The Porkchop Express said:

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why is it annoying?

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Annoying that they're pumping up box office numbers with it. I want Top Gun to pass them up. It's close right?

Also, would be really cool as TC mentioned to have Memorial Day and Labor Day have the same #1 movie.

It's close to passing Black Panther, No Way Home is more than $100 million ahead of it.

The Porkchop Express said:

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It's close to passing Black Panther, No Way Home is more than $100 million ahead of it.

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Ah I must have been off on my memory.

Regardless. Would be great to have Top Gun run on a rope between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Maverick regained the #1 spot at the box office on Saturday, making an estimated $2.6 million to outduel the DC League of Super Pets ($2.55m), Bullet Train ($2.38m), and Spiderman: No Way Home ($2.2 million)

This was on Maverick's 100th day of release. By comparison, Avatar made $879,000 on its 100th day of release.
Since it's a holiday weekend, The Numbers has gone ahead and projected Sunday and Monday's totals as well.

That includes another $1.8 million for Maverick on Sunday, and $1.5 million on Monday, which will see it hit $700 million, only the 6th film to do so domestically.

The actual #s won't be official until Tuesday, but The Numbers has it at $700,324,744 at the end of Labor Day, That will be enough to surpass Black Panther ($700,059,566) for 5th all time.

That will likely be the capstone for Maverick, since Avatar is 4th at $760 million.

It has also entered the top 20 domestic all time adjusted for inflation at #18. A complete list of that is here, , but I'll post the top 20 if you don't want to click. I know everyone always preaches Gone with the WInd, but the Numbers only counts its original release since it got released like 10-12 times for multiple decades.

Top 20 all-time domestic adjusted for inflation

1. Star Wars $1.51bn
2. Titanic $1.25bn
3. E.T. $1.24bn
4. The Force Awakens $1.01bn
5. Avatar $905m
6. The Empire Strikes Back $887m
7. Endgame $859m
8. Return of the Jedi $852m
9. Jurassic Park $842m
10. The Lion King (original) $833m
11. The Phantom Menace $828m
12. No Way Home $806m
13. Forrest Gump $737m
14. Raiders of the Lost Ark $728m
15. The Avengers $718m
16. Jurassic World $709m
17. Black Panther $704m
18. Top Gun: Maverick $700m
19. Close Encounters of the Third Kind $685m
20. Infinity War $683m

Inaccurate list, not just missing GWTW but Sound of Music as well, and E.T. ahead of Titanic.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross_adjusted/?adjust_gross_to=2022

Just saw that the Numbers doesn't count anything before 1977, for whatever reason, so yeah the whole top 20 is different pretty much. Black Panther is down in the 30's.

In the full list it just passed Thunderball for spot #32.

I've only seen 2 of the movies ahead of it, and I take Maverick over those 2 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

So, we're in the dregs of blockbuster releases for a while here.

Next up that would be expected to get into the $300 million range is Black Adam on October 21, so a good month away. Hope it's good. Feel like the Rock has been promoting it since I was in my 30s.

Black Panther 2 is November 11th
Avatar 2 is December 16th
and for the kids, Puss n Boots 2 is December 21st, taking nearly as long (11 years) to make as Avatar 2 because of all the underwater training that Antonio Banderas had to do. Will be really interesting to see how BA, BP2 and Avatar 2 shake out.

Here's an interesting one to look at, the changing face of the Top 10 year by year (domestic, not adjusted) since 2014, which is right before the slew of mega blockbusters - Star Wars, Avenger sequels, etc. came out. Watch how it changes.


