Say goodbye Germany, then the rest of the EU

86,503 Views | 749 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Madman
will25u
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medwriter
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nortex97 said:

medwriter said:

I have approximately six months left (to live) and will be going into hospice soon. I will actually be happy to leave this world. I've made peace with my Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ.
Bless you, sorry to hear. I hope this thread makes you laugh a little.
Thank you nortex. I had plenty of good years for which I am so very grateful. But after seven years of battling this and the constant pain, I'm ready to go. Bless you as well, your family, and loved ones. I hope that you all have extraordinarily happy lives.
will25u
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fka ftc
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Whistle Pig said:

Apparently this FKA FTC fellow thinks inflation is high in Europe and France because Trump lost and we didn't appease Putin hard enough. The frogs will protest anything.


I said Trump would have been tougher on Putin, not appeasing him as Biden has done.

If you are going to refer to me, which you shouldn't as you a never right or thoughtful about... well anything, then you should at least not capitalize my username. Very offensive and disrespectful. Lower case acronyms are my chosen pronoun.

But its a good reminder to myself and others here that troll is gonna troll, all the live long day.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
will25u
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Really quick launch schedule. Definitely going to be more than 1 launch a week this year.

Fat Black Swan
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AG
Ghost Mech
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/energy-crisis-germans-gear-up-for-winter-based-on-tiktok-trends/ar-AA13jEPD

Winter is coming. Energy prices have gone up, but heating remains turned down in many homes. Consumers are seeking new ways to keep warm and are getting creative.

Sales figures speak for themselves: During September, online clothing and homeware store Baur said sales of thermal underwear were up by a whopping 558% compared to the same period last year. And sales of classic hot water bottles were also up by 165% and electric blankets by 220%.

As early as August, online marketplace ebay.de also saw an uptick in the purchase of products to keep warm and prepare homes for the winter months. Sales of window seals were up by around 100%, and draft excluders were up by 70%.

There was also high demand for products to generate your own electricity, with sales of solar thermal systems increasing by around 126% and even small wind turbines by around 70%.

But Germany's Fire service association (DFV) is warning against one particular trend in particular: the homemade 'tealight oven' which largely involves assembling two plant pots and several tea light candles.

"These tea light ovens are a real hazard," Carsten-Michael Pix from the DFV's Specialist Fire Services told DW. They're still an open flame that can easily be knocked over or quickly turn into a bigger flame. At the end of the day, they won't heat your room. You'd need hundreds of tealights for that."
Ghost Mech
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https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/europe-wind-drought/


After oil and gas, Europe is now running out of wind

First, in the short term, Europe will face what the Germans are calling a Bibber-Winter ("shivering winter"), while the least well-off Britons will have to choose between "heating and eating," as the tabloids call it. Second, in the long term, Europe's energy crisis will incentive an acceleration toward a zero-carbon future. Wind and solar energy feature heavily in most of those scenarios.

Renewable, but not constant

However, there is a problem with both: They may be renewable, but they are not constant. There are plenty of days when the sun doesn't shine, and lots of times when the wind doesn't blow. Leaving solar to one side, one may think that it matters little when the wind does or doesn't blow, because it all averages out in the end. But that is what this map is here for to demonstrate otherwise.

Wind speeds increased in some places, notably the Balkans and Turkey; in others, they decreased.



Some notable points:

Dark blue covers large areas of the North Sea, northern Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, where wind speeds decreased by 5% to 10%.

The same goes for smaller zones in Ireland, southern France, and the German-Czech border.

However, wind speeds have increased by 5% to 15% in the Balkans and Turkey.

A drop in wind speed can have a major impact on wind turbines, which operate in a "wind speed window" between 14 and 90 km/h (9 and 56 mph).

Last year, the load factor that is, the ratio of actual output to the theoretical maximum dropped by 13% in Germany and the UK and by 15% to 16% in Ireland and the Czech Republic, Les Echos reports.

The 2021 "wind drought" hit Northern Europe particularly hard, especially those countries relying most on wind energy notably Denmark, which gets 44% of its energy from wind, and Ireland, where the share of wind in total energy production is 31%. Other European countries relying heavily on wind include Portugal (26%), Spain (24%), Germany (23%), the UK (22%), and Sweden (19%). In France, which gets most of its power from nuclear, it's just 8%.

As a result of the reduction in average wind speed, Danish energy company rsted reported a loss of 380 ($366) million. German energy company RWE acknowledged a 38% drop in profits last year, although this was from both its wind and solar units combined.



That damn Destro and his weather dominator……

DallasAg 94
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DallasAg 94
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texagbeliever
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When I worked in Retail Energy, back before the winter storm in 2021, my colleagues and I often talked about how Winter (in Texas) would eventually become the biggest stress risk (price exposure). Solar goes to zero value. Wind goes to zero value (though they likely winterize theirs, I bet it isn't perfect) and its intermittency is hard to count on. Further issue for wind, is that the generation normally has longer transmission lines to move the power closer to demand centers. Either off the coast or in remote rural areas. That means a transmission outage during a winter storm would be darn near impossible to repair in a timely fashion.

