***** The Box Office Thread *****

127,968 Views | 1371 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by The Porkchop Express
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The Collective
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She's a cash machine
SJEAg
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She couldn't save "Cats" though.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Taylor Swift fans are weirdos.

https://reddit.com/r/AITAH/s/VHVkh8M6Pl
Another Doug
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Taylor Swift fans are weirdos.

https://reddit.com/r/AITAH/s/VHVkh8M6Pl
A hardcore Taylor Swift fan exhibits similar behavior to a casual college football fan.
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The Porkchop Express
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Barbie overtook The Last Jedi for 12th place domestic today, at $620.5 million. this week it will pass The Avengers ($623 million) for 11th. Jurassic World is currently 10th at $652 million.

Oppenheimer has reached the Top 100 at $315 million for 93rd place. The new threshold to be in the Top 100 movies domestically is $304.36 million, currently held by Skyfall.

In the last calendar year, dating back to the fall of '22, an impressive 7 movies have joined the domestic Top 100.

#7 Avatar 2 - $684 million
#12 Barbie - $620 million and rising
#15 Super Mario Bros - $574 million
#26 Black Panther 2 - $453 million
#49 Spiderverse 2 - $381 million and just about done
#63 Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - $359 million
#93 Oppenheimer - $3125 million and rising
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oragator
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Oppenheimer crossed 900 million WW this weekend. Has an outside shot of getting to a billion.
Guess the studio acquiescing to all of Nolan's demands was worth it, they are gonna clear several hundred million in profit and locked up one of the best directors out there, if not the best,

https://deadline.com/2023/09/oppenheimer-milestone-900-million-global-box-office-christopher-nolan-cillian-murphy-universal-1235548541/
The Porkchop Express
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Barbie passed The Avengers for 11th place domestic this weekend, and is now at $626 million for its 59-day run. Avengers was out for 133 days back in 2012.

Even with its total screens down by about 33% from its opening, and the fact you can rent it on Amazon now, it still made more than $1 million per day this weekend, suggesting it has the chops to hit the top 10 later this year. it is currently $26 million behind Jurassic World at $652 million.

When JW debuted in the summer of 2015, it was 3rd all time, trailing just Avatar and Titanic. Now it's on the verge of dropping out of the Top 10.
The Porkchop Express
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Early estimates on Taylor Swift a stunning $97 million for opening weekend. It made $39 million Friday night.

That's 24th on the all-time, non-sequel opening weekend domestic. If you take away stuff that isn't clearly part of a larger film franchise (Avengers, Rogue One) or a remake of an original (Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King)

I would put it behind only
Barbie $162 m
The SUper Mario Bros. Movie $146 m
Deadpool $132 m
It $123 m
Alice In Wonderland $115 m
SEcret Life of Pets $104 m
Wonder Woman $103 m
and Iron M an $102 m





Life is better with a beagle
TCTTS
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The Porkchop Express
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To no one's surprise, Aquaman 2 came staggering out of the gates. It made $13.7 million combined on Thursday and Friday, which is what the original made solely in its Thursday night previews back in 2018. The original made $32 million on its first day (12/21/18) and crossed $100 million by Christmas, topping out at $335 m domestic.


DC 2023 releases

Blue Beetle: $10 million its first day, $25 million its first weekend, $72 million total domestic
The Flash: $24 ,million its first day $55 million its first weekend, $108 million total domestic
Shazam 2: $11 million first day, $23 million its first weekend, $57 million total domestic
double aught
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That is a sad state of affairs.
Aggie_Journalist
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The Porkchop Express said:


Shazam 2: $11 million first day, $230 million its first weekend, $57 million total domestic


Is there a typo in there?
Thanks and gig'em
The Porkchop Express
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Aquaman 2 got to $40 million with a $12 million Christmas day.
The original, with 2 extra days out, passed $105 million on Christmas day 2018.

The yearly domestic box office total is at $8.6 billion with a week to go in the year, about $700 million ahead of 2022 and almost double the recovery year of 2021. But still well below 2019's $11.4 billion. The total domestic box office was at least $10 billion every year from 2009-2019.

