texagbeliever said:

---

74OA said:

---

The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

---

This is like spiking the football down by 10 in the 4th quarter.

Also volume is important. If large volume bought up the price of gas and small volume is selling off then prices havent "leveled off". What matters is what price of gas will consumers be paying for. If you lock in a contract to pay $200/MMBTU and the market falls to $100 you are still paying $200.

---

It's simply says that things are not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

It doesn't say that. It doesn't say anything. I'm not trying to be pessimistic just want people to be aware that the chart has little value. Let's see what happens when early cold front in October blows in and everyone panics again.

Energy prices double or trippling is still not a good thing.

IDK how that won't lead to runaway inflation.

agent-maroon said:

---

Pompous lectures from the West vs outright lies and targeting civilians from the rus.

Not that hard to choose the lesser of the two evils here...

---

I reject both evils. I chose option 3: Good

MuchosPollos said:

---

agent-maroon said:

---

Pompous lectures from the West vs outright lies and targeting civilians from the rus.

Not that hard to choose the lesser of the two evils here...

---

I reject both evils. I chose option 3: Good

---

Cool. Just remember that here in the real world the stories sometimes don't have any heroes

74OA said:

---

The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

---

Price might be coming down but they have lost 40% of the natural gas supply into Europe. Thats a physical reality.

What we are witnessing is the derivative markets getting destroyed in Europe. The EU and ECB are desperately trying to paper over the broken markets using computer trading, liquidity injections to brokers/banks and flat out money printing (which is largely inflationary).

Paper Markets vs. Physical Reality is the real battle. How long can the EU keep its populations under control with market manipulation, messaging and narrative while they freeze in their homes?

I guess we will see if Putin decides to use other commodities as weapons. Gasoline, crude oil, diesel and food are next on the menu in September/October.

Beyond that a gold back digital currency that the BRICS use to settle trade. Every dollar taken off the market to settle international trade increases inflation back home.

Kinda sucks when a NATO ally and the country your currency relies on for its value bail out on your financial system......

Quote:

---

Why are countries leaving the western sphere of influence to join with Russia and China ?

Just over two weeks after Russian state media announced that Iran and Argentina filed their official applications to join BRICS, alliance President Purnima Anand revealed that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt began the process of making the same move.

Among the three, which have a combined population of around 220 million people, Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters (the largest in 2020), accounting for 11% of the world's petroleum liquid production and holding 15% of the world's oil reserves. It has recently announced that it will attempt to boost its oil production from 10 to 13 million barrels per day.

https://impakter.com/brics-expansion-five-new-members-in-2023/

---

Quote:

---

Argentina Formally Requests China to Join BRICS

The Argentine ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja, announced Wednesday that last week Fernandez sent a missive to his Chinese counterpart, who holds the 'pro tempore' presidency of BRICS, to formally request Argentina's inclusion in the bloc of emerging countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Argentina-Formally-Requests-China-to-Join-BRICS-20220908-0004.html

---

MuchosPollos said:

---

74OA said:

---

The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

---

Price might be coming down but they have lost 40% of the natural gas supply into Europe. Thats a physical reality.

What we are witnessing is the derivative markets getting destroyed in Europe. The EU and ECB are desperately trying to paper over the broken markets using computer trading, liquidity injections to brokers/banks and flat out money printing (which is largely inflationary).

Paper Markets vs. Physical Reality is the real battle. How long can the EU keep its populations under control with market manipulation, messaging and narrative while they freeze in their homes?

I guess we will see if Putin decides to use other commodities as weapons. Gasoline, crude oil, diesel and food are next on the menu in September/October.

Beyond that a gold back digital currency that the BRICS use to settle trade. Every dollar taken off the market to settle international trade increases inflation back home.

Kinda sucks when a NATO ally and the country your currency relies on for its value bail out on your financial system......

Quote:

---

Why are countries leaving the western sphere of influence to join with Russia and China ?

Just over two weeks after Russian state media announced that Iran and Argentina filed their official applications to join BRICS, alliance President Purnima Anand revealed that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt began the process of making the same move.

