***** OFFICIAL Call the Iowa Caucus Thread *****

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shack009
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In reply to TRM • 10:47p, 1/15/24
AG
TRM said:
I know someone that was phone banking for DeSantis. He told me that some of the farmers they talked to had to stay with cattle through the night. Another guy supporting DeSantis did HVAC and couldn't caucus because of the emergency heating calls.

Hard to say the disconnect between the commitment cards and the results, but I'm going with the weather based off those anecdotes. The polling probably suppressed turnout as people thought it wasn't worth their time to caucus given the weather as well. Turnout was expected to be 200k


I don't know about all that. Trump draws a lot of support from farmers and blue collar, small business types as well.

I think this can just be chalked up to people just wanting Trump more than we hoped.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 10:47p, 1/15/24
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.
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FireAg
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In reply to TRM • 10:47p, 1/15/24
AG
Weather probably played a minor roll...

But the most likely explanation was they said something to be nice to the face of a DeSantis canvasser, but they likely had no intention of following though with it...

It's basic human nature...
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Who?mikejones!
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10:48p, 1/15/24
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TRM
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In reply to FireAg • 10:49p, 1/15/24
AG
Over the phone, you're less likely to be nice or you can just hang up.
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aggie93
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In reply to FireAg • 10:49p, 1/15/24
AG
FireAg said:
aggie93 said:
FireAg said:
aggie93 said:
FireAg said:
TexAgs91 said:

I want to make America great again. So if DeSantis is still around when Texas gets a turn I'll vote for him because I think he can still do a better job at MAGA than Trump. Otherwise, I'll vote for Trump in the general because I know he can make America great again. I've seen him do it. I just think DeSantis will have more of an impact than Trump will.
This X1000...
BTW Fire, not happy about it but it does look like the polls were fairly close. Not quite as bad but certainly closer than I expected. Oh well.
Outside of 2016...they have usually been pretty dependable...

There is an outlier here and there, but for the most part, they tell the tale...especially when there is such a huge gap...
I still don't know how you get 60k Caucus commits and 23k votes Only about 100k voting in the Caucus with 93% Reporting, 180k voted in '16.

Don't get it but it is what it is. Not going to make excuses.
As I explained previously to those using those "caucus commits" as emprical evidence "proving" that the polling was categorically wrong...

People will "say" a lot of things when you are stadning on their doorstep...but when it's time to be motivated to go out and hold true to your pledge, many...many people simply don't...
Traditionally that hasn't been the case but it is what it is. Every cycle is different. In the end the polls look like they were pretty close, at least the Des Moines Register (thought they were wrong on Haley as 2nd and DeSantis did a few points better than they predicted). He needed to make it under 15 or really 10, high 20's is likely not enough.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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FireAg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:50p, 1/15/24
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
I think we can put the "the media wants Trump to win so they can make him lose next November" theories to bed...there's no conspiracy to get Trump to win the primaries...they're scared ****less of him...
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TexAgs91
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In reply to BigRobSA • 10:51p, 1/15/24
AG
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.
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shack009
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:51p, 1/15/24
AG
DeSantis' speech was like 2 minutes long, it's easy for networks to show that.

Trump droned on and on about his family for that amount of time. Trump was talking about Melania's mom in heaven and her really lonely dad and about how Barron is tall but would rather play soccer than basketball.
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Tom Kazansky 2012
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In reply to aggie93 • 10:52p, 1/15/24
AG
aggie93 said:
No clue but I will say that if it is within 10 points or so then anyone who called for this race to be over or that we should just accept Trump either should apologize or never be treated seriously again.

We vote in this country for our leaders. Polls don't determine them. I find it particularly disgusting that many of those who have screamed about what happened in the 2020 election and how Trump was treated by the media are the loudest voices encouraging this primary to be devoid of a real debate with Trump and that everyone needs to get on board with Trump before a single vote is cast. If you think you can unite people by forcing them to accept someone they don't feel won fairly and we didn't allow his opponents an equal opportunity to fight don't cry when it happens again. You don't care about fairness or transparency, you just care when it impacts the guy you support.

