zooguy96 said:

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Well, that sucked. Waste of 2 hours. Worst in the series. One of the worst movies I've seen. Horrible writing. Predictable plot.

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I agree. That family (all of them sans the little girl) also annoyed me the entire freaking movie.

It was fun. And the dinosaur herd all popping their heads out of the valley with the OG John Williams theme was worth the price.

I thought for sure they were going to make those things make a heart with their tails because that scene was so cheesy.

I think we all know what that scene is gonna be in the unrated version.

bagger05 said:

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I think we all know what that scene is gonna be in the unrated version.

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Well, they were there for a DNA sample!

So does Gareth Edwards suck? Even Rogue One had another guy do 5 weeks of reshoots and it's unclear who gets credit for what.

Awesome with visuals. Not so much with story.

That said, Edwards was a last-minute, hired hand on this one and had basically no time to change the script, so I don't put the story issues on him this go around.

Universal rushed the hell out of this thing to fill a suddenly empty summer 2025 slot on their slate. I had hoped/assumed that writer David Koepp returning to the franchise + the producing power of a more involved Spielberg would be enough to overcome the rushed pre-production/production schedule, but unfortunately even they couldn't pull it off in the end.

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I'll bet you a hundred dollars it's one of the top five grossing movies of the year

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So now that Superman has flown past it, Wicked 2 will fly past it (tongue in cheek), Avatar 3 is guaranteed, and Zootopia hasn't even entered the chat…

Are you going to go ahead and pay me? Or are we accruing interest on your lost bet until Dec?

Cue the UPS delivery of 10,000 pennies.

Wow, you really are desperate for cash, aren't you?

Also… you're not very good with numbers, are you?

$322M worldwide = Jurassic World Rebirth's first five days
$220M worldwide = Superman's first five days (including early Amazon fan screenings)

Yes, Superman has better word-of-mouth, and will likely have a better second weekend hold, but current estimates still only have it eventually landing somewhere between $500M and $650M worldwide. While Jurassic World Rebirth is currently performing at about 85% of Jurassic World Dominion's global pace, suggesting a likely worldwide total somewhere between $650M and $800M.

Could Superman potentially surpass it? Maybe? But in no world has Superman already "flown past it." Where are you even getting that?

Either way, that still leaves…

$995M worldwide - Lilo & Stitch
$955M worldwide - A Minecraft Movie

… which Rebirth definitely won't pass.

And then, most likely, in order of release…

- The Fantastic Four: First Steps
- Wicked: For Good
- Zootopia 2
- Avatar: Fire and Ash

… are the remaining challengers/candidates. Of those, Avatar: Fire and Ash will obviously surpass it as well, as will, almost assuredly, Zootopia 2. Which, in theory, leaves Rebirth, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Wicked: For Good competing for the fifth spot. Of those, the top choice would be Wicked: For Good, but the first Wicked "only" made $756M worldwide, and with Wicked: For Good reportedly featuring worse music, being marketed with slightly less fanfare, and facing both Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash in the month after its release, there's no guarantee it's going to surpass or even match its predecessor.

In otherwise words, in no way am I throwing in the towel yet.

Nor is there any kind of accruing interest, as we never once discussed anything of the sort.

Will you likely win our bet?

Probably so.

But even if it wasn't close, simply due to how much I can't stand you, I wouldn't pay you until the very last possible minute anyway. Also, the 10,000 pennies idea isn't a bad one either.

So this is much better discussion than the endless bickering that normally fills this board.

Just so I am clear. Is the wager that this dino movie would be in top five of worldwide box office for 2025? Or is it something else?

At some point early in the year I told 20ag07 that Rebirth will be "one of the top five grossing movies of the year." At which point, if I recall correctly, he asked domestic or worldwide, to which I replied that it doesn't matter, and now I honestly can't remember which we ultimately landed on, as I haven't been obsessing over this like 20ag07 has. Either way, it was for a hundred dollars, and I think to a charity of our choosing?

I followed the reply/thread, and I have no idea what "Bet not top 5 domestic" means, as that could either imply "I'm betting it won't be in the top five domestic" - or - "we're not betting top 5 domestic, thus we're betting top 5 international."

Could poor wording/a technicality come into play?!

Also, I must have been imagining the charity thing...

