Agreed. And it's probably going to take a fourth Spider-Man or the next Avengers to break the slump. The Marvels certainly won't do it, and I'm afraid the Captain America: New World Order / Thunderbolts back-to-back next year is just going to underline how "JV" this whole, post-Endgame era has felt, but maybe they'll surprise. Otherwise, we're looking at 2025 before any kind of a return to form, if ever...

I think I've been a pretty big MCU fan up to now and have a absolutely no interest in any of those movies, which makes me think most people don't either. Granted, there's no trailers yet for two of those, so who knows.

Somewhat related to MCU but mostly just GotG3:

I think this summer is going to be full of films having big openings and then getting swept aside for the next thing. Just a lot of films cannibalizing each other. Probably lots of hype but no way any of these do THAT well when something new and shinier is just around the corner. Consider:

Guardians 3, then two weeks later is
Fast 10, then one week later is
Little Mermaid, then a week later is
Spiderverse, then a week later is
Transformers, then a week later is
The Flash, then two weeks later is
Indiana Jones, then two weeks later is
Mission Impossible, then one week later is
Oppenheimer/Barbie

These can't all succeed. You need either a HUGE opening, or several weeks alone at the top, to make a billion dollars. Usually both. So if Guardians 3 is a disappointment with $600M+ globally, I don't see how Fast X has enough time in the spotlight with Mermaid on its heels. Then Spider-verse probably gets overshadowed. Then Transformers will come and go. Flash will enjoy two good weeks but Indy will leave it in the dust. Etc.

I'm guessing at least 4 of these films are going to wish they'd blinked and moved to late summer or a nice empty spot in the fall. My guess is Spider-verse, Transformers, Oppenheimer and Barbie. But will any film crack a billion? A billion dollar Indy might mean a flopping Mission Impossible/Oppenheimer/Barbie, for example.

We gon eat good this summer, but will any one studio?

On the flip side, Mario keeps on rolling internationally.

Universal's The Super Mario Bros. Movie passed the $600M international mark after grossing an estimated $50.3M internationally this weekend.

Estimated international total stands at $637.2M, estimated global total stands at $1.155B.#TheSuperMarioBrosMovie #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/wZBGc3E9y0

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) May 7, 2023

It just surpassed Incredible 2's $634M international gross, and will be surpassing it on the global charts shortly. ($1.24B)

rhutton125 said:

---

Somewhat related to MCU but mostly just GotG3:

I think this summer is going to be full of films having big openings and then getting swept aside for the next thing. Just a lot of films cannibalizing each other. Probably lots of hype but no way any of these do THAT well when something new and shinier is just around the corner. Consider:

Guardians 3, then two weeks later is
Fast 10, then one week later is
Little Mermaid, then a week later is
Spiderverse, then a week later is
Transformers, then a week later is
The Flash, then two weeks later is
Indiana Jones, then two weeks later is
Mission Impossible, then one week later is
Oppenheimer/Barbie

These can't all succeed. You need either a HUGE opening, or several weeks alone at the top, to make a billion dollars. Usually both. So if Guardians 3 is a disappointment with $600M+ globally, I don't see how Fast X has enough time in the spotlight with Mermaid on its heels. Then Spider-verse probably gets overshadowed. Then Transformers will come and go. Flash will enjoy two good weeks but Indy will leave it in the dust. Etc.

I'm guessing at least 4 of these films are going to wish they'd blinked and moved to late summer or a nice empty spot in the fall. My guess is Spider-verse, Transformers, Oppenheimer and Barbie. But will any film crack a billion? A billion dollar Indy might mean a flopping Mission Impossible/Oppenheimer/Barbie, for example.

We gon eat good this summer, but will any one studio?

---

I think the biggest issue will be the limited IMAX real estate, seeing as each release will get like two weeks tops on IMAX screens (if that), but otherwise most of those titles will play all summer long, in some form or fashion. Granted, May titles will almost assuredly be squeezed out come August, but otherwise this feels like the glory days of the 2010s again, when there were a ton of summer blockbusters and the studios all still managed to eat. It sucks that we'll only have a matter of days to catch something like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in IMAX, but overall I think this summer is going to be fantastic for everyone - studios, theaters, and audiences alike.

Also, speaking of August, don't count out Meg 2: The Trench and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, both on August 4. The former screened footage at CinemaCon a couple weeks back, and although it looked expectedly camp, it also apparently brought the house down, to the point where pundits are now predicting it'll be the sleeper hit of the summer. That, and Blue Beetle on August 18 could make for a nice little surprise as well.

