every time someone complains about AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER "underperforming" I'm going to pull out this picture of James Cameron lighting a cigar with a 100 dollar bill pic.twitter.com/bP8gq5zRDm

— maxance vincent (@MaxFromQuebec) December 19, 2022

Avatar: The Way of Water enters its third weekend with a box office gross of $1.169 billion.

According to estimates, it should stand at just under $1.4b by Sunday.#Avatar #AvatarTheWayOfWater pic.twitter.com/GcASWbWW33

— Na'vi Nation (@navi_nation) December 30, 2022

And now a huge Thursday...

It was another $20M day for James Cameron's Avatar: The Way of Water, so big that it was the biggest regular box office Thursday of the year after the sequel's Dec. 22 take of $14.6M and Top Gun: Maverick's June 2 gross. The movie's running total is $358M stateside with a 3-day expected to be around $50M and will cross the $400M threshold on New Year's Day per box office sources. New Year's Eve Saturday isn't expected to be as depressed as Christmas Eve was a week ago.

For reference, Rogue One made $16.7M on that same date, with a running cume of $375M.

So Way of Water is still about $17M below Rogue One, but already outpacing it and likely to close that gap even more this weekend. RO finished with $532M, so that's probably the floor at this point. I think $600M is very much in play.

Total Thursday global was $67.9M. Overseas B.O. total cume is $810.6M surpassing Top Gun: Maverick's $770M to become the No. 1 international release of 2022 and No. 2 MPA title abroad in the pandemic era.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Avatar-The-Way-of-Water-(2022)/Top-Gun-Maverick-(2020)/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Good comparison chart with Maverick and RO.

I made one of these in Excel for TFA years back before I realized The Numbers made them.

The Way of Water's 3rd Friday is on its way to $22M+, which is up 15% from its second Friday of $19.2M and will put the sequel's 15-day total at around $380M.

Today's gross is also bigger than Rogue One's third Friday of $18.2M. This looks to be shaping up for a third 3-day weekend of $57M, -10%, and 4-day of $75M+. By EOD Monday, Jan. 2, movie hopes to stand at $433.1M stateside.

Now part of this can be attributed to Xmas falling on a Sunday last weekend, and some to the fact that the marketplace has 37% less product than normal, but if we're being real here...it's JAMES CAMERON...and he made another movie that the multiplex masses adore. Pretty simple.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) December 31, 2022

That's two straight weekends of early Deadline estimates being way off.

That puts the James Cameron movie on a run for a $67.8M 3-day weekend, +7% from last weekend's Christmas period, and a potential 4-day between $87M-$92M per industry estimates.

On the high end of that range, Avatar 2 could see a 4% dip from its Dec. 23-26 take of $95.6M. In that range, Avatar 2 by Monday would outstrip the 18-day running total of its comp, 2016's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which had $440.9M by that point in time with a total between $450M-$446M. By Monday, Avatar 2 also could best the running total of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, that pic rising its total to $440M.

Also, for those keeping track, not even the original Avatar managed a weekend increase until mid-February, with a +3.3% increase over Valentine's Day weekend.

A third weekend increase, even with the winter storm last weekend, is nuts.

Cameron does not miss.

Just waiting on Ant Man. I'll be good for at least 3 different trips to the movie theater

#AvatarTheWayOfWater earned $24.4M on Friday (+26% from last Friday and just -53% its opening Friday) for a likely $67M weekend (+6% last weekend and almost tied with Avatar's $69M third wknd in 2010). By Monday, it may have $446M domestic and $1.45 billion worldwide. #boxoffice pic.twitter.com/5ZnVbSGpIU

— Scott Mendelson (@ScottMendelson) December 31, 2022

And funny cause Cameron said we wouldn't really know how the movie will do till the third weekend.

Cut to...

Avatar 2 moved up to 4th on the year on Friday, passing The Batman, Minions: Rise of Gru, and Jurassic World: Dominion in one fell swoop in its way to $382 million.

It will pass Dr. Strange 2 either Saturday or Sunday, and then hunt down Black Panther 2 within a few more days of that.

That will leave only the steep climb to Top Gun: Maverick at $718 million.

Puss in Boots 2 continued its own slow burn up the charts, making $6.46 million on Friday to reach an even $50 million. It's nowhere close to Avatar 2, but it's doing a good impersonation of it. It made nearly 3 miillion more on Friday the 30th than it had on Friday the 23rd, and while its box office will drop off precipitously once the kids are back in school, it still has the MLK weekend coming up to push towards $100 million.

Black Panther 2 reached another milestone on Friday, surpassing Toy Story 4 for 26th all-time domestic at $434,965,653. The film should have the legs to pass ET for $25 all-time between Saturday and Sunday, giving that franchise two Top 25 movies each. Only The Avengers has done similar among the Marvel set, and only Star Wars and the Dark Knight series also have more than one entry in the Top 25. That list now looks like:

Avengers Franchise: #2, #7, #10, #22
Star Wars Franchise: #1, #11, #15, #16, #20, #21
Dark Knight Franchise: #14, #23

Later this weekend, BP will own #6 and #25
Later this week, Avatar will own #4 and #25 and keep on rising.

Avengers is the only series with 2 films in the top 10 after Maverick knocked The Last Jedi down to 11th. Avatar should have plenty of legs to do the same.

