Again, it just so happens to be the latest movie in an unprecedented trend. Trend being the keyword. I'm not "spiking the ball" on this movie, specifically. I haven't even seen it yet. Starting with Quantumania in February, though, we've never seen so many franchise/superhero movies bomb like this month after month, with this one just so happening to be the one to really underline what's going on, considering its astronomical budget (in no world should an Indiana Jones movie cost $295M), Cannes rollout, etc.

Bad superhero movies are bombing (Quantumania, Flash).

Bad, long-in-the-tooth, "modern" franchises are bombing (Fast & Furious, at least domestically)

And now, "bad" (at least perception-wise) legacy nostalgia sequels are bombing (Indy).

That basically covers the three major franchise food groups, so now, this weekend, the "panic" button is officially being pushed, and hopefully studios are finally getting the message that they can't just keep churning this stuff out without the movies actually being good/truly worthy of audience's time and money (again, not calling out Indy specifically, but the trend it's a part of).

Ok. Audiences are tired of big budget, CGI, repetitive crap. So when is The Feather Thief coming out?

Kind of crazy that both Warner Bros' and Disney's two biggest failures of the year released two weeks apart...

With a 130M Global opening & mixed audience reception, it’s unlikely that #IndianaJones gets even 380M+ at the #BoxOffice. With a 329M production budget +100M marketing campaign, #DialOfDestiny could post 230M+ in theatrical losses, #Disney’s biggest financial disaster in 2023.😬 pic.twitter.com/IGXZDrVjgJ

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) July 2, 2023

Mission: Impossible 7 is for the "Movies are back, baby!" crowd--the execs who have been waiting since Top Gun: Maverick for the next victory lap and who are holding fast to the belief that franchises and stars, no matter how old or aging, are still a viable path forward. 2/

— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) July 2, 2023

And Oppenheimer is for the romantics: The people (raises hand) who want to believe that a studio handing a first-tier director a pile of money to take a big adult crazy swing at something remains a chance worth taking. 4/

— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) July 2, 2023

I started working on Pictures at a Revolution 20 years ago. I don't think any moment since then has resembled the pre-revolution crisis as much as this one does. Bigger, longer, more bloated movies, most of which are lesser versions of what worked 20 years ago... 6/

— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) July 2, 2023

...but this time, I'm not sure what it leads to, only that the business cannot go on like this indefinitely, so it's going to give way to SOMETHING. Dark times! Have a great long weekend, everyone! /end

— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) July 2, 2023

Dark times, yes, but also exciting times as well. I definitely think the movie industry will come out of this for the better.

TCTTS said:

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Dark times, yes, but also exciting times as well. I definitely think the movie industry will come out of this for the better.

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I read the Vulture (I think?) article about streaming that was posted not long ago and found it very insightful. I don't remember it perfectly but I feel like it was entirely focused on streaming shows. IMO, while there are some great shows on TV they're very much outweighed by mediocre ones.

That said, in your opinion is there any correlation between what's happening in TV these days and the mediocre quality of movies? In other words are any of the contributing factors the same between the issues plaquing both industries.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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TCTTS said:

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Dark times, yes, but also exciting times as well. I definitely think the movie industry will come out of this for the better.

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I read the Vulture (I think?) article about streaming that was posted not long ago and found it very insightful. I don't remember it perfectly but I feel like it was entirely focused on streaming shows. IMO, while there are some great shows on TV they're very much outweighed by mediocre ones.

That said, in your opinion is there any correlation between what's happening in TV these days and the mediocre quality of movies? In other words are any of the contributing factors the same between the issues plaquing both industries.

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I think it's all connected in that studios are simply trying to make as much content as they can, as cheaply as they can, at a rate never seen before, much of it depending on IP in ways that are far too lopsided, across both film and TV. And now we've finally reached an inflection point. The quality of franchise fare is dipping theatrically due to the studios' over dependence on it, and audiences are finally getting tired of it, at the exact same time the streaming bubble has popped, the WGA is on strike, etc. It's all one big web connected in multiple ways, much of it due to and exasperated by the pandemic as well, and 2023 is the year it's all coming to a head. And yes, it sucks, but like I said earlier, I think it will ultimately lead to a landscape that is much more stable, creative, original, etc. Studios won't rush franchise far as much, they'll figure out how to make money on streaming (by making fewer shows and depending more on ads), and this massive transition, across multiple fronts, will reach a new equilibrium. At least that's what I hope happens.

TCTTS said:

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FL_Ag1998 said:

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TCTTS said:

---

Dark times, yes, but also exciting times as well. I definitely think the movie industry will come out of this for the better.

---

I read the Vulture (I think?) article about streaming that was posted not long ago and found it very insightful. I don't remember it perfectly but I feel like it was entirely focused on streaming shows. IMO, while there are some great shows on TV they're very much outweighed by mediocre ones.

That said, in your opinion is there any correlation between what's happening in TV these days and the mediocre quality of movies? In other words are any of the contributing factors the same between the issues plaquing both industries.