Pretty good pod on this very subject from Matt Belloni from Thursday...

New pod: We got the data, so it’s time to predict hits/misses of Summer. With box office savant @ScottMendelson. Listen! https://t.co/0FjuwpghfN

— Matthew Belloni (@MattBelloni) May 4, 2023

All good points. I guess I just wonder what the narrative will be for each film when it's all said and done. 2016 had a packed summer, and while few of them were as anticipated as this year's slate is, there were a lot of films with big openings that ultimately ended up as box office disappointments and didn't get sequels. Jason Bourne and Star Trek: Beyond come to mind. But Suicide Squad had an empty month ahead of it and made crazy money.

I guess we'll see! I just wonder how many will make a respectable half-billion but will ultimately be franchise-enders because they needed like $750M to be profitable.

To me, it's some of the May/early June titles that are the only ones in real danger of this, whereas the late June/July titles will have all of August and September with very little competition (relatively speaking).

That said, I do think one or two of these titles would definitely have been better served moving to December, considering how weak this Christmas is in terms of blockbusters, with just Wonka and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on the slate.

Pretty good listen

Brian Earl Spilner said:

---

On the flip side, Mario keeps on rolling internationally.

Universal's The Super Mario Bros. Movie passed the $600M international mark after grossing an estimated $50.3M internationally this weekend.

Estimated international total stands at $637.2M, estimated global total stands at $1.155B.#TheSuperMarioBrosMovie #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/wZBGc3E9y0

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) May 7, 2023

It just surpassed Incredible 2's $634M international gross, and will be surpassing it on the global charts shortly. ($1.24B)

---

Nintendo is really interesting to me. Started as a card company in the 1800s. They move into video games with great success. But twice they release consoles that do poorly enough that it looks like the company is in trouble (GameCube, WiiU). But they bounce back massively both times (Wii, Switch), all while going against two of the biggest tech companies on the planet, Sony and Microsoft. Now the success of the Mario movie, more than anyone could've expected.

And they've now expanded into theme parks, and have a potential GOTY releasing in less than a week.

It's a good time for Nintendo.

Do we know what the next big Nintendo movie adaptation will be? I imagine they'll try to capitalize on this with something soon. Maybe Zelda or Metroid or a Donkey Kong spinoff..?

DK is the rumor.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

---

Mario estimate is $18.5M, -55% and once again beating out Incredibles 2's $16.2M on its fifth weekend.

Also marks the first weekend Mario has fallen more than 40%. But given the competition of a new MCU movie, that is still impressive. My guess is that drops back into the 35-45% range next weekend.

---

I thought -35% was the best case, but nope. Back down to a -28% dip for a $13.3M sixth weekend. Still beating out Incredibles 2 consistently every weekend.

Its weekdays have been smaller due to not being in the summer. But this thing just keeps going. Has a solid shot at $600M.

GUARDIANS VOL 3 potentially matching VOL 2's second weekend despite opening nearly $30M lower. Very nice. https://t.co/bF6PRfjxou

— ViewerAnon (@ViewerAnon) May 13, 2023

That's a strong hold.

#GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol3    just pulled a PHANTOM MENACE, coming off a slightly underwhelming opening weekend with a banger hold (-49% domestic on par w/ IRON MAN & THE AVENGERS) for a $528 million global cume. A $800 million-plus worldwide finish is now in play. #boxoffice pic.twitter.com/Yr9MPqGFn7

— Scott Mendelson (@ScottMendelson) May 14, 2023

#JohnWick is now officially a Billion Dollar Franchise!

1 - $44.8M intl/$43M dom/$87.8M global, 51%/49%
2 - $79.5M/$92M/$171.5M, 46%/54%
3 - $155.7M/$171M/$326.7M, 48%/52%
4 - $241.3M/$184M/$425.3M, 57%/43%

$1.01B at worldwide #boxoffice. Oh, there's demand for Chapter 5!

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) May 19, 2023

#FastX has beaten projections overseas:
FURIOUS 251.4M 5-day weekend over 70 markets.
Allied to 67.5M in the US, #Fast10 saw 318.9M Global 5-day opening at #BoxOffice
#3 biggest at #FastAndFurious under #F8 541.9M #F7 397.6M.
#6 biggest Post-Covid
#2 biggest for no-CBM Post-Covid pic.twitter.com/p8dks6WAUb

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) May 21, 2023

So a somewhat-dinky U.S. opening but a massive overseas opening? Am I interpreting that right? This franchise is always absurdly international in its ratios so I guess that sounds about right.

#GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol3 earned $81 million this weekend (-48%) for a $659 million global cume. An over $800 million finish is all but assured, and it may get close to the $869 million total of 'Guardians Vol 2'. Whether or not it tops the summer, it's a big win. #boxoffice pic.twitter.com/LwSgHJIxDi

— Scott Mendelson (@ScottMendelson) May 21, 2023

So Spider-verse is tracking ahead of Fast X'd opening, and Fast X made a pathetic 23m in its second weekend (barely ahead of Guardians in its 4th weekend).

I was pretty down on the domestic value of the Fast franchise but damn. Those are worse than Black Adam numbers.

LM did 5th best Memorial Day weekend opening numbers.

Weekend final numbers: (3-day)
1. The Little Mermaid - $95.58m (new)
2. Fast X - $23.03m for $107.96m
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - $20.81m for $300.29mhttps://t.co/dXvbX2592D. #THELITTLEMERMAID #FastX #GuardiansoftheGalaxyVol3 #BoxOffice @MovieNumbers

— The Numbers (@MovieNumbers) May 30, 2023

Superhero fatigue is a myth. What we are seeing is superhero normalization - people are not treating the genre as a behemoth where they need to see everything but are picking and choosing. https://t.co/DZhvOBixO9

— devincf (@devincf) June 4, 2023

'The Flash' Striking Around $9M Thursday Night - Box Office Early Look https://t.co/GZMUVXWz85 pic.twitter.com/xPZRejujjH

— Deadline Hollywood (@DEADLINE) June 16, 2023

The Flash dropping to $55 million over the 3-day and just $64 mil over the 4-day is just...not great for WB. Think the studio is in a very confusing place with the hardcore fans with Gunn touting a new DCU and films that may or may not fit into them. Good luck with Aquaman 2...

— Gregory Ellwood - The Playlist 🎬 (@TheGregoryE) June 18, 2023

personally don't understand the harsh criticisms of Elemental by some critics after many Pixar "passes" in the past (A Cinemascore agrees with me) but the $30-ish 4-day opening is terrible for Disney. Putting all the animated films on D+ has gutted theatrical..for the moment

— Gregory Ellwood - The Playlist 🎬 (@TheGregoryE) June 18, 2023

Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 3 hasn't hit a billion but has quietly scored a fine $821 million global. Proves superhero/MCU movies aren't dead yet. Disney has to find a way to make The Marvels special though.

— Gregory Ellwood - The Playlist 🎬 (@TheGregoryE) June 18, 2023

Brian Earl Spilner said:

---

People keep bringing up GOTG 3 as an example of why superhero fatigue isn't real, but let's be honest, that movie would've made $1B in a world where fatigue wasn't happening.

---

Yep. There is most definitely fatigue over multiverse type releases.

Only exception I can think of is John Wick 4. It was most certainly a hit, but didn't blow the doors down either. It was just a bit below what I would've expected, given the trajectory of that series.

Specialty cinema is BACK!!!

Wes Anderson’s #AsteroidCity soars with $790K from just 6 LA/NY locations for totally spacey $132K PTA

We have REALLY returned to 2019 levels when we see this kinda number

Kudos to Focus for this BRILLIANT counterprogramming play ☄️☄️☄️ pic.twitter.com/1goWXBPf2Y

— Erick 𝕄𝕄𝕋 Weber 🎥 (@ErickWeber) June 18, 2023

Tracking always has a certain margin of error. It's rarely perfect. But two things strike me as especially unusual: the discrepancy of what movies over or under perform (IE, live-action superhero movies), and when movies fall outside that standard deviation, it's WAY off.

— Brendan Hodges (@metaplexmovies) June 19, 2023

I'm sure less reliable tracking worries studios, but it does make it kind of exciting we're a little less sure how well a movie will do before opening weekend. I have no great guess how BARBIE or OPPENHEIMER will do, and I kind of love nobody else really does either.

— Brendan Hodges (@metaplexmovies) June 19, 2023

Based on Friday estimates, THE FLASH is looking at an insane 72% drop in second weekend, which would put it in a race with MORBIUS for worst of superhero movies tracked by box office mojo. https://t.co/MG59tn2LMr

— Matthew Belloni (@MattBelloni) June 23, 2023

Holy ****