Both ‘AVATAR’ films have earned $4 billion combined at the worldwide box office.

Read our review: https://t.co/FfoibUiM6v pic.twitter.com/E52Azn1G9R

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) December 30, 2022

Avatar has busted past $400 million and taken over the #3 spot on the year.

The film made an estimated $18 million on New Year's Eve and will make another $21 million today, running its total domestic gross to $421.6 million

It passed Dr. STrange 2 ($411 million) and is just $16 million behind Wakanda Forever for second. It should pass it Monday or Tuesday.

Way of Water is now 32nd all-time at the domestic box office and up to $1.232 billion worldwide.

James Cameron's Avatar: The Way of Water rang in the New Year with another $186.7M from 52 international markets for a $1.379B global cume to date. Excluding China, the film rose 4% from last weekend's Christmas frame offshore (including China it was even with last session). The international box office now stands at an estimated $957M, meaning Way of Water will cross $1B overseas early this week.

The Disney title is now the 15th biggest movie of all time globally, overtaking Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2.

Black Panther 2 is up to $437.975 million through Sunday. It will push past ET for 25th all time in a day or 2.

Having four movies make $400 million in the same year (Maverick, Strange 2, BP 2, Avatar 2) has only happened two other times in history.

In 2019, it was Endgame, the Lion King, The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, and Captain Marvel
In 2018, it was Black Panther, Infinity War, Incredibles 2, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Puss in Boots 2 had two more $5+ million days to reach $60.7 million in 12 days.

Babylon stunk its way to $935K on Friday, $730K on Saturday, and $1.065 m on Sunday. It's made $10.1 million in 10 days, $4 million behind the Whitney Houston biopic that definitely does not start Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Avatar-The-Way-of-Water-(2022)/Top-Gun-Maverick-(2020)/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Good comparison chart with Maverick and RO.

I made one of these in Excel for TFA years back before I realized The Numbers made them.

---

Up to Sunday, you can see Way of Water is just a hair below Rogue One and should be overtaking it tomorrow to take the lead among the three movies.

Hard to say if it can match Maverick yet. Based on the eyeball test of the chart, gun to my head, I think it settles in around $615M.

Disney estimates A2's domestic total will be at $440.5M through Monday.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) January 1, 2023

I'm more impressed by the fact that two of those are Avatar movies without a massive, decades old IP supporting them.

Yea, you are referring to the best thing ever.

Avatar 2 is on track for an $18.956 million Monday, leading to a really cool event where on the same day, Avatar 2 and Black Panther 2 both pass ET on the all-time domestic box office list, and Avatar 2 moves into second place for 2022.

With Monday's estimates for both movies, the all-time chart in the mid 20s now looks like:

24. Shrek 2 $441,226,247
25. Avatar 2 $440,517,914
26. BP 2 $439,645,653
27 ET $437,141,279

This is Avatar's last holiday day for a couple of weeks until MLK weekend. Most people go back to work/school tomorrow so it'll be interesting to see what happens to the box. When the original came out, it scored $17 million on Sunday January 3, then dipped to $8 million on MOnday the 4th and to $6 million on Thursday the 7ty, but then made $49 million on its 4th weekend ($13+21+15)..It made another $53 million on the 4-day MLK weekend.

It also finished $3.4MM above estimates this past weekend. $66.8MM actual vs $63.M estimate.

Sunday came in stronger for Avatar: The Way of Water than Disney expected, grossing a great $24.4M to what was thought to be $21M. That's the third biggest New Year's Day haul of all-time after The Force Awakens ($34.3M) and James Cameron's first Avatar ($25.2M). Avatar 2's New Year's Day was even bigger than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($23.1M) last year.

The third weekend of the James Cameron title rises to $66.8M, +6% from its Christmas weekend, with a 4-day of $86.3M. By the end of today, it's expected that Avatar 2 will pass the $440.9M 18-day total of Rogue One with $444.4M.

Was looking up showtimes for Babylon today, and out of curiosity checked out the matinee showing of Way of Water in IMAX.

It's about 90% full and even more so than the very first showing I went to on opening day. That's pretty nuts.

Today is still a holiday for a ton of people.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Was looking up showtimes for Babylon today, and out of curiosity checked out the matinee showing of Way of Water in IMAX.

It's about 90% full and even more so than the very first showing I went to on opening day. That's pretty nuts.

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Looking up showtimes for Babylon is pretty nuts! Just walk up to the box office and say you want to see it. They'll dust off the reel and give you an empty theater.

Most people, I think. Just saying that's impressive for any movie.

It's currently me and one other guy in the theater for Babylon five minutes after showtime.

I would bet by the way, that in real terms Avatar has already made a profit for this years balance sheet.
Cameron has been working on this for years, much of the cost was sunk into P&L statements going back years.

And somehow some way, once again he will lavishly overspend, need a near miracle to break even let alone make a profit, and once again even the full 2 billion (if that's real) will be recouped with some spending cash left over.
It's amazing that it continues to happen.

I think they basically shot 2-3 together, so pre-production costs are already mostly cut out for that.

I don't see how the budget for that isn't at least $30M less from just that.

Not to mention that a HUGE amount of Fox's money went into R&D on the new underwater motion capture tech they had to develop, all of which is already spent.