***** The Box Office Thread *****

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TCTTS
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1:42p, 6/9/24
AG





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veryfuller
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In reply to TCTTS • 2:17p, 6/9/24
Staff
AG
Not to be a nay sayer….but this is one movie performing slightly better than expectations. I mean I know it's R rated, but that's still $6 million less than Bad Boys For Life's opening, and that doesn't include inflation adjustments.

Also, the BO will again fail to make it across $100 million.

So while this can be considered a hit for Sony, this is far from good news for theaters and the movie industry as a whole. Those tweets taking a victory lap seem way too premature. If this summer keeps having $50 million dollar "hit" opening weekends like this, there are going to be a lot more theaters closing before next summer rolls around and turns the tide (if it even does).
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TCTTS
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In reply to veryfuller • 2:40p, 6/9/24
AG
After last month, and all the sky-is-falling hysteria, combined with all the can-Will-Smith-still-deliver think pieces as of late, beating projections in this manner is absolutely a win. Also, you frame it as if $6 million less than the last one is a bad thing. That's huge! Especially for the fourth movie in the franchise, when many assumed there would be fatigue there, after all the Will Smith controversy, etc.

A number of people were worried last month was the beginning of a very grim trend. And now pundits are simply celebrating that it seems to have instead been an anomaly. Between this weekend, Inside Out 2 looking to do crazy numbers next weekend, and then A Quiet Place: Day One already tracking well for the weekend after that, June is poised to bounce back in a big way, something that has been predicted/assumed for a while now, but obviously wasn't a given. And now that this weekend over-shot those hunches, it simply seems to serve as confirmation. That's really all this is about.
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veryfuller
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2:58p, 6/9/24
Staff
AG
I get that. I just think there are two things at play. Movie theaters are in serious trouble even if studios may not be right now.

There are of course going to be hit movies, but if the total BO continues to drag like this, then theaters aren't going to be able to keep afloat. It feels like they are conflating the two instead of being acknowledging this as a big win for Sony but not really movie theaters since overall BO this weekend was still middling to low. That was my point.
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TCTTS
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In reply to veryfuller • 3:32p, 6/9/24
AG
SOME movie theaters are in serious trouble.

SOME theaters aren't going to be able to stay afloat.

Otherwise, yes, attendance is down, but as I noted in another thread recently...

Quote:
The primary culprit seems to be fewer movies currently in theaters post-pandemic... Fewer movies makes it feel like people are going to the theater less - and they are - but the good news is attendance post-pandemic has been proportional to the amount of movies being released. In other words, attendance-per-movie hasn't dropped, but the lower volume of movies, the budget of those movies, and of course inflation, is what has caused ticket prices to rise. Thus, because not enough movies - and good ones at that - are being released, the habit of going to the movies as frequently has dropped as well.

That said, 2025 boasts a ridiculously robust movie slate, and will be the first year since 2019 to feel "normal" again in terms of volume and choice. Couple that return with the already-in-motion mandate of lower budgets all around, and hopefully lower ticket prices eventually return, and attendance grows. We'll of course never return to pre-pandemic levels of attendance, but I do think we'll reach a nice, healthy equilibrium again here over the next couple of years.

To that end, maybe it's a good thing that some of the crappier theaters close? I know there are plenty of crappy theaters even here in LA that I avoid like the plague, that I wouldn't be sad to see go. And if some of those do close, and those ticket sales then go to the better theaters that actually take pride in their presentation, I don't see how that's a bad thing. Maybe the herd needs to be culled.

We just have to quit panic-framing this as if movie-going itself is somehow at stake, when it's not. This narrative has been going on for close to FIVE YEARS now, that the death of movie theaters is right around the corner, and yet here we are, still chugging right along, with a bright future ahead. A different future, yes, but a bright one nonetheless...
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Brian Earl Spilner
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12:46p, 6/10/24
AG
Fellowship of the Ring with a solid $2.44M.

https://collider.com/lord-of-the-rings-re-release-domestic-box-office-2-million/
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TCTTS
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2:23p, 6/14/24
AG
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2:23p, 6/14/24
AG
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Another Doug
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2:47p, 6/14/24
AG
I was told Disney would be going out of business any day now
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to TCTTS • 3:02p, 6/14/24
TCTTS said:
Wow what a projection.

The #1 widest R rating right now is It Chapter 2 at $91 million. This would be like close to 2-1/2 times as much

It would also be top 5 for a Marvel opening - Avengers is currenlty 5th at $207 million

Only 7 R rated movies have topped $300 m

Passion of the Christ - $370m
Deadpool $363m
American SNiper $350m
JOker $335m
OPpenheimer $329m
It $238m
Deadpool 2: $324m

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TCTTS
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 3:12p, 6/14/24
AG
I honestly had no idea that not a single R-rated movie has had $100M+ opening weekend yet. Yeah, this would absolutely destroy that. Crazy.
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veryfuller
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3:17p, 6/14/24
Staff
AG
I can't believe that it will get that high and DOUBLE the highest weekend for an R rated movie. How are they tracking that? There is obviously a lot of buzz around the movie, but there is also a large chunk of marvel audience that won't be able to go see it because of the rating.
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TCTTS
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In reply to veryfuller • 3:34p, 6/14/24
AG
Quote:
EXCLUSIVE: Disney/Marvel Studios' Deadpool & Wolverine hit six week tracking this morning and, man, does it look amazing. The Quorum, which actually monitors pics six weeks ahead, is reporting a projection of $200M-$239M, which the service actually believes is conservative.