I have no clue what the result will be, never been more unsure actually. The weather makes it even crazier. If nothing else there are thousands of people on all sides that have are out there braving the conditions to campaign for their candidate right now, most of which are doing it at their own expense. They deserve the respect of letting the process play out.


Ok now what? Transparency says trump won a landslide.

Not just his typical following but lots of people that refused to vote for him last go round.

I think Desantis crazies need to settle down after tonight. (I am a Desantis fan but have held that trump would win the primary).
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FireAg
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In reply to TRM • 10:52p, 1/15/24
AG
TRM said:
Over the phone, you're less likely to be nice or you can just hang up.
Nah...that's a big city reaction...not a rural reaction...
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TexAgs91
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:53p, 1/15/24
AG
Agthatbuilds said:

And I hear water is wet too
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Gap
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10:53p, 1/15/24
AG
Most all of Vivek's voters will go to DeSantis. If they wanted to vote for Trump, they already would have been doing so.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 10:53p, 1/15/24
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 10:54p, 1/15/24
TexAgs91 said:
Agthatbuilds said:

And I hear water is wet too

Watch out for your magnets!!
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FireAg
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In reply to aggie93 • 10:55p, 1/15/24
AG
I never bought Haley would be second, but her rise definitely didn't do DeSantis any favors...looks like she's going to come up about 2 points short of DeSantis...

DeSantis is going to be 29-30 short of Trump...final RCP had it Trump +33.7...so polling was about 4-5 points off from actuals...I was actually expecting 10+ points off, so that surprises me...
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Dan Scott
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10:55p, 1/15/24
AG
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:56p, 1/15/24
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
RGLAG85 said:
aggie93 said:
willtackleforfood said:

Quote:
I'm less and less inclined to vote for Trump the more he and his supporters act like children.

Oh no, whatever will he do?
The Trump strategy that he doesn't need your vote is an interesting one. It's like you are doing all you can to push people away because you like to smack talk. Cool.
This person, like many of the DeSantis fanboys on here, were never voting for the republican candidate. Hth.


What sort of bull**** attitude is this? What's your angle? I'm seriously asking to what advantage you think ****ting on supporters of Republicans not named Trump gets you. And by you, I mean maga people in general.

If I choose not to vote for Trump in the general, its likely because his synchopats have driven me away.
Trump supporters don't care how many people they have to step on or kick out of the way. There is only one goal - vote Trump.

If it hurts Trump later because they pushed people away, they'll just blame those people. It can't be their fault or Trump's fault.
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FireAg
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In reply to Gap • 10:57p, 1/15/24
AG
Gap said:
Most all of Vivek's voters will go to DeSantis. If they wanted to vote for Trump, they already would have been doing so.
Simply no proof to back that up...especially when exit polling said that DeSantis was the most popular choice when voters were asked "who would you never vote for?"...
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TexAgs91
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In reply to BigRobSA • 10:58p, 1/15/24
AG
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to SA68AG • 11:01p, 1/15/24
AG
SA68AG said:
Ag with kids said:
shack009 said:
stallion6 said:
C@LAg said:
Trump has been the Dems ***** for 8 years now. That is not going to stop any time soon.

1. No major legislation passed on his watch.

2. He spent $8TT that the dems gorged on, as did the Republicans. S much for him being "conservative".

3. He got used and abused by the Executive branch, who worked against him

4. The military hated him so much they actively worked against him

5. Republican leadership hated and still hates him and barely is willing to work with him. He is going to bring down the ticket in one or both houses.

6. DOJ has tied him up for pretty much the entire time.

7. He is bleeding millions in ongoing lawsuits that divide his time.

8. He has almost no useful or powerful allies. Anywhere.

The senile buffoon in the White House who cannot prepare cereal for himself is going to beat him in the general election. For a second time.

