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2021 Tropical Twofer

145,144 Views | 1102 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by htxag09
Seabreeze
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4:49p, 9/12/21
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Seabreeze
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4:51p, 9/12/21
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Seabreeze
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5:00p, 9/12/21

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Quincey P. Morris
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5:01p, 9/12/21
AG
Welp, I sit firmly in the 10-15 inch spot.
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BAP Enthusiast
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In reply to CDUB98 • 5:02p, 9/12/21
CDUB98 said:
Cromagnum said:
Euro with 5 feet of rain out towards Austin...



In the past, I would have laughed at that projection, but after getting bent over by Harvey, I won't blow anything off.


Harvey had a 100" prediction from one of the models at one point. I expect this one to be pretty intense rainfall wise.
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Anti-taxxer
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 5:04p, 9/12/21
AG
AgLiving06 said:
Won't the shift east keep the rain off the coast more?

This. I thought the 4pm update had the center forming to the NE.
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Cromagnum
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In reply to Quincey P. Morris • 5:09p, 9/12/21
AG
Quincey P. Morris said:
Welp, I sit firmly in the 10-15 inch spot.


Same. Work has made no decisions about tomorrow yet. Folks that aren't paying attention today will get a surprise Monday morning.
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Premium
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5:17p, 9/12/21
AG
Sounds like the bigger stuff is coming much later tomorrow?
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jetch17
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5:25p, 9/12/21
AG
Looks like flying back into hobby on Tuesday afternoon is gonna lick wang
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BBRex
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In reply to jetch17 • 5:26p, 9/12/21
AG
You should see if you can reschedule that flight now.
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Dan Scott
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5:29p, 9/12/21
AG
The Euro model is nasty. Looks like it's best for this to become to stay in the gulf and become a hurricane than move over land
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jetch17
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In reply to BBRex • 5:37p, 9/12/21
AG
BBRex said:
You should see if you can reschedule that flight now.


esp if I risk being stuck in midland!
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Duck Blind
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5:37p, 9/12/21
AG
Supposed to land at Hobby tomorrow (Monday) at 1:15pm. Thoughts??
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tamuags08
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5:38p, 9/12/21
AG
Flying out of IAH at Noon tomorrow
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AgLiving06
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5:41p, 9/12/21
The problem with the european is it only updates 2x per day and there were some significant changes that came out since then.

If you look at the 18z from the GFS, it's tracking further east and moving faster.

This is the 18z at 7pm Tuesday:



and rainfall:



This was the 12z at 7pm Tuesday:



And rainfall:



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flyingaggie12
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In reply to tamuags08 • 6:02p, 9/12/21
AG
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spadilly
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6:16p, 9/12/21
S
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Gap
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6:30p, 9/12/21
AG
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evestor1
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In reply to spadilly • 6:31p, 9/12/21
You can empty all the reservoirs you want...nature will fill it and flood it at will.

Lake Houston started lowering tonight. About 3-5 inches lower than noon right now. It won't do kingwood any good. Just the way it go.
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BQ_90
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In reply to spadilly • 6:32p, 9/12/21
AG
spadilly said:
Has Conroe opened the gates to pre flood Kingwood?
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In reply to BQ_90 • 6:45p, 9/12/21
Dill-Ag13
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In reply to tamuags08 • 7:00p, 9/12/21
AG
tamuags08 said:
Flying out of IAH at Noon tomorrow


Headed to Cancun huh?
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Quincey P. Morris
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8:37p, 9/12/21
AG


Well that's sounding ominous.
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Sea Speed
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8:38p, 9/12/21
AG
Kids school early release tomorrow.
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TombstoneTex
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:47p, 9/12/21
AG
Sea Speed said:
Kids school early release tomorrow.
what area of town if you don't mind saying?
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Seabreeze
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8:49p, 9/12/21
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CDUB98
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8:50p, 9/12/21
AG
Doesn't Ol Nick need to be worrying about Christmas, not bending us over?
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InnerCityAg
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9:06p, 9/12/21
Isn't it St. Nick?
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MelvinUdall
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In reply to Quincey P. Morris • 9:10p, 9/12/21
Clearly Harvey and Allison, at least for me were the most notable floods, but that Tax Day Flooding, was crazy if for no other reason than how hard it rained from late evening till early morning, just a very hard rain for 12 hours.
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InnerCityAg
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9:10p, 9/12/21
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tylercsbn9
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9:13p, 9/12/21
AG
Probably a safe bet they cancel school Tuesday out of caution?
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Kenneth_2003
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9:20p, 9/12/21
AG
New SCW post just hit. Reading now
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Seabreeze
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In reply to tylercsbn9 • 9:48p, 9/12/21
Ccisd canceled about an hour ago
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AgLiving06
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9:58p, 9/12/21
Spacecity seemed somewhat hopeful that if the euro gets into alignment with the gfs that there will be rain but the storm will be steadily moving.
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schmendeler
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9:58p, 9/12/21
AG
From space City weather:

Quote:
As of this evening, the outlook shows basically 5 to 10 inches of rain in the Houston metro area, with 10 to 15 inches in Galveston and Brazoria Counties. That seems reasonable right now, with the one caveat that higher amounts are likely depending on the exact track and speed of Nicholas as it comes through our area.
Not a picnic but not a Harvey part 2. At least not at this point.
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