Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

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Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

Cornyn won by 10% in 2020.

Cruz by 8.5% in 2024 over Allred.

The only recent close senate election was Cruz-Beto in 2018.

MemphisAg1 said:

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No way in hell a real Republican endorses a far left nut like Talarico.

This exercise is helpful for flushing out all of the fakers.

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Exactly. I think we are going to find out that there have been a lot of Democrats pretending to be Republicans because that's the only way they could get elected in Texas. That's how you get Cornyn, Phelan, Burrows types in leadership. They talk a good game, and vote marginally conservative just enough to say they are Repubulican, but when it gets down to nut cracking time on conservative issues they fold up like a cheap umbrella. And when they get exposed or beat by a real conservative, the temper tantrums are epic.

not going to lament primarying corn brisket until Paxton loses. Paxton will be a far better senator if he gets in. His campaign needs to get going soon though. the big conservative pacs and the RNC have some competitive races all around the country to figure out how to allocate capital, but they need to realize this isn't a walk in the park and it isn't Cruz v Robert Francis or Allred or Cornyn vs Hagar. The theater kid is fooling a lot of people.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Cornyn won by 10% in 2020.

Cruz by 8.5% in 2024 over Allred.

The only recent close senate election was Cruz-Beto in 2018.

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But they weren't slam-dunk landslides, even as bad as their opponents were, with Cruz/Cornyn having no personal baggage. I don't think Cornyn would have won by 10% this cycle and I feel like this race is going to be somewhere between Cruz-Beto and Cruz-Allred.

10% is a landslide, particularly in a challenging election like 2020. To characterize the 2020 or 2024 Senate elections as close or tightly contested is serious cope.

Also not "pretending" like it is a Paxton issue. He has the highest unfavorables of any elected official in Texas and it isn't even close.

Abbott, Hunt, Cornyn, event Cruz would be ahead comfortably.

Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

---

Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

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Paxton is mostly likely gonna win by 3-4%

Cornyn and Cruz won the last two senate ejections by 10% and 9% respectively, and Cornyn was a double digit favorite over Talarico in the pre primary polls and prediction markets.

This would not be in doubt had Cornyn been nominated because, again, ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general. A relatively small but potentially meaningful number of Cornyn voters will not vote for Paxton.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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10% is a landslide, particularly in a challenging election like 2020. To characterize the 2020 or 2024 Senate elections as close or tightly contested is serious cope.

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Landslide is a moving target, but deal in absolutes if it makes you feel better.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general.

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Not entirely true. I would have either abstained on that one or voted 3rd party. Cornyn was a Dem with an (R) behind his name.

Infection_Ag11 said:

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Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

---

Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

---

Paxton is mostly likely gonna win by 3-4%

Cornyn and Cruz won the last two senate ejections by 10% and 9% respectively, and Cornyn was a double digit favorite over Talarico in the pre primary polls and prediction markets.

This would not be in doubt had Cornyn been nominated because, again, ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general. A relatively small but potentially meaningful number of Cornyn voters will not vote for Paxton.

---

Agreed that Paxton voters would have voted for Cornyn with few abstaining, but I'm not convinced that Cornyn rides to 10% in this cycle. He couldn't even get out of the primary with a MASSIVE advantage in money...that is an image problem.

Slicer97 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general.

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Not entirely true. I would have either abstained on that one or voted 3rd party. Cornyn was a Dem with an (R) behind his name.

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No you wouldn't

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Also not "pretending" like it is a Paxton issue. He has the highest unfavorables of any elected official in Texas and it isn't even close.

Abbott, Hunt, Cornyn, event Cruz would be ahead comfortably.

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Maybe in the end they would win by more (not convinced with Cornyn) but the predictors right now would have it a relatively close race as the media has a tendency to do.

Urban Ag said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Look at the huge lead the polls showed Abdul-al-Sayed had going into yesterday's primary. He just edged it out. In deep blue Michigan.