He is a dead candidate walking.
The military did not hate Trump. Just Liberal, Woke Milley.


The Milley that Trump appointed?
Is there a person that Trump appointed that Trump hasn't booted to the curb and MAGA still likes?
Mike Pompeo
Are you sure?

Quote:
Another senior official in the Trump administration has come out and stated that the former president is accused of serious crimes, hamstringing the Donald Trump and his allies' ability to spin his latest legal development.

Ex-Secretary of State [url=https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/mike-pompeo][/url]Mike Pompeo appeared on Fox & Friends on Tuesday and delivered a sobering assessment of the charges against his former boss which dismantled the assertion Mr Trump's allies have pushed on social media seeking to explain away the boxes of documents and classified materials at Mar-a-Lago as the president's own property.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 11:01p, 1/15/24
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.

That's when the defacto party leader, the PotUS, should step in and lead. Trump doesn't have leadership skills.
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Pookers
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 11:02p, 1/15/24
AG
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.
The GOP is the party of managed decline. They have zero interest in doing anything to fix any of our nation's issues.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to shack009 • 11:03p, 1/15/24
AG
shack009 said:
DeSantis' speech was like 2 minutes long, it's easy for networks to show that.

Trump droned on and on about his family for that amount of time. Trump was talking about Melania's mom in heaven and her really lonely dad and about how Barron is tall but would rather play soccer than basketball.
Oh.

The important stuff for America.
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to shack009 • 11:03p, 1/15/24
shack009 said:
Foreverconservative said:
Haley spent $37 million
DeSantis spent $35 million
All others spent $33 million
Trump spent $18.5 million

Trump won all 99 counties

Haley won't win her home state
Desantis won't win Florida


Trump spent a lot more than that. It just all went to attorneys.


Why is it funny that a major political party is trying to interfere with the will of the people with bull**** political prosecutions?
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Ag with kids
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In reply to FireAg • 11:04p, 1/15/24
AG
FireAg said:
Agthatbuilds said:
I think we can put the "the media wants Trump to win so they can make him lose next November" theories to bed...there's no conspiracy to get Trump to win the primaries...they're scared ****less of him...
Why?

What can he do to them? Tweet nasty things?
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 11:04p, 1/15/24
AG
Jack Boyette said:
shack009 said:
Foreverconservative said:
Haley spent $37 million
DeSantis spent $35 million
All others spent $33 million
Trump spent $18.5 million

Trump won all 99 counties

Haley won't win her home state
Desantis won't win Florida


Trump spent a lot more than that. It just all went to attorneys.


Why is it funny that a major political party is trying to interfere with the will of the people with bull**** political prosecutions?
It's funny because Trump supporters are paying a billionaire's legal bills?
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Rapier108
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In reply to Ag with kids • 11:05p, 1/15/24
Ag with kids said:
Agthatbuilds said:
RGLAG85 said:
aggie93 said:
willtackleforfood said:

Quote:
I'm less and less inclined to vote for Trump the more he and his supporters act like children.

Oh no, whatever will he do?
The Trump strategy that he doesn't need your vote is an interesting one. It's like you are doing all you can to push people away because you like to smack talk. Cool.
This person, like many of the DeSantis fanboys on here, were never voting for the republican candidate. Hth.


What sort of bull**** attitude is this? What's your angle? I'm seriously asking to what advantage you think ****ting on supporters of Republicans not named Trump gets you. And by you, I mean maga people in general.

If I choose not to vote for Trump in the general, its likely because his synchopats have driven me away.
Trump supporters don't care how many people they have to step on or kick out of the way. There is only one goal - vote Trump.

If it hurts Trump later because they pushed people away, they'll just blame those people. It can't be their fault or Trump's fault.
Bingo, this exactly.

They've already set the stage to blame DeSantis when Trump loses the general. Oh, and fraud of course.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Jack Boyette
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In reply to Pookers • 11:05p, 1/15/24
Pookers said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.
The GOP is the party of managed decline. They have zero interest in doing anything to fix any of our nation's issues.


