Kick-R said:
GFS historically likes to develop big things 2 weeks out. Not saying it can't happen, but there is a lot more at play than it can accurately predict at this time.
It was gone in the next run. Good call.
2021 Tropical Twofer
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Last: 2 yr ago by htxag09
It was gone in the next run. Good call.
This is how Space City ended their evening update:
Quote:
Beyond that, we can exhale in Houston for now it seems. There will be other tropical systems to watch over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but none of them looks like a specific threat to our area at this time. Surely that could change, but that is all we can say right now. In the meantime, our thoughts are with our neighbors to the east who will likely be forced to endure yet another considerable tropical system.
This is about as bad as it can get for New Orleans.
Hope they've got their pumps ready
that's a pretty high bar don't you think
I'd say there are several CAT levels that could be much much worseQuote:
This is about as bad as it can get for New Orleans.
Bear in mind that the CAT1-5 generally only indicates pressures and max windspeeds, and doesn't take into account storm surge, rainfall, etc. A large, fast moving storm can create massive storm surge problems
cone said:
that's a pretty high bar don't you think
It's predicted to come ashore as a strengthening major storm with NOLA in the NE quadrant. Katrina came in as a big, but weakening major just to the east of New Orleans with 100ish mph winds in the city. Each one is different but the current setup is not looking good for them.
AgLiving06 said:
This is how Space City ended their evening update:Quote:
Beyond that, we can exhale in Houston for now it seems. There will be other tropical systems to watch over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but none of them looks like a specific threat to our area at this time. Surely that could change, but that is all we can say right now. In the meantime, our thoughts are with our neighbors to the east who will likely be forced to endure yet another considerable tropical system.
It's the one part I hate most about hurricane season: feeling relieved not to take a direct hit from a major hurricane while knowing someone else is, especially in Louisiana when there are lots personal connections there.
I can't blue star this enough. I have family in NOLA, live in Houston and have a place in Rockport. One of those areas will be impacted every hurricane season.
drmwvr said:
I can't blue star this enough. I have family in NOLA, live in Houston and have a place in Rockport. One of those areas will be impacted every hurricane season.
You know, i think us all being familiar with what getting smoked by a hurricane is like makes those of us on the gulf coast extra sympathetic to everyone else, which is why there always seems to be an army of folks rushing to assist everyone whenever a big one strikes. The disregard for any differences and willingness to lend a hand to each other so often is one of the things I absolutely love about houston and the gulf coast in general.
When a hurricane goes to NOLA I get my SIL and family at my house ... 7 kids under the age of 10 in my house.
Sometime i wish it would just hit Houston and make life easier for me! :P
Sometime i wish it would just hit Houston and make life easier for me! :P
Close to cat 1 strength and expected to get there before reaching Cuba. Now expected to hit major status 12 hours earlier than before.
Latest look at the 11am NHC cone for IDA. Expected to be a Major Hurricane near landfall with 120mph winds and 150mph gusts. Storm Surge estimates from 7-11 feet. Rainfall estimates over a foot. Tornadoes will be possible. East side effects will reach far outside the cone. pic.twitter.com/FLXBIPVA7b
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 27, 2021
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Grand Isle is about to get scraped clean.
Looks like once it passes Cuba all bets are off on strength forecast. Nothing in its way but its forward speed to keep it from rapid intensification.
Yep, I hate being that way, but in SW Louisiana we are still recovering from Laura and Delta. We were extremely lucky to not have any major damage to our home, but my brother-in-law and his family are still not back in there house. So the further east this goes the better.Beat40 said:AgLiving06 said:
This is how Space City ended their evening update:Quote:
Beyond that, we can exhale in Houston for now it seems. There will be other tropical systems to watch over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but none of them looks like a specific threat to our area at this time. Surely that could change, but that is all we can say right now. In the meantime, our thoughts are with our neighbors to the east who will likely be forced to endure yet another considerable tropical system.
It's the one part I hate most about hurricane season: feeling relieved not to take a direct hit from a major hurricane while knowing someone else is, especially in Louisiana when there are lots personal connections there.
Latest GFS has the storm at 955mb at landfall. Moderate cat 3.
Noon IR satellite on https://t.co/j6cXc9Fom0. IDA developing faster than expected. Pressures are dropping fast. With Gulf conditions ahead we will likely see intensity more than expected on approach. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/qnnnVWfdad
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 27, 2021
Modeling is often delayed in accounting for changes in initial intensity or position. Given the current strengthening happening, it's likely that future runs increase the intensity further.
Edit for example: GFS had the 1:00 EST pressure at 994mb on the 00z, but then dropped it to 991mb on the 06z and 12z after new data came in.
Edit for example: GFS had the 1:00 EST pressure at 994mb on the 00z, but then dropped it to 991mb on the 06z and 12z after new data came in.
Haha! As someone who housed a dozen people during the freeze, I get what you're saying!evestor1 said:
When a hurricane goes to NOLA I get my SIL and family at my house ... 7 kids under the age of 10 in my house.
Sometime i wish it would just hit Houston and make life easier for me! :P
But Houston has made no progress towards any kind of preparedness for a major hurricane. This city would be beyond ****ed if a Cat 4 or 5 hit us. We keep dodging that bullet.
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Why do they keep capitalizing IDA? Is it an acronym or something?
What kind of preparedness should city be doing?
BayAg_14 said:
Ike Dike
https://www.tamug.edu/ikedike/
Sure if you want to fundamentally change the entire galveston bay complex.
It's a hurricane now
compound
CW Griswold said:
compound
Swing and a miss
2%er
I'd have to look for it, but the Space City Weather guys went on a rant about it last year I believe when storms were zig zagging around us.BMX Bandit said:
What kind of preparedness should city be doing?
IDA now a Hurricane. Hurricane Hunters finding winds at 75mph and pressures down to 987mb. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/PjYGKFxNXX
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) August 27, 2021
Simmer down russ
Found out my brother in law is taking his travel trailer from Austin today to go to Alabama. He's not worried about the situation at all.
Cromagnum said:
Found out my brother in law is taking his travel trailer from Austin today to go to Alabama. He's not worried about the situation at all.
Wifes brother or sisters husband? Someone married in to a family with some not so bright folks.
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