Was a pretty weird year at the box office. Twenty-one movies broke $100 million, but only 7 of them broke $200 million. For all of the death knell talk about Ant-Man 3, it wound up making $214 million and finishing 7th on the year. Trolls Band Together will probably sneak past $100 million at some point.

The top 5 for 2023: Barbie $636 m, Super Mario Bros $574 m, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $381 m; GOTG 3 $359 m; Oppenheimer $326 m. So 2 toys, 2 super heroes, and the most destructive force on the planet (other than Jimbo).

The death of Disney produced #4, #6, #7, #11 and #15

If it wasn't for Barbie, Warner Brothers should just fold up the tent.
The Flash: $108 million
Meg 2: $82 million
Blue Beetle: $72 million
Shazam 2: $57 million
Wonka: $57 million through 11 days, but I gotta believe they thought it was going to blow up
Aquaman 2: $40 million through 5 days
Magic Mike's limp Dick $26 million



TCTTS
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Thanks for the breakdown.

Unfortunately, I think 2024 is going to dip back down below 2023, in terms of yearly domestic box office. But then I could see 2025 skyrocketing past 2023, at around $10B or so, with...

- Avatar 3
- The Batman Part II
- Blade
- Captain America: Brave New World
- F1 (Brad Pitt racing movie from the director Top Gun: Maverick)
- Fantastic Four
- How to Train Your Dragon (Live Action)
- Minecraft
- Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part Two
- Moana (Live Action)
- The Movie Critic (Quentin Tarantino's next)
- Paddington in Peru
- Snow White (Live Action)
- The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants
- Superman: Legacy
- Thunderbolts
- Untitled Jordan Peele Project
- Wicked: Part Two

... among other potential surprises.
coldmoose
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The Porkchop Express said:

Aquaman 2 got to $40 million with a $12 million Christmas day.
The original, with 2 extra days out, passed $105 million on Christmas day 2018.

The yearly domestic box office total is at $8.6 billion with a week to go in the year, about $700 million ahead of 2022 and almost double the recovery year of 2021. But still well below 2019's $11.4 billion. The total domestic box office was at least $10 billion every year from 2009-2019.

Was a pretty weird year at the box office. Twenty-one movies broke $100 million, but only 7 of them broke $200 million. For all of the death knell talk about Ant-Man 3, it wound up making $214 million and finishing 7th on the year. Trolls Band Together will probably sneak past $100 million at some point.

The top 5 for 2023: Barbie $636 m, Super Mario Bros $574 m, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $381 m; GOTG 3 $359 m; Oppenheimer $326 m. So 2 toys, 2 super heroes, and the most destructive force on the planet (other than Jimbo).

The death of Disney produced #4, #6, #7, #11 and #15

If it wasn't for Barbie, Warner Brothers should just fold up the tent.
The Flash: $108 million
Meg 2: $82 million
Blue Beetle: $72 million
Shazam 2: $57 million
Wonka: $57 million through 11 days, but I gotta believe they thought it was going to blow up
Aquaman 2: $40 million through 5 days
Magic Mike's limp Dick $26 million




Isn't The Color Purple, Warner Brothers? It is off to a good start.
TCTTS
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Yep. Our local theater was packed last night for that movie. Biggest holiday crowd I've seen in years.
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The Porkchop Express
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Aquaman 2 had a surprisingly strong 2nd week with the Christmas holiday, getting up to $77 million. Per The Numbers, estimates, its first weekend box office had it projected to reach $45-$60 million by today, but it is well ahead of that.

This is a bit of an interesting trend this year where movies that didn't blow up in the first week still made a tidy profit as time moved on. You can actually take it all the way back to Puss N Boots 2 last Christmas which was projected to do $33-$45 million on its first week and ended up making $185 million.

Elemental did the same thing, projected to make $77-$118 million and finishing at $145 mil. With a few more holiday days and MLK weekend, Aquaman seems a cinch to make it past $100 million and at least displace The Flash as Paramount's best superhero movie of 2023.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Aquaman 2 has already outgrossed Marvels' worldwide by $50M.
TCTTS
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At this point, I think only Deadpool 3 and Despicable Me 4 have a legit shot, but as 2023 proved with Barbie and Oppenheimer, we could always be in for a surprise or two...

