***** The Box Office Thread *****

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TyHolden
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Is John Wick more popular than Neo now???
Brian Earl Spilner
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Now? Easily.

But Matrix at its peak in 2003 was massive. Marvel level basically.
The Porkchop Express
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First Matrix came out of nowhere to make $171 million in 1999, that's $309 million in today's money for a property with no back story, no comic tie-in, nothing - that's all-time legendary.

Sequel in 2003 opened to $91 million, and crested to $281 million, that's $459 million in today's money.

Third one, frankly tanked by comparison, released just 6 months later and only made $139 million ($227 million in today's dollars.)

With inflation a factor, very few movies have done what the first Matrix did, make funny money with no inherent tie in. The main ones to do so in the last 25-30 years have been mostly animated stuff, but even that you can tab as being a hit because it's Disney or because it's Pixar.


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Brian Earl Spilner
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For some reason what I most remember about the hype buildup for Reloaded was my local Cinemark had all the "Coming Soon" posters taken up by the different character posters of Neo, Trinity, Morpheus, the ghost twins, etc. I'd never seen them fill the entire wall with one movie.
The Porkchop Express
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

For some reason what I most remember about the hype buildup for Reloaded was my local Cinemark had all the "Coming Soon" posters taken up by the different character posters of Neo, Trinity, Morpheus, the ghost twins, etc. I'd never seen them fill the entire wall with one movie.
I remember that we confirmed that my brother had narcolepsy when he fell asleep during the freeway chase scene.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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$26M Saturday for JW4, putting it at $55M going into Sunday.

Weekend projections might be getting bumped to $75M, we'll see.
Brian Earl Spilner
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$72.5M estimate
Brian Earl Spilner
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Already upped to $73.5M.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner
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TCTTS
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Seems like it's gonna be close for sure. I think both do $30M+.
TCTTS
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Five $30M+ openings in March would be insane. Technically six if you count Wick twice.
The Porkchop Express
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Scream is going to pass M3gan for third place in the 2023 box office in the next couple of days. It will probably hit $100 million by the end of the current weekend, or surely in the middle of next week. That means that this Scream is also about to become the highest grossing movie of the franchise (not accounting for inflation)

The original made $103 million, #2 made $101 million and the current one is up to $92 million through Wednesday. I was going to say I can't think of a franchise where the sixth or later movie of the franchise ends up being the biggest one at the box office, but then I considered that the 7th Star Wars movie and the seventh Fast & Furious movie both did so, thus, never mind.

John Wick will also hit $100 million this weekend, possibly on Friday, which would be its 7th day of release.

John Wick III made it to $100 million in 10 days, and the first 2 never made it to $100 million at all!

I don't even want to talk about Shazam 2 because I'm such a big fan of Zach Levi, but I will tell you that after it made a surprise $1 million on Tuesday, it was back down to $672,000 on Wednesday and is at $48 million in 13 days. It is barely ahead of the COVID/train wreck Wonder Woman 1984 ($46.8 million) but still behind another COVID era movie that tanked because of outbreaks, and is going to have to limp up another $9 million to pass The Suicide Squad, which was released on HBO/MAX and in the theaters in the summer of 2021 with COVID still rampant. Yikes.

TCTTS
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Hell of a freakin' month.

What a comeback for theaters.
Brian Earl Spilner
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~$28M for JW4's second weekend. Bit of a steeper fall than I expected based on the super high audience scores, but I guess losing all premium theaters to D&D hurt quite a bit.
The Porkchop Express
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The Numbers estimates D&D made $38.5 million this weekend, a massive opening for a film based on a dice game I first played when I was 8 years old in 1982. Numbers (unofficial); $5.6 million Thursday previews, $15.4 million Friday, $13.1 million Saturday, $10 million Sunday.

John Wick 4 estimated at $28.2 million for the weekend to rise to $122.8 million in 2 weeks. John Wick 3 made $171 million, so that should be fairly easy to move past over the next month or two. Keanu Reeves now has 8 movies under his belt to make $100 million.

His Only Son, which I'm guessing is about Jesus, made $5.3 million in its opening weekend in just 1,920 theaters - that's half as many as D&D or John Wick.

Scream VI made $5.3 million as well and is up to $98.228 million, and will bust $100 million this week.

Creed III made $5m and is up to $148.58 million. This happened a while back, but it's the #1 movie of the Rocky franchise now (no inflation), surpassing Rocky IV's $127.8 million in 1985. Man, am I old.

Shazam 2 limped to $4.72 million and is at $53.3 million.

Kylosaur Ren made $1.85million and is at $30.5 million.

Antman 3: $1.23 million for the weekend $212million. They need to crap another $4 million out of this movie in order to get it past Ant-Man #2.

Brian Earl Spilner
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From Deadline:

Walking away from the energy of the Super Mario Bros world premiere last night in downtown Los Angeles, you can feel a huge tidal wave is coming in. This is par for the course: Before the weekend of a truly big mammoth movie, moviegoers curb their spending. Right now, the 5-day on Super Mario Bros is $125M, but there are crazy numbers out there, and Universal is trying to wrangle expectations.