Methinks Talarico's poll numbers are equally...soft.

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Except Michigan is not deep blue. It's a swing state with a blue lean. The state is over 70% white and much of that working class. And that was a democrat primary anyway. Not sure where you going with this.

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So, subtract my comment about "deep blue". My point remains that Talarico is polling substantially above his likely results.

Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

---

Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

---

Paxton is mostly likely gonna win by 3-4%

Cornyn and Cruz won the last two senate ejections by 10% and 9% respectively, and Cornyn was a double digit favorite over Talarico in the pre primary polls and prediction markets.

This would not be in doubt had Cornyn been nominated because, again, ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general. A relatively small but potentially meaningful number of Cornyn voters will not vote for Paxton.

---

Agreed that Paxton voters would have voted for Cornyn with few abstaining, but I'm not convinced that Cornyn rides to 10% in this cycle. He couldn't even get out of the primary with a MASSIVE advantage in money...that is an image problem.

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An image problem with a specific subset of the base he needed to win a republican primary. If all those voters are voting for him in the general regardless if he gets the nomination, then how he did in the primary is irrelevant with respect to how badly he would have beaten Talarico.

And let's be clear, by "image problem" what we're talking about is political disagreements with Donald Trump. He was seen as someone not in line with the current rabidly populist and isolationist subset of current republican voters that are really and more specifically Trump voters. And that's fine, but it also comes across as a bit silly when the guy they voted for instead is a political crook and serial philanderer who has been impeached and has multiple financial and tax fraud charges to his name. It would seem to me it's insincere to say that's the guy you prefer on the basis of "image".

The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

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Media protecting a Democrat..news at 11

TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

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Media told us Bill and Monica was a personal thing, dodnt affect his job performance.

Squadron7 said:

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Urban Ag said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Look at the huge lead the polls showed Abdul-al-Sayed had going into yesterday's primary. He just edged it out. In deep blue Michigan.

Methinks Talarico's poll numbers are equally...soft.

---

Except Michigan is not deep blue. It's a swing state with a blue lean. The state is over 70% white and much of that working class. And that was a democrat primary anyway. Not sure where you going with this.

---

So, subtract my comment about "deep blue". My point remains that Talarico is polling substantially above his likely results.

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Keeping with the Michigan results.. A Trump backed candidate, Amir Hassan, lost his primary pretty convincingly to Tom Smith who had suspended his campaign the prior month. A Trump endorsement doesn't get you very far these days

Starting to worry a little about this one. I mean a poll here and there is one thing. But there are multiple polls here lately showing the fake Christian dude winning. I know the polls are not always right (see Michigan the other night), but I think the Paxton hate (even though I think alot of it is over blown) is real.

On an anecdotal note, I have not noticed as many rico signs as I would see for beto or even kamala. Maybe they just haven't put them out yet.

Can't stand rico and hope Paxton finds a way to pull this out. Hopefully Texas doesn't have as many unintelligent voters as I fear we may have.

Iced-T14 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Urban Ag said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Look at the huge lead the polls showed Abdul-al-Sayed had going into yesterday's primary. He just edged it out. In deep blue Michigan.

Methinks Talarico's poll numbers are equally...soft.

---

Except Michigan is not deep blue. It's a swing state with a blue lean. The state is over 70% white and much of that working class. And that was a democrat primary anyway. Not sure where you going with this.

---

So, subtract my comment about "deep blue". My point remains that Talarico is polling substantially above his likely results.

---

Keeping with the Michigan results.. A Trump backed candidate, Amir Hassan, lost his primary pretty convincingly to Tom Smith who had suspended his campaign the prior month. A Trump endorsement doesn't get you very far these days

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https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/

Not saying a Trump endorsement is guaranteed or its the reason for every win, but if you believe this site, then 97% of his endorsements have won in this primary cycle.

Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

---

Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

---

Paxton is mostly likely gonna win by 3-4%

Cornyn and Cruz won the last two senate ejections by 10% and 9% respectively, and Cornyn was a double digit favorite over Talarico in the pre primary polls and prediction markets.

This would not be in doubt had Cornyn been nominated because, again, ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general. A relatively small but potentially meaningful number of Cornyn voters will not vote for Paxton.

---

Agreed that Paxton voters would have voted for Cornyn with few abstaining, but I'm not convinced that Cornyn rides to 10% in this cycle. He couldn't even get out of the primary with a MASSIVE advantage in money...that is an image problem.

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The real debate is whether Republicans should keep settling for people like Cornyn. Cornyn is an absolute joke and it's time voters expect more even if there's a small risk associated

Owlagdad said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

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Media told us Bill and Monica was a personal thing, dodnt affect his job performance.

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That was (D)ifferent.

So was Barney Frank poling a Congressional aid in the backside who was barely legal.

Iced-T14 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Urban Ag said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Look at the huge lead the polls showed Abdul-al-Sayed had going into yesterday's primary. He just edged it out. In deep blue Michigan.

Methinks Talarico's poll numbers are equally...soft.

---

Except Michigan is not deep blue. It's a swing state with a blue lean. The state is over 70% white and much of that working class. And that was a democrat primary anyway. Not sure where you going with this.

---

So, subtract my comment about "deep blue". My point remains that Talarico is polling substantially above his likely results.

---

Keeping with the Michigan results.. A Trump backed candidate, Amir Hassan, lost his primary pretty convincingly to Tom Smith who had suspended his campaign the prior month. A Trump endorsement doesn't get you very far these days

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Give us the ratio of Trump endorsed candidates winning their primary vs losing their primary.

I will wait.....

(edit - I didnt realize somoene already posted the fact that 97% of the time, Trump's endorsed candidates win their primaries). But sure - Trump's endorsement 'doesnt get you very far these days'.

Aglaw97 said:

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Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Gigem314 said:

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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If Talarico sneaks in the republican voters in Texas will have nobody to blame but themselves.

It probably won't happen but there was no need for it to ever even be in doubt. Especially not over a degenerate like Paxton.

---

Except the last few Senate elections have been closer than they've needed to be. There aren't any run-away wins anymore. So let's not pretend like it's because of Paxton. This has been a trend for a while, and Cornyn probably wouldn't have fared much better had he squeaked out the primary as he'd done numerous times in the past and done the bare minimum to represent the voters.

---

Paxton is mostly likely gonna win by 3-4%

Cornyn and Cruz won the last two senate ejections by 10% and 9% respectively, and Cornyn was a double digit favorite over Talarico in the pre primary polls and prediction markets.

This would not be in doubt had Cornyn been nominated because, again, ALL Paxton voters would have held their nose and voted for Cornyn in the general. A relatively small but potentially meaningful number of Cornyn voters will not vote for Paxton.

---

Agreed that Paxton voters would have voted for Cornyn with few abstaining, but I'm not convinced that Cornyn rides to 10% in this cycle. He couldn't even get out of the primary with a MASSIVE advantage in money...that is an image problem.

---

The real debate is whether Republicans should keep settling for people like Cornyn. Cornyn is an absolute joke and it's time voters expect more even if there's a small risk associated

---

Cornyn hosed himself with his support for more gun restrictions. That's when he lost me. Although I don't live in TX anymore. I did vote for him the first time he ran and was a supporter.

Polls at this point in the election cycle are intended to shape opinion, not reflect it.

Talarico is certifiably insane. He believes there are 6 biological sexes. Anyone that believes that is mentally ill. The fact that he is also a false prophet should not surprise anyone. Mentally ill people will say just about anything to justify their mental illness.

Iced-T14 said:

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Squadron7 said:

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Urban Ag said:

---

Squadron7 said:

---

Look at the huge lead the polls showed Abdul-al-Sayed had going into yesterday's primary. He just edged it out. In deep blue Michigan.

