The mavs continue to have the worst luck ever as a lottery team...still have never moved up

S'all good. Just get a little suspicious when a name that isn't frequented starts to **** on the thread.

Also the fact that the 2 teams tied with the mavs in the standings got the 1st and 2nd pick and the mavs ended up at 10th in insane....the basketball gods hate Dallas

rsf0626 said:

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Also the fact that the 2 teams tied with the mavs in the standings got the 1st and 2nd pick and the mavs ended up at 10th in insane....the basketball gods hate Dallas

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No use getting angry and shaking your fist about it.

Our odds were crappy and the mavericks always get screwed by the lottery. At least it's over with and we can move on now.

More like bemoaning their long, long draft misfortune. This one was seriously a new kick to the balls, and I wasn't expecting it. While I'm always hoping for the best but expecting the usual, I was content to expect 9-10, be satisfied Atlanta wasn't getting much and that the Luka pick debt was off the ledger, but the way it happened, daaaaaaaamn. That was just wrong.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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rsf0626 said:

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Also the fact that the 2 teams tied with the mavs in the standings got the 1st and 2nd pick and the mavs ended up at 10th in insane....the basketball gods hate Dallas

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No use getting angry and shaking your fist about it.

Our odds were crappy and the mavericks always get screwed by the lottery. At least it's over with and we can move on now.

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And, at least you get to see Zion (and the #2 pick) twice a year at home.
Actually, the West got 4 of top 6 picks.

Fml fml fml fml.

I hope no one complains about tanking again when we are out of it (although we shouldn't be taking st all for the next 10+ years). I definitely didn't want to lose dirk's last game. But not losing 1 more before that just changed the next decade for this franchise.

We are still set up decently well but we could've been in the driver's seat. I know losing one more wouldn't have drastically changed the odds but every little bit helps. The way it played out couldn't have been worse for us. So unlucky and the top picks stay in the West. Oh well.

Fml fml fml.

rsf0626 said:

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The mavs continue to have the worst luck ever as a lottery team...still have never moved up

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Even lost the coin flip with the Pistons for Isiah Thomas. Got the last pick in the lottery in 1986. Got an absolute steal with Roy Tarpley...then found out why a few years later...

mavsfan4ever said:

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Fml fml fml fml.

I hope no one complains about tanking again when we are out of it (although we shouldn't be taking st all for the next 10+ years). I definitely didn't want to lose dirk's last game. But not losing 1 more before that just changed the next decade for this franchise.

We are still set up decently well but we could've been in the driver's seat. I know losing one more wouldn't have drastically changed the odds but every little bit helps. The way it played out couldn't have been worse for us. So unlucky and the top picks stay in the West. Oh well.

Fml fml fml.

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It could've been worse.

Memphis, Phoenix, or the especially the Lakers could've got #1 overall. I'm not as concerned about the pelicans getting it because their organization is very incompetent and poorly run.

It sucks that Zion will end up in our division tho. I was really hoping an eastern team would get him if we didn't.

It could have been worse. We could have conveyed a higher pick to ATL.

We got Luka Doncic out of Trae Young and whoever the 10th pick is. As long as that 10th pick isn't a Klay Thompson-esque steak, the Mavs still came out on top in that trade.

GD-it, quit all the damn whining people. This was a one person draft and the chances of getting that #1 pick were so limited that you should have never even contemplated it. Don't lose any sleep over this.

We have much to look forward to in the coming years. The Mavs never get any luck at the draft, why would anyone think this year would be different.

Bottom line is that we have two potentially next-level players,, several young role players who can become even more, and then are in a great cap situation going forward.

I'm so ready for the next season NOW

dave94 said:

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GD-it, quit all the damn whining people. This was a one person draft and the chances of getting that #1 pick were so limited that you should have never even contemplated it. Don't lose any sleep over this.

We have much to look forward to in the coming years. The Mavs never get any luck at the draft, why would anyone think this year would be different.

Bottom line is that we have two potentially next-level players,, several young role players who can become even more, and then are in a great cap situation going forward.

I'm so ready for the next season NOW

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We better land some decent free agents, then I'd get excited.


If we get skunked again ( like usual) then it will probably suck next year.

fightinags2013 said:

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It could have been worse. We could have conveyed a higher pick to ATL.

We got Luka Doncic out of Trae Young and whoever the 10th pick is. As long as that 10th pick isn't a Klay Thompson-esque steak, the Mavs still came out on top in that trade.

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I don't think it was possible for us to move up to 5-8. We would move up to 1-4 and keep the pick or have a pick 9 or higher that goes to Atlanta.

