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$265 Billion In Added Value To Evaporate From Germany Economy Amid Energy Crisis, Study Warns

BERLIN, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Germany's economy will lose more than 260 billion euros ($265 billion) in added value by 2030 due to the Ukraine war and high energy prices, spelling negative effects for the labour market, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

In comparison with expectations for a peaceful Europe, Germany's price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lower next year and there will be about 240,000 fewer people in employment, said the study published on Tuesday.

The employment level is expected to stay at around this level until 2026, when expansive measures will gradually begin to outweigh the negative effects and lead to a plus of about 60,000 gainfully employed in 2030.

One of the big losers will be the hospitality industry, which was already hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and is likely to feel the pinch of consumers' waning purchasing power.

Energy-intensive sectors, such as the chemical industry and metal production, are also especially likely to be affected.



If energy prices, which have so far shot up by 160%, were to double again, Germany's 2023 economic output would be almost 4% lower than it would have been without the war, according to the study. Under these assumptions, 660,000 fewer people would be employed after three years and still 60,000 fewer in 2030, it said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-economy-lose-265-bln-added-value-due-war-high-energy-prices-study-2022-08-09/

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It's like watching a slow moving train wreck......

Yep, and with the Rhine basically closed now to barges, it sounds like a further spike in energy prices is inevitable, as they are very likely to run out of coal for certain key plants.

Berlin typically only gets a couple inches of rain in August, and September (each). As stated up thread, they depend a lot on their riverine network for transportation of raw materials.

Low water levels also means cooling issues, so even if they have fuel, they may not be able to operate safely.

Lower power, lower output, factories shutting, plus many homes/apartments don't have AC means a sweltering population. Gonna be a lot of pissed off people sitting around in the dark sweating w/o jobs.

Kinda looks like the Arkansas River in Tulsa....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11098545/The-Rhine-runs-DRY-impassable-crucial-coal-barges-Europe-suffers-record-drought.html

Quick Update......yep they are still screwed.

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EU NatGas Soars To Record High As Gazprom Announces New Halt To Flows

European natural gas prices closed at new record highs today... and that was before news of a new gas flow halt by Gazprom was announced.

The Russia gas producer said in a statement that it will halt gas flows via Nord Stream on Aug. 31 for 3 days as the single functioning gas turbine at Portovaya's compressor station requires planned maintenance.



https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-natgas-soars-record-high-gazprom-announces-new-halt-flows

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Germany's Largest Refinery Slashes Output Due To Rhine's Low Water Levels

The current water levels on the Rhine River, a major inland infrastructure transit artery across Germany, are exceptionally low and have made certain parts of the river impassible by barge. Falling waters have already disrupted the flow of commodities and are exacerbating Europe's energy-supply crunch.
The alarming lack of water is contributing to a possible oil supply shock at Germany's largest oil-processing complex located on the banks of the Rhine, which is operated by Shell Plc.

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"Due to the low Rhine water level, we have reduced the capacity of Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rhineland. The situation regarding supply is challenging but carefully managed," the company said in an e-mailed statement to Reuters.

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We outlined last month how falling water levels on the Rhine would make things worse for the largest economy in Europe. Supplies of crude products are running low across the country. Austrian oil and gas firm OMV AG warned two weeks ago that Germany saw a run on diesel and heating fuels.

There is some good news. Rhine water levels are set to increase to 67 centimeters (26.4 inches) by Aug. 22, according to German government data. Also, a fleet of crude tankers carrying diesel is headed to Europe

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MuchosPollos said:

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Putin Says Russia Will Honor Gas Commitment But Flows Will Drop As Much As 20% Of Capacity

ussian President Vladimir Putin eased tensions when he said that Russia would fulfill its commitments to supply natural gas to Europe, but he warned that flows via the Nord Stream pipeline could be curbed soon if sanctions prevent additional maintenance on its components.

Translation: as we predicted, Putin will resume NS1 flows, but at levels at or below the pre-repair "new normal" of 40%.

But he added that flows might fall to some 20% of capacity as soon as next week if a critical pipeline turbine that was undergoing repairs in Canada isn't returned to Russia soon. Putin said that another turbine had to go for maintenance on July 26.

