already. They are still trying to warm us up to 38 later. Come on guys your model runs are junk.

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My model runs? I don't have any model runs.

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Was talking about the weather service who had us warming up this evening for some stupid reason.

Thread actually explained why and thanks to the fellas here and over at storm2k for explaining it.

Latest models put DFW below freezing until noon Thursday.

Well crap, should I plan on taking the DART from DFW on Tuesday? Don't want to get gouged on uber

TxAG#2011 said:

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Well crap, should I plan on taking the DART from DFW on Tuesday? Don't want to get gouged on uber

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DART rail is the last thing I would personally get on in an ice event. It feels like they stop the trains when they have ice on the lines.

Some school districts west of DFW already closed today

Most of the forecasts for East Dallas still only showing 30 as low. My pool shows it didn't get below 30 last either. Only thing really is they are saying 33 high today, 32 high tomorrow. Then Wednesday high 30's.

They are hanging on as much as they can.

The upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning is troubling. I can drive with the best of them in most winter conditions but I don't jack with ice.

This.

I am almost to work now but will keep a close eye and leave as soon as I start getting that feeling things are about to turn quick. My guess is I am home by noon/1pm.

I20 between 377 and McCart was already a **** show about an hour ago with multiple wrecks involving semis.

T&P for those commuting.

Look at the traffic and the disparity between Fort Worth and Dallas right now. There is definitely a line that is drawn right through the metroplex.

Appreciate y'all talking about this over the weekend. Would have had no idea that I'd be looking at possibly not wanting to hit the roads this morning. Looks like the west side of town is not worth the risk

Im having trouble seeing what the problem is.

I'm astounded that FWISD isn't closed for today.

planoaggie123 said:

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This.

I am almost to work now but will keep a close eye and leave as soon as I start getting that feeling things are about to turn quick. My guess is I am home by noon/1pm.

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May as well turn around and go home. NWS forecast is still a bust. If we are already having freezing drizzle this morning, only going to get worse from here.

I live in Rockwall County. Miles of bridges over LRH on 30 and 66. My post about an hour ago.

"Somebody just cut to the chase and get in an accident so it can be shut down."

Less than 45 minutes later from another post....

"They did."

Yesterday said:

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Im having trouble seeing what the problem is.

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Depends on where you live in the metroplex. West sucks, east seems fine. At least until tonight when it all goes to ****