***** The Box Office Thread *****

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Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Beating Sonic 2 in 5 days is just ridiculous.

I knew it would be the highest grossing VG movie but got dang.
The Porkchop Express
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The Porkchop Express said:


As of Friday, April 7

1. Ant-Man 3: $212.5 m
2. Creed III: $150.4 m - hasn't reported in yet for Friday
3. John Wick IV: $137.2 m
4. The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $113.2 m
5. Scream VI: $101.7 m
6. M3GAN: $95.0 m
7. Cocaine Bear: $64.0 m
8. Shazam 2: $55.6 m
9. D&D: Honor Among Thieves: $52.6 m
10. Jesus Revolution: $51.3 m
11. 80 for Brady: $39.3 m
12. Knock at the Cabin: $35.4 m
13. Missing: $32.5 m
14. Plane: $32.1 m
15. 65: $31.2 m
As of Sunday, April 9, shaved this down to the top 10 now that Mario has pulled its blitzkrieg.

1. Ant-Man 3: $212.5 m - either hasn't reported Saturday and Sunday or closed on Friday.
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $204.6 m
3. Creed III: $153.3 m
4. John Wick IV: $147.0 m
5. Scream VI: $103.8 m
6. M3GAN: $95.0 m
7. Cocaine Bear: $64.0 m
8. D&D: Honor Among Thieves: $62.3 m
9. Shazam 2: $56.6 m
10. Jesus Revolution: $51.7 m

So Mario will be the new #1 after the close of business on Monday for the year.
And has at least 3 weeks before it gets challenged in any of it's major markets.

The Judy Blume movie conversion "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret" will sap some of its strength for families on April 28. Return of the Jedi comes back to theaters for a week then too, but nobody knows how many theaters yet.

So it will be smooth sailing until Chris Pratt dethrones Chris Pratt with Guardians of Galaxy 3 on May 5.

After that you've got Fast X on May 19 and then the heavy-hitters start lining up. Little Mermaid on May 26, Across the Spider-Verse on June 2, Transformers 57 on June 9, The Flash on June 16, Indiana Jones on May 30.

July gets you MI: DR Part 1, Barbie, Oppenheimer
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Brian Earl Spilner
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I think Ant-Man probably sold about 4 tickets Saturday and Sunday.
TXAG 05
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Return of Jedi is coming back to the theaters? Original version or crappy special edition?
The Porkchop Express
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Some other Mario #s to chew on as we go ahead.

It's already 42nd on the all-time animated movie chart (domestic). That hill gets really steep once you get past $300 million. It will need to make $368 million to reach the top 10, which seems very doable. Top 5 is $434 million.

Overall, it's 217th domestic at the box office, and will just surge up by dozens and dozens of spots for the next few weeks. Getting into the top 100 = $293 million and change, Top 50 is $377 million, Top 25 is $448 million. Will be really fun to see where it winds up.

Take into account that since November 2021, we've had 4 movies join the top 25 and three of those wind up in the top 7


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Brian Earl Spilner
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I'm currently tracking the daily gross on The Numbers in a chart with Shrek 2 and Minions: Rise of Gru.

Shrek 2 had insane legs, but Minions had probably less legs than Mario will have.

If you split the difference between the two to predict Mario's legs, it would finish its domestic run ~$485M.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Shrek-2/Minions-The-Rise-of-Gru-(2021)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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A list of records broken by Super Mario Bros so far.

Domestic:
  • Highest-grossing debut of 2023, surpassing "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" at $106.1 million
  • Biggest five-day (Wednesday-Sunday) opening of all-time, overtaking 2009's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" at $200 million. (Note: This stat is specifically for movies that opened on a Wednesday.)
  • Highest-grossing debut for Illumination, beating 2015's "Minions" and its three-day opening weekend of $115.7 million
  • Second-biggest debut ever for an animated movie, outpacing 2016's "Finding Dory" and its three-day opening weekend of $135.1 million and following "Incredibles 2" and its three-day debut of $183 million
  • Highest-grossing debut for a video game adaptation, outranking 2022's "Sonic the Hedgehog 2" at $72.1 million


International:
  • Biggest opening of 2023, ahead of "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" at $117.1 million
  • Second-biggest animated opening of all-time, behind "Frozen 2" at $228.2 million
  • Biggest Illumination opening of all-time
  • Biggest video game opening of all-time

Global:
  • Biggest opening of 2023, bringing down "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" at $225.3 million
  • Highest Illumination opening of all-time, passing 2013's "Despicable Me 2" at $208 million
  • Biggest video game opening of all-time, eclipsing 2016's "Warcraft" at $210 million
  • Highest animated opening weekend ever for Imax with $21.6 million
The Porkchop Express
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It looks like Marvel straight yanked Quantumania out of theaters after Friday. it's 3 days later and no box office #s from Saturday or Sunday, meaning it only made it 50 days in theaters.

