***** The Box Office Thread *****

127,967 Views | 1371 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by The Porkchop Express
The Porkchop Express
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Somewhat of a mid-week dip for Mario, down from $7.4 million on Tuesday to $4.8 million on Wednesday. I don't know enough about the movie business to know if Wednesdays are a traditionally weak day for some reason. Regardless, it's up to $371 million

That displaces Minions 2: Gru Boogaloo from #10 on the all-time animated domestic list after less than a year and has Tanooki Mario, the true star of the film, now 53rd all-time domestic, jumping ahead of Despicable Me 2, The Secret LIfe of Pets, The Batman, Rise of Gru, and the Passion of the Christ, proving that when it comes to movie villains, Pontious Pilate doesn't have **** on Bowser.

It's up to $729.5 million worldwide. Just 9 animated movies have ever made it past the $1 billion threshhold. Mario is slightly more than halfway to the top of the charts where Queen Elsa resides in Frozen 2 with $1.437 billion.

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Brian Earl Spilner
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Massive $56M+ third weekend estimate for Mario.

That blows away Shrek 2 ($37M), Frozen 2 ($35M), and even Incredibles 2. ($46M)

Incredible -39% hold.

Also blasted past $700M worldwide before the weekend even started.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Upped to $58M. In other words, it's gonna be $60M+.
Brian Earl Spilner
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As for worldwide...

The Porkchop Express
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No updates from me this weekend, on vacation!
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Mario now at #5 animated movie of all time, domestically.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Final Mario numbers for the weekend were $59.9M.

One family changed their plans and kept it from hitting 60.
The Porkchop Express
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Final Mario numbers for the weekend were $59.9M.

One family changed their plans and kept it from hitting 60.
It was me. My daughter and I were going to go see it in Atlanta yesterday but we wound up staying at the zoo all afternoon instead. I'll clean out my desk.
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The Porkchop Express
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Now up to 28th all-time domestic at $436 million. ET is at $439, Shrek 2 at $441, and the Dark Knight Rises at $448 as the barrier to the top 25.

#20 right now is Frozen 2 ($477m)

#15 is The Dark Knight ($534m)

12 years ago, Avengers reached #3 all-time at $623 million. If Mario keeps rolling, it has a chance to shove Avengers down to 12th.

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Brian Earl Spilner
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I've been tracking Mario's daily chart on The Numbers. Initially, my comparables were Minions: Rise of Gru and Shrek 2.

Minions was eclipsed pretty quickly, at which point I dropped it and replaced it with Frozen 2.

Friday it became clear Shrek 2 was no longer a good comp, so I dropped that and added Incredibles 2.

After this weekend's huge jump, it has now left Frozen 2 far below its trendline and is getting pretty close to crossing Incredibles 2.

The way it's just kept going is crazy.

Here's the chart with all those movies:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Minions-The-Rise-of-Gru-(2021)/Shrek-2/Frozen-II-(2019)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison
The Porkchop Express
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$3.943 million for Super Mario Bros on Monday has it up to $439.5m domestic in 20 days. This allowed it to pass E.T> by about $250,000 for 27th place all-time. It likely passes Shrek 2 on Tuesday, and should reach the Top 25 heading into the weekend. In a couple of weeks it will become just the 19th movie to hit $500 million domestic, and only the 3rd animated movie to do so. (4th if you count the photo-realistic Lion King from a few years ago). I don't know how to categorize that.
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The Porkchop Express
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Mario made $4.5 million on Tuesday to move past Shrek 2 to #4 on the all-time domestic animated list and #26 on the all-time domestic list. It's remarkably split on domestic v. foreign - $444m domestic and $441m international.

Next up on the domestic chart is The Dark Knight Rises at $448m. Next up on the animated list is Frozen II at $477m.

At $885.7m international, it is up to 72nd all-time. Animated movies that have made $1 billion or more internationally include: Frozen II ($1.437 bn), Frozen ($1.256 bn), Incredibles 2 ($1.242 bn), Minions ($1.157 bn), Toy Story 4 (the ****ty one) $1.073 bn, Toy Story 3 (the great one) $1.068 bn, Despicable Me 3 ($1.032 bn), Findng Dory ($1.025 bn), and Zootopia ($1.002 bn).
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Mario passed $450M domestically yesterday, and is expected to do ~$30M this weekend.
Brian Earl Spilner
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$37.5M estimate for Mario. Upped from a $30M projection.

It just keeps blowing away estimates weekend after weekend.

Weekdays have been good but the weekends are ridiculous. For comparison, Incredible did $28.4M in its fourth weekend. And that's the only bar left to look at as far as animated movies.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Hitting $1B tomorrow.