TCTTS said:

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I followed the reply/thread, and I have no idea what "Bet not top 5 domestic" means, as that could either imply "I'm betting it won't be in the top five domestic" - or - "we're not betting top five domestic, thus we're betting top 5 international."

Could poor wording/a technicality come into play?!

Also, I must have been imagining the charity thing...

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Will be interesting to see the end result here. There isn't anything further coming out this year that moves the needle for me, so top five domestic seems possible (but not likely). Fun times!!

Early look at TC and 07 settling up on December 31, 2025.

But which one will be stomping his foot on the table?

It was very clear that I meant "not in the top 5 domestic", which is definitely happening.

You're the one who introduced money on this wanting to be right, not me.

Cinco Ranch Aggie said:

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But which one will be stomping his foot on the table?

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I really don't know. I decided to look at a little closer. I don't keep up with Box Office like I used to.

1) We can all assume Avatar 3, Lilo & Stitch and Minecraft will finish above anything else this year. I'm sure Avatar is at least like a $650m movie domestic just on the visuals even if it is #3 in the series.

Lilo & Stitch is at $414m with a month of summer left - so maybe $435-$450?
Minecraft is at $420m, probably just about done.

2) Jurassic Rebirth is at $237m after 13 days, but its bounce rate on the 2nd weekend wasnt that bad - $56%. A lot of the recent Marvel movies have been condemned for being >70%. Can it make it to $300m? $350m?
Its greatest strength over both Superman and Fantastic Four will be that you don't have to know a ****-ton of characters to follow the story. Superman has 3 villains, of which most people only known 1, and multiple heroes, of which most people know Supes and GL.

3) I'd say everyday knowledge of the Fantastic Four is pretty low and your average viewer will have to stomach this isn't the same Earth as all the other Marvel movies and while Mando is very well know on TV, he's not just a "must watch" level guy. The other 3 are all good actors, but same thing. You know a lot of media buzz will be that the FF4 is cursed based on previous incarnations. i think FF's biggest box office strength might be in they are playing possum and introduce RDJ's Dr. Doom near the end. That'll put asses in the seats. Otherwise, what was the last "original" Marvel movie (not a sequel or a team-up) to hit $300m or $350 m? The answer is Captain Marvel making $426m in 2019 - that was a lifetime ago.

Meanwhile, all you have to know for Jurassic is - Scarlet Johannsen and a bunch of disposables fight dinosaurs. turn your brain off and enjoy.

4) Supes & FF will weigh against each other being released so closely together - movies are expensive AF. More people are likely to pick one or the other than see both.

5) Wicked 2 - and I love the original - will not make the same $, especially without a similar end # to Defying Gravity. Even though I really enjoyed it, having seen the Broadway show - I was mostly just waiting for the end, and I have to think a lot of multiple viewings happened for the original because the last 8-10 minutes are just as breathtaking as anything you'll see. The first one made $473m. If it follows the musical, the second one is more somber and the original music doesn't have the one show stopper like DG - If it makes 2/3 the original box, that would be $317m.

6) Zootopia 2 - This is a 2 pump chump waiting to happen - kids see it around Thanksgiving weekend and a bit more at Christmas, but this is the follow-up to a not very good movie that had a catchy Shakira song and was released during a time when Disney oculd have released 2 hours of Walt taking a dump and made $300m. It only made $341m back then it doesn't have the princess power or the universal appeal of Inside Out.



So that means a two-fer of FF4, Smashing Lad, Zootopia 2 and Wicked 2 all need to hit for than Jurassic World. Probably be a little closer than we think.

"Bet not top 5 domestic"

- "[The] Bet [is that Jurassic World Rebirth will] not [be in the] top 5 domestic"

- "[The] Bet [is top 5 international] not top 5 domestic"

- "[The] Bet [is] not top 5 domestic [Bet is top 5 international instead]"

- "Bet not... [instead] top [off] 5 domestic [beers] (as in, "Let's not bet. Instead, let's drink the top five domestic beers to celebrate cinema in general)

I mostly agree with your analysis, except Zootopia 2 is going to make a ton of money. The first was original animated movie with no major marketing hook. Its been on Disney+ gaining fans for years. Its going to make a ton of money. $400mill+

Exactly. Great analysis.