They dropped it to 1,915 theaters on March 24, and it still made $1.112 million on that Saturday. However Jonathan Majors got arrested on March 26, and even accounting for fewer theaters, its numbers dive bombed.

The day that Super Mario Bros. opened last Wednesday, Antman made $45,041 at the box office after making $180,920 the day before, and $227,455 a week previous.

The previous Marvel films were Black Panther 2, Thor 4, and Dr. Strange 2

Black Panther 2 made $453m and was in the theaters for 126 days.
Dr. Strange 2 made $411m and was in the theaters for 98 days
Thor 4 made $343m and was in the theaters for 98 days.



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Brian Earl Spilner
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$16M estimate for Mario on Monday. Ahead of Shrek 2's $11M and right on par with Minions 2.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Make that $20M.

Deadline now saying it could get to $500M-600M domestic.
The Porkchop Express
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18 moves in theaters total on Monday made $26 million combined. Mario accounted for $20 million of that.
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The Porkchop Express
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As of Monday, April 10, the culmination of an incredible 6 days.

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $224.7 m
2. Ant-Man 3: $212.7 m - not dead, just drastically dropped its # of theaters to 520.
3. Creed III: $153.5 m
4. John Wick IV: $148.5 m
5. Scream VI: $104.4 m
6. M3GAN: $95.0 m
7. Cocaine Bear: $64.0 m
8. D&D: Honor Among Thieves: $63.2 m
9. Shazam 2: $56.7 m
10. Jesus Revolution: $51.7 m
MY post breakdown:
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The Porkchop Express
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$15.459 million for Mario on a typical Tuesday, no holidays, no kids out of school, nothing. Baller money. Up to 240 million.

The Damon/Affleck film AIR took over #2 for the day with $1.664 million. It made more on Tuesday than it did on Monday when most people were off work, probably because the grownups had to take the kids to see Mario on Monday.

John Wick 4 and D&D also both broke $1 million on the day. Jon Wick is closing in on Creed III for the #3 spot of 2023, it's about $4 million behind. John Wick 3 made $171 million so it will get there eventually I'm assuming.

D&D surpassed Cocaine Bear for #6 on the year. It's made $64 million in 12 days of release.

Mario is now #30 all-time for animated movies domestic. It's up to 151st all-time domestic.


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The Porkchop Express
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$10.757 million for Mario on a Wednesday. That short run time continues to pay off. Up to $250.958 million so far. Only 2 other movies - Air and D&D - made more than $1 million on Wednesday.

Mario is up to 27th all-time domestic and 138th all-time domestic overall.
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The Porkchop Express
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Super Mario Bros made $9.865 million on Thursday to reach $260.8m in its 9th day of release.
It should be a huge second weekend for Mario. It's up to 127th all-time domestic, just behind the original Incredibles. At the rate it's been chewing up cash on the weekend, it's a mortal lock to explode past $300 million this weekend and into the top 100 films of all time (domestic). It's at 24th all-time for digital animation movies. It will be up into the top 16 once it breaks $300 m


Returning to screens for the first time in 20 years on Thursday was the 53-hour version of Return of the King, which racked up $1.176 million across 1,107 theaters. It finished second, just ahead of John Wick 4 and AIR.

Return of the King was in 50th place on the all-time domestic list. Depending on how long it is out for, it could move up quite a bit. It will pass Revenge of the Sith, Finding Nemo and HP & the Deathly Hallows Part II all on Friday if it can make $2 million. After that is GOTG 2 at $389.8 million.

Renfield, with Nicholas "The Beast" Houlte and Nic Cage basically playing himself made $900,000 in Thursday night previews.

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Brian Earl Spilner
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$72M+ second weekend for Mario. Almost exactly what Shrek 2 did and nearly $30M ahead of Minions 2.

If it were to leg out exactly like Shrek 2 from here it's looking at $535M domestic.

The floor (Minions 2) puts it at $460M.

My prediction is right around $500M.
The Porkchop Express
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That estimate seems way low on the weekend. Whoever is doing these predictions should have learned their lesson on Avatar 2
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The Porkchop Express
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$22.6 million for Super Mario on Friday pushes it up to $283.4 million in 10 days. Mario is up to 19th all-time in animated movies, passing the Grinch from 2018. If it makes another $50 million this weekend as estimated, it will be just shy of the Top 15 in this category.

