*****2018-2019 San Antonio Spurs*****

177,736 Views | 1749 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by jteagle
Ag Natural
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1:59p, 7/23/18
AG
Now that the Kawhi drama is over lets turn the page.

I'm seeing odds anywhere from 30-1 to 100-1 for a championship. Not saying you should empty the IRA and bet but getting the Spurs at 100-1 would be smart play. They are going to have a lot of firepower offensively despite so much teeth grinding over a lack of 3-pt shooting. If Pop can get these guys playing top 10 defense then they will really surprise. The West looks very nasty again. I haven't see any over under win totals yet. I'm thinking Vegas will put them around 48.
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jteagle
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2:14p, 7/23/18
AG
It will definitely be an interesting year in the West.

In my opinion the Spurs have definitely improved their starting lineup from a scoring standpoint and should still have a good bench especially if Derrick White improves like I think he will.

C Gasol/Poeltl
PF Aldridge
SF Gay
SG DeRozan
PG Murray

Last year the Spurs finished 2 games out of 3rd place. If the Spurs can stay healthy I think they finish much better than last year. Of course the wildcard will be how much the Lakers improve with LeBron. I am anxious to see how that works out because this will be the worst team he has played on since the early years with the Cavs. Honestly, I know they will be better but I'm just not sure how much.

No matter what, I'm in.
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jteagle
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2:24p, 7/23/18
AG
Salary Cap explained

Salary Cap
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Ronnie Mund
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2:58p, 7/23/18
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Ag Natural
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3:04p, 7/23/18
AG
Seeing Gay and DeRozan playing together in the Drew League gave me the warm fuzzies for sure. Those two clearly feel comfortable playing together. If they hit it off with LMA then we have a very solid core. Then the final outcome of the season will be heavily dependent on how well these guys mesh defensively and how some of these promising young guys progress.

The Spurs approached the Kawhi trade in an interesting way. The general consensus was they were making a mistake not demanding a boatload of picks and/or some promising young player to rebuild around. My thought is they must really like the young guys already in the program. Murray, White, Walker, Bertans, Forbes and now Poeltl. That's 5 very young talents who all do some interesting things. This isn't some typical "win-now" squad with a veteran-laiden bench.
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Chipotlemonger
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3:31p, 7/23/18
AG
In for the ride
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BlackLab
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9:03p, 7/23/18
AG
Kawhi would never really talk to Robinson?
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Ganondorf
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9:41p, 7/23/18
AG
Not sure what to think of this next season. We could go for 50+, we could be an 8 seed first round exit.
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saltydog13
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In reply to BlackLab • 9:57p, 7/23/18
AG
BlackLab said:
Kawhi would never really talk to Robinson?

That's what I can't wrap my mind around. He wouldn't do the simple thing of conversing with Robinson, but yet he wants to go to the biggest NBA market possible with the spotlight on you almost 24/7?
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Ag Natural
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8:03a, 7/24/18
AG
Kawhi was my favorite player in the league. But the truth is that's all on court. I have no clue what that dude is as a man.
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LouisHerbertWong
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In reply to Ag Natural • 9:05a, 7/24/18
AG
Ag Natural said:
Kawhi was my favorite player in the league. But the truth is that's all on court. I have no clue what that dude is as a man.
Answer: Not much.
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Enzo The Baker
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9:54p, 7/24/18
AG
DG on Manu
Quote:

It seems as if he - the way he's been workin' out, and the way he's talkin', it seems as if we're probably gonna be playing against him this year. I don't know for sure, but he's under contract and it doesn't seem like he's ready to give it up yet.

I hope so!
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AggieOO
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10:25a, 7/25/18
don't know a lot about DeRozen, but after reading this, he sounds like he'll fit right in with the Spurs:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24184139/demar-derozan-dishes-trade-toronto-raptors-san-antonio-spurs-nba
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OlRock
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In reply to AggieOO • 1:18p, 7/25/18
AG
I have always been a big fan of DeMar. I really believe this was one of a few great outcomes that could have fell our way. He will flourish under Pop's leadership and the pedigree of the organization. It's exciting to think a player of his caliber will most likely improve his game just by putting on a Spurs jersey. That may be a grand assumption to some, but I have a hard time finding reasons to believe he won't elevate his game. DeMar should fit right in.