Among the three, which have a combined population of around 220 million people, Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters (the largest in 2020), accounting for 11% of the world's petroleum liquid production and holding 15% of the world's oil reserves. It has recently announced that it will attempt to boost its oil production from 10 to 13 million barrels per day.

https://impakter.com/brics-expansion-five-new-members-in-2023/

---

Quote:

---

Argentina Formally Requests China to Join BRICS

The Argentine ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja, announced Wednesday that last week Fernandez sent a missive to his Chinese counterpart, who holds the 'pro tempore' presidency of BRICS, to formally request Argentina's inclusion in the bloc of emerging countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Argentina-Formally-Requests-China-to-Join-BRICS-20220908-0004.html

---

---

It clearly says that things are simply not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

74OA said:

---

MuchosPollos said:

---

74OA said:

---

The Russians have shot their bolt in terms of using the gas weapon: things are still very bad but not getting worse and they are beginning to get better. End of energy fear porn https://t.co/vURZOkHDE1

— François Heisbourg (@FHeisbourg) September 12, 2022

---

Price might be coming down but they have lost 40% of the natural gas supply into Europe. Thats a physical reality.

What we are witnessing is the derivative markets getting destroyed in Europe. The EU and ECB are desperately trying to paper over the broken markets using computer trading, liquidity injections to brokers/banks and flat out money printing (which is largely inflationary).

Paper Markets vs. Physical Reality is the real battle. How long can the EU keep its populations under control with market manipulation, messaging and narrative while they freeze in their homes?

I guess we will see if Putin decides to use other commodities as weapons. Gasoline, crude oil, diesel and food are next on the menu in September/October.

Beyond that a gold back digital currency that the BRICS use to settle trade. Every dollar taken off the market to settle international trade increases inflation back home.

Kinda sucks when a NATO ally and the country your currency relies on for its value bail out on your financial system......

Quote:

---

Why are countries leaving the western sphere of influence to join with Russia and China ?

Just over two weeks after Russian state media announced that Iran and Argentina filed their official applications to join BRICS, alliance President Purnima Anand revealed that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt began the process of making the same move.

Among the three, which have a combined population of around 220 million people, Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest crude oil exporters (the largest in 2020), accounting for 11% of the world's petroleum liquid production and holding 15% of the world's oil reserves. It has recently announced that it will attempt to boost its oil production from 10 to 13 million barrels per day.

https://impakter.com/brics-expansion-five-new-members-in-2023/

---

Quote:

---

Argentina Formally Requests China to Join BRICS

The Argentine ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja, announced Wednesday that last week Fernandez sent a missive to his Chinese counterpart, who holds the 'pro tempore' presidency of BRICS, to formally request Argentina's inclusion in the bloc of emerging countries comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Argentina-Formally-Requests-China-to-Join-BRICS-20220908-0004.html

---

---

It clearly says that things are simply not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

---

74OA: the house isn't on fire anymore
Other posters: yeah because the house is burnt down.
74OA: why can't you be happy there isn't a fire!

Gas prices in Europe rise precipitously:

THE COLLAPSE OF THE WEST IS IMMINENT, PUTIN HAS WON!

Gas prices in Europe fall precipitously:

This doesn't mean anything at all.

GAC06 said:

---

Gas prices in Europe rise precipitously:

THE COLLAPSE OF THE WEST IS IMMINENT, PUTIN HAS WON!

Gas prices in Europe fall precipitously:

This doesn't mean anything at all.

---

Here is how I think damage has already been done. (this is based on my experience managing risk for a Retail Energy provider and familiarity with sleeves and collateral risks). I need to be less snarky, apologies.

1. Prices start to run.
2. Banks / Collateral providers pressure smaller businesses to hedge their risk.
3. Smaller companies are forced to cover their collateral exposures (this causes a short squeeze of sorts).
4. Banks sell high prices to smaller companies so they can mitigate their risk.
5. Banks later cover the high price open positions a few weeks later after all of the smaller businesses covered their risk and demand is dried up.

Banks/Big money wins. They make money while consumers are left paying the higher prices (since these are regulated utilities they will be made whole).

Thanks for that, but only hysterical zerohedge takes are allowed here

Awesome. Yet more countries in the Western Hemisphere, that we continue to abjectly ignore, joining China.

Quote:

---

It's simply says that things are not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

---

Isn't this like telling 500 million Europeans they all have HIV but at least its not AIDS?

I'll give you credit for trying to be positive but let's be clear, Europe is rapidly spiraling out of control because the US (Obama Admin) decided it needed to pressure Russia via Ukraine starting way back in 2014 (all while our esteemed VP installed his crack head son onto the board of an energy company to take all sorts of kick backs and payoffs).


This could have all been avoided. And yes, things are going to get worse, much worse (unless people in power come to their senses now to work out a peace plan).