Even before the maintenance began, Gazprom last month cut deliveries on the pipeline to 40% of its capacity, blaming Canadian sanctions that had prevented the return of the turbine being repaired there. European officials have dismissed the turbine explanation as a pretext for Moscow to try and wreak economic havoc on the continent.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-says-russia-will-honor-gas-commitment-flows-will-drop-much-20-capacity

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Putin is playing 4D chess. NATO/EU are playing candy crush.


Judo strategy is based on three elementsrapid movement, flexibility, and leverageeach of which translates into a competitive principle. The first principle requires judo players to move rapidly to new markets and uncontested ground, thus avoiding head-to-head combat.

Putin has often used his participation in judo as a tool of propaganda to support his macho, tough guy image. Almost every profile of Putin includes statements that he is a good, strong, athlete, and an expert with incredible judo skills. He is described as a 'keen judoka' and much is made of him attending 2012 London Olympic Games to watch judo. He received his first-degree black belt when he was 19, and currently holds an 8th degree.



The Russians might not be performing at that well in Ukraine but they sure as hell are beating the crap out of the EU in their economies.....

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Was Putin playing 4D chess and using his JUDO skills (rapid movement, flexibility, and leverage!) when he moronically left over 300 billion parked in U.S. and European banks when his tanks rolled into Ukraine? The frozen funds were about half the war chest in reserves he amassed, amounted to a staggering 20% of a year's GDP for Russia, and should have been easily avoided.

Who could have seen sanctions coming? He's a 4D Chess dictator, not a supercomputer.

The retconning of Putin is pretty funny.

Hey Germans, come get your junk.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/sunken-german-world-war-ii-ships-revealed-danube-river-record-low

I'd totally send them a bill and make demands. Serbia spent $30M removing one wreck.

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Green Party Official Tells Germans To Use Washcloths Instead Of Taking Showers


A top Green Party official has caused controversy by suggesting Germans use washcloths instead of taking showers, as well as buying expensive eco-heating systems that are unaffordable for the average person The comments were made by Baden-Wrttemberg's Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann in response to the energy crisis, which will be exacerbated this winter as a result of gas shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.


"Even the washcloth is a useful invention," the Green politician told Sdwest-Presse.
Bragging about his own eco-credentials, Kretschmann boasted, "I have an electric car, I have a huge photovoltaic system on the roof."


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/green-party-official-tells-germans-use-washcloths-instead-taking-showers

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Just hit those hot spots.....

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Europe Is Now "Powerless" And Its Inflation And Recession Are About To Get Even More Brutal

n yesterday's daily, we noted how an increasing number of US households is struggling to pay their utility bills. Yet, this situation pales in comparison to the price hikes that European consumers are facing. As a case in point, the OFGEM, UK's energy regulator, lifted the energy price cap to 3,549 as of 1 October (from 1,971), adding a warning that prices could get "significantly worse" through 2023.

Indeed, yet another sharp move in European energy prices took benchmark rates to new record-highs. The 1 month forward Dutch TTF contract jumped to 311/MWh, while the 1 month French electricity contract reached a mindboggling 750/MWh. The fact that nobody wants to be short power right now certainly doesn't help either as it reduces liquidity in the market which may have been exacerbated by ICE's decision to increase margin requirements on European gas futures.



https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-now-powerless-and-its-inflation-and-recession-are-about-get-even-more-brutal

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Germany Is Venezuela? Toilet Paper Shortage Looms Amid Energy Crisis


Driven by the imminent energy crisis accelerating across Europe, and policymakers' refusal to acquiesce because "we have to save democracy in Ukraine", the German paper industry is warning of supply bottlenecks for toilet paper.

Martin Krengel, Vice President of the Association "The Paper Industry", said:

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"We are particularly dependent on gas for the production of tissue paper. Without it, we will no longer be able to provide security of supply,"

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According to data provided by Die Papierindustrie, each German citizen uses an average of 134 rolls of toilet paper per year.

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"In the current energy crisis, our top priority is to provide people with this important commodity," Krengel stressed.

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As we previously highlighted, many European countries are already imposing energy rationing in the form of new rules that dictate thermostat controls.

In Spain, at the height of summer, authorities have controversially banned air conditioning from dropping below 27C (80.6F) in all non-residential buildings, including shops, cinemas and cafes.
Onerous fines for those who flout the rules run all the way up to 600,000 euros for "serious violations."