---

I think it's all connected in that studios are simply trying to make as much content as they can, as cheaply as they can, at a rate never seen before, much of it depending on IP in ways that are far too lopsided, across both film and TV. And now we've finally reached an inflection point. The quality of franchise fare is dipping theatrically due to the studios' over dependence on it, and audiences are finally getting tired of it, at the exact same time the streaming bubble has popped, the WGA is on strike, etc. It's all one big web connected in multiple ways, much of it due to and exasperated by the pandemic as well, and 2023 is the year it's all coming to a head. And yes, it sucks, but like I said earlier, I think it will ultimately lead to a landscape that is much more stable, creative, original, etc. Studios won't rush franchise far as much, they'll figure out how to make money on streaming (by making fewer shows and depending more on ads), and this massive transition, across multiple fronts, will reach a new equilibrium. At least that's what I hope happens.

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Thanks, and that all makes sense. Its stuff I've abstractly considered but you elaborated and explained what I've been trying to put my finger on. When I think about it Hollywood has been relying so heavily on established IP since Harry Potter (at least in my mind that was the start) and that's been two decades. No wonder I feel so unenthused to go see the vast majority of the movies they're putting out nowadays....it all just feels so redundant and unoriginal.

Hollywood needs to revert back to the early 2000's format of CBM making. Budgets should not balloon past $150-185M max.

The breakeven point should not be unattainable in today's climate.

Sell the story, not the spectacle. pic.twitter.com/F0u8rD7S3Y

— Nick Zednik (@NickZednik) July 2, 2023

TCTTS said:

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Kind of crazy that both Warner Bros' and Disney's two biggest failures of the year released two weeks apart...

With a 130M Global opening & mixed audience reception, it’s unlikely that #IndianaJones gets even 380M+ at the #BoxOffice. With a 329M production budget +100M marketing campaign, #DialOfDestiny could post 230M+ in theatrical losses, #Disney’s biggest financial disaster in 2023.😬 pic.twitter.com/IGXZDrVjgJ

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) July 2, 2023

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GOOD!!

how about Hollywood comes up with an original idea for a movie?

What was the first movie to kick off all this recent nostalgia bait? Was it the Force Awakens?

I'm genuinely surprised that Indy isn't doing well but I guess they already dusted off all these old characters in ~2004. So it's not even like it's that novel to see Old Indy and hear the music one more time.

Tron Legacy

Actually, ironically, you might credit Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

I'd argue that Live Free or Die Hard (2007) was the first, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) made it a thing, and then yeah, Tron Legacy (2010) truly started the craze, as it literally bore the moniker "legacy sequel," that would then be used as the term for all these nostalgia plays where the hero/actor comes back after a long period of time away.

You could maybe also throw Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) in there.

Rocky Balboa maybe?

Good call. That was 2006, so right in the middle of some of these others.

That was 06? Wow, I'm old and have no concept of time any more.

I think you're on the money with T3 then

Some interesting picks and you're all probably right. Arnold was old for T3 but not washed up and largely out of work. I'm thinking of like, dusting off Linda Hamilton for T6: Dark Fate, or this feeling that everyone needs to be given a proper ride off into the sunset (even if they got that in their last appearance).

I guess there's your "legacy sequels" like T6 and Indy 5, and then there's your "they need a proper goodbye!" films like Logan. Somewhere between the two is Top Gun Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, etc. Bringing back anyone who is still alive for bonus nostalgia points.

Edit: Days of Future Past is another one. A "new meets old" crossover, where you thought you'd never see some of these characters again but now here they are. Force Awakens would do that again 1 year later, but DoFP in 2014 is still an important one.

Looks like Insidious is on track to beat out Indy in its second weekend. Both around the $26-28M range.

Make that $31M+ for Insidious. Bet it climbs even higher. Pulling away now.

Madmarttigan said:

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What's funny to me is the budgets for these movies keeps getting bigger but somehow the CGI is dropping in a lot of scenes. Some of it is really good and some of it is a step back in time. Very weird.

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From some articles on Disney/Marvel from a few months ago, the issue isn't the capability of the CGI but lots of last minute changes. The lack of time forces things to be accepted that are below the capabilities of the artists and computers

I bet the Rock is thinking Black Adam's box office doesn't look so bad now, eh Warner?

Between The Flash, the latest Shazam, and Black Adam it's not been a great run for the studio. At least they didn't put out Indy 5 too.

$16M opening day for Dead Reckoning.

Fallout did $23M, but for a Tuesday, that's pretty damn good.

I saw something today that said somehow Elemental continues to chug along and may actually make a profit thanks to the International market and decent legs over a month since its release. I thought this one was dead in the water

#MissionImpossibleDeadReckoning had soft 8.3M THU at US #BoxOffice, -2.4% drop from Pure WED Opening Day(-46.4% from WED incl previews)
23.8M 2-day cume prior to FRI!#MI7 starring #TomCruise’ll need all help from positive WOM to hit industry’s 90M-100M 5-day opening projections! pic.twitter.com/Td8AdO5AbD

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) July 14, 2023

Probably won't end up being much of a hit. There's just way too much competition, and losing IMAX next weekend won't help.

Damn I feared that may happen. As successful as these movies have been, they aren't necessarily huge. Adored by fans, critically acclaimed, but not record-setters. For whatever reason.

Dead Reckoning will have legs, and will have all of August, and even September to play as well. It's also rumored to be going back to IMAX after Oppenheimer, even if in a limited IMAX capacity (meaning potentially sharing screens with Blue Beetle or whoever). It'll be just fine.