End of 2014 Top 10
1. Avatar $760m
2. Titanic $659m
3. The Avengers $623m
4. The Dark Knight $534m
5. The Phantom Menace $474m
6. Star Wars $460m
7. The Dark Knight Rises $448m
8. Shrek 2 441m
9. ET $437m
10. Catching Fire: $424m

End of 2015 Top 10
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Avatar $760m
3. Titanic $659m
4. Jurassic World $653m
5. The Avengers $623m
6. The Dark Knight $534m
7. The Phantom Menace $474m
8. Star Wars $460m
9. Age of Ultron: $459m
10. The Dark Knight Rises: $448m

End of 2016 Top 10
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Avatar $760m
3. Titanic $659m
4. Jurassic World $653m
5. The Avengers $623m
6. The Dark Knight $534m
7. Rogue One $533m
8. Finding Dory $486m
9. The Phantom Menace $474m
10. Star Wars $460m

End of 2017 Top 10
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Avatar $760m
3. Titanic $659m
4. Jurassic World $653m
5. The Avengers $623m
6. The Last Jedi $620m
7. The Dark Knight $534m
8. Rogue One $533m
9. Beauty and the Beast $504m
10. Finding Dory $486m

End of 2018 Top 10
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Avatar $760m
3. Black Panther $700m
4. Infinity War: $678m
5. Titanic $659m
6. Jurassic World $653m
7. The Avengers $623m
8. The Last Jedi $620m
9. Incredibles 2: $608m
10. The Dark Knight $534m

End of 2019 Top 10
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Endgame $858m
3. Avatar $760m
4. Black Panther $700m
5 Infinity War: $678m
6. Titanic $659m
7. Jurassic World $653m
8. The Avengers $623m
9. The Last Jedi $620m
10. Incredibles 2: $608m


End of 2020 Top 10 - This space for rent
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Endgame $858m
3. Avatar $760m
4. Black Panther $700m
5. Infinity War: $678m
6. Titanic $659m
7. Jurassic World $653m
8. The Avengers $623m
9. The Last Jedi $620m
10. Incredibles 2: $608m


End of 2021
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Endgame $858m
3. No Way Home: $804m
4. Avatar $760m
5. Black Panther $700m
6. Infinity War: $678m
7. Titanic $659m
8. Jurassic World $653m
9. The Avengers $623m
10. The Last Jedi $620m

As of September 16, 2022
1. The Force Awakens $936m
2. Endgame $858m
3. No Way Home: $813m
4. Avatar $760m
5. Maverick: $706m
6. Black Panther $700m
7. Infinity War: $678m
8. Titanic $659m
9. Jurassic World $653m
10. The Avengers $623m

Catching Fire was 10th all-time in 2014, now it's 28th. In 2019, Frozen 2 made $477m, The Rise of Skywalker made $515m and The Lion King made $543m. In 2014, they would have ranked 4th, 6th, and 7th all-time. Instead none made the top 10, and Frozen II is barely in the Top 20 already at 19th.

Avatar lit it up with $3.325 million on Friday in its rerelease, good for second place behind Don't Worry Darling at $9.4 million. I'm excited to go on WIkipedia and read the plot of DWD before I get dragged by my wife to see it, so I can "predict" all the plot twists and seem like a genius.

On Box Office Mojo, it appears they are splitting Avatar into an original release and a re-release and not adding what it makes to the original total.

Maverick made another $460,000 on Friday, still in 2,000 theaters and up to $710.5 million domestic.

MInions 2 is now #55 all time at $364 million, edging past the Jungle Book. Thor Love and Thunder is 63rd with $343 million, passing The Two Towers on Friday.

All-time list includes all releases, as does the total shown up top in the movie's page.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW

You only see it broken down by releases if you're looking at the "By Release" section.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0499549/?ref_=bo_cso_table_1

#PS1 is in the in Top charts for the Global BO this weekend. The film managed to post $8.7 Mn+ Overseas from 15 Countries (Excludes India). pic.twitter.com/mq6nCuylRm

— AndhraBoxOffice.Com (@AndhraBoxOffice) October 3, 2022

Bumping the thread because I found it interesting.
And also an interesting (and interactive) graph to discuss:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/187069/north-american-box-office-gross-revenue-since-1980/



Interesting to see the trends in the industry, and also plot the points where various stars, movies, studios, influences, etc. caused inflection points.

What does the upward slope look like once the inventory of theatrically-releasable film supply starts to meet demand? Or will the demand shift to a different sub good?

Interesting to see the little plateau post-911, I guess a little expected....followed by the slight surge during the 2008 recession, and then the bouncing-like-a-basketball trend following it.