Renewables are non-resilient sources of energy. I'm guessing this decade we see a big swing back to valuing resiliency over efficiency.
DallasAg 94
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texagbeliever
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Not just energy resiliency but resiliency in many different ways.

Just in time delivery. Was a huge weak spot exposed during covid.
Just enough staffing. Lean workforces have now struggled to hire with a burning out work force.
Non-Interchangeable parts: This is electric vehicles more so Tesla. There are no minor or quick repairs on a Tesla. The tradeoff being fewer parts that can break.
Education choice: The education space has been caught flat footed without adequate choice or means of supporting choice. So when public schools close, enact insane measures, or want to teach your kindergartener about the aspects of gay sex you had no choice to do something better for your child.

Zobel
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AG
I'm guessing we don't, because resiliency means more expensive and people will take short term and cheaper over long term and more expensive every dang time. See: everyone who took it in the shorts with griddy.
74OA
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AG
"Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week."

WOW
Faustus
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74OA said:

"Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week."

WOW
If you were to ship that gas elsewhere, the gas could say goodbye to Germany, and then the rest of the EU.*











*(Germany and the EU might still be said goodbye to at some point in the future.)





74OA
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AG
?????
Faustus
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Just playing with the thread title.

Always appreciate your posts 74.
Ghost Mech
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Massive Protest By Czechs Targets Russia Sanctions, High Prices

Fed up with soaring food, energy and housing costs, tens of thousands of Czech protestors railed against their government on Friday, demanding the resignation of conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala's government, withdrawal from NATO and the negotiation of gas purchases from Russia.

"This is a new national revival and its goal is for the Czech Republic to be independent," said organizer Ladislav Vrabel. "When I see a full square, no one can stop this."

The protests occurred both in the capital city of Prague as well as the second-largest Czech city of Brno. Organized under the slogan of "Czech Republic First," the demonstrations drew their strength from both the left and right wings of Czech politics.

Russia's not our enemy, the government of warmongers is the enemy," one speaker said, according to the Associated Press. Czechia has donated tanks and other heavy weapons to Ukraine, and provided nearly a half million visas to Ukrainian refugees, along with benefits. Protest organizers are also demanding that the refugees not be granted permanent residency.

The protest was the third in a series organized by a group demanding Czechia's withdrawal from NATO and better relations with Russia. As observed in the United States, the Czech government has attempted to marginalize the by calling them "pro-Kremlin propagandist narratives."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices
texagbeliever
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74OA said:

"Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week."

WOW


Spot prices just before settle are a measure of the cost of a marginal amount of supply. While it does point to high inventory levels going into winter it doesn't mean prices are cheap or will be cheap. The volatility of weather and poentional disruption of supply still pose tremendous risks.

Most importantly, the energy costs for industry will have been locked in months ago. Manufacturing and the like is still crushed.
YouBet
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AG
MuchosPollos said:

Massive Protest By Czechs Targets Russia Sanctions, High Prices

Fed up with soaring food, energy and housing costs, tens of thousands of Czech protestors railed against their government on Friday, demanding the resignation of conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala's government, withdrawal from NATO and the negotiation of gas purchases from Russia.

"This is a new national revival and its goal is for the Czech Republic to be independent," said organizer Ladislav Vrabel. "When I see a full square, no one can stop this."

The protests occurred both in the capital city of Prague as well as the second-largest Czech city of Brno. Organized under the slogan of "Czech Republic First," the demonstrations drew their strength from both the left and right wings of Czech politics.

Russia's not our enemy, the government of warmongers is the enemy," one speaker said, according to the Associated Press. Czechia has donated tanks and other heavy weapons to Ukraine, and provided nearly a half million visas to Ukrainian refugees, along with benefits. Protest organizers are also demanding that the refugees not be granted permanent residency.

The protest was the third in a series organized by a group demanding Czechia's withdrawal from NATO and better relations with Russia. As observed in the United States, the Czech government has attempted to marginalize the by calling them "pro-Kremlin propagandist narratives."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-protest-czechs-targets-russia-sanctions-high-prices
Happening all over Europe. France had big protests on Thursday and they are weekly in eastern Germany.
74OA
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AG
texagbeliever said:

74OA said:

"Europe has more natural gas than it knows what to do with. So much, in fact, that spot prices briefly went negative earlier this week."

WOW


Spot prices just before settle are a measure of the cost of a marginal amount of supply. While it does point to high inventory levels going into winter it doesn't mean prices are cheap or will be cheap. The volatility of weather and ptoentional disruption of supply still pose tremendous risks.

