oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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VaterAg said:

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Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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oh no said:

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VaterAg said:

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Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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are we mass mailing all the ballots out?

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VaterAg said:

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the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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oh no said:

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VaterAg said:

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the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever

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pandering commie theater kid is a much better candidate though.

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No Spin Ag said:

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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If ever a seat was going to flip blue, it's now.

I still don't think it will happen, but it is as perfect a political storm as there could ever be for a Dem (unpopular GOP candidate and president and a Dem candidate that actually appeals outside of the woke deep blue cities).

IF it were to happen, it's only because Talarico drew the winning lottery for Texas politics.

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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VaterAg said:

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the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever

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pandering commie theater kid is a much better candidate though.

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You won't admit Talarico is a much better candidate than Harris? Oh come on, now. Although I'd be swayed if you showed me a Fox News poll that showed her ahead by 3 points in tx 100 days prior to the 24 election.

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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Quote:

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You won't admit Talarico is a much better candidate than Harris? Oh come on, now.

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nortex97 said:

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And Trump is more popular than any other 2nd term president with the GOP base, including in Texas. Mail in ballot fraud won't gin up 82 million 'votes' in 2026.

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Old McDonald said:

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Teslag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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Teslag said:

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Old McDonald said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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It's not risky to hitck his wagon to Trump in this state. He won by double digits in 2024. Wasn't it like 14%.

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unfortunately for paxton, it isn't 2024 anymore

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Two years isn't enough to go flip 14%. Not even close. Why do you do this to yourself?

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did i say it would flip?

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Saying it's remotely close is just as ridiculous

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saying it's close is less ridiculous at this stage than saying it's a blowout paxton win. polls and prediction markets have the race even, slightly tilted paxton's way. the congressional generic ballot was R+3 in 2024; as it stands it's looking like it'll be in the neighborhood of D+5-7 this cycle.

i'm on record stating i believe paxton wins, albeit closer than the allred and hegar races. haven't seen anything to change my mind on that yet.

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MemphisAg1 said:

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nortex97 said:

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And Trump is more popular than any other 2nd term president with the GOP base, including in Texas. Mail in ballot fraud won't gin up 82 million 'votes' in 2026.

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Because he's such a flawed candidate, the only thing Paxton has going for him is Trump's endorsement.

And the bloom has come off of Trump's rose this year. Plenty of polls from a variety of sources make that clear.

Hard to believe Texans would elect a far-left loony like Talarico, but he is slick. Reminds me a bit of Bill Clinton.

Who knows what voters' mood will be like three months from now? Gas approaching five dollars wouldn't be good for any R candidate, especially a weak one like Paxton with all of his baggage.

I'm not ready to say that Talarico will win, but I wouldn't rule it out yet either.

Hopefully the R party puts the money behind Paxton to highlight Talarico's far-left, loony positions that don't resonate with the majority of Texans.

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nortex97 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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If ever a seat was going to flip blue, it's now.

I still don't think it will happen, but it is as perfect a political storm as there could ever be for a Dem (unpopular GOP candidate and president and a Dem candidate that actually appeals outside of the woke deep blue cities).

IF it were to happen, it's only because Talarico drew the winning lottery for Texas politics.

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There's no reason to think this is even close to flipping to the commies this cycle. If it were, there would be something like Ossoff's $42 million war chest pumping out ads in Houston and Dallas. Trump is going to throw some cash to shore it up and then the Dems will focus funding Iowa and Ohio where they have more favorable media costs/opportunities. Any dime they spend in Texas is just setting money on fire for them, when their pick up opportunities are up north.

And Trump is more popular than any other 2nd term president with the GOP base, including in Texas. Mail in ballot fraud won't gin up 82 million 'votes' in 2026.

If they were really clever, they'd also subtly fund Darlene Graham Nardone in South Carolina as I could see her functionally/actually flipping to caucus with Schumer if she wins the primary.

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Old McDonald said:

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Gigem314 said:

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Old McDonald said:

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calling talarico a heretic is nothing more than political virtue signaling for evangelicals.

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But you referring to any Christian right of center as "cult of evangelicalism" isn't political virtue signaling? Of course it is, and you know it is...you're just upset that people don't like your candidate of choice.

At least Talarico critics have presented actual evidence in this thread of him talking about his religious beliefs that do not align with basic Christian doctrine.

You on the other hand have done nothing but shout insults at anyone that dare question him while echoing the same platitudes about Paxton and Trump being bad.

Yet you act like you're some kind of morally superior authority on this thread, when you're the exact opposite.

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that would have been virtue signaling had i done that, but i did not. evangelicals don't even comprise a majority of right-of-center Christians.

accusations of talarico's pluralistic views being heretical i understand. on the other counts, it's mostly just hyperbole and evangelical dogma which is hard to take seriously.