Pin this thread. Let's see where we are in eight weeks (November 8). We can figure out if things are better or worse then.

MuchosPollos said:

---

Quote:

---

It's simply says that things are not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

---

Isn't this like telling 500 million Europeans they all have HIV but at least its not AIDS?

I'll give you credit for trying to be positive but let's be clear, Europe is rapidly spiraling out of control because the US (Obama Admin) decided it needed to pressure Russia via Ukraine starting way back in 2014 (all while our esteemed VP installed his crack head son onto the board of an energy company to take all sorts of kick backs and payoffs).


This could have all been avoided. And yes, things are going to get worse, much worse (unless people in power come to their senses now to work out a peace plan).

Pin this thread. Let's see where we are in eight weeks (November 8). We can figure out if things are better or worse then.

---

So, you're saying we'd be better off if we would have encouraged Putin's imperial fantasies? You're going to have to explain that, because it makes no sense. Most people would tell you that the problem back in 2014 was that we didn't do enough to convince Putin that aggression towards his neighbors would come at a cost.

GAC06 said:

---

Thanks for that, but only hysterical zerohedge takes are allowed here

---

via Reuters.....

Quote:

---

Germans switch to costly fan heaters as gas shortage fears bite

Germans could overload their power grid as they switch to inefficient electric heaters in an attempt to avoid gas shortages this winter, utilities warned in an article published on Sunday.

Households have been stocking up on electric fan heaters, including portable devices, sales figures show, amid fears that Russia could cut or further limit gas supplies in the wake of its war in Ukraine.

The managing director of the German association of energy and water utilities, BDEW, told daily Handelsblatt that customers could be left with even heftier power bills if they do not use the devices sparingly.


"And they can overburden the power grids, for instance when many households switch on their fan heaters in one part of town at the same time on a cold winter's night," BDEW director Kerstin Andreae was quoted as saying.

She said she understood people's fears of cold homes, but some of the coping mechanisms could backfire.

The German government has pledged that industrial users would be the first to be rationed in case of a shortfall and that private households would be spared any cuts.

The president of Germany's federal network agency also said local power blackouts could result from peaks in fan heater use, according to a Saturday interview with newspaper Tagesspiegel.



https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germans-switch-costly-fan-heaters-gas-shortage-fears-bite-2022-09-11/

---

Zerohedge headline = Germans are stuck between a rock and a blackout.


BTW forecast low of 48'F in Frankfurt and Berlin this Friday....... cold enough for a heater or should they sack up and suffer a little more?

Quote:

---

Most people would tell you that the problem back in 2014 was that we didn't do enough to convince Putin that aggression towards his neighbors would come at a cost.

---

Noticed you didn't mention the whole Biden corruption thing.


Back then the EU knew this was a bad idea. What was our gov'ts response.

Quote:

---

The video was first picked up by the Kiev Post. The Ukrainian paper notes that Nuland's salty language seems to come from frustration with the EU's indecision over its role in the political unrest. They summarize that part of the call:

Quote:

---

Before the call ends, Nuland tells Pyatt she has "one more wrinkle" for him.

Commenting on European pressure put on Yanukovych or lack thereof she explains that she has spoken to the United Nations and has gotten an official there who said that Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, agreed to send someone to Ukraine to "help glue this thing and to have the UN glue it."

She adds: "And you know, **** the EU."

"Exactly," Pyatt replies. "And I think we got to do something to make it stick together, because you can be sure that if it does start to gain altitude the Russians will be working behind the scenes to torpedo it. Let me work on Klitschko, and I think we should get a Western personality to come out here (to Ukraine) and midwife this thing,'' he adds.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/state-department-official-caught-tape-saying-f-eu/357812/


Link to full transcript...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957


Nuland: OK... one more wrinkle for you Geoff. [A click can be heard] I can't remember if I told you this, or if I only told Washington this, that when I talked to Jeff Feltman [United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs] this morning, he had a new name for the UN guy Robert Serry did I write you that this morning?

• Jonathan Marcus: An intriguing insight into the foreign policy process with work going on at a number of levels: Various officials attempting to marshal the Ukrainian opposition; efforts to get the UN to play an active role in bolstering a deal; and (as you can see below) the big guns waiting in the wings - US Vice-President Joe Biden clearly being lined up to give private words of encouragement at the appropriate moment.

Pyatt: Yeah I saw that.