Most importantly, the energy costs for industry will have been locked in months ago. Manufacturing and the like is still crushed.
True, but not long ago the EU faced both a critical supply shortage and sky-high prices, to the point it was an open question whether it would make it thru winter without widespread blackouts. Since then, prices (while still expensive) have plummeted, supply is plentiful and there is little question of blackouts or even rationing. Some energy-intensive industries are suffering as you mention, but much of their needs have been subsidized by central governments and are unlikely to fail in the short term. All in all, the EU's energy situation--while still full of risk--has experienced a very positive turn-around in a surprisingly short time.
texagbeliever
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Again what you quoted doesn't say any of those things. Prices are locked in far before the spot settles. If there was a sizable demand not yet settled than prices would be sky high. If you want a better indicator, use the winter package Jan/Feb as an indication of price movement in energy as opposed to spot. Spot could go to $1000 and that doesn't mean winter package goes crazy. Short term demand is driven by more volatile factors.

Think of it like this. There are 100 apples. 98 are bought at $5. However right before the delivery date there are 2 apples no one wants. Those are sold for $0. The price of apples aren't $0 they are $4.90.
titan
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S

A new faction, such as modeled by Georgia Meloni's in Italy, needs to make membership in that a disqualifier for high office.
74OA
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AG
I didn't write the article and feel no need to defend it. I'm just discussing the general EU energy issue.
twk
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74OA said:

I didn't write the article and feel no need to defend it. I'm just discussing the general EU energy issue.
They have all the gas they can store right now, but they will need more than that. They can probably make it without a disaster if the weather cooperates, but that will only be with significant cuts from normal consumption, a steady stream of LNG deliveries, and no disruption of their non-Russian pipelines.
will25u
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Ghost Mech
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"Let's Get Out Of NATO": Discontent Soars Across Europe

Western sanctions against Russia have been considered a powerful foreign policy tool by the US and the EU to paralyze Moscow back to the 'stone age.' Though sanctions against Moscow have entirely backfired, sparking the worst cost-of-living crisis for Europeans in a generation.


In early September, we first noticed a wave of discontent sweeping across Europe as tens of thousands of people took to the city streets to protest soaring electricity bills and the worst inflation in decades. Some countries delivered relief packages to citizens to tame the anger, while other countries did not have the financial capacity to hand out checks.

Tens of thousands of people have marched across metro areas in France, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Germany -- many of them are fed up with sanctions on Russia that have sparked economic ruins for many households and businesses -- but also very surprising, support for NATO's involvement in Ukraine is waning.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lets-get-out-nato-discontent-soars-across-europe-russian-sanctions-backfire















Ghost Mech
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Empty Shelves in German Supermarkets as Inflation Leaves Products Unprofitable

Products ranging from Kellogg's cornflakes to Coca Cola have disappeared from supermarkets throughout Germany, with many shops being left with empty shelves as products become simply unprofitable to sell due to differentials in inflation.

According to a report by Handelsblatt, such surging inflation is now having a significant knock-on effect on the supply of food products within Germany, with companies warring with each other over the pricing of various items.


With the hike in production costs, food giants including the likes of Coca Cola, Pepsi, and Mars have been pushing for German supermarkets to pay higher prices for various products in the hopes of preserving their own profitability.

Retailers in the country however have strongly resisted this, with one supermarket chain in the country going so far as to accuse major companies of "price gouging" and "usury".

The official went on to claim that a number of major companies have now halted deliveries to the chain, something that they alleged is being used to put pressure on supermarkets.


Things do not appear to be much different at other supermarkets throughout the country, with supplies being cut off as retailers refuse to purchase products from various well-known suppliers at increased prices.

"The situation in the industry is critical to catastrophic," Federal Association of the Food Industry general manager Christoph Minhoff remarked regarding the feud, which has seen some individual rows even reportedly ending up in court as companies are unable to come to a compromise

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/10/20/empty-shelves-in-german-supermarkets-as-inflation-leaves-products-unprofitable/

BCG Disciple
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AG
The extent to which foreign policy has been dependent on feel good utopian beliefs is absolutely insane. Everyone one of these protests are justified and should end up ousting every morsel of globalist power from a country's government.

Buckle up. The obvious consequence of shutting the world down for a cold is coming.
AlaskanAg99
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AG
Good lord, threaten to remove NATO. That document has far outlived its usefulness under the old framework.

At the same time let them clearly know any country who's not developing their fracking sector will not see ANY US deliveries of LNG.

And...re work existing trade negotiations. Which needs to be done regardless. Defense is no longer free.
Zobel
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why would we care if they're developing their fracking sector? high prices are good for us.
AlaskanAg99
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It depends entirely on our domestic policy. If new wells aren't being drilled here this is added demand on existing supply. Thus our prices will go up as well.

Global supply needs to increase. Cheap energy is good for us as well.
Zobel
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If domestic prices go up, new wells will be drilled.

Imagine Saudi Arabia telling the US "if you don't explore shale, we won't sell you oil." That's what you're suggesting.
Rossticus
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