Black Panther 2 made $2.848 million on Friday to crack $400 million domestic in its 29th day of release. It's up to $401,558,778 for its run, passing Frozen for 42nd all time. It will be up into the top 40 by the end of the weekend and by this time next week should have surpassed Dr. Strange 2 for #2 for 2022, at least temporarily until Avatr 2 rolls by that figure in a couple of weeks.


Your Marvel $400 million club now stands at:

Endgame, 2019, $858m
Spiderman: No Way Home, 2021, $814m
Black Panther, 2018, $700m
Infinity War, 2018, $678m
The Avengers, 2012, $623m
Age of Ultron, 2015, $459m
Captain Marvel, 2019, $426m
Dr. Strange 2, 2022, $411m
Iron Man 3, 2013, $408.992m
Captain America Civil War, 2016, $408.084m
Black Panther 2, 2022, $401m.

Top Gun: Maverick made $1 million in its first week back in theaters (1,864 screens). It is now up above $718 million for its run.

Avatar tacked on a very impressive $24.7 million in its 3 week re-release back in October/November to reach $785 million.

Neither moved up on the all-time clicker, but it just makes higher hurdles for the new Avatar to aspire. It opens in 5 days.

Even though I am curious what the opening weekend will be, I'm almost more interested to see what the dropoffs will be in weekends 2, 3, and beyond. That's where James Cameron really makes his money.

We shall see.

Definitely. Even Endgame and The Force Awakens tailed off after a month or so. I can't think of any movie other than Maverick that has kept churning out big numbers week after week since Avatar game out.

$11.1 million this weekend for Black Panther 2. It is up to $409.81 million and 35th all time. Over the weekend, it passed Frozen, Transformers 2, Jurassic Park, Jumanji 1, Spider-Man, The Hunger Games, Civil War, and Iron Man 3.

It is $1.5 million behind Dr. Strange 2 for #2 this year (for now), and about $13 million shy of the top 30 all-time.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Alright, what's y'all's predictions for Avatar: Way of Water, domestic and worldwide?

This is what I'm gonna go with.

Domestic:
Opening Weekend: $175M
Total: $730M (#4 between Avatar and Maverick)

Worldwide:
Opening Weekend: $500M
Total: $1.85B (#7 behind No Way Home)

I think China will be a pretty huge factor here. If the COVID restrictions prevent most people from going out, those WW numbers would go way down.

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China has almost done a 180 on COVID restrictions the past day or two, kind of crazy actually. James Cameron must be popping bottles tonight.

I'm gonna increase go ahead and up my worldwide prediction to $2B+.

Black Panther 2 dipped under $1 million on a daily basis for the first time in its run on Monday, but still cleared $903,000. It's less than $500,000 behind Dr. Strange 2 for the #2 spot at the box this year domestically.

Overseas, Alan Grant and Ian Malcolm apparently held a gun to a theater owner's head and forced people to keep going to watch Jurassic World Dominion, because it tipped the scales and surpassed $1 billion total at
$1,001,136,080. It's the second movie to pass $1 billion this year. Dr. Strange ($955m) and MInions ($939m) came up just short. BP 2 is currently at $769b, having recently surpassed Thor 4, and less than a million behind The Batman.

Dominion is the 51st movie to crack $1 billion worldwide. Not sure BP2 has the legs to make it, but Avatar will rocket past the mark in just a few weeks.

Black Panther 2 bounced back to $1.144 million on Tuesday, officially surpassing Dr. Strange 2 as the #2 movie of the year with $411,993,275. It reached that total in its 33rd day of release.

Dr. Strange 2 was at the box office for 98 days to make $411,331,607. It broke $400 million its 41st day, Black Panther made it in its 29th day.

Black Panther 2 is now #34 all-time domestic, and was due to push past Wonder Woman on Wednesday, with a great shot to also surpass Toy Story 3 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom by the end of the weekend.

Avatar 2's Thursday night numbers should hit mid-day Friday.

Let's see how many days it takes Avatar to surpass Black Adam's global tally of $389M.

I'm betting by around Saturday evening.

On Avatar Eve (Wednesday), Black Panther 2 made $900,000 to bypass Wonder Woman for 33rd place all-time domestic at $412,902,334.

It will likely jump both Toy Story 3 and JW: Fallen Kingdom this weekend, but will be a faint memory at the top of the box office as Avatar 2 storms in.

Here are some #s to consider for Avatar 2, although most of us believe it will be the long-term records that it goes after, not the big-top first day / first weekend ones. Remember that the Thursday night previews roll into the Friday totals, even though plenty of them start before midnight now.


Top Opening Days: The record is Avengers: Endgame at $157.5 million in 2019. Just 5 movies have broken $100 million on their first day - Endgame, No Way Home, The Force Awakens, Infinity War, and the Last Jedi
The first Avatar made $26.75 million its opening day, good for 134th, almost exactly 13 years ago (12/18/2009).

