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2021 Tropical Twofer

145,265 Views | 1102 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by htxag09
gougler08
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In reply to Seabreeze • 10:44a, 9/3/21
AG
Seabreeze said:
Quincey P. Morris said:
SCW is sounding a little less certain about that disturbance moving into the gulf than they have. Sounds like we're gonna need to keep an eye on it after all.

Yea, read that this morning. Went from oh its nothing this week to Ummmm maybe something today


It's definitely September now
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Tom Cardy
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11:17a, 9/3/21
AG
latest GFS run has it tracking up toward Louisiana, they really don't need anything else right now
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Sea Speed
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In reply to Tom Cardy • 11:19a, 9/3/21
AG
Hopefully it keeps pushing east.
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Ag12thman
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11:22a, 9/3/21
AG
Yeah, I'll be shocked if that's not at least a strong tropical storm by the time it makes it across the very warm Gulf waters.
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AgLiving06
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1:42p, 9/3/21
Exactly...any storm that just lingers around is something to be concerned about.
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Quincey P. Morris
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1:46p, 9/3/21
AG
At this point the area where it could form is basically the western 2/3 of the Gulf.


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Dayaveguy
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In reply to Cromagnum • 1:47p, 9/3/21
Boy is going to be Swanging in the rain
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AgLiving06
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3:54p, 9/3/21
Frank Billingsly just had a post saying that both models have it going to Florida.

That lines up with the GFS operational at least.

Looked to tropical tidbits and that's the European has it going even further east.
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Quincey P. Morris
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 4:14p, 9/3/21
AG
Is that something that happens often? Forming in the western gulf and going straight east to Florida?
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txags92
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In reply to Quincey P. Morris • 4:20p, 9/3/21
AG
Quincey P. Morris said:
Is that something that happens often? Forming in the western gulf and going straight east to Florida?
More common later in the year...late October or so. But it happens. Usually more NE than E, but it happens.
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AgLiving06
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4:42p, 9/3/21
We are starting to get to that transition period (it's early still) where we start getting "cold" fronts that will start pushing everything to the east.

From what Frank said, there's essentially a front coming that should steer the weather east.

Hopefully it holds.
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Tom Cardy
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5:21p, 9/3/21
AG
You could see the front on the 12z gfs that basically picked it up and carried it up the gulf coast. Of course that front has to materialize for it to happen, and we never trust just one model
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TriAg2010
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In reply to Quincey P. Morris • 6:44p, 9/3/21
AG
Quincey P. Morris said:
Is that something that happens often? Forming in the western gulf and going straight east to Florida?


Wilma and Mitch both followed this track
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txags92
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In reply to TriAg2010 • 7:29p, 9/3/21
AG
TriAg2010 said:
Quincey P. Morris said:
Is that something that happens often? Forming in the western gulf and going straight east to Florida?


Wilma and Mitch both followed this track


Neither of those formed in the western gulf. Both came from down in vicinity of the bay islands of Honduras in the southwestern Caribbean.
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AgLiving06
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In reply to Tom Cardy • 7:38p, 9/3/21
GFS 18z seemed to push it over near where the European model. Also had it weak. Not sure it even made it to a depression before landfall.

Long way to go, but glad to see them still trending that way.
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texsn95
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12:37a, 9/4/21
AG
Unfavorable conditions in the GoM, not worried about this one.
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AgLiving06
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8:22a, 9/4/21
Models continue to trend east. Of course my parents are headed to Florida today. So that should be fun for them.
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Cromagnum
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8:18p, 9/9/21
AG
Too early to say for sure, but maybe it gon rain next week.

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Fitch
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8:34p, 9/9/21
Tom Cardy
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9:39p, 9/9/21
AG
Euro seems a lot more keen on bringing that system into south texas and running it up the coast than the gfs does. Worth keeping an eye on
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Gig-Em2003
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9:40p, 9/9/21
AG
Is that 26" of rain projected in NW Houston?
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Al Bula
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9:51p, 9/9/21
AG
I guess I'm a little discombobulated this flood event won't be on a major holiday so the media can't label it. Maybe the Grandparents Day Flood of 2021?
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Tom Cardy
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9:55p, 9/9/21
AG
Eh, one model output doesn't mean doom. Most models projecting more in the 10-12" range currently, and closer to the coast
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Seabreeze
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In reply to Cromagnum • 11:03p, 9/9/21
Cromagnum said:
Too early to say for sure, but maybe it gon rain next week.


Hell yes, it's been dry
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BBRex
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2:47p, 9/10/21
AG
Houston faces a Stage 2 flood alert beginning Sunday evening

It's early to tell exactly what it will be, but there is likely rain coming.
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Seabreeze
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6:58a, 9/11/21


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Seabreeze
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7:08a, 9/11/21
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Seabreeze
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7:46a, 9/11/21
New model runs out this morning
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AgLiving06
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7:53a, 9/11/21
Are the golf carts protected?
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Seabreeze
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8:14a, 9/11/21
https://spacecityweather.com/tropical-system-moving-into-gulf-heavy-rains-likely-next-week/
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Seabreeze
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11:12a, 9/11/21
Here we go..
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Seabreeze
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11:21a, 9/11/21
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AgLiving06
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11:56a, 9/11/21
Given what I've seen from some other sources, that's actually not a terrible option for us since this storm is so lopsided.
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Quincey P. Morris
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12:43p, 9/11/21
AG
It was interesting in the SCW post that the scenario that has Houston getting the TS force winds was not the scenario that had us potentially getting the 20 inch rain bullseye.
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Tom Cardy
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12:49p, 9/11/21
AG
Stronger storm is less likely to slow down and dump rain. Stronger in this case also correlates to a more easterly track which keeps a lot of the moisture out in the gulf.
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