There's no way of knowing either way. Both possibilites require "leaps of logic" really. If you look at Gus' expression when Jesse tells him the kid was poisoned, he looks pretty taken aback by that.
Either way, it has been discussed and analyzed as much as possible with the information we have, and Vince has said all questions will be answered next episode.
Either way, it has been discussed and analyzed as much as possible with the information we have, and Vince has said all questions will be answered next episode.