On the all-time domestic list it is 112th, a couple of million behind Home Alone.

Newcomers The Pope's Exorcist ($3.465 m) and Renfield ($3.140 m) take 2nd and 3rd with their combined Thursday night / Friday openings.

Renfield exceeds Nic Cage's opening in "The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent" from 2022 by about $500,000 on opening day, making this his biggest live-action Opening Day take in a film where's one of the 2 main actors since Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance came out in 2012. That's pretty awesome. I feel like Nic Cage has another Oscar in him somewhere once someone wants to take a chance and put him back in a real main stream film.

John Wick 4 is less than $1 million from surpassing Creed 3 on the year..

This update is incomplete without numbers from Creed 3 and the re-release of ROTK.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express said:

That estimate seems way low on the weekend. Whoever is doing these predictions should have learned their lesson on Avatar 2


Yup. Already upped to $80M.
Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express
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The Numbers reports Mario throwing down $39.15 million on Saturday after a $22.65 million Friday and estimates a $25.2 million Sunday for a stunning $87 million weekend.

It has exploded up to $347.8 million total . That puts it up to 14th all-time animated, soaring past Monsters Inc., Up, Shrek the Third, the original Minions and Zootopia int he past two days.

On the all-time domestic chart, it has shot into the Top 100 and finishes Sunday at #65. It is just $32 million away from the Top 50. It's also rapidly moving up Universal's all-time biggest hits. It's already 10th on that list and legitimately should finish no less than second. ET made $439 million all-time. Jurassic World is Universal's #1 at $652 million.

The $87 million weekend is the third biggest weekend of the year for 2023, trailing Mario's $146 million opening weekend and Ant-Man's $106 million.

John Wick 4 officially passed Creed III for #4 on the year, up to $160 million.


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The Porkchop Express
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

The Porkchop Express said:

That estimate seems way low on the weekend. Whoever is doing these predictions should have learned their lesson on Avatar 2


Yup. Already upped to $80M.
why do they even bother?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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John Wick holding up nicely.

Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

The Porkchop Express said:

That estimate seems way low on the weekend. Whoever is doing these predictions should have learned their lesson on Avatar 2


Yup. Already upped to $80M.
why do they even bother?


Wow. Nobody can keep up. Watch them do the same thing again next weekend.



Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

$72M+ second weekend for Mario. Almost exactly what Shrek 2 did and nearly $30M ahead of Minions 2.

If it were to leg out exactly like Shrek 2 from here it's looking at $535M domestic.

The floor (Minions 2) puts it at $460M.

My prediction is right around $500M.


Yeah, it's gonna beat Shrek 2 and get closer to Frozen 2 legs. Gonna say $550M+ now.
TCTTS
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The Porkchop Express
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They're off, it's $87m
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TCTTS
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Was posting it more for their comprehensive breakdown for rest of the field.
The Porkchop Express
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The Sunday estimates were way off for Mario. It actually made $30.4 million to cap a $92.4 million second weekend.

Through Sunday it's up to 62nd all-time at $353 million.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Incredibles 2 numbers might be in play.
The Porkchop Express
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With that short run time you can see theaters leaving a screen or 2 just all summer long for Mario; no reason not to. School lets out for the kids in 5 weeks and you've got Memorial Day weekend in the mix right after it. It's so light and likable and colorful, you can take any age kid to see it and there are zero concerns about scary stuff. Bowser might scare a young kid for the first 60 seconds he's on screen, but then it goes into the snowball fight with the penguins and his song about Peach and it's over.

I think it's going to be out the entire summer and go on a run like Maverick where it just keeps churning out numbers daily and weekly. At this point I think it approaches the top 10 all-time. #10 is currently Jurassic World at $653 million domestic.
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The Porkchop Express
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$5.8 million Monday for Super Mario yesterday. No other movie made more than $730,000.

Mario up to 60th all-time at $358.9 million. It passed Aladdin and Inside Out on Monday.

Animation wise, it's $10 million behind Despicable Me 2 and The Secret LIfe of Pets and $11 million behind MInions 2.
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The Porkchop Express
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$7.4 million for Mario on Tuesday, again the only movie to make more than $1 million on the day.

It's up to $366.4 million now, 58th all time, jumping The Jungle Book and Deadpool yesterday.

It's up to 13th all-time for animated domestic box office. It will crack the top 10 with its Wednesday numbers and be 9th by the start of the weekend.

It made $92 million last weekend. If it makes even half of that this weekend, it will be near cracking the top 5 for domestic animated. Toy Story 4: Woody Acts Like a Dick is 5th at $434 million.
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