***** The Box Office Thread *****

88,528 Views | 1181 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by The Porkchop Express
The Porkchop Express
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Another couple of million for Avatar 2 has it up to $531.8 million domestic, meaning it will pass Rogue One for 15th all-time on Friday, and likely The Dark Knight for 14th as well.

By the end of the holiday weekend, it will be in 13th, throwing Simba off the cliff at $543 million.

Black Panther 2 is now at $446.9 million and will pass the Dark Knight Rises this weekend. I would expect a decent surge by it on MLK weekend as well.

Not sure it has the legs to make it to Age of Ultron at $459 million. Just depends on what day they shuffle it to Disney Plus.



Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Looking at worldwide, it'll be interesting to see if it can pass No Way Home (1.916B) this weekend to move into the #6 spot.

It's got 160M to go, but last weekend it jumped from 1.5B to 1.7B very quickly.

After that, it'll need another 150M to jump both Infinity War and TFA to climb to #4. That'll probably happen by about weekend #7, two weeks from now.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Early weekend numbers have Avatar at $27M for the 3-day and $35M for the 4-day holiday.

The $27M three-day puts it well ahead of NWH's $20.1M and below Maverick's $29.6M in their fifth weekends.

M3gan also holding strong for $21M for the holiday weekend.
The Porkchop Express
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Brian Earl Spilner said:



M3gan also holding strong for $21M for the holiday weekend.
Just as Dr. King would have wanted.
Faustus
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You People was bumped a couple of weeks out of similar concern.

Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express
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Way of Water made an estimated $7 million on Friday to reach $538 m domestic, moving past Rogue One and The Dark Knight on the all-time domestic list. It should pass The lion King today for 13th all-time domestically.

M3GAN was a strong second at $4.85 million. Whatever Tom Hanks is doing was third with $.05 million and Puss n Boots took 4th at 3.03 million to reach just shy of $96 million on its unlikely quest for $100 million.

Disney cut the # of theaters for Wakanda Forever in half as it heads for digital in 2 weeks. It dropped down to 1,910 theaters and made just $524,000, but it should have the legs to get past The Dark Knight RIses by the end of the weekend for 24th place. Including No Way Home, which is technically a Sony release, by the end of the weekend Marvel movies will have spots: 2,3,6,7,10,23 and 24 in the all-time domestic list.

Newcomer House Party debuted with $1.4 million in a limited release of 1,400 theaters.

Avatar 2 trails No Way Home by $148 million for 6th on the all-time global list.

The Porkchop Express
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Back into double digits on both Saturday and Sunday sent Avatar 2 soaring into the top 13 movies of all time domestic.It made $13.8 million on Saturday and $10.3 million on Sunday to reach $562.9 million all-time.

It's now 13th all time domestic and trails Incredibles 2 by about $45 million for 12th. It's $60 million away from the Top 10, #10 currently held by Avengers ($623 million). That's a $31 million weekend, ahead of projections for $27 million, with most of the US also having Monday off.

not all the international #s are out yet today, so will update later on those.

Black Panther 2 pushed past The Dark Night Rises for 24th all time domestic at $449 million and change.

House Party, which is only in 1,400 theaters for some reason, put up strong #s with $3.9 million for its first 3 days out.

Puss in Boots 2 continued its unlikely surge, making a combined $13.4 million this weekend, just 1% lower than last weekend, and reaching $106.4 million in the process. Its opening day weekend estimates had it making $39 million at this point in its run.

M3GAN made $7.4 million on Saturday and $5.6 million on Sunday to break $50 million on its 10th day of release. Not bad at all for a horror flick rated R.

I am heart broken to say that it appears Black Adam has left all theaters.




Brian Earl Spilner
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That $31M is just ahead of Maverick's $29.6M fifth weekend. Considering that it had been pacing below it midweek, that's a great weekend hold.

It's also 50% higher than NWH's $20M, which was the main comp.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Looking at worldwide, it'll be interesting to see if it can pass No Way Home (1.916B) this weekend to move into the #6 spot.

It's got 160M to go, but last weekend it jumped from 1.5B to 1.7B very quickly.

After that, it'll need another 150M to jump both Infinity War and TFA to climb to #4. That'll probably happen by about weekend #7, two weeks from now.