Let's give this an asterisk: There has never been an R-rated movie before that has opened to $200M, and by the Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman threequel busting that sphere, it will be an anomaly. The current record for an R-rated opening at the domestic box office is owned by the original Deadpool which posted $132.4M back in February 2016. Even if Deadpool & Wolverine comes in at $150M (keep in mind, it's not clear if the younger Disney Marvel Studios parents/fans realize this is R-rated), it will still rep the biggest opening for both Reynolds (beating Deadpool) and Jackman (besting X-Men: The Last Stand's $103M). At that level, it will also be the highest opening of the summer, besting even this weekend's anticipated $100M start for Disney/Pixar's Inside Out 2.


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TCTTS
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In reply to TCTTS • 3:35p, 6/14/24
AG
The Quorum is basically the best/benchmark for industry tracking, so we shall see…
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In reply to TCTTS • 5:03p, 6/14/24
AG
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TCTTS • 5:09p, 6/14/24
AG
This wouldn't shock me. As a parent, I thought the original was really good and have been looking forward to this. I know a lot of other parents who felt the same.
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Fenrir
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 5:19p, 6/14/24
Same and given that nobody is complaining about any content in it so far I imagine it may have some legs as well.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 5:42p, 6/14/24
ABATTBQ11 said:
This wouldn't shock me. As a parent, I thought the original was really good and have been looking forward to this. I know a lot of other parents who felt the same.
This was my kids' first ever movie in the theater, 9 years ago. Disney/Pixar has a good track record for long waits and worth the wait.

14 years from Incredibles to Incredibles 2 = $1.42 bn box
6 years from Frozen to Frozen 2 = $1.45 bn
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TCTTS
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In reply to TCTTS • 7:17p, 6/14/24
AG
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to TCTTS • 7:18p, 6/14/24
AG
Taking the kiddos to see this one tomorrow. They have been looking forward to it for months.
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Farmer1906
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7:40p, 6/14/24
AG
This movie seems to buck a recent trend with recent Disney and Pixar animated films.
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The Porkchop Express
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2:36p, 6/15/24
Earth shaking $62 million for Inside Out 2 on Friday. Has a great shot at #2 or#3 biggest animated opening wver.
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ElephantRider
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4:26p, 6/15/24
AG
Just saw Inside Out 2 and it was incredible. Even better than the first
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to ElephantRider • 7:59p, 6/15/24
ElephantRider said:
Just saw Inside Out 2 and it was incredible. Even better than the first


Agree every parent and kid from about 8 up should see it. It's a really beautiful message
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batchuser
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 10:28a, 6/16/24
The Porkchop Express said:
ElephantRider said:
Just saw Inside Out 2 and it was incredible. Even better than the first


Agree every parent and kid from about 8 up should see it. It's a really beautiful message
Wow Disney who knew? Place storytelling and originality way above pushing inclusion and trying to please garbage on social media, and you get a box office hit. Now fire Kathleen Kennedy and save Star Wars
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to batchuser • 10:57a, 6/16/24
The breakout new character of Inside Out 2 is Maya Hawke who identifies as queer.
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The Porkchop Express
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11:19a, 6/16/24
$155m weekend for inside out 2. Second largest animated opening ever. Largest overseas animated opening ever. $295 million global in 3 days.
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Cliff.Booth
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 11:26a, 6/16/24
Does that come through in the movie? No? Massive ticket sales? That's because no one cares. We care about what's on the screen.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:55a, 6/16/24
AG
Came to watch inside out 2, honestly can't remember the last time I saw the theater parking lot and lobby this packed since Barbenheimer.
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captkirk
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In reply to batchuser • 12:43p, 6/16/24
AG
batchuser said:
The Porkchop Express said:
ElephantRider said:
Just saw Inside Out 2 and it was incredible. Even better than the first


Agree every parent and kid from about 8 up should see it. It's a really beautiful message
Wow Disney who knew? Place storytelling and originality way above pushing inclusion and trying to please garbage on social media, and you get a box office hit. Now fire Kathleen Kennedy and save Star Wars
this.
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TCTTS
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1:51p, 6/16/24
AG
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2:41p, 6/16/24
AG

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2:43p, 6/16/24
AG
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Cliff.Booth • 4:38p, 6/16/24
Cliff.Booth said:
Does that come through in the movie? No? Massive ticket sales? That's because no one cares. We care about what's on the screen.


There's also a character called Rileys dark secret that refuses to come out of a dark closet
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