Brian Earl Spilner
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Might seem nuts, but I'm gonna say none of those.
The Porkchop Express
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TCTTS said:

At this point, I think only Deadpool 3 and Despicable Me 4 have a legit shot, but as 2023 proved with Barbie and Oppenheimer, we could always be in for a surprise or two...


That is a ****ty looking list, no offense to anyone. I agree with Brian. Maybe Deadpool 3 with Jackman joining the fray. I would say Inside Out 2, but they replaced Hader and Kaling with soundalikes and that pisses me off just on principle

Is Argyle about Jonahtan's stoner friend from Stranger Things?

veryfuller
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The other Deadpool movies didn't even break $500 million, so I don't think 3 will reach the 1 billion mark.

Despicable Me 4 and Joker 2 have the best shots, just because they are follow ups to billion dollar movies. Inside Out 2 could do it if its good (the first made $850 million).

But, I'm on team none of them make it happen.
TCTTS
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At first glance it's a sh*t year to be sure, due to a number of factors. That said, the trailers we have so far have me cautiously optimistic (Dune: Part Two, Furiosa, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, etc.), and titles like Twisters and the Gladiator sequel could be pretty cool as well.

Overall, I just keep thinking of this year as a big reset/palette cleanser, with 2025 looking to be a massive return to form and what feels like the beginning of a new blockbuster era.
TCTTS
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veryfuller said:

The other Deadpool movies didn't even break $500 million, so I don't think 3 will reach the 1 billion mark.

Despicable Me 4 and Joker 2 have the best shots, just because they are follow ups to billion dollar movies. Inside Out 2 could do it if its good (the first made $850 million).

But, I'm on team none of them make it happen.

As I've said before, Deadpool 3 is a very different movie from the last two. It's way more massive, taking way bigger swings, with all kinds of crazy cameos, not to mention the Wolverine factor. In a down year for superhero movies, it has the chance to really stand out. If it's good, I guarantee it does a billion.
veryfuller
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I mean, I agree that is a good argument FOR it doing well. There is also a pretty compelling argument that tying it into the MCU right now is a negative, and that it may actually do worse than its predecessors because people are kind of over the multiverse stuff and this is doubling down on all that in a massive way.

I could buy either of those and perhaps once we see a trailer and see how people buy-in or don't we will have a better idea of which way this movie is heading.
Brian Earl Spilner
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To say it's guaranteed is just silly. It's the third in a series that's never broken $1B.
TCTTS
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I said IF it's good. All the cameos, Jackman back as Wolverine, Taylor Swift, etc obviously won't matter if it's a bad movie. But if it's fun/even halfway good, it makes a billion. Doesn't matter what the last two movies did.

Ha, for the record, this is the third year in a row you've pushed back on a big summer prediction I've made, that I ended up being right about. A year out from Top Gun: Maverick I said it was going to be one of the top three movies of not just the summer, but the year. Yet you said no way, especially since you hadn't even seen the first one at the time. And then a year out from Barbie I was telling anyone who would listen that it was going to be a massive hit, but you (and a bunch of others) thought I was crazy.

Now I'm telling you Deadpool 3 likely makes a billion, and here we are yet again.

We'll see who's right in just a few months…
Brian Earl Spilner
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You said it was guaranteed to do it, not likely.

I think it's nowhere near guaranteed, regardless of quality.
TCTTS
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"If it's good, I guarantee it does a billion."

That's the exact sentence I typed. Clearly, I'm not guaranteeing a billion no matter what. For the third time now, I'm saying that as long it's not a turd, it does a billion. Hence my use of "likely" in another sentence.
Brian Earl Spilner
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You guaranteed it, how is that not saying it's a guarantee?

Lol

I'm saying even with your qualifier, that's a ridiculous thing to guarantee.

Like you said, we shall see.
TCTTS
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I'm sorry you're unable to grasp such ridiculously simple concept. I honestly don't know how I could be any more clear.
 
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