Finally a reasonably big movie is opening this weekend with The Rock's Black Adam, which I believe started production in June 1978.

The projections I read about have dropped it from $65-70 to $60m for opening weekend.

Among DC brand movies, that would put it about 11th all-time for opening weekends. Bats vs. Supes is #1 at $166 million. DC has had 7 movies make at least $100 million on opening weekend. If you look at DC's more recent run, that includes

The Batman $134m
Suicide Squad $133m
Man of Steel $116m
Wonder Woman $103m

In a perfect world for DC/The Rock success, they have another Aquaman on their hands, which made $67 million its opening weekend and wound up with an outstanding $335 million. But that was released a few days before Christmas, not in mid-October, so probably not.

Not sure what studio expectations are for Black Adam. 13 DC movies have made at least $200 million, and 8 have made at least $300 million. They released Joker around this time frame in 2019 and it exploded to $335 million.

As for Dwayne Johnson, this is definitely a turning point in his career for what he brings to the box office. He hasn't had many movies where he is The Main Guy, usually has co-stars of equal weight.

His top 5 movies are the 2 Jumanjis, where he is probably on equal popularity terms with Kevin Hart, Furious 7, which is a huge ensemble, Moana which was animated, and Furious 6.

His main stand-alone is San Andreas from 2015 which made a very strong $155 m domestic. And he was co-headliner in Hobbs and Shaw, which did $173m million in 2019. Also the star of Jungle Cruise which made $116 million last year despite also being on Disney +

Should be interestign to see how it does with virtually no big competition for a month until BP2

Black Adam cracked $100 million domestic over the weekend, reaching $111 million. That puts it into 10th place for 2022, and it will pass into 11th this week as it eases past Lightyear ($118 million) and Nope ($123 mllion) by the end of the week. This will be its last week without superhero competition, as Black Panther 2 opens November 11. You'd imagine it will have a small bump on Thanskgiving break and again on Christmas, but you've got some half-ass animated Disney movie rolling out on Thanksgiving weekend, then Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2in December.

So maybe it makes it to $175 million? $200 seems like a reach at this point. DC only has 13 movies ever hit $200 million plus. Unadjusted for inflation, Black Adam is currently 20th in DC gross, right between Green Lantern and SUperman II .

Black Adam won its third straight weekend to get into the top 10 for 2022.
It will be back down to #11 as soon as BP2 opens this weekend, but should have enough legs to get back into the top 10 again, and possibly hold onto a spot there for the whole year.

It made an estimated $19 million this weekend against very little competition to get up to $137.3 million
for its run. It should pass up #9 Uncharted ($148m) and #8 Elvis ($151m) at some point during the end of its run.

Wakanda Forever and Avatar will blow right by it in a matter of hours when they open, which would knock it back down to 10th.

Actually, scratch that, Puss n Boots 2 also comes out in December, so that will probably pass Black Adam as well.

Add those 3 releases to the list of films making $100m domestic and you get 17 movies to do that in 2022. That's up from 14 in 2021. 2020 not surprisingly only had 2 - the films that opened enough in advance of COVID to get there. The last "normal" year for movies, 2019, had 31 $100m makers by comparison.

Black Adam is now 18th (unadjusted) on the DC comic list for domestic gross. It should pass Shazam! this week and possibly get up Batman returns at $16 ($162 m), but probably not further.

It's a terribly unfair comparison due to inflation and such, but I'm going to mention it anway.

DC Brand (40 total films): 1 film over $500 million (TDK); 3 films over $400m (TDK, TDKR, Wonder Woman), 8 films over $300 million (TDK, TDKR, Wonder Woman, The Batman, Joker, Aquaman, BvsSOJ, Suicide Squad)

Marvel Brand (33 total films): 2 films over $800 million, 3 films over $700 million; 5 films over $600 million, 10 films over $400 million; 18 films over $300 million.

Black Adam would be second to last on domestic gross for Marvel, ahead of only the Incredible Hulk ($134 million).