Didn't quite hit 1.9B, but came very close.

The estimated global cume through Sunday is $1.894B. It still ranks as the No. 7 biggest movie of all time. Ahead of it at No. 6 is Spider-Man: No Way Home with $1.921B, so it should overtake that soon.
Brian Earl Spilner
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M3gan is PG-13. They edited it down to that after the trailers became popular on TikTok. Smart move I would say.
Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express said:

The downfall of Avatar 2 is coming on January 13, 2023.




batchuser
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

The Porkchop Express said:

The downfall of Avatar 2 is coming on January 13, 2023.







Not paying $15 for 90 minutes of jokes about white people. It will be the white mans fault if it fails I'm sure.
TCTTS
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I'd be more worried about how thin your skin is, not who's making harmless jokes about what color it is.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express
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batchuser said:




Not paying $15 for 90 minutes of jokes about white people. It will be the white mans fault if it fails I'm sure.
It's 101 minutes long and you can get a matinee for $10.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Avatar once again beating out the weekend estimates.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Now stands at 1.903B, and should be overtaking NWH within a couple days.
The Porkchop Express
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The Numbers gives Avatar 2 an estimated $8.2 million for Monday, putting it up to $572.4 million domestic.

Puss n Boots 2 jumps back up to second on the school holiday with an impressive $4.65 million to hit $112 million on its run.

M3GAN drops to third at $3.46 million and has made $60 million in 11 days.

Domestically, Avatar first 4 weeks have been $197.5m, $160.6m, $113.6 m and now $60.0 million. A 47% dropoff for the week of Jan 6-13, but you expect that post-holidays.

Still making big chunks of money every day, but we're out of holiday weekends untl President's Day when Ant-Man comes out.

I don't know how to predict how much higher it will go. I guess it depends on how long the parent company wants to keep it in the theaters. Obviously all of the most recent entries in the record books - No Way Home and Maverick especially, have stayed in theaters a really long time. Maverick was out for 29 weeks and was in 3,000+ theaters until Week 16. No Way Home in at least 1,000 theaters for 17 weeks, then came back last September and made another $7 million in a few weeks.

If Avatar 2 stays in wide release for another 3 months, it would seem that it would easily get past BP and Maverick in the low $700s and be on par with its original at $785 million and come close to No Way Home at ($814 million)

Brian Earl Spilner
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I think the fact that it's a premium format heavy movie, and it will be losing the majority of those to Ant-Man, makes it a little more unpredictable. But I think anywhere between $650-700M is a reasonable prediction at this point.

However, if Ant-Man's dropoff is huge in weekend #2, I think theaters start splitting those premium theaters between Ant-Man and Avatar.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Interesting that it's Disney vs Disney though. You have to wonder if they don't regret giving it such a short* runway for those premium theaters in retrospect.

*Short in mega blockbuster terms of course.
TCTTS
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TCTTS
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So encouraging to see this kind of box office action in January, across the spectrum.
TexAg1822
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I'm planning on going to see Plane tomorrow after work. Seems to be off to a solid start domestically
Brian Earl Spilner
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Avatar showing very strong legs in China. And keep in mind, the country is being ravaged by COVID, so these numbers are way lower than they would've been normally. (Currently at ~$225M.)



I have zero doubt that Avatar 3 hits anywhere between $300-$500M in China, once COVID is a long and distant memory.
Brian Earl Spilner
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In Marvel news...

The Porkchop Express
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Zootopia?
Brian Earl Spilner
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I mean, Incredibles 2 is on our list. Every country has some random ones.
The Porkchop Express
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Having seen Zoootopia several times iwth the kids, the idea of it in Chinese just sounds hilarious.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Spidey goes down.



The Porkchop Express
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I want a Netflix series on who makes the graphics for these Tweets. I'm also going ahead and assuming you are actually Luiz Fernando, just like I assume TCTTS is Forty from "You" Season 2.

Hwy30East
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I saw A Man Called Otto yesterday. We really enjoyed it, and will probably go see it again with some other family members.
TCTTS
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AG
Good to hear. My parents loved it too. Will try and check it out soon.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Biggest fifth weekends of all time:

1. Avatar - $42.8M
2. Avatar 2 - $32.5M
3. Titanic - $30M
 
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