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germany-venezuela-toilet-paper-shortage-looms-amid-energy-crisis

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Spanish Official Warns Of "Winter Of Great Suffering"

A top Spanish official has warned that Europeans are about to endure a "winter of great suffering" as a result of Russia fully suspending gas supplies during the freezing months.

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles made the comments during an appearance on Radio National.

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"We are going to have a winter of great suffering," said the cabinet member, adding, "In Europe, we have to work hard to be ready to deal with it."

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Robles made reference to deliveries by Russian energy giant Gazprom already being throttled and claimed it was politically motivated, although Gazprom claims the real reason is Ukraine refusing to allow the gas to run through its territory.
Despite the energy shortage coming partly as a result of NATO powers seeking to prolong the war between Russia and Ukraine, Robles insisted that support for Ukraine should continue.

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Putin "cannot win," according to Robles, who said, "I want to believe that the political forces will rise to the occasion."

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She added that many in Spain will find it difficult to support gas rationing, despite this being recommended for all member states by EU leadership.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/spanish-official-warns-winter-great-suffering

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"Doomsday Scenario:" 70% Of British Pubs May Not Survive Winter As Power Costs Skyrocket

A troubling survey commissioned by trade publication the Morning Advisor revealed the entire British pub industry could be on the brink of a tsunami of closures this winter if the government fails to intervene in power markets to ease cost pressures.

According to the survey, 70% of respondents say if electricity prices continue to soar, they will be unable to operate and forced to close up shop -- this would dramatically alter the landscape of pubs by next spring.

More than 65% of the pubs surveyed said power costs rose more than 100%, 30% said utility costs jumped 200%, and 8% experienced 500% increases. Most pubs warned they couldn't afford the exponential rise in energy costs.

Heath Ball, managing director of the Frisco Group, which operates three pubs across the southeast of England, offered an apocalyptic warning that pubs were facing a "doomsday scenario" in just a few months when the cold season begins.

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"This energy bill crisis comes on the back of the most testing of times as businesses try to recover from the Covid crisis and I think it poses an even greater threat to the survival of pubs," Ball told the Morning Advertiser.

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He even said some pubs were being rejected new power contacts because utilities deemed them "high risk." Ball said lawmakers need to resolve the energy crisis soon or "find a solution to this now or face mass pub and restaurant closures."

There are more than 46,000 pubs across the UK in 2021, according to British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), with about half of them being independents.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doomsday-scenario-70-british-pubs-wont-survive-winter-power-costs-skyrocket

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German MP Says Russia's Nord Stream 2 "Only Sensible Solution" To Energy Crisis

The Russian energy giant Gazprom is set to reduce its natural gas supply to Germany further at the end of the month, sending power prices to record highs this week. To address the historic energy crisis, one German member of parliament has dreamed up a novel solution: Russia's Nord Stream 2 NatGas pipeline could help solve the crisis.

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"Even if the gas storage facilities are full, there will be enough for about three months this winter. And then what? Ideology has to give way to a real fact-oriented policy… The only sensible solution is to launch Nord Stream 2," Bundestag MP Steffen Kotre told Russian state-owned news agency TASS, who is a member of the German parliamentary committee on energy and climate protection.

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Kotre's comments come as the cost of powering Germany has jumped to a new record high on Thursday. German power prices for next year soared 13% to a mind-numbing 725 euros ($726) a megawatt-hour, piling even more financial pressure on households and businesses.



https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/german-mp-says-russias-nord-stream-2-only-sensible-solution-energy-crisis

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"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up" - Barack Obama. Nice work on all those incredibility powerful sanctions.

Are the Ukrainians really worth destroying economies and freezing to death this winter?

"Peace for our time" becomes "gas for our winter."

Wait, how does zerohedge feel about Ukraine?

Goodness. What a disaster. Real-time suicide.

They are going to have to let Ukraine go and they would not have had to do that if not for insane energy policy.

GAC06 said:

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Wait, how does zerohedge feel about Ukraine?

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Their feelings seem irrelevant considering what they are reporting are actual quotes and sourced from other news agencies.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Hey Germans, come get your junk.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/sunken-german-world-war-ii-ships-revealed-danube-river-record-low

I'd totally send them a bill and make demands. Serbia spent $30M removing one wreck.

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Am I the only one seeing these sunken warships and think that it's pretty neat. No to derail, but that's some fascinating stuff.