That's a heck of a spin job. Never seen picks 2-4 be considered a negative asset because you have to pay them some money and they may not work out.

mavsfan4ever said:

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That's a heck of a spin job. Never seen picks 2-4 be considered a negative asset because you have to pay them some money and they may not work out.

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The point is to quit whining. It accomplishes nothing.

Zion is the only sure bet from this draft. The Mavs are set up nicely if they can make some solid moves in the offseason.

It's a message board. Are we only supposed to post when stuff goes great or only post sunshine posts when things go not great? On all nba boards people are talking about the Mavs' and twolves' bad luck when it comes to the lottery. Both have never moved up. It's not really whining. It's just people talking about what happened, stating facts and how We've been pretty unlucky.

This was pretty extraordinary with Memphis and pelicans getting 1 and 2. I would expect people to talk about it. And it's not like anyone is saying we are screwed moving forward because we didn't move up. It's the opposite. Everyone is saying we are still in a good spot.

Zion would have been great. Otherwise it's a good draft to give up a pick.

mavsfan4ever said:

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It's a message board. Are we only supposed to post when stuff goes great or only post sunshine posts when things go not great? On all nba boards people are talking about the Mavs' and twolves' bad luck when it comes to the lottery. Both have never moved up. It's not really whining. It's just people talking about what happened, stating facts and how We've been pretty unlucky.

This was pretty extraordinary with Memphis and pelicans getting 1 and 2. I would expect people to talk about it. And it's not like anyone is saying we are screwed moving forward because we didn't move up. It's the opposite. Everyone is saying we are still in a good spot.

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Yes, it was a bummer that 2 teams with the same odds as us moved up to 1 & 2...but it's a little overblown to bemoan the Mavs luck. What was it; like a 75% chance we didn't move up? Teams aren't supposed to move up. Some do, most don't. Losing sight of that is the only reason Mavs fans are disappointed.

Imagine being a Hawks fan? or a bulls fan? Or a Knicks fan? They got murdered in this draft.

More importantly; Keeping the 2020 pick and ESPECIALLY the 2022 pick is HUGE for the Mavs. Now we wait to see what happens to the one-and-done rule.

Old Tom Morris said:

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More like bemoaning their long, long draft misfortune. This one was seriously a new kick to the balls, and I wasn't expecting it. While I'm always hoping for the best but expecting the usual, I was content to expect 9-10, be satisfied Atlanta wasn't getting much and that the Luka pick debt was off the ledger, but the way it happened, daaaaaaaamn. That was just wrong.

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Yeah I wasn't expecting that either. I was expecting to lose, which was the statistically likely case, but it is wild how they lost the last two lotteries. Last year the Mavs tied Atlanta record wise and lost a coin flip. Atlanta moved up. Effectively that coin flip lost the Mavs their pick this year. This year the Mavs tie NO/Memphis with a chance to win their pick back but lose the coin flip again. Now the Mavs have the indignity of watching NO/Memphis both move up and the pick is officially lost.

If the NBA exists in 1000 years (and a lottery is still held) then I have no doubt that the Mavs will move up many times. There will be regression to the mean. Unfortunately for us life is a small sample size and you just have to take the L and move on. On the plus side the Mavs have been pretty good at doing the things they can control. Risking 3 first round picks for Luka/Porzingis was a power play. If Porzingis can stay out of Riker's Island and away from the Russian mafia then I believe it will pay off.

I think most fans are talking about "bad luck" because they aren't just looking at this year in a vacuum. The Mavs and Twolves have had by far the worst luck out of any teams in the NBA when it comes to the lottery. So when you add that to the fact that the two teams we were tied with moved up (so we would have moved up if we had lost one more game or would have not lost the coin flip), it makes it a little more extraordinary than a usual year where a team doesn't move up. Plus what happened last year with the coin flip adds to that even more.

Basically, I echo everything Jeff said.

Anyways, we are still in a good spot and hopefully can make some great free agent moves.

jeffdjohnson said:

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Old Tom Morris said:

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More like bemoaning their long, long draft misfortune. This one was seriously a new kick to the balls, and I wasn't expecting it. While I'm always hoping for the best but expecting the usual, I was content to expect 9-10, be satisfied Atlanta wasn't getting much and that the Luka pick debt was off the ledger, but the way it happened, daaaaaaaamn. That was just wrong.

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Yeah I wasn't expecting that either. I was expecting to lose, which was the statistically likely case, but it is wild how they lost the last two lotteries. Last year the Mavs tied Atlanta record wise and lost a coin flip. Atlanta moved up. Effectively that coin flip lost the Mavs their pick this year. This year the Mavs tie NO/Memphis with a chance to win their pick back but lose the coin flip again. Now the Mavs have the indignity of watching NO/Memphis both move up and the pick is officially lost.