No, Republicans just don't believe that government solves very many problems. It causes them.
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BigD_03
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In reply to Pookers • 11:06p, 1/15/24
Pookers said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.
The GOP is the party of managed decline. They have zero interest in doing anything to fix any of our nation's issues.


And you think the open border Democrats do? They had a super majority and did NONE of the things they campaign and complain about. Why do you think that is?

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Jack Boyette
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In reply to Rapier108 • 11:06p, 1/15/24
Rapier108 said:
Ag with kids said:
Agthatbuilds said:
RGLAG85 said:
aggie93 said:
willtackleforfood said:

Quote:
I'm less and less inclined to vote for Trump the more he and his supporters act like children.

Oh no, whatever will he do?
The Trump strategy that he doesn't need your vote is an interesting one. It's like you are doing all you can to push people away because you like to smack talk. Cool.
This person, like many of the DeSantis fanboys on here, were never voting for the republican candidate. Hth.


What sort of bull**** attitude is this? What's your angle? I'm seriously asking to what advantage you think ****ting on supporters of Republicans not named Trump gets you. And by you, I mean maga people in general.

If I choose not to vote for Trump in the general, its likely because his synchopats have driven me away.
Trump supporters don't care how many people they have to step on or kick out of the way. There is only one goal - vote Trump.

If it hurts Trump later because they pushed people away, they'll just blame those people. It can't be their fault or Trump's fault.
Bingo, this exactly.

They've already set the stage to blame DeSantis when Trump loses the general. Oh, and fraud of course.


Pretty ironic from Never Trumpers. Talk about obtuse.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to BigRobSA • 11:06p, 1/15/24
AG
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.

That's when the defacto party leader, the PotUS, should step in and lead. Trump doesn't have leadership skills.

No, the problem was they let themselves be duped by Hillary's fake Russia propaganda. You don't just squander their once in 40 year control of Congress.

InB4 yes you do
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Ag with kids
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In reply to FireAg • 11:07p, 1/15/24
AG
FireAg said:
Gap said:
Most all of Vivek's voters will go to DeSantis. If they wanted to vote for Trump, they already would have been doing so.
Simply no proof to back that up...especially when exit polling said that DeSantis was the most popular choice when voters were asked "who would you never vote for?"...
Well, there is this thing called math. The hardcore Trump supporters don't like DeSantis because he was disloyal to Trump. So, they would definitely say that.

Haley supporters are left of center. So they would definitely say that.

There's your most popular choice.
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Pookers
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In reply to Jack Boyette • 11:08p, 1/15/24
AG
Jack Boyette said:
Pookers said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.
The GOP is the party of managed decline. They have zero interest in doing anything to fix any of our nation's issues.


No, Republicans just don't believe that government solves very many problems. It causes them.
Yes, its why they passed the patriot act (and continue extend it), failed to get rid of Obamacare, vote for FISA court extensions, and send money to Ukraine. Truly the party of limited government.

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Ag with kids
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In reply to TexAgs91 • 11:08p, 1/15/24
AG
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
BigRobSA said:
TexAgs91 said:
Frok said:
Trump will just do executive orders that will be undone by the next guy.

The GOP controlled Congress in 2017 were to blame. Like Republicans always do, they snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory and did nothing with their time.


Didn't help that Trump has zero leadership skill.


Didn't help that the entire GOP congress didn't either. Maybe Republicans can't govern.


It's not on them, it's on the PotUS to lead his party in Congress. Trump doesn't have it. Nor do many in Congress, either, but it's not on them.


Yes it is. It's the first GOP congress we had in 40 years. You don't just squander that opportunity. When they got control they had no idea what to do with it.

That's when the defacto party leader, the PotUS, should step in and lead. Trump doesn't have leadership skills.

No, the problem was they let themselves be duped by Hillary's fake Russia propaganda. You don't just squander their once in 40 year control of Congress.

InB4 yes you do
Then why did he?
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