Top Opening Weekends: Endgame has this one as well, a staggering $357 million in 2019. It's a real wonder it didn't pass The Force Awakens for all-time domestic. I guess it's because of how much build-up you had to know about to really enjoy it. Regardless, that's almost $100 million more than #2 No Way Home ($260 million in 2021). Only 8 films have banked $200 million on opening weekend - the 5 from above plus Jurassic World, The Avengers, and Black Panther. Avatar 1 made $77 million on opening weekend, good for 113th.

Top Opening Week: Endgame made an insane $473.89 million on its opening week. The Force Awakens made $390.9 million, and No Way Home and Infinity War also passed $300 million. Avatar made $137 million its first week, good for 66th. It's interesting to see how it keeps moving up in the record books as the time expands based on that sensational word of mouth it had in '09-'10.

Fastest to $XXX: Endgame based on its totals, was the fastest to every milestone from $100m to $650m. The Force Awakens was the fastest to $700m-$900m, and the only one to reach $900m.

Thanks for these reports. Well done!

The lack of frontloading is an early sign that is is going to leg out just like Cameron always does. Deadline says only 53% of ticket presales have been for opening day (Thurs/Fri), vs the usual superhero fare which is 70%+. And 23% are for after opening weekend.

This movie is more about seeing it in a premium format than being among the first to see it.

WW opening weekend is projected around $500M, but this thing is just getting started.

Official stuff from Deadline.com

The Way of Water made $17 million domestic in its Thursday previews. That's 36th all-time, tied with Hunger Games: MockingJay: Part I: The New Beginning: Katniss Everdeen and the Deathly Hallows

By comparison, Endgame made $60 million on Thursday night, The Force Awakens $57 million, and No Way Home $50 million.

This year, Dr. Strange 2 made $36 million, Thor 4 made $29 million, Wakanda Forever $28 million, The Batman $21.6 million, Maverick $19.3 million, and JW: Dominion, $18 m.

The Thursdays used to be midnight only, but have steadily moved earlier and earlier. They are rolled into Friday's one-day box office.

A further hardcore look at the numbers from Deadline for opening night

Critics on Rotten Tomatoes may have simmered to 79% fresh, however, audience reactions as polled by Comscore/Screen Engine's Posttrak are through the roof at 5 stars, 91% and 82% definite recommend. They're numbers any studio would crave. Audience make-up was 89% general, 5% parents, and 6% kids under 12. Men turned out a bit more than women at 59% to 41%. The 18-34 crowd repped 61% of all ticket buyers last night. Those over 45 were 14%. Those under 25 repped 41%. That latter number is potent given how some were concerned how older skewing this property would be. Again, the older Avatar fans will find their way to this movie with the right seat, right format they desire. No one wants to rush to see this sequel and be stuck in a 10 A.M. front seat in 2D. Diversity turnout was 35% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 15% Asian, and 13% Black. These demos will change throughout the weekend.

Black Adam held steady with a whopping $50,000 in 2,143 theaters on Thursday. That's $23/theater for you and me.

Unfortunately Gerard Butler's Plane opens in January, which might stop this movie right it its tracks.

I actually think M3GAN (out 1/6/20223) will be the movie to knock off Avatar. Maaaaybe Puss in Boots.

I saw Avatar last night in a regular 2D format and there were only 9 other people there. All the premium formats were sold out (at least the good seats in NYC), so I thought I would get a screening in now and then another one in a couple weeks. Very excited to see how the legs in this one do. It's longer, but I feel like it was better than the first one.

Quote:

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I actually think M3GAN (out 1/6/20223) will be the movie to knock off Avatar.

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This is the real threat to Avatar. NSFW

It's not likely, but I don't know how the legs on Avatar will be with the 3+ hour runtime. I hope it makes a bunch of money and we can secure 4 and 5 come out because I want more of this world.

But that little doll might do some damage! I am actually excited to see that one.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Official stuff from Deadline.com

The Way of Water made $17 million domestic in its Thursday previews. That's 36th all-time, tied with Hunger Games: MockingJay: Part I: The New Beginning: Katniss Everdeen and the Deathly Hallows

By comparison, Endgame made $60 million on Thursday night, The Force Awakens $57 million, and No Way Home $50 million.

This year, Dr. Strange 2 made $36 million, Thor 4 made $29 million, Wakanda Forever $28 million, The Batman $21.6 million, Maverick $19.3 million, and JW: Dominion, $18 m.

The Thursdays used to be midnight only, but have steadily moved earlier and earlier. They are rolled into Friday's one-day box office.

A further hardcore look at the numbers from Deadline for opening night

Critics on Rotten Tomatoes may have simmered to 79% fresh, however, audience reactions as polled by Comscore/Screen Engine's Posttrak are through the roof at 5 stars, 91% and 82% definite recommend. They're numbers any studio would crave. Audience make-up was 89% general, 5% parents, and 6% kids under 12. Men turned out a bit more than women at 59% to 41%. The 18-34 crowd repped 61% of all ticket buyers last night. Those over 45 were 14%. Those under 25 repped 41%. That latter number is potent given how some were concerned how older skewing this property would be. Again, the older Avatar fans will find their way to this movie with the right seat, right format they desire. No one wants to rush to see this sequel and be stuck in a 10 A.M. front seat in 2D. Diversity turnout was 35% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 15% Asian, and 13% Black. These demos will change throughout the weekend.

