[This discussion should be on another thread. Your original post was on gas to Germany being cut off, and the discussion that ensued was related to the economic consequences of the war. Let's keep this thread for that discussion, and have the discussion regarding aid to Ukraine on another thread--Staff]

Germany also trying to protect investments by cozying up to China. Their head of state will visit China this month to shore up relations. As the host says, who knew that companies who built cars for Nazis would be comfortable with building cars for dictators guilty of human rights abuses? Germany really makes some crappy foreign policy decisions.

Heading to Germany in a couple weeks. Do I need to bring a jacket ?

NEW - France's glass manufacturer Duralex suspends operation for 5 months due to surging electricity bills.

"Our bill (for gas and electricity) has gone from 3 to 13 million euros per year, or 46% of our turnover," the CEO of Duralex said. pic.twitter.com/HwHErZTGbA

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) November 3, 2022

And then suddenly for no reason at all 1st world countries lost the capacity for generating reliable electricity https://t.co/anuUi5eGyj

— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) November 3, 2022

The strategy to survive the winter in Europe is for industry to take a 5 month break. Another short term sell of the future move. Im guessing whichever nation has their world cup team knocked out first revolts first between Germany, UK and France.

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Germany Preparing For Emergency Cash Deliveries, Bank Runs And "Aggressive Discontent" Ahead Of Winter Power Cuts


As Reuters reports citing four sources, German authorities have stepped up preparations for emergency cash deliveries in case of a blackout (or rather blackouts) to keep the economy running, as the nation braces for possible power cuts arising from the war in Ukraine. The plans include the Bundesbank hoarding extra billions to cope with a surge in demand, as well as "possible limits on withdrawals", one of the people said. And if you think crypto investors are angry when they can't access their digital tokens in a bankrupt exchange, just wait until you see a German whose cash has just been locked out.

Officials and banks are looking not only at origination (i.e., money-printing) but also at distribution, discussing for example priority fuel access for cash transporters, according to other sources commenting on preparations that accelerated in recent weeks after Russia throttled gas supplies.

Although German authorities have publicly played down the likelihood of a blackout and bank runs - for obvious reasons - the discussions show both how seriously they take the threat and how they struggle to prepare for potential crippling power outages caused by soaring energy costs or even sabotage. They also underscore the widening ramifications of the Ukraine war for Germany, which has for decades relied on affordable Russian energy and now faces double-digit inflation and a threat of disruption from fuel and energy shortages.

As everyone familiar with the recent history of the Wimar Republic Germany knows, access to cash is of special concern for Germans, who value the security and anonymity it offers, and who tend to use it more than other Europeans, with some still hoarding Deutschmarks replaced by euros more than two decades ago.

According to a recent Bundesbank study, roughly 60% of everyday German purchases are paid in cash, and Germans, on average, withdrew more than 6,600 euros annually chiefly from cash machines.

And here is the punchline: a parliamentary report a decade ago warned of "discontent" and "aggressive altercations" in case citizens were unable to get their hands on cash in a blackout. Translation: in case of cash withdrawal halts, German society may very well tear itself apart.


If a blackout struck, one option for policymakers could be to limit the amount of cash individuals withdraw, said one of the people. Needless to say, that would be a very bad option for Germany, and for fiat in general (after all, if the FTX bankruptcy is a black eye for crypto, what can one say about fiat if one of the world's most advanced economies limits access to cash). The Bundesbank processes cash moving through Germany's shops and economy, removing fakes and keeping circulation orderly. Its massive stocks make it ready for any spike in demand, that person said.

One weakness that planning exposed involves security firms that transport money from the central bank to ATMs and banks. The industry, which includes Brinks and Loomis is not fully covered by law guiding priority access to fuel and telecommunications during a blackout, according to the industry organization BDGW.

"There are big loopholes," said Andreas Paulick, BDGW director. Armoured vehicles would have to line up at petrol stations like everyone else, he said. The organization hosted a meeting last week with central bank officials and lawmakers to press its case.

"We must preventively tackle the realistic scenario of a blackout," Paulick said. "It would be totally naive to not talk about this at a time like now."


Meanwhile, another Reuters source notes that German financial regulators worry that banks are not fully prepared for major power outages and view it as a new, previously unforeseen risk. Banks consider a full-scale blackout "improbable", according to Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft, the financial sector's umbrella organization. But banks nevertheless are "in contact with the relevant ministries and authorities" to plan for such a scenario, especially since anything banks say is "improbable" tends to happen rather regularly. It said finance should be considered as critical infrastructure if energy is rationed.