Illumination/Universal's Minions: Rise of Gru posted the best opening for an animated movie during the Covid era, with $107M 3-day, $123M 4-day. The biggest opening ever for an animated movie belongs to Disney/Pixar's Incredibles 2 with $182.6M.
The Porkchop Express
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D&D made a solid $2.776 million on its first Monday to get to $39.982 million in 4 days. Wick 4 made $2.278 million and is up to $125 million on its run. Scream VI needs $1.2 million to hit $100 million and Creed III needs about $950,000 to reach $150 million.

Ant-Man 3 dropped about 2,000 theaters over the weekend and made just $135,453. It is at $212.16 million, It trails Ant-Man 2 by $4.5 million. No MCU sequel has ever made less money than Antman 3 except Thor: The Dark World which made $206.3 million, but was still a $25 million improvement over the original Thor.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Good start for Mario in China.

Quote:

In the lead so far for Asian markets on Wednesday, ever-mercurial China launched Mario to $4.95M at No. 3 during the Qing Ming festival. Mario set the biggest opening day for a Hollywood animation since the start of the pandemic in 2020 as well as the second-biggest opening day for a studio title in 2023. Today's numbers are above Minions: The Rise of Gru and The Secret Life of Pets (+42% and +43%, respectively, on a Friday); and in line with Aladdin and Incredibles 2. Maoyan has given Mario a 9.4 score from audiences; the best for a Hollywood animation in the last five years.
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Good start for Mario in China.

Quote:

In the lead so far for Asian markets on Wednesday, ever-mercurial China launched Mario to $4.95M at No. 3 during the Qing Ming festival. Mario set the biggest opening day for a Hollywood animation since the start of the pandemic in 2020 as well as the second-biggest opening day for a studio title in 2023. Today's numbers are above Minions: The Rise of Gru and The Secret Life of Pets (+42% and +43%, respectively, on a Friday); and in line with Aladdin and Incredibles 2. Maoyan has given Mario a 9.4 score from audiences; the best for a Hollywood animation in the last five years.

Jeez where has the year gone by. I can't believe it's already Qing Ming time again!
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Brian Earl Spilner
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Quote:

Illumination/Nintendo/Universal's The Super Mario Bros Movie doesn't need a mushroom to get bigger, it just organically is. Out of the gate Wednesday, sans Tuesday previews, the feature adaptation of the classic game is looking at $26 million, for what's translating into a $86.2M three-day total and $127.5M Wednesday-through-Sunday haul. Interestingly, even though its opening day was a Friday, Paramount/Sega's Sonic the Hedgehog 2 had a $26.3M first day a year ago (that included Thursday previews). That film currently holds the three-day opening record for a video game feature adaptation with $72.1M, a benchmark Super Mario Bros is looking to squash.

Should those figures hold up, Super Mario Bros will rep the second-best five-day debut (Wednesday through Sunday) for an Illumination title after 2013's Despicable Me 2, which did $143M.
TCTTS
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$127M five-day total still feels low to me. I think it's over $130M for sure, and maybe even closer to $150M.
Brian Earl Spilner
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I agree. I think there's gonna be a lot more walk up and matinee business than anticipated.
The Porkchop Express
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I agree. I think there's gonna be a lot more walk up and matinee business than anticipated.
They released it perfectly, 99% of kids are off Friday and Monday.
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The Porkchop Express
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DP from the Mario Bros thread -

$31.7 million domestic debut on a Wednesday. That is some FIRE.

11th biggest Wednesday ever, and every single one that's ahead of it was either in the summer or at Christmas.

Second biggest Wednesday in animation history. Despicable Me 2 made $35 million the day before the 4th of July in 2013.


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Brian Earl Spilner
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Wow. That was a big jump with the midnight showings.

No pun intended.
Brian Earl Spilner
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TCTTS said:

$127M five-day total still feels low to me. I think it's over $130M for sure, and maybe even closer to $150M.


Already up to $141M. Great call.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Wow. That was a big jump with the midnight showings.

No pun intended.


That Wednesday number apparently does NOT include previews. That jump was purely from Wednesday over-performing.
Brian Earl Spilner
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The Porkchop Express
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Mario passed 65's entire 27-day box office total in about 30 hours.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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From reddit, here's all the domestic grosses from Illumination as a comp. Fairly good shot Mario takes the #1 spot. I'd say #4 is the minimum.

Brian Earl Spilner
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Scream VI officially hit the $100M domestic mark. First Scream movie to do it since Scream 2 in 1997.
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I'll do a fun (for me at least) tracker of the Top 15 movies of 2023 day by day here as a film about an Italian plumber wreaks havoc the next few days.

As of Wednesday, April 5

1. Ant-Man 3: $212.4 m
2. Creed III: $149.9 m
3. John Wick IV: $128.2 m
4. Scream VI: $99.91 m
5. M3GAN: $95.0 m
6. Cocaine Bear: $63.9 m
7. Shazam 2: $54.7 m
8. Jesus Revolution: $51.3 m
9. D&D: Honor Among Thieves: $45.5 m
10. 80 for Brady: $39.3 m
11. Knock at the Cabin: $35.4 m
12. Missing: $32.5 m
13. Plane: $32.1 m
14. The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $31.7 m
15. 65: $31.0 m
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