Nuland: OK. He's now gotten both Serry and [UN Secretary General] Ban Ki-moon to agree that Serry could come in Monday or Tuesday. So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and to have the UN help glue it and, you know, **** the EU.

---

---

Obama/Biden orchestrated all of this......

twk said:

---

MuchosPollos said:

---

Quote:

---

It's simply says that things are not getting any worse. Learn to take good news.

---

Isn't this like telling 500 million Europeans they all have HIV but at least its not AIDS?

I'll give you credit for trying to be positive but let's be clear, Europe is rapidly spiraling out of control because the US (Obama Admin) decided it needed to pressure Russia via Ukraine starting way back in 2014 (all while our esteemed VP installed his crack head son onto the board of an energy company to take all sorts of kick backs and payoffs).


This could have all been avoided. And yes, things are going to get worse, much worse (unless people in power come to their senses now to work out a peace plan).

Pin this thread. Let's see where we are in eight weeks (November 8). We can figure out if things are better or worse then.

---

So, you're saying we'd be better off if we would have encouraged Putin's imperial fantasies? You're going to have to explain that, because it makes no sense. Most people would tell you that the problem back in 2014 was that we didn't do enough to convince Putin that aggression towards his neighbors would come at a cost.

---

America could "win" this war in 6 months. Just renounce ESG nonsense and go HAM on drilling and production. Then pay billions to OPEC countries to pump a ton of oil into the market. You flood the market with supply and then Russia's economy is really under the gun.

Instead by prolonging the "war" all that happens is Western Europe becomes weaker. America in turn also becomes weaker. Well more acutely the middle class in both regions are under the gun. Which just so happens to be what the progressive and socialists need to further expand their power. What. A. Coincidence.

“Uniper confirmed on Wednesday that one of the options being discussed is the German government taking a “significant majority” stake…”

Source: https://t.co/9B2jQZ5XXV

— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) September 14, 2022

Sort of a hit on the crowd says nations have enough resources and they've broken the Russian energy strangle hold over Europe.

No nation there is in a good position for this winter.

Check out some of these notes/discussions from 2019 about Germany's big push for green energy (leading to coal dependence, deforestation for wind turbines, devastation of bug populations etc.).

WE JUST NEED ANOTHER HALF-TRILLION AND WE SWEAR IT WILL WORK THIS TIMEhttps://t.co/DbEzAHzaiE

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) September 14, 2022

But Merkel made her Euro's off the nordstream 2 approval. I am sure Hunter did too; Xiden waived sanctions on it in exchange for more 'green energy' investments which is just graft for the elitists.

Breaking news: US shale oil bosses have warned that they will not be able to rescue Europe with increased energy supplies this winterhttps://t.co/dgcUS300LN pic.twitter.com/wjlQqgmaqv

— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) September 14, 2022

Energy Rationing Hits the Eiffel Tower as the Paris Landmark Goes Dark to Save Power https://t.co/EyGZhlCoQj

— Ben Owen 🇺🇸🦅 (@hrkbenowen) September 16, 2022

When the Euro goes down the EU trade surplus should go up. But now the Euro is at a record low and the EU trade surplus is crashing. Europe is in deep shit thanks to the US proxy war. This is nothing yet. pic.twitter.com/k4pHJUsbVJ

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 16, 2022

Explain? Someone?

Not an economics person but I'm assuming if the Euro is low, others would want to buy their goods for cheap. But that ain't happening. Their currency is devaluing AND no one wants to buy their goods. Not good.

File5 said:

---

Not an economics person but I'm assuming if the Euro is low, others would want to buy their goods for cheap. But that ain't happening. Their currency is devaluing AND no one wants to buy their goods. Not good.

---

I don't understand the "US proxy war" comment.

And maybe it's not that people don't want to buy EU goods its just you can't produce goods to sell if you don't have energy to to manufacture. If you don't have goods to sell your trade balance is going to suffer.

I think you're on the money, they don't have manufacturing capability right now due to gas shortages. Just putting out there way someone would normally be interested in a lower Euro.

The US proxy war comment implies that the US is propping this whole stalemate up regardless of the EUs best interest because the US can't be seen to lose this, whereas if we weren't then these countries would be forced to accept terms that would be better for their economies, albeit at the expense of Ukraine.

Ah, I understood why their currency is collapsing, and that makes sense why their trade is also collapsing, it's a little hazy on how quickly their manufacturing sector is shutting down, figured they'd still have inventory to sell.