At times politics can get in the way of blackout planning. In Frankfurt, Germany's banking capital, one city council member proposed requiring it to present a blackout plan by Nov. 17. The politician, Markus Fuchs of the right-wing AfD party, told the council it would be irresponsible not to plan for one. But the other parties rejected the proposal, accusing Fuchs and his party of inciting panic.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-preparing-emergency-cash-deliveries-bank-runs-ahead-winter-power-cuts

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[url=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-preparing-emergency-cash-deliveries-bank-runs-ahead-winter-power-cuts][/url]
Winter is here.

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According to a recent Bundesbank study, roughly 60% of everyday German purchases are paid in cash, and Germans, on average, withdrew more than 6,600 euros annually chiefly from cash machines.

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That's interesting. Wonder how CBDC is going to go there.

German Disaster Official Recommends Stockpiling 'Several Crates' Of Water, Canned Food

The head of Germany's Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief (BBK), Ralph Tiesler, has warned citizens to prepare for short-term power outages, particularly in January and February, and to stock up on rations in advance

"We have to assume that there will be blackouts this winter. By that, I mean a regional and temporary interruption in the power supply. The cause will not only be energy shortages, but also the targeted, temporary shutdown of the networks by the operators, with the aim of protecting the networks and not endangering the overall supply," Tiesler told the news outlet Welt am Sonntag, adding that local authorities in several German municipalities are preparing for the possibility of blackouts, and have developed 'precise plans' that include procuring emergency generators to support the system

Primarily water, several crates, and canned food. That would be enough for ten days. That's what my agency recommends… Our message is: prepare in the first place. Be prepared for possible crises, don't assume that everything will be readily available all the time," Tiesler stated, adding that residents should also purchase battery-powered radios and candles.

That said, some municipalities are not prepared - and despite German gas storage facilities being near capacity, experts don't think the stockpile will be enough to last the country through the winter due to a lack of new supply from Russia.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/german-official-recommends-stockpiling-several-crates-water-canned-food-winter

https://www.bbk.bund.de/EN/Prepare-for-disasters/Personal-Preparedness/Stockpiling/stockpiling_node.html

There's also the issue of affordability. Just because they have gas, they paid an arm and a leg for it.

It's a compounded situation.

On Top of Record Inflation and Energy Shortages, Germany is Now Looking at Meat Shortages Thanks to Government Regulations

Die Welt, citing the German Meat Industry Association (VDF), reported this week that within the next four to six months Germany will face a meat shortage, and prices will skyrocket.

Hubert Kelliger, a VDF board member and head of group sales at meat seller Westfleisch said, "In four, five, six months we will have gaps on the shelves."

Pork is expected to experience the worst shortages. The issues in meat supply are due to Berlin insisting on reducing the numbers of livestock by 50% to reduce global warming emissions. Experts are warning this policy will result in mass shutdown of meat-producing companies, and that will produce a 40% rise in the price of meat.

Analysts also warn that the reduction in meat production will also reduce the supply of natural fertilizer, which will cause follow-on shortages in vegetable yields, and concomitant rises in the cost of producing and supplying vegetables, due to the high costs of artificial fertilizers, which are dependent on natural gas as a feedstock for the production of the ammonia which is converted into urea. Both situations will worsen an already untenable food crisis and inflation-driven cost of living crisis in Germany.

Meat industry experts note that although Germany has seen a surge in veganism and vegetarianism over the last few years, over 90% of the population still eats meat, and these costs will hit them hard.

Currently the biggest meat importer in Europe, Germany has already been relying more and more on meat imports instead of domestic production, with the percentages of meat supplied by imports growing aggressively these last few months.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/816158/

I've been following the deindustrialization of the west for a while.

Thread:https://t.co/OK3jfLxxTE

— Zero Rekt (@Z3r0An0n) November 30, 2022

World biggest chemicals company PERMANENTLY "downsizing" in Europe.https://t.co/FNUU0ubeIf

— Zero Rekt (@Z3r0An0n) November 7, 2022

European energy prices visualized.
The "deindustrial" revolution.https://t.co/ULN6kQecQz

— Zero Rekt (@Z3r0An0n) November 29, 2022

Digital ID and vaccine passports are the beginning of a ‘social credit system’ where “Europe is turning into China” says Eva Vlaardingerbroek @EvaVlaar pic.twitter.com/40H14NqbUZ

— James Melville (@JamesMelville) November 22, 2022

Giving up on more of their green delusions, they also just yesterday signed a 15 year LNG deal with Qatar. The important thing is that they aren't extracting any of their own LNG, I think, for Gaia.

Energy/Food/Defense...they think they can just import it. But as these countries deindustrilize what exactly are they making to sustain their economies?

In the same path most European nations did not devote enough of their GDP to defense as they lived under the US umbrella of protection, they're now moving more of the rest of the economies under our protection.