There are big unknowns after Aldridge, DeMar and Manu for sure. Patty, Gay, Marco and Pau bring experience. Murray gives hope for superstar ability. Then add a few role players that have flashed and shown potential, and I don't think there will be much drop off from last year. IMHO we are better regardless of three point shooting. I have faith Pop will get the defense out of the group. It's still going to be hell against the top of the west.
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West Texan
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1:25p, 7/25/18
AG
Demar is certainly saying all the right things.
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UnderoosAg
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2:46p, 7/25/18
AG
Quote:
Jordan Brand, a division of Nike, and Leonard's representatives came "very close" to completion on a new four-year extension worth more than $20 million. But discussions broke down abruptly because representatives for Leonard didn't feel that the new deal reflected the forward's accomplishments and standing within the league, sources said

https://news4sanantonio.com/sports/spurs-zone/report-jordan-brand-severs-ties-with-kawhi-leonard

Thanks again Tio Dennis.
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Guitarsoup
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3:59p, 7/25/18
AG
That 4y20mm deal he turned down is likely larger than anything he will be offered now.

Maybe Cole Haan will give him a deal to wear their shoes while faking an injury on the bench.
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West Texan
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In reply to Guitarsoup • 5:03p, 7/25/18
AG
Guitarsoup said:
That 4y20mm deal he turned down is likely larger than anything he will be offered now.

Maybe Cole Haan will give him a deal to wear their shoes while faking an injury on the bench.


Maybe he can sign a deal with LA Gear.
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texag06ish
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In reply to Guitarsoup • 5:09p, 7/25/18
AG
Guitarsoup said:
That 4y20mm deal he turned down is likely larger than anything he will be offered now.

Maybe Cole Haan will give him a deal to wear their shoes while faking an injury on the bench.


Cole Haan is owned by Nike. Not likely.
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Guitarsoup
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In reply to texag06ish • 5:23p, 7/25/18
AG
texag06ish said:
Guitarsoup said:
That 4y20mm deal he turned down is likely larger than anything he will be offered now.

Maybe Cole Haan will give him a deal to wear their shoes while faking an injury on the bench.


Cole Haan is owned by Nike. Not likely.
Nike sold their stake in 2012.
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texag06ish
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In reply to Guitarsoup • 5:37p, 7/25/18
AG
Well I'll be damned.
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Pumpkinhead
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9:39p, 7/25/18
AG
One thing the Spurs will have to do if they want to improve from last season is somehow fix their road issues.

The Spurs last season had a 14-27 record on the road, which was the worse away win % of the 16 teams that made the playoffs. They simply can't afford playing so poorly on the road to have any chance of sniffing 50 wins.
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2008and1
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 11:05p, 7/25/18
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
One thing the Spurs will have to do if they want to improve from last season is somehow fix their road issues.

The Spurs last season had a 14-27 record on the road, which was the worse away win % of the 16 teams that made the playoffs. They simply can't afford playing so poorly on the road to have any chance of sniffing 50 wins.


The Spurs just didn't have anyone to take over at the end of games and a ton of those losses were close going into the closing minutes. Had Kawhi played he would have won more than half of those himself. Hopefully DeRozan can take on some of that load next year.
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jteagle
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In reply to 2008and1 • 8:23a, 7/26/18
AG
2008and1 said:
Pumpkinhead said:
One thing the Spurs will have to do if they want to improve from last season is somehow fix their road issues.

The Spurs last season had a 14-27 record on the road, which was the worse away win % of the 16 teams that made the playoffs. They simply can't afford playing so poorly on the road to have any chance of sniffing 50 wins.


