geez. Seems harsh considering the audience reception doesn't seem that bad on it.

‘THE FLASH’ is tracking to earn $14M at its second domestic box office weekend, a 75% drop compared to last weekend.

This is the highest drop EVER for a superhero movie at the domestic box office.

Read our review: https://t.co/CK44txNEXD pic.twitter.com/V4io4zWb3n

— The Hollywood Handle (@hollywoodhandle) June 24, 2023

Could it partially be due to Ezra Miller? He never screamed Flash to me. Doesn't seem like a strong lead in general.

I just remember him from the Perks of Being A Wallflower movie. If anyone else has seen that movie (which was a popular one), then they will definitely "typecast" him a certain way that is decidedly un-Flash.

While this year's overall domestic box office is up nearly 20% versus 2022, the summer box office is down slightly. More competition in 2023, and nothing with the theatrical afterburners of TOP GUN: MAVERICK. pic.twitter.com/dg54lhb8HB

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) June 27, 2023

1. GotG3 ($351M)
2. SPIDER-MAN ($316M)
3. LITTLE MERMAID ($270M)
4. FAST X ($144M)
5. TRANSFORMERS ($123M)

MAVERICK and DS2 were both above $400M+ at this point, while MINIONS 2 and ELVIS would jump into the Top 5 the week after.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) June 27, 2023

One thing that is the same...IP heavyweights. All of them. Summer is for sequels. Let's hope BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER can adjust that narrative a bit.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) June 27, 2023

As I've been saying for a while, but am even more confident in now, I think Barbie is going to be massive. Like, a top three box office hit of the summer. And IMO, Oppenheimer is going to do better than most are anticipating as well. So many dads and olds are going to show up for it, in addition to the usual Nolan crowd. Then Mission: Impossible will of course kill too, likely coming in as either the first or second highest earner of the summer. In other words, July will save the summer, and hopefully hold that overall 20% box office improvement over 2022, which is more than many were expecting.

Seems clear at this point that people are tired of both superhero movies and the Pixar formula. Since that has been about 90% of Hollywood output for the last decade it may be a bumpy ride while the studios course correct. With video games being a much bigger industry than movies at this point I also predict a lot of video game adaptations (most which will flop) as they try to cash in there.

I get the nuance - but is Barbie not an IP heavyweight?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I think that's oversimplying things. GOTG3 was pretty damn good and I think it underperformed what most people were expecting.

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It's made $831M worldwide so far and is the second highest grossing movie of the year. People showed up. Could it have made more? Sure. But it's pretty damn close to GOTG2's $863M worldwide total, and I would say the difference is just about proportional to their respective RT scores, with GOTG2 at 85% and GOTG3 at 81%.

I think if you'd asked most pundits a year ago, they'd have said it was a guaranteed $1B movie. (Similarly for Wakanda Forever.)

And grossed less than 2 domestically in spite of the upwards trajectory of the series.

I think the overall fatigue in the superhero genre was a big factor here, much more so than quality.

Also, audience scores:
GOTG 2: 87%, 7.6 IMDb
GOTG 3: 94%, 8.2 IMDb

Audiences at large preferred the third.

I don't know what you mean by "upwards trajectory" of the series when it clearly wasn't reviewed quite as well as the second movie. I also think Marvel fatigue in general played a part, because the Marvel movies have mostly sucked as of late. Had the movies been good, the momentum/interest would have been there. My overall point is simply that people are clearly showing up in droves for the good blockbusters and aren't showing up for the bad ones, genre be damned. There just happen to be way more bad superhero movies as of late, with Marvel and DC both in creative funks (save for a few exceptions).

I meant the box office.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Also, audience scores:
GOTG 2: 87%, 7.6 IMDb
GOTG 3: 94%, 8.2 IMDb

Audiences at large preferred the third.

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I'm sorry, we've had this discussion before, but IMBd audience rankings are about the least trustworthy thing around. I don't know why you always give them so much credence, when I don't know a single other person, either in or out of the business, who pays any attention to those.

Ok, but what else would you base your criteria on for measuring how audiences felt about a movie? Both are higher for 3. Most folks that reviewed it on here also liked 3 more than 2.

Just because the critics score was a few points higher for 2 doesn't mean general audiences didn't like it more. Just showing that there was no significant drop in quality for that specific movie, that would affect the drop in box office.