Black Adam held steady with a whopping $50,000 in 2,143 theaters on Thursday. That's $23/theater for you and me.

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I would think the early rotten tomato scores are going to be high this early since I would assume that most people that have seen it at this point are fanboys who are going to love it whether or not it's actually a good movie.

I'd like to see a "tickets sold" comparison, not sure if that's even a thing, but movies like this get a boost since most people are paying for the 3D/imax tickets which can cost 2-3x what a standard movie would cost.

Interesting to see what it ends up doing.

People always say fanboys will love a movie, but that's not really the case. Star Wars fanboys were probably the hardest on the sequel trilogy, and TROS in particular.

You could make the argument a fanboy's expectations would be harder to match.

Star Wars has 42 years of history behind it. People's expectations vary wildly, and when something's been popular that long, plenty of people are going to find ways to hate every film that comes out.

Avatar has a pretty short history comparatively. 3 or 4 sequels in, I'm sure it'll have a very nice toxic fan base all of its own.

Not to derail, but let's not say that every fan who disliked TROS is toxic.

Really interesting thing happening with Avatar. Been seeing more and more stories of people (Reddit, 4chan) not being able to get tickets to a premium 3D showing, but the standard showings are either mostly empty or half full at best.

Seems like a lot of people are going to wait out the crowds for the best showings and skip the 2D completely. I wonder if it'll start losing some of those smaller screens due to that. On the other hand it means a lot of premium upcharges.

But it also means that the opening is smaller than initial projections. Weekend forecast was lowered to $150M.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Not to derail, but let's not say that every fan who disliked TROS is toxic.

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Where did I say that? I said every film that comes out.

Seemed to be what you were implying. I was reading between the lines.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Seemed to be what you were implying. I was reading between the lines.

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You certainly were. I don't care what your opinion on TROS is. Just like you don't care about what I think about Avatar. If you don't want to derail the thread, then don't.

Sorry for misinterpreting then. I agree that Star Wars fans can be toxic. But you made it sound like any SW movie which got a bad reception was solely due to toxic fans.

Weekend lowered to $130M.

RIP DCEU 2013-2023

11 movies released, one made it to $400 million (Wonder Woman, 2017, $412 m)

Three others cracked $300 million
Aquaman $335m in 2018
Dawn of Justice $330m in 2016
Suicide Squad $325m in 2016

Two others made between $200m-$299m
Man of Steel $291m in 2013
Justice League $229m in 2017

Black Adam is at $167m, Shazam made it to $140m.

Birds of Prety ($84m, 2020), Wonder Woman 1984 ($46m, 2020) and The Suicide Squad ($55m, 2021) were all impacted by COVID or streaming.

Aquaman 2, Shazam 2, Blue Beetle, and the Trainwreck Flash all to come in 2023.

In that same time span of 10 years, the MCU had 10 movies crack $400 million.

The Numbers reports that Avatar 2 made $53 million at the box office on Friday- that's a combination of Thursday previews and the actual Friday box.

That's good for the 70th biggest opening day in domestic history, just ahead of Captain Marvel and slightly behind Deadpool 2. It's the sixth biggest opening of 2022, and right ahead of the movie that its box office hopes to be most comparable - Top Gun: Maverick, which started with $52 million and made $718 million.

The first Avatar made $26.7 million on its opening Friday in 2009. Friday's total exceded by about $800,000 the first 2 days of the 2009 Avatar release.

That movie hit the following milestones in the following # of days

$100m 5 days
$200m 10 days
$300m 15 days
$400m 23 days
$500m 32 days
$600m 47 days
$700m 72 days

Black Panther 2 made $1.149 million on Friday to surpass Toy Store 3 for 32nd place all time at $415 million.

I'll be very interested to see how it does throughout the week as well, with holiday breaks coming up.

Thanks for these detailed updates btw.

$45M Saturday, which is -15% from its $53M Friday. For comparison, Wakanda Forever fell -33% on its Saturday. A very good hold.

From Deadline:

That's the best Friday-to-Saturday hold for a year-end tentpole release of late beating Rise of Skywalker (-47%), Force Awakens (-43%), Spider-Man: No Way Home (-39%), The Last Jedi (-39%), and Rogue One (-35%).

Top Gun: Maverick was floated as a comp pre-weekend given how it was a long-awaited sequel to a legacy film. Avatar 2's ease from Friday is even ahead of that Tom Cruise title which declined -27% between its first Friday and Saturday. Top Gun 2 had a 5.67x multiple off its 3-day opening of $126.7M and got to $718.7M.