To which they will scream were not doing enough to reduce ag output due to reasons. While at the same time making themselves more dependent.

Meanwhile the elites lifestyles won't change as they will be powered and well fed. Screw the peons.

Good Morning from #Germany, where supermarket prices keep rising. German Food CPI jumped 21% YoY in Nov, the highest food price #inflation since the start of the statistic & way higher than in other Eurozone countries. In #Italy, food inflation is just 14% & in #Spain 16%. pic.twitter.com/s8Rn5CzV5d

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 30, 2022

JUST....

The main concern, just like energy, is as they cut their own throats, there will be demands for US exports...as supply here is constrained prices will hike.

Global commodities and all.

If wheat in Ukraine isn't planted in the spring, along with reduced fertilizer, crow size will also be reduced.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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The main concern, just like energy, is as they cut their own throats, there will be demands for US exports...as supply here is constrained prices will hike.

Global commodities and all.

If wheat in Ukraine isn't planted in the spring, along with reduced fertilizer, crow size will also be reduced.

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Good thing we don't eat crow around here.

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Volkswagen's CEO warned this week that manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles in the European Union will be "practically unviable" if leaders fail to rein in ballooning energy costs.

"Unless we manage to reduce energy prices in Germany and Europe quickly and reliably," Thomas Schfer wrote in a Monday LinkedIn post, "investments in energy-intensive production or new battery cell factories in Germany and the EU will be practically unviable."

"I am very concerned about the current development regarding investments in the industry's transformation," he said. "This needs to be urgently prioritized unbureaucratically, consistently, and quickly."

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/volkswagen-ceo-says-building-ev-batteries-europe-practically-unviable-soaring-energy-costs

Ironic considering they are all in on ESG and those very policies are making it impossible to achieve ESG goals.

NASAg03 said:

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Quote:

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Volkswagen's CEO warned this week that manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles in the European Union will be "practically unviable" if leaders fail to rein in ballooning energy costs.

"Unless we manage to reduce energy prices in Germany and Europe quickly and reliably," Thomas Schfer wrote in a Monday LinkedIn post, "investments in energy-intensive production or new battery cell factories in Germany and the EU will be practically unviable."

"I am very concerned about the current development regarding investments in the industry's transformation," he said. "This needs to be urgently prioritized unbureaucratically, consistently, and quickly."

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https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/volkswagen-ceo-says-building-ev-batteries-europe-practically-unviable-soaring-energy-costs

Ironic considering they are all in on ESG and those very policies are making it impossible to achieve ESG goals.

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Simple answer: Then don't focus on something that is this tenuous and risky just to hit some arbitrary virtue signal goal. My god.

'Greenland Block' Could Pour Arctic Air Across EU In First Proper Test Of Power Grids

Temperatures across Northwest Europe are set to dive well below average for the first half of December as an Arctic blast will be the first real test for the energy-stricken continent's power systems.

Bloomberg data shows average temperatures will begin sliding Wednesday under a 30-year trendline of about 40 degrees Fahrenheit to 27 degrees by the midpoint of December. This means that temperatures will be 10 degrees below the historical average, a sure sign that heating demand will rapidly increase.

Evening, a very nice ECMWF model mean this evening, looking very poised looking at this, nice block of high pressure up to Greenland, certainly very poised for from a cold potential perspective for #Europe and the #US! #winteriscoming 1/2 pic.twitter.com/OkdjVHVMFZ

— WEATHER/ METEO WORLD (@StormchaserUKEU) November 27, 2022

Winter is here.....

Meanwhile at home …

Heating costs doubled. Up $2 a day over last year w/ same usage.

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Say goodbye Germany, then the rest of the EU

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Goodbye Germany, and Belgium, Wales, and Denmark. [/World Cup]

Just wait another year or three until the Dutch have decimated their production. World's 3rd or 4th largest ag exporter, right by Germany, busy crushing their agricultural industry to reduce nitrogen run off.

The Dutch resisted the Germans in WW1 and 2 but today are wholly on board politically with the WEF folks like Gates/Merkel etc. Food prices in Europe will absolutely skyrocket this year well past something like 20 percent when the energy costs are combined with the food shortage/cuts in production.

It will impact us too but I think people who vote for 'social' democrats for decades deserve some hard times. Burn some fire wood for heat, greta fan boys and girls. Oh wait, even Greta is disappointed now. Haha!