The Spurs just didn't have anyone to take over at the end of games and a ton of those losses were close going into the closing minutes. Had Kawhi played he would have won more than half of those himself. Hopefully DeRozan can take on some of that load next year.
I honestly think Derrick White has the mentality and the skills to become that player. Maybe I am setting the expectations too high for the 2nd year player but I am hoping that Manu can pass the torch to Derrick this year and he becomes a major player off the bench.
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Ulrich
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9:53a, 7/26/18
IMO White has a lot of improving left before he can initiate the offense consistently at the NBA level. This year he'll be most effective coming off screens for catch and shoot or attacking closeouts. I saw him freeze up too often against summer league traps this year to trust him in NBA endgames.
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LawHall88
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3:16p, 7/26/18
AG
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LawHall88
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4:43p, 7/26/18
AG


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Ulrich
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2:43p, 7/27/18
Out of curiosity, I ran some numbers on continuity. Since the 2012-13 season, the spurs have had an average of 114,000 spurs minutes on the roster entering the season. This year they will have 57,000 if Manu returns and 30,000 if he doesn't.

I also did a calculation that weights how much the players actually ended up playing in the upcoming season. The number is an index, it's not meaningful in itself. By that metric the spurs have averaged 9,500 since 12-13, peaked at over 12,200 in 14-15 (the next season Splitter and Beli were gone and Timmy and Bonner saw their minutes decline dramatically), and were at 6,600 last year. The spurs will average about 3,800 next year with Manu and 2,500 without.

The win count and cumulative experience lines definitely correlate, but there are not enough samples to draw a strong conclusion.

Not trying to draw any conclusions, it's just a slow afternoon and I've been wondering. Let me know if you have any questions about experience or production in that time frame, I already put the dataset together.
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Ag Natural
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In reply to Ulrich • 4:27p, 7/27/18
AG
Ulrich said:
Out of curiosity, I ran some numbers on continuity. Since the 2012-13 season, the spurs have had an average of 114,000 spurs minutes on the roster entering the season. This year they will have 57,000 if Manu returns and 30,000 if he doesn't.

I also did a calculation that weights how much the players actually ended up playing in the upcoming season. The number is an index, it's not meaningful in itself. By that metric the spurs have averaged 9,500 since 12-13, peaked at over 12,200 in 14-15 (the next season Splitter and Beli were gone and Timmy and Bonner saw their minutes decline dramatically), and were at 6,600 last year. The spurs will average about 3,800 next year with Manu and 2,500 without.

The win count and cumulative experience lines definitely correlate, but there are not enough samples to draw a strong conclusion.

Not trying to draw any conclusions, it's just a slow afternoon and I've been wondering. Let me know if you have any questions about experience or production in that time frame, I already put the dataset together.
Slow afternoon? That's an understatement.

Is it interesting to some extent because I've always thought a team's potential is something like:

Talent x Experience x Continuity/Teamwork

Talent and Experience are pretty much fixed when you start the season so your ceiling is set. And then Continuity give an advantage more in the early part of the season. Teamwork is also largely a function of coaching as well. So well coached teams can become greater than the sum of their parts (i.e. 2013-2014 Spurs)
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Ulrich
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In reply to Ag Natural • 4:59p, 7/27/18
It only took about 45 minutes. Basketball-reference + Excel makes it fairly easy.

Probably the most interesting/alarming takeaway is that nearly half of the spurs corporate experience (spursperience?) is with one guy who won't play that much even if he comes back. Timmy alone had more weighted spurs time than this entire roster including Manu by 2012 and it kept rising through the 14-15 season.

I'm slowly talking myself into the idea of this team having a high upside, but the lack of continuity in the system will probably lead to a somewhat early exit no matter how many regular season wins we rack up. The next year could be interesting, although i haven't simulated what the numbers would look like. Maybe over the weekend.
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StillNotAnAggie
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5:00p, 7/27/18
https://instagr.am/p/BlwBAz8n0Dt
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Guitarsoup
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In reply to StillNotAnAggie • 10:20p, 7/27/18
AG
StillNotAnAggie said:
https://instagr.am/p/BlwBAz8n0Dt
Still better than Harden.
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2008and1
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In reply to Ulrich • 11:24a, 7/28/18
AG
In years past it was usually mentioned that it wasn't usually until year two in the system that a player really felt comfortable. It makes sense then that continuity led to better seasons.
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West Texan
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11:44a, 7/28/18
AG
Uno mas!

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Ulrich
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1:19p, 7/28/18
I'm trying to do a broader analysis but the fact that some names have been used by more than one player is getting in the way.
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