Current 2022 standings worldwide:

First estimates for Thursday night #s for Black Panther 2 are tracking at $28 million, which would be the 15th biggest total in history, and the 6th biggest in Marvel history, but slightly beyond Dr. Strange 2 and Thor 4 this year.

The third largest November opening ever for a Thursday night, trailing only Entertainment board favorites Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Breaking Dawn Part 1. The original BP made $25.2 million on its Thursday opened in February 2018. At the time, that was the biggest Marvel Thursday opener ever, since surpassed by Endgame ($60 m), No Way Home ($50 m), Infinity War ($39 m), Dr. Strange 2 ($36 m), and Thor 4 ($29 m).

I'm actually pretty surprised this is lagging behind MoM thus far.

I wonder how much is a May vs November thing. I'm probably forgetting something very obvious but I don't remember a ton of November record holders. Granted, February used to be box office poison too, and BP1 handled that.

Dr. Strange was the first Marvel release after No Way Home, and Strange was in No Way Home, so that probably galvanized a lot of the interest. And releasing in May vs. October definitely seems like a big benefit - college is almost out, days are longer, people are spending more money on entertainment, rather than saving up for the holidays, etc.

Black Panther 2 rolled those Thursday previews into an $84 million estimated Friday opening. That is the 12th-largest single day in domestic history, and the second-largest this year trailing only Dr. Strange 2's $90.7 million last May.

It's the 5th-biggest opening day in Marvel history, lagging Endgame, Infinity War, Dr. Strange, and Age of Ultron, although that might change as this is an estimated $84 million and Age of Ultron made $84.4 m.

That's almost $9 million more than the original Black Panther made in 2018 on Opening Day.

Weekend projections for Black Panther 2's opening weekend hit $180 million.

Second biggest opening of the year, biggest opening ever in November, 13th biggest opening ever. Previous record-holder for November was Hunger Games: Catching Fire at $158 million. It's shor tof the $202 million Black Panther made in February 2018, but I think that was over 4 days tied into President's Day weekend.

Further stamping the disparity between DC and Marvel, BP2 surpassed Black Adam's box office just like that. Black Adam came out 3 weeks ago and is at $151 million. BP2 has a great shot of finishing 3rd for the year. Top Gun is at $716 million, I'm sure Avatar 2 will make $500m + and that means BP2 has to surpass Dr. Strange's $411 million to reach third.'

Also, Kudos to Universal for keeping Minions: THe Rise of Gru out in 20 random theaters and selling them out day after day to the point that over the weekend, Minions 2 passed The Batman for 4th in domestic box this weekend, at 369,347,010 to $369,345,853. Well played.

Also, the horror movie Smile busted $100 million this weekend.

Crazy that Top Gun will [likely] be the top domestic grosser this year.

If you'd asked me in January, I probably would've guessed Wakanda Forever, Multiverse of Madness, or Jurassic World Dominion, but never in a million years Top Gun.

Only question is will Avatar be able to reach #2.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Crazy that Top Gun will [likely] be the top domestic grosser this year.

If you'd asked me in January, I probably would've guessed Wakanda Forever, Multiverse of Madness, or Jurassic World Dominion, but never in a million years Top Gun.

Only question is will Avatar be able to reach #2.

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I would consider Avatar's floor to be $500 million. I don't know how young people will respond to it, but I assume people who were in their teens and 20s when the original came out are going to want to see this one. Besides it's got the coveted Star Wars sequel slot of right before Christmas where most people are off and the movies are really popular. BP2 looks like it has a lot of emotional heart in it (haven't seen it yet) and that's what keeps people coming back. The trailers I've seen for Avatar seem to make it about family and spectacle, and that's a surefire way to get repeat business.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Besides it's got the coveted Star Wars sequel slot of right before Christmas

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Titanic, LOTR and Avatar also opened this weekend.

The official # from the weekend was $181.3 million for Black Panther 2, and it came back with a very impressive non-Holiday, non-Summer, non-nothing $11 million on Monday to get to $192 million. Should be knocking on the door of $300 million by the end of this coming week and snowball its way through Thanksgiving.