The Porkchop Express
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Mario made $8.9 million on Friday to reach $458.9m for its run, pushing it past The Dark Knight Rises and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever into 24th place all-time domestic.

The triumphant re-release of Return of the Jedi finished 4th for the country despite being in just 475 theaters.

That's $3,686 per screen, easily the highest total of the day.

The release pushed Jedi past Pirates of the Carribbean: At World's End and Attack of the Clones up to #91 domestic. It will likely claw its way into the top 85 or so before it leaves theaters.

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Brian Earl Spilner
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Are You There, God? It's a-me, Mario.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Yet another bump for Mario.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I've been tracking Mario's daily chart on The Numbers. Initially, my comparables were Minions: Rise of Gru and Shrek 2.

Minions was eclipsed pretty quickly, at which point I dropped it and replaced it with Frozen 2.

Friday it became clear Shrek 2 was no longer a good comp, so I dropped that and added Incredibles 2.

After this weekend's huge jump, it has now left Frozen 2 far below its trendline and is getting pretty close to crossing Incredibles 2.

The way it's just kept going is crazy.

Here's the chart with all those movies:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Minions-The-Rise-of-Gru-(2021)/Shrek-2/Frozen-II-(2019)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison


Dropped Frozen 2. Added The Lion King (2019).
The Porkchop Express
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Mario made $40 million for the weekend to surge to $490 million domestic.

A really great weekend at the box overall, with surprise hit Evil Dead Rise making $12.2 million, Judy Blume adapation "Are You There God, It's Me Margaret" making $6.8 million, the limited-edition release of ROTJ getting $4.694 million in just 475 theaters, and D&D hitting $4 million to edge closer to $100 million ($88.7 right now).

Mario toppled Avengers 2, Star Wars, TPM, Frozen II, and Finding Dory over the course of Saturday and Sunday to reach 19th domestic. This coming week it will become the 19th film to surpass $500 million domestic, and the 4th to do it this decade.

The numbers get steeper from there - there are 5 films bunched together between $504m-$543m, then you go way up the escalator to Incredibles 2 at $608 million.

All-time worldwide, Mario is now 47th at $1.022 billion.

Return of the Jedi now up to 90th all-time at $313.841 million, and will jump some other great titles in the next few days.
The Porkchop Express
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Most schools have about 3-1/2 more weeks of class. They let out around May 25 just in time for Labor Day weekend. I think Mario is going to end up in the Top 10 movies ever domestic ($650m+)


Brian Earl Spilner
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Agreed. It's gonna continue playing well into the summer. Also Universal delayed the VOD release like Paramount did with Top Gun.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Big weekend. Guardians 3 kicking off the summer season, and we'll see how strong Mario will hold with actual competition.

Guardians isn't tracking to open particularly big (~$120M), but I feel like the word of mouth is going to be a huge factor. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the Friday-to-Saturday hold is one of the strongest in the MCU. Just a gut feeling. I think it way outperforms projections just like Mario did.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Damn, estimates are still dropping. Now saying $110M.

I've been saying for a while the hype felt kind of dead for this movie, but I didn't think it'd go THAT low.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Mario estimate is $18.5M, -55% and once again beating out Incredibles 2's $16.2M on its fifth weekend.

Also marks the first weekend Mario has fallen more than 40%. But given the competition of a new MCU movie, that is still impressive. My guess is that drops back into the 35-45% range next weekend.
AliasMan02
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My noon XD showing of GotG for tomorrow is nearly sold out already.

But more importantly, who is going to all the 3d showings that somehow still exist?
TCTTS
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rhutton125
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Well Scott Mantz seems annoying.

The spoiler-free consensus in my group after GotG3 was that we all thought it was great but were in no rush to revisit any time soon because it's a tough watch at parts. Kind of like Wakanda Forever, where I wasn't eager to go back for seconds on such an emotionally difficult film.

2.5 hours + emotional and brutal =/= easy box office records. But I think it's a high quality film, and not standard superhero fare, so that is better news for the genre than middling reviews and a billion in revenue IMO.
Brian Earl Spilner
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You still alive?
TCTTS
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Brian Earl Spilner
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I thought it was a shoe-in for $1B until about a month ago. Then I started feeling like it might underperform. Then I saw it and thought word of mouth will help it, but I guess my hunch was right.

I think Marvel fatigue is a real thing now. The dip in quality post-Endgame has finally caught up to them.

The Marvels will struggle to hit $400M.
Brian Earl Spilner
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By the way, I am now 95% sure Mario wins the year.
 
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