So if energy intensive manufacturing is hitting a brick wall, those people won't be working and all the high costs of living won't be supported by ongoing incomes.

I don't think the Uke war us at a stalemate either. But you are right, the ongoing war is going to destroy economies that were dependent on RU energy. Even if there was a treaty or armistice sign, that doesn't mean the NG taps will open again.

HumpitPuryear said:

---

File5 said:

---

Not an economics person but I'm assuming if the Euro is low, others would want to buy their goods for cheap. But that ain't happening. Their currency is devaluing AND no one wants to buy their goods. Not good.

---

I don't understand the "US proxy war" comment.

And maybe it's not that people don't want to buy EU goods its just you can't produce goods to sell if you don't have energy to to manufacture. If you don't have goods to sell your trade balance is going to suffer.

---

"US proxy war" is the kind of stuff you see from idiots who admire Putin.

Yes, it won't do European manufacturers much good to devalue the euro if they don't have enough energy to maintain production. It's going to be a very difficult winter for Europe in that respect -- perhaps more difficult economically than with regard to keeping people warm enough to survive (if weather forecasts prove accurate).

File5 said:

---

Not an economics person but I'm assuming if the Euro is low, others would want to buy their goods for cheap. But that ain't happening. Their currency is devaluing AND no one wants to buy their goods. Not good.

---

What does Europe produce now anyway? Seriously, I cannot think of anything Europe is known for anymore. Some car manufacturers but that's about it. The rest of their industries are basically worthless.

will25u said:

---

When the Euro goes down the EU trade surplus should go up. But now the Euro is at a record low and the EU trade surplus is crashing. Europe is in deep shit thanks to the US proxy war. This is nothing yet. pic.twitter.com/k4pHJUsbVJ

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) September 16, 2022

---

How is this a US proxy war and not a NATO proxy war?

Or am I just placing too much importance on the wording of a random twit?

twk said:

---

HumpitPuryear said:

---

File5 said:

---

Not an economics person but I'm assuming if the Euro is low, others would want to buy their goods for cheap. But that ain't happening. Their currency is devaluing AND no one wants to buy their goods. Not good.

---

I don't understand the "US proxy war" comment.

And maybe it's not that people don't want to buy EU goods its just you can't produce goods to sell if you don't have energy to to manufacture. If you don't have goods to sell your trade balance is going to suffer.

---

"US proxy war" is the kind of stuff you see from idiots who admire Putin.

Yes, it won't do European manufacturers much good to devalue the euro if they don't have enough energy to maintain production. It's going to be a very difficult winter for Europe in that respect -- perhaps more difficult economically than with regard to keeping people warm enough to survive (if weather forecasts prove accurate).

---

Kim Dot Com is appealing an order directing his extradition to the U.S. He might have a bit of an axe to grind.

But he apparently has a Twitter account so I guess we got to read the guy's hot take. I wonder what other random felons are saying about the war.

NATO proxy war would be correct also too, IMO. But where we go, they go it seems. Does the EU care as much about Ukraine winning as the US does? To me it seems no, especially since EU is reliant on Russian gas, already hurting, and about to have a cold winter. Joe can't be seen to lose another "war" before the midterms at the very least, which aren't very far away thankfully.

File5 said:

---

NATO proxy war would be correct also too, IMO. But where we go, they go it seems. Does the EU care as much about Ukraine winning as the US does? To me it seems no, especially since EU is reliant on Russian gas, already hurting, and about to have a cold winter. Joe can't be seen to lose another "war" before the midterms at the very least, which aren't very far away thankfully.

---

Look, no one has a lower opinion of Biden than me, but you are making the mistake of thinking that the world revolves around the US, sort of like people used to think that the universe revolved around the Earth. European opinion is not monolithic, but the continent has largely owned up the fact that being dependent on Russian gas was a mistake. While their are some folks who are fearful of making it through the short term without Russian gas, in the long run, pretty much everyone over there would like to correct their mistake and not be so vulnerable to Russia. If you think that Biden is calling the shots, then you are severely overestimating his power. The Europeans do not want Russia overrunning its former empire -- not even the Europeans on the Russian payroll want that. The question of what kind of price they are willing to pay to prevent this is yet to be answered, but it's clearly a lot higher price than people would have thought (including Putin) before February 24.

I don't think Biden is calling the shots either, of course I meant his admin/handlers.

I'm not saying the world revolves completely around us...but it's a fact that what we say and do has real influence. We'll just see what happens, if the EU capitulates or holds fast.