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2021 Tropical Twofer

145,178 Views | 1102 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by htxag09
gougler08
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In reply to aggiedrew08 • 9:59a, 8/26/21
AG
aggiedrew08 said:
Only issue now would be if the center is much further south than expected once the hurricane hunters go in
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Seabreeze
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In reply to gougler08 • 10:03a, 8/26/21
Center is pretty defined.
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BayAg_14
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In reply to Seabreeze • 10:10a, 8/26/21
That's not low level circulation.
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Seabreeze
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10:54a, 8/26/21
Starting to zone in.
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Seersucker Ag 2011
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11:44a, 8/26/21
AG
Nice to see that I'll have a well-watered lawn in between making the best burgers in the city in my backyard.
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bularry
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11:56a, 8/26/21
man, almost that same track that went through Louisiana a few times last year. just brutal for that area
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AgLiving06
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12:35p, 8/26/21
FWIW Justin Stapleton says he think they shift the cone more to the east with the next update.
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Martin Q. Blank
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In reply to Seersucker Ag 2011 • 12:51p, 8/26/21
Seersucker Ag 2011 said:
Nice to see that I'll have a well-watered lawn in between making the best burgers in the city in my backyard.
We won't get a drop from this. Too far away and on the west side of the storm.
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P.H. Dexippus
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1:00p, 8/26/21
AG
2pm EST update has Houston outside the cone
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Mr. Lahey
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1:01p, 8/26/21
AG
Uhhhh isn't it a little too early to be spiking the football here fellas?
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Mr. Lahey • 1:04p, 8/26/21
Not really..
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Seabreeze
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1:06p, 8/26/21
2pm cone
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Mr. Lahey • 1:11p, 8/26/21
AG
Mr. Lahey said:
Uhhhh isn't it a little too early to be spiking the football here fellas?


That's what I'm thinking. There is no recon data in any of the models yet. They are flying into it a little later today so I think tomorrow mornings models (maybe ones late tonight even) will paint a better picture.
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Cromagnum • 1:17p, 8/26/21
Flying in right now
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Seabreeze
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1:22p, 8/26/21

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BayAg_14
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In reply to Mr. Lahey • 1:32p, 8/26/21
Mr. Lahey said:
Uhhhh isn't it a little too early to be spiking the football here fellas?


Models have been zeroing in on Louisiana for the past 48hrs. We are fine.
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Serotonin
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 1:48p, 8/26/21
AG
BayAg_14 said:
Mr. Lahey said:
Uhhhh isn't it a little too early to be spiking the football here fellas?


Models have been zeroing in on Louisiana for the past 48hrs. We are fine.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, these things seem to want to shift east every time.

It's probably happened, but I can't ever remember a storm in the Gulf with tracks pointing at NOLA or somewhere east of us that then shifted drastically to the Texas coast.
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AgLiving06
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1:54p, 8/26/21
It seemed like all last year storms were shifting west.

I remember that Laura was headed towards New Orleans and kept drifting west.
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sixiron
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1:59p, 8/26/21
AG
Quote:
I can't ever remember a storm in the Gulf with tracks pointing at NOLA or somewhere east of us that then shifted drastically to the Texas coast.


Harvey was initially pointing to La before shifting west towards the TX coast....but I think I recall the early tracks had predicted that shift.
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Serotonin
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 2:00p, 8/26/21
AG
Yeah, but the shift happened before Laura was in the gulf.

I do agree with you that tracks can move all over the place in either direction when they are in the Caribbean.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/LAURA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
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Serotonin
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In reply to sixiron • 2:05p, 8/26/21
AG
sixiron said:
Quote:
I can't ever remember a storm in the Gulf with tracks pointing at NOLA or somewhere east of us that then shifted drastically to the Texas coast.


Harvey was initially pointing to La before shifting west towards the TX coast....but I think I recall the early tracks had predicted that shift.
It seems like it was pretty locked in on TX coast once it was in the gulf:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/HARVEY_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

Unfortunately don't have the history of all the models so just going off of the NOAA 5-day cones for projected track.
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BayAg_14
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2:14p, 8/26/21
Well this is interesting. 12Z GFS has an even stronger storm hitting on the 7th.


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sixiron
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In reply to Serotonin • 2:15p, 8/26/21
AG
Prior to first becoming a hurricane (before the 5-day path), it had more of a northern path towards La. Next, it shifted west. That's all I was saying.
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jackie childs
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2:16p, 8/26/21
man, i hated harvey so much
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Serotonin
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 2:17p, 8/26/21
AG
Man, that would be awful for LC.
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chimpanzee
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 2:25p, 8/26/21
12 days out?

How accurate has that thing been in the past?
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ChemAg15
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2:30p, 8/26/21
AG
Posting hurricane forecasts for 12 days out should be worth a ban
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Cromagnum
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 2:32p, 8/26/21
AG
BayAg_14 said:
Well this is interesting. 12Z GFS has an even stronger storm hitting on the 7th.




Those Cajuns done invented a Hurricane magnet in Lake Charles.
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Tom Cardy
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2:32p, 8/26/21
AG
GFS historically likes to develop big things 2 weeks out. Not saying it can't happen, but there is a lot more at play than it can accurately predict at this time.
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BayAg_14
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In reply to ChemAg15 • 2:41p, 8/26/21
Wouldn't be the dumbest thing I've been banned for on this site. Several models have picked up a low developing so its not crazy to start talking about it.
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Caliber
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 2:46p, 8/26/21
AG
BayAg_14 said:
Wouldn't be the dumbest thing I've been banned for on this site. Several models have picked up a low developing so its not crazy to start talking about it.

Actually yes, yes it is crazy to start talking about it.
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Ag_07
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 2:49p, 8/26/21
AG
Yeah it is

And username does not check out.
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Seabreeze
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2:57p, 8/26/21
18z run
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P.H. Dexippus
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In reply to Seabreeze • 3:44p, 8/26/21
AG
That storm is going to be aimed at Alabama by this weekend
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Seabreeze
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 7:34p, 8/26/21
BayAg_14 said:
That's not low level circulation.

Ok, but thats exactly where it was...

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