Ok, Germany is Venezuela

Help us Global Warming, you're our only hope!

GAC06 said:

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Ok, Germany is Venezuela

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Meh. Bombastic titles are SOP on any platform these days.

I'm looking at the content in the articles. Some undeniably scary stuff happening over there that we don't always get to see in the msm.

pfo said:

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This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.

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Except China has already pledged to buy any Russian energy the West refuses to buy...

Merino wool futures!

Invest now!

The Debt said:

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pfo said:

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This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.

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Except China has already pledged to buy any Russian energy the West refuses to buy...

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That's why Russia is shipping all their excess gas to China instead of just burning it off, right?

Winters for the foreseeable future are going to suck for much of Europe. Until they can build LNG receiving facilities i don't see much relief for them. Who could have ever predicted it, right?

This is almost precisely the position the left would have us in as well but it isn't going to ever happen imo.

Coming soon to a theater near you.

Which do Europeans like least? Nuclear, coal, Fracking, or Freezing?

The Debt said:

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pfo said:

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This move hurts Putin/Russia too. Nat gas is selling for about $44/mmBTU in Germany. That's a phenomenal price.

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Except China has already pledged to buy any Russian energy the West refuses to buy...

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But China is paying Russia much less for that nat gas than Europe was paying for it.

oldcrow91 said:

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Which do Europeans like least? Nuclear, coal, Fracking, or Freezing?

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m
Ask this again in February

This causes me deep joy. To see leftists suffer from their own folly is so sweet...it's so choice..if you have the means..blah blah Ferris bueller

halfastros81 said:

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Winters for the foreseeable future are going to suck for much of Europe. Until they can build LNG receiving facilities i don't see much relief for them. Who could have ever predicted it, right?

This is almost precisely the position the left would have us in as well but it isn't going to ever happen imo.

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Why do you say that? Though certainly want to believe it. You think enough people have figured out that all the problems come from Left politicians and activists and are going to cast them out in the future one way or another?

Nasreddin said:

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This causes me deep joy. To see leftists suffer from their own folly is so sweet...it's so choice..if you have the means..blah blah Ferris bueller

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It's kind of funny that the far right pines for European immigration to the extent we have to let anyone in, but otherwise roots against them for being too liberal.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-laments-immigration-from-s-hole-countries-in-oval-office-negotiations.amp

Nasreddin said:

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This causes me deep joy. To see leftists suffer from their own folly is so sweet...it's so choice..if you have the means..blah blah Ferris bueller

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I'm happy about it too, but seeing the idiot leftists suffer is secondary. The big victory is seeing the moronic climate policies completely failing to support modern society over there will hopefully squash efforts to do the same here. While our enviromorons here will continue to push, if Europe destroys itself with this madness then they will lose momentum for the same here.

zoneag said:

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Nasreddin said:

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This causes me deep joy. To see leftists suffer from their own folly is so sweet...it's so choice..if you have the means..blah blah Ferris bueller

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I'm happy about it too, but seeing the idiot leftists suffer is secondary. The big victory is seeing the moronic climate policies completely failing to support modern society over there will hopefully squash efforts to do the same here. While our enviromorons here will continue to push, if Europe destroys itself with this madness then they will lose momentum for the same here.

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Or give us the leverage to stop it forcefully and it be understood why.

People up in North Wales UK dgaf. Some of the houses up there are still running on coal fired furnaces.

Theres also a lot of houses in UK that have pre-paid electric.

You got to go down to a Kiosk and recharge a usb stick that you put in the meter.

I say it because we've been afforded too much freedom and independence over the yrs and I don't believe the toothpaste can be put back in the tube here. WEF bull**** can be sold to Euros but the proposition was always dicey here and I think the cat is out of the bag.

We have our own domestic energy sources and people are ultimately going to demand they be used . Climate change is way down on most American's list of concerns and rightfully so because it's mostly a sham.

Good Morning from #Germany, which is heading toward an electricity crisis. The 1y ahead power price has skyrocketed to almost €1,000 per megawatt hour. The electricity price has risen by 720% ytd. Such increases will bankrupt many energy-intensive firms. pic.twitter.com/UI7RYTpJ61

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 27, 2022

Gosh. Imagine if the US filled that void as a valued partner to our EU cousins.