If the NBA exists in 1000 years (and a lottery is still held) then I have no doubt that the Mavs will move up many times. There will be regression to the mean. Unfortunately for us life is a small sample size and you just have to take the L and move on. On the plus side the Mavs have been pretty good at doing the things they can control. Risking 3 first round picks for Luka/Porzingis was a power play. If Porzingis can stay out of Riker's Island and away from the Russian mafia then I believe it will pay off.

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We actually won that coin flip.

M.C. Swag said:

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jeffdjohnson said:

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Old Tom Morris said:

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More like bemoaning their long, long draft misfortune. This one was seriously a new kick to the balls, and I wasn't expecting it. While I'm always hoping for the best but expecting the usual, I was content to expect 9-10, be satisfied Atlanta wasn't getting much and that the Luka pick debt was off the ledger, but the way it happened, daaaaaaaamn. That was just wrong.

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Yeah I wasn't expecting that either. I was expecting to lose, which was the statistically likely case, but it is wild how they lost the last two lotteries. Last year the Mavs tied Atlanta record wise and lost a coin flip. Atlanta moved up. Effectively that coin flip lost the Mavs their pick this year. This year the Mavs tie NO/Memphis with a chance to win their pick back but lose the coin flip again. Now the Mavs have the indignity of watching NO/Memphis both move up and the pick is officially lost.

If the NBA exists in 1000 years (and a lottery is still held) then I have no doubt that the Mavs will move up many times. There will be regression to the mean. Unfortunately for us life is a small sample size and you just have to take the L and move on. On the plus side the Mavs have been pretty good at doing the things they can control. Risking 3 first round picks for Luka/Porzingis was a power play. If Porzingis can stay out of Riker's Island and away from the Russian mafia then I believe it will pay off.

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We actually won that coin flip.

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Correct- if we had lost that coin flip, we would've have the third pick outright in 2018, and would've just drafted Doncic without giving up a pick

Awesome interview from Dirk today on 105.3. Listen if you have time. Pretty funny stuff

https://1053thefan.radio.com/articles/dirk-relieved-his-nba-career-over-enjoying-retirement-eating-lots-ice-cream

mavsfan4ever said:

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That's a heck of a spin job. Never seen picks 2-4 be considered a negative asset because you have to pay them some money and they may not work out.

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It's how the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted... Pick damaged goods, have them fail the physical, and get out of paying slot money.

mavsfan4ever said:

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That's a heck of a spin job. Never seen picks 2-4 be considered a negative asset because you have to pay them some money and they may not work out.

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You have the choice of either having the cap space to sign a max level player to add to Luka and Porzingis this offseason, or drafting Morant, Barrett or Culver, which do you choose? That's not spin, it's reality. I'm not saying definitively it's a good thing they didn't get that pick, but it's not as bad as some people seem to think.

I was just kidding with you. But just so you know, teams can sign their first round picks to their rookie deals even if it means they go over the cap. So the rookie contract wouldn't prevent them from signing anyone. And once signed, the rookie contracts are generally considered a bargain so they help out the cap in future years.

Also, we have around $52 million in cap space. So we have enough tooom to get a max plus additional players.

Plus we could easily stretch+waive Lee's contract. A draft pick wouldn't have impacted our ability to add a max player at all.

M.C. Swag said:

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Plus we could easily stretch+waive Lee's contract. A draft pick wouldn't have impacted our ability to add a max player at all.

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I hope they bring back trey Burke.


I can't be the only fan sick of the Mavericks bringing back BOTH devin Harris and JJ barea. Both of those guys get hurt so much that if you combined their output, it would probably equal one player.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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M.C. Swag said:

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Plus we could easily stretch+waive Lee's contract. A draft pick wouldn't have impacted our ability to add a max player at all.

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I hope they bring back trey Burke.


I can't be the only fan sick of the Mavericks bringing back BOTH devin Harris and JJ barea. Both of those guys get hurt so much that if you combined their output, it would probably equal one player.

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Yea, I hear ya. It all depends on who we get in FA. Like, if we sign Kemba and/or Pat Bev, there's just no way we can bring back Devin (who i 100% believe is gone regardless), Burke, & JJ. That's just too many guards and 2 of those 3 have to go.

In order of likelihood to be cut, I honestly believe:
1) Devin - he was always a 1 yr stop-gap. Brunson ended whatever slim chance he had of returning.
2) Burke - it's pretty clear that Rick doesn't like/trust him. He should have played more minutes
3) JJ - In a more cutthroat environment, I think JJ should be cut. That achilles tear is brutal. I just don't see Rick/Mark/Donnie having the ruthlessness to cut the last remaining tie to the 2011 title run just yet.