Kind of interesting tightrope being walked.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/02/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

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Diplomats from the European Union agreed on Friday to set a top price of $60 per barrel for Russian oil cargoes, according to Andrzej Sados, Poland's ambassador to the bloc and a key negotiator of the policy, as well as other E.U. diplomats and officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the media. The policy, devised by the Group of 7 industrialized nations and their allies, aims to limit Russia's revenue while averting a global oil shock.
. . .
Talks to set the cap in Brussels were contentious, spanning more than a week. An E.U. embargo on the vast majority of Russian oil imports kicks in on Dec. 5, so the price would apply to buyers outside the region.

The price cap would lock in an existing discount on Russian crude compared with alternatives from other parts of the world. At $60 per barrel, the cap is a little lower than major buyers of Russian oil, like China and India, currently pay, but would not apply if buyers ship and insure the cargoes with companies from countries outside of the group imposing the cap.

It is unlikely to drastically reduce Russia's oil revenues, which are critical to its war effort in Ukraine.

E.U. diplomats also agreed to launch another round of sanctions talks this weekend, with a view to imposing new restrictions on the Russian economy and key individuals. The promise was key to clinching the deal on the price cap, as several hard-line pro-Ukraine European nations, led by Poland, see the price cap as not sufficiently damaging to Russia's export revenues.

Poland also successfully negotiated a regular review of the price cap, to ensure that it tracks the market closely.
. . .
The cap will come with soft-touch enforcement. Under the system, buyers could continue purchasing Russian crude provided that they pay less than the agreed-upon maximum price. The plan places the burden of imposing and policing the price cap on the businesses that help sell the oil: global shipping and insurance companies, which are mostly based in Europe.

European maritime businesses, such as tanker companies and insurance firms, will be permitted to facilitate the transport of Russian crude outside the bloc only if the shipment complies with the price cap. In other words, it will be left up to these companies to ensure that the Russian oil they are transporting or insuring has been sold at or below the capped price; otherwise, they could be held legally liable for violating sanctions.

Russia has repeatedly said it will ignore the policy and refuse to sell oil under the price-cap system. But some 55 percent of the tankers that transport Russian oil out of the country are Greek-owned, according to maritime data and analysis by the Institute of International Finance, and the main insurers for these cargoes are based in the European Union and Britain. Companies in other parts of the world offer such services, and Russia uses them, but switching all of its exports to alternative providers would probably be more expensive and less secure for buyers.

The cap reflects what American officials have said is their primary goal: to keep millions of barrels of Russian oil flowing to the global market as a new wave of European sanctions on Russian oil exports takes effect, avoiding a sudden contraction in supply on global markets that could send gasoline and heating fuel prices soaring in the United States and around the world and make already high inflation even worse.
. . .

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Faustus said:

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Kind of interesting tightrope being walked.

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It's definitely a rope.....



Watching the Russians react to this is going to be interesting.

Destroy NATO, UN and WHO. The world is better off with out the globalist arms running warmongering NATO and the globalist death squads UN & WHO.

hot take

Excellent description of the German energy situation. And the hypocrisy involved. ⬇️ https://t.co/IHOKGsmT8s

— Björn Peters (@BjrnPeters3) December 2, 2022

Germany to exit European energy treaty in order to make it easier to shutter fossil fuel plants without compensation.

With the recent announcement of a 90% 'windfall profits' tax on energy companies, the German left is rushing to turn Germany communist.https://t.co/e37BKdjV80

— Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) November 30, 2022

Oh germany...

Lol ...... 🤡🌎

Imagine California and those countries talking about banning Gas/Diesel engine cars.

This is your future. pic.twitter.com/AWo3Gi20Ej

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) December 3, 2022

Germany 🇩🇪 sold Europe to Russia with their reliance on Russia for gas and NOW they have decided to run their 5G infrastructure on China’s Huawei. Germany’s leadership continues to make the worst possible decisions for their own national security. #Germany #China #Russia 1/2 https://t.co/ezutBqrS9o

— 🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦 (@Jkylebass) December 2, 2022

Germany racing to the bottom to be the vassal state of China AND Russia. Hard to believe that they could get things this wrong.

— 🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇦 (@Jkylebass) December 2, 2022

The Netherlands are currently saying "hold my beer" in this race to the bottom, but yeah. They used to be somewhat competent at running a country. Amazing.

GERMANY - is to comply almost immediately with the EU directive to end fertilisers, following the Netherlands

First it was energy and now it’s food.

The Net Zero con will leave millions of citizens dependent on state handouts. It isn’t a theory it’s an Agenda. pic.twitter.com/NfkxgoK6Uc

— Bernie's Tweets (@BernieSpofforth) December 4, 2022

What in the ever loving ****.

The US should not send any more calories to Europe than prior. This weird NIMBY with the expectations of simply buying their caloric shortfall from the US.

Same with NG. If they're not building their own supply, local supply shouldn't be sent. I just filled 2 propane tanks for $3.77.