Hence why I think the Marvel/superhero fatigue is mainly to blame.

Have no idea how Cinemascores are done or how legitimate they are, but all three Guardians movies scored an A.

However, I do think we're on the same page in terms of bad movies being the reason for the superhero fatigue. I think two solid years of mediocre superhero movies has finally taken its toll on the rest of the genre. And now even the good ones have a much lower ceiling.

The Marvels is in serious trouble. If Porkchop ever comes back, he's definitely losing that bet...

I definitely got the impression on this board that 3 wasn't quite liked as much as 2 or 1. I thought there were some rave reviews for sure, but also a lot of reactions that felt it was darker than the last two, wasn't as funny, wasn't as appropriate for kids, the ending was forced, etc. Personally, 1 and 2 are in rarified air for me, while 3 was definitely a step below.

Either way, we're splitting hairs at this point. People still showed up for it, they showed up for No Way Home, for The Batman, etc. They're showing up for the good ones and aren't showing up for the bad ones. They're simply being more selective in the genre now. What they've lost interest in is tolerating the bad ones, at a time when Hollywood is making more bad superhero movies than ever (or, rather, the bad to good ratio is higher than it's ever been, since 2008). Should Hollywood get its act together with Fantastic Four, the X-Men reboot, Superman: Legacy, etc, the audience will be there, while The Batman Part II will likely be a massive hit, as will the next Spider-Man, and so on.

Agree with you there for sure.

I think Barbie is hitting mainstream stride right now with their marketing based on what I am seeing. If the movie delivers it'll be a box office hit. Lack of awareness or marketing won't be an issue for it.

Much might change from now until JUL 21, but first industry’s early projections for #Barbie and #Oppenheimer at domestic #BoxOffice are out, with #MargotRobbie projected for a 70M-80M 3-day weekend despite of no premium screens, while #ChristopherNolan eyes a 40M-50M opening. pic.twitter.com/c1VPpIDfa6

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) June 29, 2023

call me crazy but all these franchise flops throughout this year so far (Shazam, Flash, Ant-Man, Transformers, Indy) have me extremely optimistic about cinema. the safe brand-recognition bets studios were banking on are all losing out to stuff with passion and good word-of-mouth

— Houston Coley (@artwithinpod) June 30, 2023

Indy has flopped?

Kind of a dumb tweet. The top 10 is comprised entirely of comic book movies, sequels, and big IP. (Mario)

I guess his point might be that there's more midsize hits than during COVID (Scream 6, M3gan), but still doesn't square with that tweet.

I think it's two parts...

1) By and large, the franchise movies that people actually want to see (John Wick, Across the Spider-Verse, GOTG3, etc) are excelling, while the franchise movies that feel more motivated by studio/shareholder interest (Flash, Transformers, Indiana Jones, etc) are failing. Which hasn't always been the case. It's as if audiences are becoming more savvy and less tolerant of inorganic cash grabs.

2) Speaking more broadly, factoring in the original/indie space (with things like Asteroid City), in general, the good movies are overperforming and the bad movies are underperforming, which excites people like myself because it gives us a glimmer of hope that studios will start either greenlighting more original fare, or take the necessary time to get the development right when it comes to franchise fare.

BREAKING! “INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY” will open with around $60 MILLION DOMESTIC after making $24 MILLION on opening day (including $7.2m in Thursday previews) — that’s on the lower end of projections for a tentpole movie that cost $295 MIL to make. WHAT HAPPENED? pic.twitter.com/rdy943FoDf

— Scott Mantz 🖖 (@MovieMantz) July 1, 2023

That's pretty close to Fallout numbers. That went on to make nearly $800M global. There's still hope.

On the bright side, I think this was pretty much meant to end the franchise anyway, so nothing really lost if it underperforms.

Nothing really lost except hundreds of millions of dollars for a company that is currently laying off thousands of people. Fallout had legs because it was a great movie that had massive amounts of enthusiasm behind it. While Indy will likely fall off a cliff next weekend.

Obviously meant for us as viewers, but you knew that.

We've been talking about the industry/studios and what this series of bombs means for the kinds of movies they may or may not continue to make. So, no, I didn't "know that" when you suddenly turned this into a "viewers" only convo.