Teams that are at or near the cap can go over the cap to sign their draft picks, but teams like the Mavericks with ~$30 million in space cannot draft a player, have a $7 million cap hold and then spend the entirety of that $30 million in cap and then sign their rookie to the $7 million deal. The rookie cap hold reduces the available free agent spending by that amount. See this article discussing it:

https://247sports.com/nba/mavericks/Article/How-the-NBA-Draft-Lottery-can-affect-the-Dallas-Mavericks-summer-plans-131449698/

Quote:

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With the 2019-2020 salary cap expected to rise to $109 million, rookie pay scales will rise as well. Rookie pay scales are adjusted by the percentage difference in the salary cap from year to year, and there's going to be roughly a 7 percent increase this year. Here's an estimate of what the first contract year of picks 1-through-4 will look like based on the salary cap increase:

Pick 1 - $7,280,601

Pick 2 - $6,514,160

Pick 3 - $5,849,904

Pick 4 - $5,274,244

So, hypothetically, if the Mavs win the lottery and decide to keep the pick (Zion Williamson seems an easy decision if presented with the opportunity), that would take up a roster spot while also decreasing their cap space by $7 million.

If you're doing that kind of free agency money sacrifice for one of the best collegiate prospects we've seen in decades, there's nothing to complain about. However, if the Mavs end up with the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick in the draft, that's when things could get interesting. There are some really good prospects in this year's draft (Matt Galatzan and I talk about Jarrett Culver, DeAndre Hunter and others with Edward Egros from the Final Four in Episode 14 of The Step Back: A Mavs Podcast -- 13:15 mark), but none of them seem to be as sure of a thing as Williamson is (we also discussed Williamson at length with Nick Neppach on Episode 12 of The Step Back -- 40:03 mark). And if that's the case, you'd have to imagine that Dallas would consider an attempt to trade the pick if it's not No. 1.

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Teams have to meet all their financial obligations by either relinquishing bird rights or signing/trading draft picks before they can acquire free agent talent. Getting the 2nd-4th pick would have reduced the Mavericks free agent spending money.

Yes, it would briefly affect our cap and roster until you move another contract/player, which the mavs could have done in a dozen different ways. Stretch waiving Courtney Lee's or THJ's contract alone would take care of the #2 rookie salary. It wouldn't have been an issue at all if a max player wanted to join the mavs (with or without a rookie in the fold)

Didn't realize that about the cap hold on rookie deals.

But I guess I don't understand that article. With so much cap space, why are they acting like we wouldn't want to pay a top draft pick $6 million a year. We'd still have plenty of room to sign a max. And $6 million doesn't get you anything in free agency so it's a bargain contract.

If we only had $30 million of space, then the article makes more sense. But with 50+ million I don't see what they are worried about and don't understand why we'd consider trading a top draft pick for cap space purposes.

Porzingis' deal is done at the end of the league year and he's either going to accept the qualifying offer so that he can become an unrestricted free agent next off-season or he's going to sign his max deal with the Mavericks. If he signs the max deal with the Mavericks he's going to represent a $27,000,000 cap figure. After relinquishing bird rights and having players like Dwight Powell opt in, the Mavericks are going to have roughly $30,000,000 to spend, which is right at the max deal for most of these max free agents. A $6,000,000 cap hold drops the available cap space below the first year of the max deal so you'd have to take further actions to get the cap space back above the first year's cap hit.

You can do something like stretch waive Courtney Lee, but what that means is you're taking his 12.75 million year remaining on his deal and stretch it over double the length of the contract plus one year (1 year x 2 + 1 year = 3) to reduce his cap hit by roughly 8 million, but increase his cap hit by roughly $4 million for the next 2 years. Stretch waiving THJ's contract would be an outright bad idea, you can do it, but it puts too much dead money on future years to be reasonable, he's not a totally useless player.

Not having the draft pick isn't necessarily a better end result, but it also affords you added flexibility in free agency to do things like sign a player like Vucevic (maybe not a max deal), Middleton or Thompson to a max deal (these are illustrative, not players I think the Mavs will actually sign) and add a player like Patrick Beverly on top of that (because you still have the space potential via stretch waiving Lee). Point is we were going to have to convey a pick to Atlanta one way or another, and it being a 10th overall pick in this draft isn't a bad result. If you asked me if I would rather have Vucevic and Beverly or RJ Barrett and Walker I'd pick the former.

Edit: To me it's more appealing to have the rookie cap hold next off-season, because the Mavs are already going to be more cap constrained in that off-season in comparison to this off-season as only Powell and Lee's deals (~22 million in space) will be expiring, and they're likely to try and keep Powell around.

Makes sense. Thanks for the detailed explanation.