Methinks Talarico's poll numbers are equally...soft.

---

Except Michigan is not deep blue. It's a swing state with a blue lean. The state is over 70% white and much of that working class. And that was a democrat primary anyway. Not sure where you going with this.

---

So, subtract my comment about "deep blue". My point remains that Talarico is polling substantially above his likely results.

---

Keeping with the Michigan results.. A Trump backed candidate, Amir Hassan, lost his primary pretty convincingly to Tom Smith who had suspended his campaign the prior month. A Trump endorsement doesn't get you very far these days

---

Keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep better at night...

Quote:

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97% of Trump-endorsed candidates won primaries this election cycle

---

[url=https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/][/url]

TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

---

Paxton's problems were of his own making. If you think he's something other than an unscrupulous opportunist, you have been duped. Fortunately, we don't need much from senators except voting the right way, so he should fit right in.

People said in Primarary run off Cornyn would be close but he wasn't.

twk said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

---

Paxton's problems were of his own making. If you think he's something other than an unscrupulous opportunist, you have been duped. Fortunately, we don't need much from senators except voting the right way, so he should fit right in.

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I disagree.

He has been a great attorney general.

He is hated by the Bush old-guard wing of the GOP because he won't give in to neo-con era games they demand he plays. So they dig dirt on him.

Half our problems in the Conservative movement come from the Neo-Con boomers. The other half come from those immersed in groyperism.

Yes - a neo-con and a groyper are still immensely better than a Demcorat at this point. So why they help Socialist Communist Dems is quite confusing to me. Elections have to be won on reasonable consensus and coalition.

Dems understand this far better than we do - they managed to bring the radical LGBTQ movement and radical Islamist into a voting tent together. Yes - it's incoherent and makes no sense.... but they still somehow managed it. For how long remains to be seen.

Quote:

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He has been a great attorney general.

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He's great at issuing press releases. Joined a lot of other Republican AG's in suing the crap out of the Biden administration. But, for the real nuts and bolts work of running the AG's office, not so much.

twk said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

---

Paxton's problems were of his own making. If you think he's something other than an unscrupulous opportunist, you have been duped. Fortunately, we don't need much from senators except voting the right way, so he should fit right in.

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I don't care. The Democrat candidate is INSANE

japantiger said:

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twk said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

---

Paxton's problems were of his own making. If you think he's something other than an unscrupulous opportunist, you have been duped. Fortunately, we don't need much from senators except voting the right way, so he should fit right in.

---

I don't care. The Democrat candidate is INSANE

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This. I don't expect much from any politician character-wise (sad that our society has reached this point), I just need them to vote the right way.

japantiger said:

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twk said:

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TheEternalOptimist said:

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The only reason Paxton has any image problems is because the media is obsessed with attacking him. His legal troubles were complete internal corrupt Texas bs hit jobs. His marriage falling apart, while not great, would never be a big deal for a Democrat - Democrats with personal problems are never held to the same standard by the Texas Tribune, Texas Monthly, Crony Cronicle, DaMN, etc....

---

Paxton's problems were of his own making. If you think he's something other than an unscrupulous opportunist, you have been duped. Fortunately, we don't need much from senators except voting the right way, so he should fit right in.

---

I don't care. The Democrat candidate is INSANE

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I mean sure, fine, but this logic has no limiting principle. There's literally nobody on the right too extreme or too morally unscrupulous for this to apply to.

japantiger said:

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Polls at this point in the election cycle are intended to shape opinion, not reflect it.

Talarico is certifiably insane. He believes there are 6 biological sexes. Anyone that believes that is mentally ill. The fact that he is also a false prophet should not surprise anyone. Mentally ill people will say just about anything to justify their mental illness.

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You know what's worse than that?

The dude is 38 years old and lives with his mother. And shares a checking account with her.

Short of a serious health issue or a temporary, short-term arrangement because of loss of job or something similar, this is the sure sign of a whack job.