You're probably right.

veryfuller said:

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I mostly agree with your analysis, except Zootopia 2 is going to make a ton of money. The first was original animated movie with no major marketing hook. Its been on Disney+ gaining fans for years. Its going to make a ton of money. $400mill+

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How about we bet that if it makes less than 400 million domestic, I can use a bulldozer to dump $10,000 in nickels on 20ag07's roof, but you have to rent the bulldozer?

We need WatchOle to banhammer posters that insist on stirring crap up on this board.

I don't agree with everything that TCTTS posts on this board, but it's a really cool thing that we have a bit of insight into some of these movies that otherwise we wouldn't. Guy obviously loves movies and talking about them, and then we get 2007ag that just wants to stir **** up for no good reason with him. (I also think TCTTS should use the ignore function more liberally because my man... you let these trolls get to you way too easy, just ignore them)

Whether rebirth ends up top 5, or 6th or maybe 7th, it still did exactly what universal wanted and made them big bags of money. I'd argue they never intended to make a good movie, the 7th Jurassic movie at this point is just about milking that cow dry so semantics about its box office performance are irrelevant. They're also going to sell a bunch of licensed clothing and toys, so you can't just look at the gross and close the book on the movie.

It's gotta be an envy thing, right? Like Amadeus or Talented Mr. Ripley.

Your post made me realize you could do a biopic about dunkin donuts vs shipleys va crispy Kreme and call it The Talented Mr. Shipley

The Original Houston 1836 said:

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Your post made me realize you could do a biopic about dunkin donuts vs shipleys va crispy Kreme and call it The Talented Mr. Shipley

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Lol, nice.

What was trolling?

He didn't like my reaction to the trailer (which was terrible). I was correct that the trailer was an indicator of a bad movie. He then decided to throw around money about how correct he was (he was not).

We SHOULD be able to have conversations about what looks good, what looks bad, how it's likely to perform at the box office, and what real actual people who post here have actually seen.

Ah, yes, your usual revisionist history bull*****

First of all, I could not care less what you thought of the trailer, quality-wise, whether you thought it was going to be a "bad movie," etc. Your opinions in that regard are irrelevant to me.

Rather, you said, and I quote, "I think this one's gonna tank- ScarJo didn't movie the needle" and THAT is what I was clearly responding to, re: its FINANCIAL prospects. I arbitrarily offered up my "top five" quip, but the heart of my point - obviously - was that it was NOT going to "tank." THAT'S the only point I was trying to make, a point which I was undeniably right about, seeing as it's still going to finish in the top ten for year, and no movie finishing in the top ten can be considered one that "tanked." Not by you or anyone else.

But now here you are twisting facts and, in the process, trying to create nonsense drama about what conversations are and aren't allowed here, and it's all just so stupid and manufactured, like most of the bull**** you and others often direct my way.

A top 10 ABSOLUTELY can be a tanked outcome.

MI (which you also incessantly pimped) will certainly be considered that too.

I was correct- the movie was bad, ScarJo did NOT move the needle (as it will fall well south of Dominion), and bad movies don't leg out.

Under no circumstances can a profitable blockbuster (which this will absolutely be), among the top ten highest grossing movies of the year, be considered a blockbuster that "tanked."

Failed to meet its lofty box office expectations? Sure.

One of the lowest-grossing entries in the franchise? Yep.

But "tanked" it did not.

Not in any sense of the word.

Especially considering a sequel is already being discussed.

If anything, this proves once and for all how you'll rationalize literally anything in your wildly obsessive grudge against me.

Going forward I'm just going to assume TC slept with 07's ex-girlfriend at some point, because the non-stop vitriol geared at one person who you don't actually know is really ridiculous. Thought you would have learned your lesson last week.

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Under no circumstances can a profitable blockbuster (which this will absolutely be), among the top ten highest grossing movies of the year, be considered a blockbuster that "tanked."

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Yes it can. And you of all producer people would know this.

If you have a franchise, with 7, in what is considered a "rebirth", you're thinking about 8 and 9. Period. An 8 "being discussed" is nothing.

Now you're not there.

You're obviously not doing it cheaper, and your returns are definitely diminishing, especially because of how bad your last outings were.

So the fact that 7 has already made enough money to justify 8 means nothing because they were clearly planning for 8, but because 7 underperformed, 8 is untenable, even though 8 is all but guaranteed now?

Do you hear yourself?