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nortex97 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

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No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

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If ever a seat was going to flip blue, it's now.

I still don't think it will happen, but it is as perfect a political storm as there could ever be for a Dem (unpopular GOP candidate and president and a Dem candidate that actually appeals outside of the woke deep blue cities).

IF it were to happen, it's only because Talarico drew the winning lottery for Texas politics.

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There's no reason to think this is even close to flipping to the commies this cycle. If it were, there would be something like Ossoff's $42 million war chest pumping out ads in Houston and Dallas. Trump is going to throw some cash to shore it up and then the Dems will focus funding Iowa and Ohio where they have more favorable media costs/opportunities. Any dime they spend in Texas is just setting money on fire for them, when their pick up opportunities are up north.

And Trump is more popular than any other 2nd term president with the GOP base, including in Texas. Mail in ballot fraud won't gin up 82 million 'votes' in 2026.

If they were really clever, they'd also subtly fund Darlene Graham Nardone in South Carolina as I could see her functionally/actually flipping to caucus with Schumer if she wins the primary.

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Ag87H2O said:

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It's clear the Democrats just picked up the Cornyn RINO playbook talking points and are using them against Paxton.

It didn't work in the runoff, and it won't work in the general. They greatly overestimate the popularity of Talarico. The only thing I give them is I do think Democrats are more motivated to turn out in this election, but it won't be enough to overcome Talarico's massive negatives. I think Paxton wins by between 4-8 points.

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oh no said:

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The number of signs and bumper stickers and overall enthusiasm for Robert Francis fake Mexican real pandejo vs the maybe one sign or sticker anyone has ever seen for freak-weirdo is an anecdotal clue indicating that some of these polls may be bull spat. Republicans, conservatives and any anti-communists can't take it for granted though, like they've done in the past, especially for midterms. Need to show up and vote.

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No Spin Ag said:

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nortex97 said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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VaterAg said:

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oh no said:

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Two years is enough to flip or turn away a bunch of Trump voters? What do you think they are thinking? "Hey the news says tariffs are bad. Let's try communism instead!" Or is it, "hey the news says the deportations I voted for are bad. Let's vote for open borders guy this time!"

---

No, very few Trump voters will change their position completely and vote for Talarico. He could, however motivate many who sat out in '24 because the dems put up the worst or second worst candidate ever to actually cast a ballot this go around. Trump fatigue is a huge motivation and his approval rating is in the 30s. Refer to '20 as an example of high voter turnout.

---

If ever a seat was going to flip blue, it's now.

I still don't think it will happen, but it is as perfect a political storm as there could ever be for a Dem (unpopular GOP candidate and president and a Dem candidate that actually appeals outside of the woke deep blue cities).

IF it were to happen, it's only because Talarico drew the winning lottery for Texas politics.

---

There's no reason to think this is even close to flipping to the commies this cycle. If it were, there would be something like Ossoff's $42 million war chest pumping out ads in Houston and Dallas. Trump is going to throw some cash to shore it up and then the Dems will focus funding Iowa and Ohio where they have more favorable media costs/opportunities. Any dime they spend in Texas is just setting money on fire for them, when their pick up opportunities are up north.

And Trump is more popular than any other 2nd term president with the GOP base, including in Texas. Mail in ballot fraud won't gin up 82 million 'votes' in 2026.

If they were really clever, they'd also subtly fund Darlene Graham Nardone in South Carolina as I could see her functionally/actually flipping to caucus with Schumer if she wins the primary.

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Agreed.

Money should be spent in any other race than this one. Talarico being ahead in the polls means nothing in July. Kamala was "ahead" in the polls in August and she still got her ass handed to her.

That's why I said IF it were to happen it would only be because everything that could possibly go right for Talarico did. I don't see him winning. At best, he loses by less than Beto did, but loses nonetheless.

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flown-the-coop said:

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Paxton has access to plenty of money.

The "bloom" has not fallen off Trump. Polling is terrible but so is the nonstop attack on anything and everything Trump does.

Polling showed Paxton within the MOE before the runoff election that turned out 64% to 36%.

There is simply jot real reason to flood the zone with commercials people get exhausted by. And Paxton is better right now keeping his warts at home.

Talarico loses by double digits in a race called before its time for Biden to have his nighty nighty ice cream and puts his Pampers Goodnights on.

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oh no said:

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Kill your babies because it's in the bible since mary had a choice to have Jesus.

When will you explain support for open borders, DEI since being white is spreading an infection, defunding police, climate alarmism, etc?

Why is communism going to be good for us and work here?

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Old McDonald said:

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oh no said:

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Kill your babies because it's in the bible since mary had a choice to have Jesus.

When will you explain support for open borders, DEI since being white is spreading an infection, defunding police, climate alarmism, etc?

Why is communism going to be good for us and work here?

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i do not support or believe in any of these, so probably never

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